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Kyle Harris

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #25 on: February 02, 2025, 05:27:43 PM »
First, one has to buy into the notion that the best golf course in the world is identifiable.
Then, one has to buy into the notion that at any given point in time the best golf course in the world is within the range of whomever is doing the ranking/rating (Your foray into the Himalays, as an example, Tom).
Lastly, one might have to accept that the best golf course in the world has already been built and may never be supplanted.

The Groupthink, and I agree that it exists, is an exigent that we need a meaningful start in order to rank everything else. Ordinal numbers only work if there's a first place in the first place.

Without the Groupthink, every list would be a personal list of personal experiences.

I recently finally listed all the courses I've played and gave them a rapid rating. The distribution here is largely normal with only 10% of my courses receiving the highest rating and another 10% getting the lowest. Median, mean, and mode are all the same.

Does this imply a ranking as well? How do I parse the 9s/8s/7s that litter my Top 100? GroupThink is a good a start as any for me to determine that the 9ness of Merion East is better than the 9ness of Old Town Club.
http://kylewharris.com

Constantly blamed by 8-handicaps for their 7 missed 12-footers each round.

“Split fairways are for teenagers.”

-Tom Doak

Ira Fishman

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #26 on: February 02, 2025, 05:28:49 PM »
Jake,


It would be helpful and educational for you to specify names of courses. But if you don’t want to be deluged with access requests (not from me), understood.


Thanks.

Andrew Harvie

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #27 on: February 02, 2025, 05:29:17 PM »
Why is it controversial to say that it’s preposterous that only 3 of the best 20 courses in America were built in the last 40 years?


Because it's not about eras, it's about diversity in architects. In Golf Magazine's US Top 100 among courses older than 40 years old:


  • 3 - Donald Ross (No. 13 Pinehurst No. 2 | No. 17 Seminole | No. 20 Oakland Hills)
  • 2 - Mackenzie (No. 2 Cypress Point | No. 6 Augusta National)
  • 2 - Seth Raynor (No. 11 Fishers Island | No. 12 Chicago Golf Club)
  • 2 - George Thomas (No. 10 LACC North | No. 14 Riviera)
  • 2 - William Flynn (No. 3 Shinnecock Hills | No. 8 Merion)
  • 1 - A.W. Tillinghast, Perry & Press Maxwell, Hugh Wilson, Henry Fownes, C.B. Macdonald, Harry Colt, & George Crump
Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw have 2, and Tom Doak has 1 in that top 20. How many other architects have had a property that could be top 20? Gil Hanse would be one, his highest ranked on that same list is Ohoopee and CapRock at 44 & 46, respectively. But other than that...?


I'd contend it's simply about the diversity in architects who were building golf at that time, rather than historical bias.
Managing Partner, Golf Club Atlas

John Kirk

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #28 on: February 02, 2025, 06:20:22 PM »
I'm currently reading "A Few Words in Defense of Our Country" by Robert Hilburn, an excellent biography of musician Randy Newman.  I just read a couple pages about a lesser-known song named "I Want Everyone to Like Me."  Very confessional in nature, the book's discussion of this song includes a quote from his good friend Lenny Warnoker about Newman's ambivalence about being liked for his great contributions to popular music.

In my opinion, I suffer the "wanting everyone to like me" malady more than most.  Having contrary opinions about things can get in the way of that.  I tend to moderate my opinions if the consensus opinion differs greatly from my own, because I value other opinions and allow for my own shortcomings.

I desire both frank commentary and a sense of camaraderie, defined by Oxford as "mutual trust and friendship among people who spend a lot of time together."  In my opinion, the greatest threat to this ideal is a competitive desire to win, which regularly manifests itself in discussions here.   Now that I'm older, I'm less likely to spout controversial opinions.


I'm just getting warmed up on this topic, so I'll wrap up this post.  Part of Groupthink is trying to get along and go along.  Part of Groupthink is trying to not look stupid.  We'll go back to the subjective vs. objective stuff next. 




John Kirk

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #29 on: February 02, 2025, 06:42:06 PM »
Dangit!  Lost my post.  Back in a while.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2025, 07:14:48 PM by John Kirk »

John Kirk

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #30 on: February 02, 2025, 07:41:18 PM »
Why is it controversial to say that it’s preposterous that only 3 of the best 20 courses in America were built in the last 40 years?


