Effects on golf of tariffs (not a political thread)

[Thomas Dai]

This is not meant to be a political thread.


How do folks consider golf will be effected by recent US tariff announcements and potential/actual retaliatory tariffs introduced by other countries?


Considerations in relation to aspects such as supply and demand, supply chain, pricing, availability etc etc when it comes to …..


Course maintenance equipment
Irrigation including electrics and control systems
Materials, supplies, workwear, tools and repair components
Personnel including work in overseas countries
Balls
Clubs
Accessories, footwear and clothing
Golf travel.
Etc
Etc
Etc


As mentioned, this is not meant to be a political thread.


Thoughts


Atb

[Niall C]

David


One of Trumps aims is to weaken the dollar so as to help with exports. That may have a bigger bearing on us in the UK than the direct effect of tariffs. Some of the incredible increases in greenfees that we've seen in recent years could very quickly become unsustainable due to more US golfers travelling less or simply staying home because of the exchange rate. I'm not sure that will make a lot of difference to the average club who probably don't see one US golfer from one year to the next but it will probably hit the top courses. Not that they will be going broke, they just won't have the angst of having to decide how to spend the huge surplus.


Niall


ps. ironically one of the biggest losers might be the high end pay and play popular with US golfers eg. Turnberry.

[A.G._Crockett]

I think it's much too early to know, and impossible to assess the long term.  I DO think it's safe to say that golf prices in general, at least for equipment, will go up.  Beyond that, there is near complete uncertainty.
Some key points about the tariffs:


1. The tariffs currently are only on goods, not services.  That is, of course, subject to change.


2. The tariffs are based on the balance of trade in 2024, rather than any trade barriers of other countries, and the US balance of trade with any other country varies year to year even without the tariffs.  So IF the formula being used remains the same, the rates will vary year to year.  There are countries with which the US might have a negative balance of trade one year, then a positive balance of trade the next.  The use of the most recent year, rather than a 5 yr average, for instance, makes it impossible to predict what might happen in 2026.


3. There is now a flat 10% minimum tariff, regardless of the balance of trade with a specific country.


4. Since 1, 2, and 3 above are arbitrary, there is no certainty that the tariffs won't include services in the future, or that the formula will remain the same, or that the 10% number will remain the same.


5. The president has made it clear that he wants to "negotiate" deals with other countries, which is another way in which all of this is subject to change.


6. Retaliatory actions by other countries are also in play; it's not like the US tariffs are operating in a vacuum. One country might choose to negotiate; another might choose to simply retaliate.


7. While I agree with the concept of a "non-political" discussion of the impact of the tariffs, political considerations are a very large part of the picture in this situation.  Should the stock market continue to tank, and/or should inflation reach unacceptable levels, and should the FED respond with higher interest rates, something may have to give.  Even if one believes, like the president, that the tariffs will bring back American manufacturing and middle class jobs, that may not be possible by the next election cycle. The US chooses a new House and one third of the Senate every two years, and since the president's party currently controls both chambers, that means that more Republicans will face reelection questions from voters in 2026.  That is absolutely part of the equation, no matter how the tariffs work out.

[Bernie Bell]

If tariffs restore the hollowed-out US middle class, then one might see a return to Eisenhower-era middle class participation rates with knock-on effects for GCA.  Perhaps a renewed appreciation for the work of the so-called "Dark Ages" architects, and less fawning over more precious work that depends on expensive maintenance and jet fuel.
If, on the other hand, tariffs only increase US wealth disparity, then one might see even more playgrounds of excess, as we beat on, boats against the current.

[cary lichtenstein]

Creating Chaos in the world economic order can lead to unanticipated consequences. It’s like playing with fire and sometimes you burn the whole house down. Congress, not the President has the power to Tariff. The courts will block Trump on Monday or Tuesday with an emergency injunction to the US Supreme Court. China will become more potent thru out the world as it needs new trading partners, new outlets for its manufacturing. The US consumer, the republican voter will find tariffs have raised the specter of inflation all over again. Trump has used up all his political capital with this move before his first 100 days are even up. He has angered world leaders, there will always be unintended consequences. Wine drinks will notice their favorite wines are more expensive, my Porsche will be more expensive, houses costs will increase, he if fiddle fucking with the world’s economy.

