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Tommy Williamsen

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An interesting article in GOLF DIGEST. Some guys play our course 95% of the time. When they travel for our league, they have a difficult time playing to their handicap, yet when other teams visit us, they dominate.


https://www.golfdigest.com/story/home-course-disadvantage-handicap-calculation-member-concern
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Matt Schoolfield

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2024, 11:42:51 AM »
This is a statistics problems that could be answered with access to the USGA database. I suspect that it is true, but is likely course specific.


The ability of a course to align with an individual’s play style, and knowledge of course nuances, seems to be what would drive that phenomenon if it exists.
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A.G._Crockett

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2024, 11:54:07 AM »
An interesting article in GOLF DIGEST. Some guys play our course 95% of the time. When they travel for our league, they have a difficult time playing to their handicap, yet when other teams visit us, they dominate.


https://www.golfdigest.com/story/home-course-disadvantage-handicap-calculation-member-concern


Tommy,


This a topic that is near and dear to my heart b/c I’m an interclub captain for the 65+ team at my club. Home course advantage is real and massive, probably bigger any other home advantage in all of sports.  I think the home team wins over 70% of the CGA Interclub matches, and that’s bases on a pretty huge sample size; there are well over 300 interclub teams in the Carolinas, with each team playing 6 matches a year.




When I make out my lineups, there are guys that I will NOT put in the lineup for an away match; there are other guys that I think have a pretty good chance of playing well wherever we go.




Some of this is GCA-related; knowing what club to pull on layup shots, knowing the correct line of play, and especially knowing the greens.




But here’s the other factor: Pretty much every time I hear a conversation about whether or not “our handicaps travel well”, the person asking the question plays most of his golf in a regular group in a format that keeps him from playing fully under the Rules.  Gimmes, preferred lies, S&D penalties, picking up at double, etc, all make individuals who play that who especially unsuited to playing real golf in competition on the road.  Add that to the obvious difficulty of the unfamiliar course, and they just have no chance of playing well.
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

DFarron

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2024, 12:12:24 PM »
Over the years I have taken many “low handicappers” to Pro-Am’s where they fail to break 90 and many times are near 100.


Their handicap is low because 1) They know where to hit it at their course 2) They are generally poor adapters 3)They don’t know their realistic carry distances and 4)They don’t usually play by the rules (putt everything out, etc).


I’ve had opportunities to join a club but have passed because I play a lot of competitive golf and I feel playing different courses and conditions prepares me better.

Carl Johnson

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2024, 12:35:15 PM »
Quote from A.G. Crockett, Reply 2:


"But here’s the other factor: Pretty much every time I hear a conversation about whether or not “our handicaps travel well”, the person asking the question plays most of his golf in a regular group in a format that keeps him from playing fully under the Rules.  Gimmes, preferred lies, S&D penalties, picking up at double, etc, all make individuals who play that who especially unsuited to playing real golf in competition on the road.  Add that to the obvious difficulty of the unfamiliar course, and they just have no chance of playing well."

Concerns about how well handicaps travel.  I think about this a lot, not because it means anything to me personally as I no longer play interclub matches or guest tournaments where handicaps come into play, but because other people worry about it and talk about it and may do things (that might be inappropriate) to try to rig the system.  I love "numbers," too, and when you come down to it the handicap system is just a numbers game.

I too believe that A.G.'s observation highlights a significant problem affecting how well some players' handicap's travel.  The resulting handicaps may not be vanity handicaps in the sense that they are intentionally manipulated to keep one's handicap low, but the net result is the same.


I've read a fair amount about the handicap system, ratings and slopes, and served on a ratings team for a short time, which was eye-opening.  For many reasons it's not a perfect system.  Moreover, I can't envision one.


Here's an article by the pope, which points out the "par" issue with the new world handicap system (2020).  One thing he says it does is screw high handicappers of a certain age who play from the forward tees (e.g., me). https://www.golfdigest.com/story/voices-the-flaw-in-the-new-world-handicap-system-dean-knuth


I've also read somewhere that rating and sloping involves taking into account 460 factors from each set of tees on a course.  Frankly, based on my experience, I do not recall quite that many, but there were a heck of a lot.  I have no paperwork from my years of rating and sloping, but I've looked on the web for the forms and instructions that are used and haven't been able to find them.  Does anyone have a good link to such?
« Last Edit: June 29, 2024, 12:46:07 PM by Carl Johnson »

Dan_Callahan

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2024, 01:10:07 PM »
Sometimes, a handicap that doesn’t travel is a result of the design of your home course. I was a member of a nice 9-hole course where I didn’t have to hit driver. In fact, most of the time I would take driver and 3-wood out of my bag to lighten the load. My handicap got down to a 3. But when I would travel with friends and played long courses where it was super important to be able to hit driver far and straight, I struggled. After a few years of that, I started spending way more time at the range hitting only my woods to get rid of that hole in my game.