Because it's not about eras, it's about diversity in architects. In Golf Magazine's US Top 100 among courses older than 40 years old:


  • 3 - Donald Ross (No. 13 Pinehurst No. 2 | No. 17 Seminole | No. 20 Oakland Hills)
  • 2 - Mackenzie (No. 2 Cypress Point | No. 6 Augusta National)
  • 2 - Seth Raynor (No. 11 Fishers Island | No. 12 Chicago Golf Club)
  • 2 - George Thomas (No. 10 LACC North | No. 14 Riviera)
  • 2 - William Flynn (No. 3 Shinnecock Hills | No. 8 Merion)
  • 1 - A.W. Tillinghast, Perry & Press Maxwell, Hugh Wilson, Henry Fownes, C.B. Macdonald, Harry Colt, & George Crump
Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw have 2, and Tom Doak has 1 in that top 20. How many other architects have had a property that could be top 20? Gil Hanse would be one, his highest ranked on that same list is Ohoopee and CapRock at 44 & 46, respectively. But other than that...?


I'd contend it's simply about the diversity in architects who were building golf at that time, rather than historical bias.


Hi Andrew,

I agree with Ben that modern courses may be underrated in general.  In my experience, I feel the best moderns tend to have a greater variety of outcomes and a larger number of strategic considerations.  I think it's fair to suggest that some of the big, complex courses of the 21st century surpass century-old designs and represent a new baseline for strategic excellence in design.  With all of the accumulated knowledge about the sport, that seems to be a logical end result.

It's not worth arguing about but I would disagree with the idea that diversity among great architects is important.  I think it just came out that way. 

It takes a long time to earn consensus approval..  Previous attempts to anoint a new course in the top 20 during its first few years of existence have largely been premature.  In this century, the exception is Sand Hills, while Friar's Head gradually worked its way into the top 20 over about 20 years.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2025, 07:52:12 PM by John Kirk »

Michael Chadwick

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #31 on: February 03, 2025, 12:45:29 AM »
Is a 26% discrepancy between GD and GM for a US Top 100 an "extraordinary agreement" as John Kirk wrote, with Tom's agreement prompting him to start this thread? I find that to be a meaningful difference, actually, as I'd imagine the student getting a C would feel who sees the person sitting next to him got an A+. 

I'm enjoying and in agreement with many of John's subsequent posts. Tom and Ally, your opinions here strike me as possibly undercutting the following idea I hold to be true: that consensus surrounding good golf design today is more in line with what MacKenzie, Ross, Simpson, and Macdonald thought, than with the Jones or Fazio trees of architecture. Tom, you've had a key role in creating that paradigm shift, and plenty of us here have been educated on and off the course by your work. My hunch is that there are details surrounding current trends or sacred cows over which you're in disagreement, but not the wholesale shift in consensus perspective that you've had a role in making. 

Tom, aren't you destabilizing your own confidential guide here? That if consensus of shared values meant to quantify greatness is impossible, it's just groupthink and capitulating to the most consequential voice in the room? You have four authors from four corners of the globe, and your individual Doak Scores for the vast majority of courses in the volumes differ only by a single digit out of 10. I'd like to think the similarity springs from consensus, a lens for how to perceive and acknowledge good design, but again it seems like yours and Ally's comments are trying to undermine that.   

I'm not a rater, but scores can be anonymous to all but for whomever's collecting and reviewing the data, right? A Golf Mag rater who thinks Sand Hills should actually be 75th in US just has to answer for the opinion to the architectural editor, and can then choose how private or public to be with that opinion. I'm not convinced at all by the separate thread Kyle started. Being a good guest and being invited back is more about being tactful with your opinions, not for having opinions.

I'm going to quote one of your earlier posts, Tom, because I think it's reaching a negative conclusion for what is instead quite positive:

Surely, tastes have changed over time, and the criteria for rating courses has evolved . . . and that is one of my examples of why it's groupthink.My other example is The Confidential Guide to Golf Courses.  When I wrote the original version of the book in 1987, some of the courses I highlighted as my favorites were nowhere to be found in the ranking lists:Cypress Point, as I recall, was in GOLF DIGEST's Fifth TenCruden Bay was in nobody's listCrystal Downs was in nobody's listLahinch was pretty low in many people's estimation, for all its blind shotsThe National Golf Links of America was in nobody's list [!!]North Berwick was considered much too short and easy to be a great courseRye [par 68] was in nobody's listSt. Enodoc [par 69] was in nobody's listSwinley Forest [par 68] was in nobody's listNow, you could argue that times have changed, and that people's criteria have changed, but why is that?  How does consensus just slowly change over time?It changes because of groupthink.

