Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

[Tim Martin]

The Justin Thomas Ryder Cup pick is a head scratcher for me. I know he has a terrific record but the timing doesn’t add up for purposes of current form and Glover should have gotten the nod IMO. Johnson could come away looking like a genius but may also suffer the same fate as Wadkins/Strange.

[Rob Marshall]

Glover got screwed. A lot of pressure on JT.

[Ben Hollerbach]

The title works both direction in JT vs. Glover.

JT's ceiling is much higher than Glover in the Ryder Cup, but their floors are probably about the same right now. From the optics perspective of a Captain, If you pick Glover and he plays amazing you look like a genius, If he plays horrible people will question why you didn't pick JT. On the other hand if you pick JT and he plays amazing, of course he would, and if he plays poorly, well you had to take the risk.

Lucas wasn't exactly mowing down fields for the first 6 months of the season, he's been hot for the past 6 weeks and that's it. There is a higher likelihood he'll go back to the player he's been for the past 6 years by the time the Ryder Cup kicks off.

That being said. I still think JT is a liability and suspect he'll be on a match by match basis. If he plays poorly in his first session, you probably won't see him again until Sunday.

[Tom_Doak]

Ryder Cup captains almost always pick the veteran they know over the youngster who might "feel the pressure".  They don't seem to understand that those young guys don't know enough to feel the pressure!  It's one of the reasons the Europeans keep beating us with "untested" players.


To me, one of the most interesting aspects of the Ryder Cup is that it's the only time you see guys who aren't playing well trying to grind it out under pressure.  Usually, when they are playing badly, the pros are at home by Friday night -- or at least they're not on TV, because they aren't in contention.  But in the Ryder Cup there are nearly always 3-4 guys who aren't playing well, and have no place to hide.


The over/under on the number of points JT picks up at the Ryder Cup:  1 1/2.  And it's only that high because someone might bail him out in the better ball matches.

[Wayne_Kozun]

Lucas wasn't exactly mowing down fields for the first 6 months of the season, he's been hot for the past 6 weeks and that's it. There is a higher likelihood he'll go back to the player he's been for the past 6 years by the time the Ryder Cup kicks off.

Exactly.  Glover didn't have a top 20 finish until the Canadian Open in June.  I believe he would have been the first Ryder Cup player in a long time, maybe ever, who didn't play in any majors the season of the Ryder Cup because he didn't qualify for any of them.

[John Kavanaugh]

Glover isn’t deciding who gets the Saudi money.

[Rob Marshall]

Lucas wasn't exactly mowing down fields for the first 6 months of the season, he's been hot for the past 6 weeks and that's it. There is a higher likelihood he'll go back to the player he's been for the past 6 years by the time the Ryder Cup kicks off.

Exactly.  Glover didn't have a top 20 finish until the Canadian Open in June.  I believe he would have been the first Ryder Cup player in a long time, maybe ever, who didn't play in any majors the season of the Ryder Cup because he didn't qualify for any of them.

Yup, then he started with the new putter and has played great ever since. Lanny went with “horses for courses” and picked Curtis in 95. How did that work out…….

[Ronald Montesano]

I've considered all the possible "If not JT, then ..." scenarios over the past 144 hours. I really wanted there to be someone other than JT to support. When I sit back and think about it, there isn't anyone. Not Cam, not Keegan, not Denny, not Lucas, not Finau.

JT has one of the best caddies on tour on his bag. Bones has plenty of international experience, and he will get something out of the two-time PGA champion. This is a PGA of America team, and that explains why only Koepka was considered from VIL.

JT cannot play any worse than he has the last few months. In addition, he'll be partnered in four of five potential matches. My guess is that he will play fourball on Friday afternoon. He has a slightly-better record at fourball than foursomes, and no reason to put him in the limelight, since he is likely viewed as the last of six picks.

JT shines on Sundays in Ryder Cup play. There is a chance that he could be the Curtis Strange/Jay Haas that falters, and another chance that he might not.

I'm happy for Burns. He was slighted by the USGA for a Walker Cup spot, despite being the top NCAA golfer that year. I hope for his success.

