On replies #27 and 47-49 of this thread, some have suggested a writing period of 2 years after opening day of any new course before a course could be included on a TopXXX list. The stated reason for such waiting period was to avoid the "recently bias" and "hype" that people felt often comes during initial days, causing courses to enter these list too high and then fade away. Also stated was a sense that there was something unfair about rating a course before it is officially open.
On an earlier post I answered the latter claim by pointing out that owners/managers/of these courses are taking a risk by allowing raters early access as it is likely that such play would be prior to full grow in of the course. I would be interested in hearing how a course's initial rating is benefited by raters playing it in a pre-opening preview round.
But the larger point I would like to make here's is that over the past 30 years or so, the actual history of new course ratings is that far more courses moved up in the ratings for their second listing than moved down! As some of you know, I have built and continue to maintain a spreadsheet with all of the all of the credible World 100 and USA 100/200/400 lists published since this phenomena started in 1966. The 49 World 100 lists I have on the spreadsheet are:
GOLF Magazine (23 lists 1979-2023)
Golf Digest (3 lists 2014-18)
Top100golfcourses.com (10 lists 2006-22)
Ran's Custodians (4 lists 147-150)
Rolex 1000 (2 lists Editions 1&2)
Golf World (UK) (2 lists 2010-11)
Links Magazine (1 list...final 2014 listing)
Golf Architecture (1 Architect survey...about 10 years ago)
Outpost Club (2 lists 2020-22)
MacWood Spoof (1 list published on GCA...fictional 1939 list)
So I looked at all the "Modern" (1960 cut off) courses that made their first appearance on a GOLF mag list in 1995 or later...there have been a total of 41 courses...of those 41:
29 moved UP two years after their initial listing (the next edition)
10 moved DOWN two years after, and
2 stayed at the same level:
specifically:
MOVED UP:
Shanqin Bay 78-->47
9 Bridges 95-->60
Ellerston 73-->62
Barn Bou Dunes 49-->35
BB Lost Farm 82-->72
Tara Iti 29-->27
Les Bordes (Hanse) 97-->83
Oitavos Dunes 88-->68
San Lorenzo 100-->56
Valderamma 86-->51
European Club 98-->91
St Patricks 55-->49
Loch Lomond 44-->39
Trump Int Scot 50-->48
Cabot Cliffs 50-->43
Cabot Links 82-->75
Daiman Dunes 58-->52
Spyglass 93-->80
World Woods 66-->64
Ocean Forest 81-->77
Nanea 76-->75
Nantucket 98-->91
Rock Creek 99-->84
Sand Hills 17-->14
Friars Hd 74->33 (biggest jump)
Bandon Dunes 80-->70
Pacific Dunes 26-->19
Kiawah 79-->56
Whistl Strts 65-->50
MOVED DOWN:
Cape Kidnappers 27-->41
Kauri Cliffs 49-->58
Kingbarns 46-->65
Cabo-Ocean 68-->70
Ballyneal 82-->83
Wade Hamp 66-->77
Shadow Ck 59-->70
Dbl Eagle 74-->81
Old MacDon 74-->88
Cham Bay 77-->87
Stayed Same:
Ayodah 76-->76
Castle Stuart 56-->56
Waterville also stayed the same but that was a Renovation.
Based on the above...waiting 2 years would have caused a greater drop on average!!
As a side note, I was able to play Point Hardy on Nov 9. As that was after our GM ballots were due, I could not vote on Pt Hardy...but I think its #76 rating was about right.
One other thing...I distribute this spreadsheet whenever a new version is ready to about 300 people...if any of you want to be added to the distribution list, please send me a private message with your email address.