Consensus doesn't slowly change over time from people arbitrarily accepting a viewpoint regardless of whether they actually think it's valid or not (as groupthink is defined). That, I'd argue, happens more in a fad, and after its quick popular burst its emptiness becomes apparent and people move on.

Consensus changes slowly because more and more people actually come to believe something to be true, or (to not wade into objective vs subjective speak) truer than what was considered to be true previously.

I'm getting too long winded if this thread is meant only for top 100 ranking systems. But I think it's an important discussion as it pertains to contemporary architecture. We're entering a moment of increased divergence as Tom's and Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw's careers are in their final arc, and long-time associates from different trees are producing original work. Landmand, Karoo, and Old Barnwell are tremendously different golf courses, and it's important that positive and negative feedback isn't simply written off as groupthink, but is instead collated as an array of opinions meant to contest, shift, and refine consensus going forward. Groupthink is empty and passive. Consensus is active, renewing, and vital.   

   
« Last Edit: February 03, 2025, 12:47:35 AM by Michael Chadwick »
Instagram: mj_c_golf

Sean_A

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #32 on: February 03, 2025, 03:37:32 AM »
Michael

It is hard to know when true consensus in rating occurs if panels continue going through upheavals.

I couldn’t hazard a guess at John’s theory without knowing which courses are on the shortlist for each magazine. I also recognise that there isn’t all that much different between being 100 or 150 on a list….not enough to draw hard conclusions about consensus. I definitely think groupthink is at work because it’s hard baked into the ranking process. I might change my mind if raters could vote for any course within a location rather than solely those on a shortlist. I can see the potential nightmare of tabulating the results, but that is because the number is predetermined as usually top 100…which in and of itself is groupthink. It would be far more interesting and enlightening if only the courses which separated themselves from the crowd were ranked such that it may be a top 42 one year and top 37 another year.

Ciao
New plays planned for 2025: Machrihanish Dunes, Dunaverty and Carradale

Ally Mcintosh

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #33 on: February 03, 2025, 06:50:18 AM »
Is a 26% discrepancy between GD and GM for a US Top 100 an "extraordinary agreement" as John Kirk wrote, with Tom's agreement prompting him to start this thread? I find that to be a meaningful difference, actually, as I'd imagine the student getting a C would feel who sees the person sitting next to him got an A+. 

I'm enjoying and in agreement with many of John's subsequent posts. Tom and Ally, your opinions here strike me as possibly undercutting the following idea I hold to be true: that consensus surrounding good golf design today is more in line with what MacKenzie, Ross, Simpson, and Macdonald thought, than with the Jones or Fazio trees of architecture. Tom, you've had a key role in creating that paradigm shift, and plenty of us here have been educated on and off the course by your work. My hunch is that there are details surrounding current trends or sacred cows over which you're in disagreement, but not the wholesale shift in consensus perspective that you've had a role in making. 

Tom, aren't you destabilizing your own confidential guide here? That if consensus of shared values meant to quantify greatness is impossible, it's just groupthink and capitulating to the most consequential voice in the room? You have four authors from four corners of the globe, and your individual Doak Scores for the vast majority of courses in the volumes differ only by a single digit out of 10. I'd like to think the similarity springs from consensus, a lens for how to perceive and acknowledge good design, but again it seems like yours and Ally's comments are trying to undermine that.   

I'm not a rater, but scores can be anonymous to all but for whomever's collecting and reviewing the data, right? A Golf Mag rater who thinks Sand Hills should actually be 75th in US just has to answer for the opinion to the architectural editor, and can then choose how private or public to be with that opinion. I'm not convinced at all by the separate thread Kyle started. Being a good guest and being invited back is more about being tactful with your opinions, not for having opinions.

