Another Revised Cascades . . .

[DMoriarty]

Not to take any spotlight away from Ran's profile, but here in Southern California we have our own Cascades,  the 1999 Bob Cupp, Steve Timm's masterpiece north of Los Angeles in Sylmar.  

Rumor has it that the 4 year old "championship" course will be turned into an executive course, with the rest turned into housing.  

Another testament to the great shape of the golf industry in Southern California!

[THuckaby2]

Whoa!  Interesting...

But is this rumor or fact?

And if so, why turn it into exec instead of just plowing the whole thing for houses?

That could be one cool executive course... lots of room for long, shivas-pleasing par threes... I guess this says it all, but I read this and think of it as a positive.

 

Dave, how can you and I possibly co-exist on this planet, let alone in the same foursome, as we have so enjoyably before?

 

[DMoriarty]

Well Tom, as I said, it was rumor to me.  Whether it is fact remains to be seen.  

Why not plow it all under?   I dont know,  perhaps some of the land is too severe for housing.  Wouldnt want any small children tumbling down the cliffs that are currently called fairways.  

Yes Tom, I agree, this is certainly a positive.  I'll bet the current ownership was making tons of money, but just thought they would try something a little different.

A positive indeed.  The only thing that would be more positive is if they plowed the whole thing under.  Of course neither would equal the now by-gone positive of the course never having been built in the first place.

[THuckaby2]

Great stuff, Dave.
 

This just does kinda illustrate our differences.  Me, I'm looking forward to trying the executive course.  You point out all sorts of very correct negatives.  Hell in the end you are obviously far more "correct" than I am - I'm just a selfish happy golfer who could give a rat's ass what development company makes or loses money - there sure are lots of those!

I guess there really is no need for you to answer in that other thread.  But I do enjoy your prose, and I have a feeling if you wanted to you could come up with something VERY interesting there...

TH

[TEPaul]

David Moriaty said;

"Wouldnt want any small children tumbling down the cliffs that are currently called fairways."

And I say why not David? What's wrong with small children tumbling down cliffs? I say let the little nippers run wild! If they survive it makes better and far more interesting people out of them!  

[DMoriarty]

Tom,

Gee that is funny . . . I thought just recently you were questioning whether the golf course industry was facing any difficulties.

And I say why not David? What's wrong with small children tumbling down cliffs? I say let the little nippers run wild! If they survive it makes better and far more interesting people out of them!  

I am a frequent traveler on the freeway below . . . I dont want them bouncing into traffic and dirtying my windshield. . .

[THuckaby2]

Tom,

Gee that is funny . . . I thought just recently you were questioning whether the golf course industry was facing any difficulties.

[

David  - enough - asked and answered elsewhere.  

[TEPaul]

"I am a frequent traveler on the freeway below . . . I dont want them bouncing into traffic and dirtying my windshield."

Oh Ppssshaw David--you fair weather Californians don't know what dirty windshields are! You should see it here where I am for dirty windshields--this is positively disgusting, far worse than a hord of little nippers bouncing onto your windshield off of cliffs or excessively sloping fairways! I'll send you some of this new super ultra high-powered windshield wiper washer I just bought and you'll be fine!

On second thought, I guess I've never had any mud slides or massive half state brush fires dirtying my windshield. That must be far worse than little bouncing nippers!

[Thomas_Brown]

Dave - I thought you'd be out lobbying for a TPC Valencia dismantling before anything else!

[DMoriarty]

Not lobbying for anything, just gossiping.  But now that you mention it, the back nine at TPC at Valencia would make a fine neighborhood-- the front nine already is a neighborhood.  

[THuckaby2]

David:

I gather that you think the rumored constriction of this awful golf course is a sign of golf's apocalypse.  Or to put it differently, forgiving the exaggeration for effect, this is another sign that golf has lost its way.

Why?