Thomas Dai

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2024, 02:58:18 PM »
Not convinced any trends even more so travelling trends are accurate given the WHS.
Atb

Rob Marshall

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2024, 04:09:52 PM »


I can’t imagine anyone on average not scoring better on their home course. I’ve had some good rounds my first time out with no guidance because you are oblivious to the hidden trouble. Out sight out of mine works great in golf.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2024, 04:14:51 PM by Rob Marshall »
If life gives you limes, make margaritas.” Jimmy Buffett

Michael Felton

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2024, 09:45:32 AM »
This is from quite a long time ago and was based on a different handicapping system than any that is in play now. My mother used to play in an interclub league within our county. The county ladies association did a fairly deep dive into the results of those matches and found that on average, home field advantage was worth around 3 shots. So a 9 and a 12 where the 12 had home field advantage would result in a roughly 50/50 split. Two 9s playing each other would be won by the home player significantly more than the other way.


That was handicaps based purely on competition play and 95+% of those rounds would have been on a player's home course. That variance would depend a little on handicap level in general. Lower handicaps tend to travel better. They have more well-rounded games that can handle different courses better and they also play more competition rounds away from home, so their handicaps were a little more even anyway.


The above is obviously an "in general" thing and there will be some players whose handicaps travel better or worse than others and some courses that will have handicaps that travel better. Three shots feels about right to me too as an average.

Ally Mcintosh

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2024, 11:33:45 AM »
If I only played away courses, I would shoot a lot lower. I worked that out last year… not sure how it would translate to handicap though.

A.G._Crockett

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2024, 11:38:11 AM »
This is from quite a long time ago and was based on a different handicapping system than any that is in play now. My mother used to play in an interclub league within our county. The county ladies association did a fairly deep dive into the results of those matches and found that on average, home field advantage was worth around 3 shots. So a 9 and a 12 where the 12 had home field advantage would result in a roughly 50/50 split. Two 9s playing each other would be won by the home player significantly more than the other way.


That was handicaps based purely on competition play and 95+% of those rounds would have been on a player's home course. That variance would depend a little on handicap level in general. Lower handicaps tend to travel better. They have more well-rounded games that can handle different courses better and they also play more competition rounds away from home, so their handicaps were a little more even anyway.


The above is obviously an "in general" thing and there will be some players whose handicaps travel better or worse than others and some courses that will have handicaps that travel better. Three shots feels about right to me too as an average.


Good post; thanks!
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

A.G._Crockett

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2024, 11:41:04 AM »
If I only played away courses, I would shoot a lot lower. I worked that out last year… not sure how it would translate to handicap though.


Can you elaborate?  If you play consistently better on away courses, what’s going on at your home course?  In my experience, such results would be unusual, bordering on unique.
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

Kalen Braley

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2024, 12:08:13 PM »
If I only played away courses, I would shoot a lot lower. I worked that out last year… not sure how it would translate to handicap though.


Can you elaborate?  If you play consistently better on away courses, what’s going on at your home course?  In my experience, such results would be unusual, bordering on unique.


I would expect this to be the case if your home course is Butler National or Oakmont..

Michael Felton

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2024, 12:28:29 PM »
If I only played away courses, I would shoot a lot lower. I worked that out last year… not sure how it would translate to handicap though.


Can you elaborate?  If you play consistently better on away courses, what’s going on at your home course?  In my experience, such results would be unusual, bordering on unique.


I would expect this to be the case if your home course is Butler National or Oakmont..


Wild hitter who's a member at Sahalee? Only way I see this going like this is if your game is deeply unsuited to your course. Or as you say someone who plays somewhere extremely difficult.

Jeff M Johnson

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2024, 01:21:24 PM »
After reading the attached article, I am still confused as to why the USGA doesn't use it's database of rounds to readjust the course slope/rating combos (and the slope/rating combos from any given tee at a course) to make it the most even that they can given the data distributions. Literally adjust the slopes and ratings until it is most likely that any given golfer, regardless of their handicap or home course, has a roughly even chance of winning a match/tournament. It wouldn't be perfect, but I suspect it would be a lot closer to perfect than the current system. If you always play your home course from the same tees with the same golfers, then slope/rating don't even really matter.

As handicap chair, I can't wait to see the tools that will be at my disposal to adjust handicaps so the folks are more competitive. Can't wait for the arguments just before the member member that "my handicap is too low". 