I'm going to quote one of your earlier posts, Tom, because I think it's reaching a negative conclusion for what is instead quite positive:

Surely, tastes have changed over time, and the criteria for rating courses has evolved . . . and that is one of my examples of why it's groupthink.My other example is The Confidential Guide to Golf Courses.  When I wrote the original version of the book in 1987, some of the courses I highlighted as my favorites were nowhere to be found in the ranking lists:Cypress Point, as I recall, was in GOLF DIGEST's Fifth TenCruden Bay was in nobody's listCrystal Downs was in nobody's listLahinch was pretty low in many people's estimation, for all its blind shotsThe National Golf Links of America was in nobody's list [!!]North Berwick was considered much too short and easy to be a great courseRye [par 68] was in nobody's listSt. Enodoc [par 69] was in nobody's listSwinley Forest [par 68] was in nobody's listNow, you could argue that times have changed, and that people's criteria have changed, but why is that?  How does consensus just slowly change over time?It changes because of groupthink.

Consensus doesn't slowly change over time from people arbitrarily accepting a viewpoint regardless of whether they actually think it's valid or not (as groupthink is defined). That, I'd argue, happens more in a fad, and after its quick popular burst its emptiness becomes apparent and people move on.

Consensus changes slowly because more and more people actually come to believe something to be true, or (to not wade into objective vs subjective speak) truer than what was considered to be true previously.

I'm getting too long winded if this thread is meant only for top 100 ranking systems. But I think it's an important discussion as it pertains to contemporary architecture. We're entering a moment of increased divergence as Tom's and Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw's careers are in their final arc, and long-time associates from different trees are producing original work. Landmand, Karoo, and Old Barnwell are tremendously different golf courses, and it's important that positive and negative feedback isn't simply written off as groupthink, but is instead collated as an array of opinions meant to contest, shift, and refine consensus going forward. Groupthink is empty and passive. Consensus is active, renewing, and vital.   

   


Michael,


Thank you for that post. I understand where you are coming from and it’s hard to disagree. To a point.


Where I will counter is that you are putting all your eggs in the basket of education. That we are all gradually becoming more informed than our predecessors on GCA and therefore arriving at a consensus that we now understand what is good architecture and what is bad.


It’s that point of view that I question; not wholly because I do believe there is a spattering of truth in there. But it’s why I - cynically - post my 10 rules of modern GCA. There’s a surface understanding among many commentators that has become quite militant on deciding what represents good architecture. Similar to what Social Media is promoting in all walks of life, shutting down opposing views.


Serious debate will tell you that the gap between - say - a Hanse and an RTJ is not as big as current day commentators will have you believe. Most of what is seriously debated is the 10 or 20% on top, the aesthetic. Yes, the philosophy too. But the philosophy without the aesthetic is less prominent a slice of the pie than one might think.


Tom Doak is a pioneer. There is no questioning that. I recall Ben Stephens arguing this but it is not in doubt. He has absolutely shaped the modern beliefs in golf design. People may counter that he is still a niche name in the bigger world of golf. But if you’re not talking about Tom Doak, you don’t have a real interest in architecture.


I - for one - feel very closely aligned with the details I know and speculate about his philosophy, uncannily so sometimes. Some of that is me learning from his lead, a lot of it is me independently coming to the same conclusion…. But I am not blinded by it…. I find myself questioning things more than ever now, in part because I believe much of this new social media generation is blinded by it. When you only see the cherry on top (the last 10-20%), it’s hard to understand for some that much of the cake is the same.


So what happens if some new pioneer comes along in 50 years with a slightly different philosophy. Are we arrogant enough to believe that the next generation won’t be the same as this one, following someone else’s lead?


I’m not willing to bet on that. I grew up on links courses. For 10 years, all I wanted was American style target golf with water hazards. Because that’s what we didn’t have in Scotland. I wasn’t alone…. What will our grandchildren want?

Ally Mcintosh

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #34 on: February 03, 2025, 07:57:07 AM »
One other point:


People inherently mark-up things that make them feel clever. If one recognises a design trait, a template or a cornerstone of architecture discussion, that person is more likely to pat themselves and the course on the back simultaneously.


MacRaynor courses have made huge strides in the last 30 years for that very reason. You could argue North Berwick benefits from the same.


None of us are immune to it. In my class of EIGCA students (2007-2009), I was one of only two to receive an A for the final design project. Martin Hawtree was one of the judges. He asked each student which architect had inspired their design. I answered Tom Simpson. I could sense his delight when he said that he had seen that right at the beginning of the interview… I knew then and there I had aced the submission.