I ask not to be argumentative, and I am not at all saying that it is NOT a sign or evidence of such.  I just have a real hard time grasping this whole concept that golf is dying, obviously.  And if this is a sign of it, I want to know why... Because I can't figure it out... You say yourself this is a course that should never have been built.  Hell I agree - that land there is way better suited for skiing than golf, and oh would that SoCal had some snow!  But built it got, and I'm sure some have achieved some golf enjoyment there.  So is this a case that ANY course constriction/closure is bad for the game?  Hell I can understand that.  But man courses get closed for redevelopment all the time... always have, always will... here's one where it's a GOOD thing!

So what is the deeper meaning here?  I swear, I aim to be educated.  Anyone other than David please feel free to help out also... And no, I have no hidden agendas nor deeper meanings in asking this.  I honestly have a hard time figuring all this out.

Thanks!

[Tom_Ross]

Maybe some of you missed the last 3 years, but industry consolidation after a period of foolish business plans does not necessarily signal the beginning of the end.  Just like other industries, golf courses will need to find ways to become profitable to remain in business.  This may be through consolidation (extinction of some courses) or a more reasonable cost structure (less water, new strains of grass, less bunkering, etc..) or higher greens-fees.  

Getting the business side of golf corrected doesn't mean the game is in decline.  

[THuckaby2]

Tom:

Thanks.  I am VERY removed from the business side of golf.. I just play the game.  So I have no insight here, I am just asking... But it does seem logical to me that courses get closed and redeveloped... just in my limited experience, I have seen that happen many times and it doesn't seem to be happening any more now than it ever has.  But again, that could be just my very limited view here in the SF Bay Area.  So I gather that course closures are increasing... The question to me is this:  is that a sign of golf's apocalypse, or is it normal correction as you seem to state?

And again, I'll stop adding these disclaimers in a bit, but people take me the wrong way here so often, well... please do understand that I have no axe to grind, this is all about reconciliation of what people say v. what I see, and really all about learning.

[Tom_Ross]

TomH,

The business side of golf is always going to go in cycles, and in the next 10-15 years it's going to have another major factor to consider.....the increase in baby boomers retiring.  So you're going to see alot more older golfers wanting to be able to play, and most likely in their neighborhood course.  So you might see some of the courses that close or go bankrupt be re-developed as housing communities or other neighborhood-oriented projects.  

[THuckaby2]

Gotcha.  Thanks TomR.  That makes sense to me.  

BTW, forgive me if this is the 100th time you've been asked this, but...

any relation?

TH

[Tom_Ross]

any relation to whom?  if you mean D.J. Ross, then unfortunately no.  

[Lou_Duran]

Tom Ross,

I bet you that only a relative few courses will be plowed under for alternative uses, and those will be primarily in metro areas where land is scarce and its value extremely high.  What is the strategy for overbuilt markets like Myrtle Beach?  I suspect that pricing, packaging, and heavy promotion will be emphasized more than it already is.  This is good for the consumer, and correctly penalizes those with bad business plans and faulty analyses.

Your observation about the baby boomers is one that might merit some rethinking.  As one myself, I had planned to retire in a year or two.  Unfortunately, the Clinton-Bush economies have pretty much derailed those plans and I may never be able to.  Okay, I may have made a couple minor analytical mistakes assuming that growth stocks would increase at double digit rates ad infinitum, and that Clinton had solved the riddle of the business cycle once and for all.  But, please, give me a break.  I just hope that for the golf industry, and me, things turn around just as quickly as they went south.

BTW, my friends in the assisted care industry are all trying to leave.  Don't they realize that there is a huge bonanza just around the corner?  Or maybe these damned baby boomers just aren't ready to clock-out and begin the process to their demise.  

[THuckaby2]

any relation to whom?  if you mean D.J. Ross, then unfortunately no.  

Yeah, that's what I meant.  But if you say you're related
to Diana, then you just rise in coolness.  

[DMoriarty]

I gather that you think the rumored constriction of this awful golf course is a sign of golf's apocalypse. . . .
Why?

I didnt say it was a sign of the apocalypse, and I certainly didnt say it was a sign of golf's apocalypse.  I sarcastically implied that it was an example of how the SC golf industry is struggling.  While the industry would have us think otherwise, there is a big difference.  