Ally Mcintosh

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2024, 03:11:11 PM »
If I only played away courses, I would shoot a lot lower. I worked that out last year… not sure how it would translate to handicap though.


Can you elaborate?  If you play consistently better on away courses, what’s going on at your home course?  In my experience, such results would be unusual, bordering on unique.


Yes - last year I played more golf than I had since I was a young fella: About 100 rounds, 60 at home, 40 away.


I know this because for the first time ever, I kept track, as I did with my (approximate) scores. The away rounds were ~ 2 shots lower to par on average than the home rounds were.

I’ve no idea how that might have related to handicap given I only submit home competition rounds; but nonetheless I find the ultra-firm greens at home far harder to negotiate, even when compared to other top-tier links where - frankly - I find it easier to stop / control the ball and hence score.

Carl Johnson

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2024, 03:40:39 PM »
After reading the attached article, I am still confused as to why the USGA doesn't use it's database of rounds to readjust the course slope/rating combos (and the slope/rating combos from any given tee at a course) to make it the most even that they can given the data distributions. Literally adjust the slopes and ratings until it is most likely that any given golfer, regardless of their handicap or home course, has a roughly even chance of winning a match/tournament. It wouldn't be perfect, but I suspect it would be a lot closer to perfect than the current system. If you always play your home course from the same tees with the same golfers, then slope/rating don't even really matter.

As handicap chair, I can't wait to see the tools that will be at my disposal to adjust handicaps so the folks are more competitive. Can't wait for the arguments just before the member member that "my handicap is too low".


Interesting idea, although I wonder if enough golfers post enough away rounds to be meaningful.  Just wonder.


Also: " . . . has a roughly even chance of winning a match/tournament."  I'm not sure what you mean.  The HC system is not intended to equalize, but rather to improve the odds of a less-skilled player against a more-skilled player."  I don't know whether you intend to override this objective, or to incorporate into your data.

Finally, based on my limited personal experience, lots of luck getting the USGA interested in something like this.

Matt Schoolfield

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2024, 03:52:53 PM »
The HC system is not intended to equalize, but rather to improve the odds of a less-skilled player against a more-skilled player.
Wait, is this written somewhere?
« Last Edit: July 01, 2024, 04:04:22 PM by Matt Schoolfield »
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A.G._Crockett

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2024, 04:09:53 PM »
The HC system is not intended to equalize, but rather to improve the odds of a less-skilled player against a more-skilled player.
Wait, is this written somewhere?


I believe the actual wording is “fair and equitable”.
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

Joe Zucker

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2024, 04:12:47 PM »
If I only played away courses, I would shoot a lot lower. I worked that out last year… not sure how it would translate to handicap though.


Can you elaborate?  If you play consistently better on away courses, what’s going on at your home course?  In my experience, such results would be unusual, bordering on unique.


I would expect this to be the case if your home course is Butler National or Oakmont..


Wild hitter who's a member at Sahalee? Only way I see this going like this is if your game is deeply unsuited to your course. Or as you say someone who plays somewhere extremely difficult.


I have a buddy who falls into this category. He is extremely long (near 200mph ball speed) and our home course is shorty and tight.  His greatest strength is reasonably accurate 350 yard drives and he can only hit those on 4-5 holes.  On other courses, his advantage is more accessible.

Tommy Williamsen

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2024, 04:59:27 PM »
The more I play other courses, the more the difference between success at home vs away diminishes. The different grasses, sand, firmness, etc., are easier to negotiate. Some seniors at my club only play home matches because they play so poorly away.
Where there is no love, put love; there you will find love.
St. John of the Cross

"Deep within your soul-space is a magnificent cathedral where you are sweet beyond telling." Rumi

Carl Johnson

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #21 on: July 01, 2024, 07:12:31 PM »
The HC system is not intended to equalize, but rather to improve the odds of a less-skilled player against a more-skilled player.
Wait, is this written somewhere?


I believe the actual wording is “fair and equitable”.


Rule 1 of the Rules of Handicapping does use the "fair and equitable basis" language.  Of course, this begs the question:  What is meant by "fair and equitable."  "Fair and equitable" is not precise when you're dealing with the complexity of handicap calculations, which are precise (whether you agree with them or not).  There should be a data answer.  I'm not going to take the time do to the research right now, but two things stick out.  First, I have in fact read that the HC numbers are not intended to "equalize," both by a general statement to that effect, and by reference to the way handicaps are calculated.  Common sense says the the lower handicapper will normally play closer to his handicap (consistently) than a high handicapper, and would be expected to win more head-to-head matches, although I can't say for sure this is the basis of my "better odds" theory.  Maybe some experts could chime in here.