MCirba

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #35 on: February 03, 2025, 08:31:12 AM »
I'm of two minds on this question.


People predictably rip rankings and one common theme presented here over the years is that one needed multiple visits, in varying weather and winds and seasons and such to have a valid opinion.

That's crap.  I'd counter by asking folks to honestly tell me how many second, or third, or more visits to any course resulted in them adjusting their initial impression by more than one point on the Doak Scale.

I can think of one.


On the other hand, its impossible to not be influenced by others if you already have a high opinion of that person's knowledge, fairness, and experience.  In fact, having that prior knowledge provides a good barometer of validating that high opinion or at least sharpening areas of difference of opinions.
"Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent" - Calvin Coolidge

https://cobbscreek.org/

Tom_Doak

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #36 on: February 03, 2025, 08:49:30 AM »

Tom and Ally, your opinions here strike me as possibly undercutting the following idea I hold to be true: that consensus surrounding good golf design today is more in line with what MacKenzie, Ross, Simpson, and Macdonald thought, than with the Jones or Fazio trees of architecture. Tom, you've had a key role in creating that paradigm shift, and plenty of us here have been educated on and off the course by your work. My hunch is that there are details surrounding current trends or sacred cows over which you're in disagreement, but not the wholesale shift in consensus perspective that you've had a role in making. 

. . .

Consensus doesn't slowly change over time from people arbitrarily accepting a viewpoint regardless of whether they actually think it's valid or not (as groupthink is defined). That, I'd argue, happens more in a fad, and after its quick popular burst its emptiness becomes apparent and people move on.

Consensus changes slowly because more and more people actually come to believe something to be true, or (to not wade into objective vs subjective speak) truer than what was considered to be true previously.

I'm getting too long winded if this thread is meant only for top 100 ranking systems. But I think it's an important discussion as it pertains to contemporary architecture. We're entering a moment of increased divergence as Tom's and Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw's careers are in their final arc, and long-time associates from different trees are producing original work. Landmand, Karoo, and Old Barnwell are tremendously different golf courses, and it's important that positive and negative feedback isn't simply written off as groupthink, but is instead collated as an array of opinions meant to contest, shift, and refine consensus going forward. Groupthink is empty and passive. Consensus is active, renewing, and vital.   



Michael:


Thanks for your earnest response.


I agree with the first bit I quoted from you, that the tenets of Golden Age designers are alive and well today, and I know I've had a fair bit of influence on that.  Indeed, I've had so much influence that it makes me skeptical of others' real understanding of the topic, because I remember when most people thought differently!


It's not that I have a bug up my butt about some particular course being ranked highly or some particular architect doing well.  If you think David Kidd or Gil Hanse is the building the best courses of anyone today, that's fine . . . because I fully accept that what you like [and even what I like] is entirely subjective.  And if that's so, then any consensus is to some degree a result of groupthink.


But a lot of people seem to believe that because the surface esthetic of everyone's work is the same now, the philosophy must be the same, and that's NOT subjective. 


What bothers me is so much other modern work is described as if it's not philosophically different than Sand Hills and Pacific Dunes, but simply the natural evolution of my work and Bill and Ben's work.  That's because we are sacred cows ourselves now, and because there don't seem to be many writers or podcasters who can articulate the differences, and young designers would rather attach themselves to us, than go out on a limb to explain why they are doing something different.  [Perhaps this feeling was piqued by Blake insisting the other day that Old Barnwell's greens were built just like he and Brian would build greens for me.]


To use an auto racing analogy:  if they're seen as being in the slip stream, it would be foolish for them to go wide and try to pass us, especially since they assume we will run out of gas in a few years.  It is enough to make you want to stay in the race a while longer and kick their butts.


Consensus occurs because people are afraid to disagree too much with elite opinions . . . but it inevitably changes because taste-makers grow old and stale and someone new must come along to replace them.  But that doesn't necessarily mean the army of followers are any better thinkers than they were beforehand.

Tom_Doak

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #37 on: February 03, 2025, 08:51:15 AM »

People inherently mark-up things that make them feel clever. If one recognises a design trait, a template or a cornerstone of architecture discussion, that person is more likely to pat themselves and the course on the back simultaneously.