So what does this mean?  Well, for one, (if the rumor is true) it is an example of what Mr. Ross called "consolidation after a period of foolish business plans."  (My emphasis.)  Further, many other courses appear to be in similar shape.  With one obvious exception, most of the new courses I am familiar with are all rumored to be facing tough times, Tierra Rejada, Cascades, Robinson Ranch, and even Lost Canyons are all rumored to be hurting.   If the rumors are tree, then this is a lot of evidence of the fallout from foolish business plans.  

For two, as you already know from previous discussions, I thought and think that, from what I can tell from the outside looking in, the business plans behind these courses were all foolish.  To greater and lesser degrees, the courses were too expensive to build, they moved a huge amount of earth because they are all severe sights, and they are basically cart ball courses for the same reason.   More importantly, whether it be waterfalls, views, fancy clubhouses, real estate, concierge club cleaners, and/or pretty cart girls, they all seem to be about something besides golf (unless of course one views the peripheral industry as "golf.")

So I hope that helps you understand.  

I have a few questions for you.  In past discussions you've indicated that these are supposed to be the types of courses  that the golfing masses have demanded.  If I recall correctly, you've said that the golfing masses could care less about gca and are more concerned with the types of amenities these courses all offer.  

So, if the rumors are true, and these courses are all suffering, then why cant the masses fill the tee sheets, buy the refreshments and merchandise and make turn these courses into economic success stories?  Isnt that how supply and demand is supposed to work?  What gives?

[THuckaby2]

David:

That helps a lot, thanks.

But re your last two paragraphs, as you are wont to do, you are ascribing thoughts to me that are way oversimplified at best, and at worst are contrary to what I think.  Thus I can only respond as follows:

SOME golfers like amenities.
SOME golfers could care less about the "architecture."

SOME courses that are flash over substance like this succeed big time - it has to do with competition in the area, price versus other courses around, tournament access, etc.

SOME courses like this fail.  SOME munis get redeveloped also.  A couple years ago a pretty neat, minimalistic design, very cheap green fee course up here called Oak Ridge closed.  Does this mean that golfers favoring such things couldn't fill the tee sheets / are wrong / don't exist?  Of course not.  What happened there is that the land was worth more as condos then as a golf course, and greed took over.  So the stretch you're making here from the constriction of Cascades to golfers who like amenities not being able to fill tee sheets, etc... Well hell I never said they were the MAJORITY - all I ever said is that they do EXIST, and so to deny them is silly.  And exist they do.

Furthermore, I have the idea, perhaps erroneous, that you think this is all or nothing, as you seem to say here.  I never said that myself.  All I ever got you to try to see is that it's not so easy to say 'Lost Canyons sucks and should be blown up... Tierra Rejada is so awful, it never should have been built..." because there is a whole class of golfers for whom those courses are great, and yes, god forbid, they like them better than Rustic Canyon.  I never said they were the majority, I never said they had good taste, nor did I ever say I agreed with them.  YOU seem to ascribe all these things to me, which is frustrating.  I neither have ever said this, nor do I believe it.

But to disregard their existence is just plain wrong... they are out there... and if Cascades gets constricted, then while I am sad to see any golf course fail, perhaps it is a sign things are turning in the "right" directions and subtance over flash is starting to carry the day - to which I say, GREAT!   But I also do believe that it is a big beautiful golf world, and if a developer wants to build a Tierra Rejada, than I just don't get how it hurts.. there are people who do like the course... in the end if it fails, it's the developers problem... Oh sure, in my perfect world there are way more Rustic Canyons than Tierra Rejadas - but you know what also?  As a consumer, I just don't go to Tierra Rejada!  Those who do, well god love them they're not fighting me for a tee time at Rustic.  Why this is all a bad thing is what I am trying to understand...

And my thinking is that it's not so simple to say what I do - that there is only so much land and money for golf courses, so we ought to fight hard that more Rustics get built instead of Tierras.  But I see little I can do on that front, so while I wish it were so, so long as both types are being built - and damn I see a lot of great courses in teh Rustic mode being built - I just don't see the fight to fight yet.

But I aim to learn, again.

In the end, David, again, I am not the enemy you like to make me out to be.  I'd appreciate a little benefit of the doubt and a lot less assumptions and misconceptions.  Thanks.

TH