Michael Felton

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2024, 02:16:36 PM »
although I can't say for sure this is the basis of my "better odds" theory.  Maybe some experts could chime in here.


Not quite going to cite myself as an expert here, but generally speaking the lower your handicap, the lower the standard deviation of your differentials. If you've heard of the concept of an anticap (would be the average of your worst 8 differentials rather than your best 8), the difference between your handicap and your anticap is likely to be more the higher the underlying numbers are.


If a typical 0 plays a typical 20, the 20 is going to just flat out win regardless of what the 0 does around 2-4 times out of 20. The good side of their top 8 is going to be better than the 0's good side for the most part. The higher 4 scores in the 20's top 8 they're going to have a pretty good game most of the time. The 0 will win if he produces one of his best 4/20, they'll be close around 8/20 and the 0 will lose if he plays one of his worst 8/20. If the 20 shoots one of the worst 12/20, then the 0 is going to win most of the time. Roughly speaking, I think the 20 wins about 3/20 (very good scores)+3/20 (decent scores) +1/20 (poor scores) = 7/20 and the 0 will win about 13/20. This is all off the top of my head, not based on actual statistical analysis.

Matt Schoolfield

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #23 on: July 02, 2024, 04:41:06 PM »
Maybe some experts could chime in here.
I'm certainly not a golf handicapping expert, but I do have a non-trivial education in statistics, so I understand the math behind handicapping.

The current system, but selecting the lowest 8 scores instead of the average, rewards consistency, not absolute skill. While you might think that targeting one standard deviation lower would reward 'good' days, since it's one standard deviation for everyone, it sort of doesn't matter except the optics of putting people 'above net par' whatever that means. Where it does matter is that a consistent player's off days will be closer to net par, all things equal, than an inconsistent player.

Where I think the math gets really challenging, is that it's built on the assumption that players have some sort of normal distribution in their rounds. The previous reasoning I've given is based on symmetric distribution, but I'm not entirely sure this would be the correct distribution, as a skewed distribution might map better to performance, or even a different distribution altogether, say, something similar a Poisson distribution (note here that a Poisson distribution is inappropriate for golf scores, but I mean just generally, having a lower-bounded distribution seems very sensible). I think a multi-modal distribution would be something we should expect to account for different distributions of home, away, and competition results (which is effectively the point if this thread anyway).

How does the current system effect those alternative distributions? I'm not sure. I'd probably have to think about it quite a bit. The good news is that the USGA is now collecting data from all golfer via the GHIN app, which means this isn't a philosophical problem, because we can actually look at the distributions! We could even look at distributions of player distributions. This means that now is very much not the time to stick to tradition for tradition's sake. We should be updating our handicapping systems using this data for create the results that we are looking for.

What we want from handicapping results is more of a philosophical question. It's one where I've argued here, and will continue to argue here, that any handicapping system that does not strive to distribute victories equally across players makes no sense. I'm sure many folks would/will argue with me on this point, but I cannot understand any reasoning that says "we want to give weaker players a helping hand, but not an equal playing field." I could see why some people would want skilled players to get more victories, but then why use the handicapping system at all. If it's a system we are all agreeing to use, it seems pointless to create one that does not aim to distribute victories to everyone in the room. Literally any "but I don't want to lose to someone who I'm better than" can be solved in that scenario with using a handicap percentage over a full handicap.

Where I think there is room for debate is whether and how we limit variance in results. I've discussed earlier that somewhat limiting variance probably makes sense if we want to distribute victories, because if variance isn't punished, we should expect the highest variance players to win much more often.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2024, 04:53:53 PM by Matt Schoolfield »
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Erik J. Barzeski

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Re: If you only play your home course, is your handicap too low?
« Reply #24 on: July 02, 2024, 05:49:08 PM »
If a typical 0 plays a typical 20, the 20 is going to just flat out win regardless of what the 0 does around 2-4 times out of 20. The good side of their top 8 is going to be better than the 0's good side for the most part. The higher 4 scores in the 20's top 8 they're going to have a pretty good game most of the time. The 0 will win if he produces one of his best 4/20, they'll be close around 8/20 and the 0 will lose if he plays one of his worst 8/20. If the 20 shoots one of the worst 12/20, then the 0 is going to win most of the time. Roughly speaking, I think the 20 wins about 3/20 (very good scores)+3/20 (decent scores) +1/20 (poor scores) = 7/20 and the 0 will win about 13/20. This is all off the top of my head, not based on actual statistical analysis.
It's not that high - 65%. It's in the 50s, but the lower handicapper does still win more than they lose one-on-one. Used to be the "bonus for excellence" helped that a bit… now the move to 8/20 helps that as you note.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

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