MacRaynor courses have made huge strides in the last 30 years for that very reason. You could argue North Berwick benefits from the same.



Also, yes, absolutely.  This is the point I was trying to make to Sean in that other thread.  North Berwick has always been well-known, but 40 years ago it was a run-down town and there weren't many Americans playing golf there.

Michael Felton

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #38 on: February 03, 2025, 09:21:40 AM »
Tom,


This is an interesting question and I must admit it's a topic that I think about from time to time. Is there a reason that people tend to agree on what is a good golf course? All the courses I have played that are in the top 100 lists I have thoroughly enjoyed and would love to play them again. It's hard to put words to why though. I think there are parallels with this thread and one about the Confidential Guide that was going on relatively recently - we were discussing the variance among the four of you and looking for courses that the highest ranking was more than 2 different from the lowest. I think excluding the 0s, which are special cases, there were perhaps no examples where you differed by 3 or more on ranking a course. Is that groupthink? Or is there some objective reason that we all find the same courses to be similarly compelling? I'm not sure.


Sidetracking somewhat, but I think it's related. There is a course on Long Island called Rock Hill. It's not a great course by any stretch of the imagination, but there is one hole on it that got me to thinking. The 7th. It's a mid-length par 3 - about 170 yards or so. It's a little uphill and it's got a fun green on it. There's a central spine that runs through it from back to front. To the right of the spine the ground falls away towards the front right and then off the front right of the green it falls away more steeply (though still not steep steep and maybe for 12-15 feet or so). Left of the spine is flatter, but eases its way to the front left. It's a good hole IMO, not great. Then I was thinking about the par 3s at Winged Foot. Especially on the West course they are all so extreme in green shaping and surrounds. The slopes are bigger and bolder than that hole at Rock Hill. And I wonder if the hole at Rock Hill could be as good as the Winged Foot ones if all those humps and bumps were just more exaggerated. And if that's the case, then why aren't they? Presumably expense has something to do with it, but also perhaps there is something else that I can't put my finger on that makes those WF holes great that isn't there at Rock Hill.

John Kavanaugh

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #39 on: February 03, 2025, 09:27:58 AM »
It’s called “Big List Energy”.

Michael Chadwick

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #40 on: February 03, 2025, 10:06:49 AM »
Appreciate the above responses, Ally and Tom. More to discuss, but going to let the thread breathe a bit more.
Instagram: mj_c_golf

Tom_Doak

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #41 on: February 03, 2025, 10:26:21 AM »
Tom,


This is an interesting question and I must admit it's a topic that I think about from time to time. Is there a reason that people tend to agree on what is a good golf course? All the courses I have played that are in the top 100 lists I have thoroughly enjoyed and would love to play them again. It's hard to put words to why though. I think there are parallels with this thread and one about the Confidential Guide that was going on relatively recently - we were discussing the variance among the four of you and looking for courses that the highest ranking was more than 2 different from the lowest. I think excluding the 0s, which are special cases, there were perhaps no examples where you differed by 3 or more on ranking a course. Is that groupthink? Or is there some objective reason that we all find the same courses to be similarly compelling? I'm not sure.



Michael:


For The Confidential Guide, the key is that I chose my other co-authors, because I thought they were mostly of similar tastes to mine, and I could depend on them to do ratings for courses I hadn’t seen that would be somewhat in line with my own views. 


A book where everyone disagrees would be very interesting, but I’m not sure whether it would help you decide where to play, or just scramble everyone’s brains.  Perhaps Ron Whitten and Brad Klein and I could do something like that:  I respect their opinions but I disagree with them much more than I do with Ran.  (Or, publicly, at least - Ran never offers much negative feedback even though we all know he’s thinking it.)


As for Rock Hill - I’ve never been there but it is more than possible to find a very good hole on an otherwise dull (or too extreme) course.

