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Matt_Cohn

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Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« on: June 22, 2024, 12:54:33 PM »
Yesterday I played Ruby Hill in Pleasanton, CA. The par 4's there are of very similar lengths (430, 450, 469, 435, 467, 473, 464, 456, 436, 414), so I plugged them into a standard deviation calculator and got 18.7 yards.

For comparison, Pine Valley's par 4's (421, 368, 499, 394, 326, 458, 397, 337, 486, 475, 345, 483) have a standard deviation of 60.3 yards.


I posted this elsewhere and Tim Gavrich countered with Pinecrest in Avon Park, FL which absolutely blows Ruby Hill out of the water with a standard deviation of just 9.1 yards(!) amongst its par 4's (403, 403, 396, 402, 376, 384, 384, 384, 396, 393). Surely this is the absolute lowest for an 18 hole course.

Here's an online standard deviation calculator; use the Population result and feel free to report any interesting findings on this thread, whether they be high or low!

Blake Conant

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2024, 01:16:48 PM »
Old Barnwell standard deviation (from back tees):


par 4s (305 385 450 460 455 370 315 455 405 285 430) is 62.5.


Par 3s (185 230 135) is 38.8


Par 5s (535 535 625 545) is 37.7

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +2/-1
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2024, 01:48:33 PM »
Old Barnwell standard deviation (from back tees):

Par 5s (535 535 625 545) is 37.7


If you've got three par-5's that are almost exactly the same length, and the one long one produces a big "standard deviation", then I think maybe it's the wrong formula to use for calculating variety.

Blake Conant

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2024, 02:25:39 PM »
Old Barnwell standard deviation (from back tees):

Par 5s (535 535 625 545) is 37.7


If you've got three par-5's that are almost exactly the same length, and the one long one produces a big "standard deviation", then I think maybe it's the wrong formula to use for calculating variety.


Ya that points out a pretty big flaw in the logic. When looked at in a vacuum, SD doesn’t mean much.


I would not have guessed 1 and 12 were the same length and 16 only 10 yards longer. Those three play quite a bit different from one another, so standard deviation be damned.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2024, 02:35:26 PM by Blake Conant »

Mike Nuzzo

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2024, 08:15:09 PM »

Not the best formula and still informative

George Thomas ideal course (6600)
325 350 375 405 410 425 430 440 450 460 475
SD 44

CB MacDonald ideal course (6017)
300 320 340 350 360 370 380 400 400 420 450
SD 42

Year 2010 scorecards:

The Old Course (6566)
307 316 318 351 352 354 359 370 374 398 401 411 419 461
SD 42

Champions (7212)
416 424 425 431 431 440 448 450 453 455 460
SD 14

Wolf Point (6500)
271 282 313 341 359 384 399 423 432 444 485
SD 65
Thinking of Bob, Rihc, Bill, George, Neil, Dr. Childs, & Tiger.

Matt_Cohn

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2024, 08:20:43 PM »
There’s no single statistic that can perfectly describe any data set, but when it comes to quantifying variety, standard deviation is as good as it gets. Yes, a single outlier will skew it, but the example of one particularly long three shot hole is not such a big outlier that it renders the number unreliable.

Pacific dunes is 50.3 for par fours.

Maybe this thread will inspire a new Doak scale for variety!  ;D
« Last Edit: June 23, 2024, 12:53:27 AM by Matt_Cohn »

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2024, 11:24:12 PM »
James Braid has a reputation for long and short par-4's. At Golspie GC there five par-4's ranging from 283 to 347 and four par-4's from 396 to 457. No par-4's between 350 and 395!

Using the calculator the variance is 58.95.

 Brora GC is very much the same. The par-4's are either 280 to 345 or 399 to 438. Again no par-4's between 350 and 395.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2024, 11:44:58 PM by David_Tepper »

Brian Finn

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2024, 07:45:34 AM »
Standard deviation is more useful / accurate for larger sample size, so I think it works ok for par 4s, but not 3s, 5s.
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Ally Mcintosh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2024, 08:31:21 AM »
There’s no single statistic that can perfectly describe any data set, but when it comes to quantifying variety, standard deviation is as good as it gets. Yes, a single outlier will skew it, but the example of one particularly long three shot hole is not such a big outlier that it renders the number unreliable.

Pacific dunes is 50.3 for par fours.

Maybe this thread will inspire a new Doak scale for variety!  ;D


A fun exercise but defining a methodology for variety is one sure way to stifle variety.

Joe Hancock

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2024, 10:20:20 AM »
This is the kind of thing I struggle to find relevant in any way. It completely ignores prevailing winds, upslope/ downslope in the landing zone, overall elevation change, turf type, climatology, etc. How anyone latches onto this as a way to think it helps identify one course as being better than another is incomprehensible to me.


But, my comprehension has been called into question many times over a 42 year marriage….
" What the hell is the point of architecture and excellence in design if a "clever" set up trumps it all?" Peter Pallotta, June 21, 2016

"People aren't picking a side of the fairway off a tee because of a randomly internally contoured green ."  jeffwarne, February 24, 2017

Ryan Book

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Highest/lowest standard deviation of hole lengths
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2024, 12:05:12 PM »
Currently working on a project regarding a similar statistic, but based on the data I found for that stat, I gathered that Kapalua's Plantation course would also have an absurd standard deviation for its par fours.


That course has a standard deviation of 75.234 yards....and that's using the scorecard from the 6,077 yard tees.
"Cops are an abomination." - C.B. Macdonald and/or Jello Biafra

@BethpageBlackMetal

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