[Peter Sayegh]

As of today, pretty simple for me.
Retirement fund has taken a big hit...certainly not looking to book a "destination" golf trip right now.
I'd like to know how much the tariffs may effect maintenance costs (if any) short/long term.

[Rob Marshall]

If the markets continue to drop golf will suffer but golfers will gain as initiation fees and tee demand drop. However, maybe wishful thinking but I think this just brings everyone to the table to negotiate what's best for the US and the countries around the world.


Interestingly enough i just saw a younger Nance Pelosi in 1996 talking about why we should increase tariff's on China. The trade deficit with them was 34 Billion in 1995. Also saw President Regan talking about how a tariff war won't work.


Down here in South West Florida the cost of joining a club is still climbing and the waiting lists are still growing as is my frustration of sitting on a list.....


Public courses in my area are not good and way over priced and FULL.

[Tim Martin]

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that this thread will not end well.

[Peter Sayegh]

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that this thread will not end well.

Sadly, I agree with you.
Hopefully, some people with "boots in the ground" will reply.

[Craig Sweet]

I remember a sticker on a club I bought listed the countries that made the shaft, grip, club head, and said "assembled in the USA"

[Buck Wolter]

If you need any clubs (or clothing, really anything) I'd go get them, I just bought high end rain gear that is made in China, that will get hit with 79% tariffs next week, I think almost all clubs components are made in China.

[Ian Mackenzie]

Make
America
Greatly
Ashamed


Why:


Do
Oligarchs in
USA
Choose to
Harm
Everyone?

[Tim Martin]

Make
America
Greatly
Ashamed


Why:


Do
Oligarchs in
USA
Choose to
Harm
Everyone?

I was thinking we might get to page two before things started to heat up although I can’t say I’m shocked. Game on.

[Matt_Cohn]

None of the top 10 club manufacturers make their components in the US, generally speaking.


It seems like more golf course stuff, from mowers to sand to fertilizer, is produced in the US.


Of course a recession and a big stock market dive would probably be the biggest impact.


But then who knows what’s going to happen next week or the one after that.  [size=78%] [/size]

[Kalen Braley]

Make
America
Greatly
Ashamed


Why:


Do
Oligarchs in
USA
Choose to
Harm
Everyone?

I was thinking we might get to page two before things started to heat up although I can’t say I’m shocked. Game on.

Given Trump loves to play, I wouldn't be surprised if he exempts golf-related products across the board

But as has been alluded too, I think the bigger effects will comes from hits to discretionary income for all but the 1%ers whether that be from higher prices, unemployment, inflation, 401ks, etc.

[Matt Schoolfield]

Much of the golf discussed here is a luxury product. Luxury products should have margins large enough to absorb a healthy drop in profitability, so I suspect that some-if-not-most of the tariffs (if they are even legal) will be absorbed by the firms.

Now, prices for Costco’s equipment will have to go up, but I suspect the margin on a new driver is well over 200%, so the companies can easily eat that if they choose to.

My main concern is a generalized recession. The affordability crisis, which I’ve discussed at length here before, is not just not abating, it’s accelerating. That means a genuine recession could be quite painful.

I know that a real recession would quite seriously affect golf. The real problem with a recession here is that it would be an inflationary recession, which means interest rates could end up higher than they are today, which causes more issues.

Whether it’s bluster or serious, we are flirting with real danger. I say this as someone who actually thinks tariffs can be a useful tool in some technical ways.

[Sean_A]

Much of the golf discussed here is a luxury product. Luxury products should have margins large enough to absorb a healthy drop in profitability, so I suspect that some-if-not-most of the tariffs (if they are even legal) will be absorbed by the firms.

Now, prices for Costco’s equipment will have to go up, but I suspect the margin on a new driver is well over 200%, so the companies can easily eat that if they choose to.