Jim_Coleman

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #42 on: February 03, 2025, 10:34:26 AM »
    To me, golf ratings are to golf what Rotten Tomatoes is to movies. I read both; I trust both; I sometimes choose not to bother to check something out if the rating is too bad; and I suspect my opinion can be influenced by others whom I respect. But I still draw my own conclusions. More often than not I agree, not because of groupthink but because the raters are often right. Occasionally I disagree. It’s all subjective and fun. Nothing more.

mike_malone

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #43 on: February 03, 2025, 10:46:31 AM »
    To me, golf ratings are to golf what Rotten Tomatoes is to movies. I read both; I trust both; I sometimes choose not to bother to check something out if the rating is too bad; and I suspect my opinion can be influenced by others whom I respect. But I still draw my own conclusions. More often than not I agree, not because of groupthink but because the raters are often right. Occasionally I disagree. It’s all subjective and fun. Nothing more.


Remember when we both ended up at that 4 star movie that was horrible?
AKA Mayday

Kalen Braley

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #44 on: February 03, 2025, 11:00:58 AM »
I would offer a counter point that having 74% agreement is absolutely a consensus in our modern day, especially with something as subjective as rating golf courses.

I can't think of any other industry, organization, or formed entity (which don't rely on hard science) where this is the case.

P.S.  Jim hit the nail on the head, we all may have minor quibbles over which course should be above which, but the current top 100 lists are certainly not a bad place to start.

John Kavanaugh

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #45 on: February 03, 2025, 11:03:42 AM »
If I had moved to Orlando when Arnold Palmer was still active at the club there is no doubt in my mind that I would be a member of Bay Hill. As it is I have never played it despite living at the course for over a year. Bay Hill has also had a precipitous drop in the rankings over the years. Has the course changed?


Note: It appears that multiple plays of Bay Hill would have resulted in a 3 digit drop in the Doak scale.

Tommy Williamsen

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #46 on: February 03, 2025, 11:20:02 AM »
I began a thread about contemporary tastes in golf design. I mentioned that we have gotten away from penal golf. Very penal courses have been softened. PGA West and Sawgrass have become more user-friendly. When GOLF DIGEST replaced difficulty with challenge, it signaled a change in the consensus of players. In some small way, Mike Kaiser spawned the shift. Bandon Dunes and Pacific Dunes have plenty of challenge but they are not as penal as PGA West or Sawgrass. They are more fun.
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Thomas Dai

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #47 on: February 03, 2025, 11:49:36 AM »
John Kirk had this thought in the thread on the Golf Digest Best New ranking, which I wanted to separate from that and explore more in depth.  I will start by quoting his full post here:
The stated definition of a Doak 7 golf course is:  "An excellent course, worth checking out if you get anywhere within 100 miles.  You can expect to find soundly designed, interesting holes, good course conditioning and a pretty setting, if not necessarily anything unique to the world of golf."
This comment is tangentially related to the topic at hand, but I thought it was worthwhile to share the extraordinary agreement between the Golf Magazine and Golf Digest Top 100 courses in the U.S.I compared Golf Digest's 2023 top 100 list to Golf Magazine's 2024/2025 top 100 list.For context, there are about 16,000 courses in the U.S., according to the National Golf Foundation.
--  Each list has the same top 8 courses.
--  17 of GD's top 20 are in GM's top 20.
--  29 of GD's top 40 are in GM's top 40.
--  47 of GD's top 60 are in GM's top 60.
--  61 of GD's top 80 are in GM's top 80.

--  74 of GD's top 100 are in GM's top 100.


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Agreement on 74/100.
Curious to know how far down a combined ranking table one would have to go before all 100 in both lists were included.


Atb


Atb

Michael Morandi

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #48 on: February 03, 2025, 11:52:47 AM »
Why is it controversial to say that it’s preposterous that only 3 of the best 20 courses in America were built in the last 40 years?
Is it surprising that there are few modern classics that crack the top 20 when the6 are replicating the golden age architecture.  Respect your elders.

Tom_Doak

Re: Consensus vs. Groupthink in Golf Course Rankings
« Reply #49 on: February 03, 2025, 12:22:50 PM »

Agreement on 74/100.
Curious to know how far down a combined ranking table one would have to go before all 100 in both lists were included.



That is indeed the better question.


The GOLF DIGEST list has a handful of courses that are nowhere close to the top 100 on the GOLF Magazine list -- I can't remember for sure but I think some of them like Canyata and Rich Harvest Farm were removed from the GOLF ballot for lack of support.


I'm not sure what is the lowest-rated course by GOLF DIGEST from the GOLF Magazine list.  GOLF DIGEST goes down to 200 places now and I would be surprised if there were more than one or two courses which didn't make their top 200.


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