My main concern is a generalized recession. The affordability crisis, which I’ve discussed at length here before, is not just not abating, it’s accelerating. That means a genuine recession could be quite painful.

I know that a real recession would quite seriously affect golf. The real problem with a recession here is that it would be an inflationary recession, which means interest rates could end up higher than they are today, which causes more issues.

Whether it’s bluster or serious, we are flirting with real danger. I say this as someone who actually thinks tariffs can be a useful tool in some technical ways.

China hitting back so quickly has to be blow to Trump’s plan…whatever it may be. If he explained his plan properly and was more targeted perhaps the hit on the economy would be less harsh. Though I be am not necessarily against high interest rates as the old trope of using the housing market to fuel the economy is dangerous stuff.

I expect golf fees to increase, though I think they would have done so anyway. I could see some future projects put on the back burner in a wait and see mode.

Ciao

[Ben Sims]

The bottom line is no one knows what is going to happen. For better or worse an economically isolationist America has global markets panicked in the short term. Not only that, but interest rates aren’t low and Americans are, as always, in debt. This makes for problems on a global scale historically. It will be worth a study on whether a short term pinch by America’s middle and lower class will catalyze into an actual recession or just a short term market adjustment while US manufacturing and commodities production ramps up to meet demand for non-tariffed goods and services (as the administration hopes).


As it applies to our interests on this site I hope we don’t get into another Wicked Pony scenario.

[Chris Hughes]

Takomo Golf (club maker) has gotten some traction recently with their signing of some youTube influencers, one of whom happens to play the PGA Tour (Wesley Bryan).

They make some pretty darn good looking forged irons at a price-point about 50% of where Titleist is...but, they are effectively a component company with no proprietary R&D or real assets -- a virtual company if you will.

I asked them about the tariff issue and this was their response: 

"...and as we have a warehouse in the U.S also, the tariffs will not apply for orders shipped from our U.S warehouse. If the order is shipped from our HK warehouse there should not be any tariffs also as the "De minimis" was activated again meaning that parcels valued 800$ or less will not be taxed."

Takomo has no retail presence and EVERY order is an individual order, and immediately paid in-full.  I don't know if they have it right but that's a direct quote.

I seem to remember the Brora operating model hinging on outside play from Americans, won't just be Turnberry.

IMO now is a good time to invest in Elon, if you get my drift... 

[Carl Johnson]

The bottom line is no one knows what is going to happen. For better or worse an economically isolationist America has global markets panicked in the short term. Not only that, but interest rates aren’t low and Americans are, as always, in debt. This makes for problems on a global scale historically. It will be worth a study on whether a short term pinch by America’s middle and lower class will catalyze into an actual recession or just a short term market adjustment while US manufacturing and commodities production ramps up to meet demand for non-tariffed goods and services (as the administration hopes).


As it applies to our interests on this site I hope we don’t get into another Wicked Pony scenario.

Agreed on the bottom line.  But a recession or even a short-term downturn cannot be good for anyone, golf included.  I don't see US manufacturing being able to ramp up anytime soon, and if it does, what are the wages going to be and what will that mean for the US workers and consumers?  Just a question that I cannot answer. 

[Wayne_Kozun]

Canadians are very significantly reducing travel to the US due to the hostility and disrespect showed to Canada by Trump.  This will affect golf travel as well and will be most noticeable if this trend continues into next winter.  It will likely help places like Cabot Links, but it is already very busy so it can't absorb many additional guests, at least not in the high season from June-September.  The net effect is likely that Canadian golf resorts will see additional demand in the current environment. If you were planning to go to one then book now.

[John Kavanaugh]

How long could the game survive if another club or ball was never again manufactured. Silver linings.

[Mark Pearce]

What's the tariff on a Make America Great Again cap, made in China?

[MCirba]

As a student of history, those who don't learn from it are doomed to repeat it.


Like this thread, it won't end well.

[Craig Sweet]

I have to believe that mowers have a fair number of foreign parts just as auto's do. 

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