As for Europe, I anticipate that Rahm will get one Spaniard (possibly Larrazabal) selected. It will be a young team, so Fleetwood and possible Lowry will also be chosen. That leaves five other players. Be honest: who would you pick from the Hojgaard brothers, Yannick Paul, Adrian Meronk, Rob Macintyre, Victor Perez, et al? There really aren't any obvious selections from them.

This should be a very entertaining series of matches. USA has everything to lose, and Europe has everything to gain. 

[Carl Johnson]

A captain can't win.  It's the worst job.  I speak from the experience of having to (o.k., agreeing to) select members of a state athletic team for an international competition.  I was asked because I was familiar with the many candidates.  The guys (they were men) you pick are pleased; the ones you don't, ones who you think of as friends, are not.  Although ZJ is not one of my favorites as a golf fan, I'm not going to second guess him.

[Tim Martin]

JT cannot play any worse than he has the last few months.

If that is the rationale for picking Thomas then the U.S. team is in trouble.

[A.G._Crockett]

Perhaps my perspective is skewed by coaching HS basketball for 40 years, but the 12th player on a team isn’t likely to cause you to win or lose by their play.  So getting the 12th best player might not be important, but getting the beast PERSON available might be.  For that last spot, you need people who buy into the team concept hear and soul much more than you need a marginally better player. 




And, of course, we don’t know what conversations Zach Johnson might have had with Thomas and with the other players.  I don’t think it’s out of the question that he made it clear to Thomas that he was going to be there for reasons other than on the course, and I don’t think it’s impossible that he talked to some of the other guys about the last spot and asked who THEY wanted in the team room.

[David Wuthrich]

Ryder Cup captains almost always pick the veteran they know over the youngster who might "feel the pressure".  They don't seem to understand that those young guys don't know enough to feel the pressure!  It's one of the reasons the Europeans keep beating us with "untested" players.


To me, one of the most interesting aspects of the Ryder Cup is that it's the only time you see guys who aren't playing well trying to grind it out under pressure.  Usually, when they are playing badly, the pros are at home by Friday night -- or at least they're not on TV, because they aren't in contention.  But in the Ryder Cup there are nearly always 3-4 guys who aren't playing well, and have no place to hide.


The over/under on the number of points JT picks up at the Ryder Cup:  1 1/2.  And it's only that high because someone might bail him out in the better ball matches.

I'll take the under!! 

[David Cronan]

Two things come to mind regarding JT being picked for this year’s Ryder Cup:


1. His last tournament round took place August 6. The Ryder Cup is nearly 2 months later. That’s a lot of time to “right the ship” for a 30 year old guy who was the #1 player in the world a few years back and presently sits, what, #26 despite a very off year. Gives him time to work on his putting as well as clear his head of bad stuff.


2. As Mr. Crockett pointed out, it’s probable that Zach Johnson had conversations with those that made the team outright about their thoughts on who would be the best addition to the team. And I’m sure their opinions on the matter had some influence on all 6 wildcards. They want to win and I don’t think it’s a popularity contest.


And I’ll take the over (1.5 pts).

[Tim Martin]

Perhaps my perspective is skewed by coaching HS basketball for 40 years, but the 12th player on a team isn’t likely to cause you to win or lose by their play.  So getting the 12th best player might not be important, but getting the beast PERSON available might be.  For that last spot, you need people who buy into the team concept hear and soul much more than you need a marginally better player. 

The 12th man on a high school basketball team is not guaranteed any playing time. Thomas will probably play in at least three matches but regardless is guaranteed to be out there on Sunday when everything is on the line.

[David Cronan]

Team unity/harmony cannot be overrated. Just look at the 79 European team and how  Mark James and Ken Brown’s actions/attitudes hurt that team. Now, I’m not saying the European team was poised to win that contest, but the aforementioned apparently acted deplorably. Interestingly, James was selected to captain the 99 team and Brown was one of his Vice Captains.

[John Kavanaugh]

This is bigger than the Cup. The future of the Tour will be hammered out in a perfectly intense relaxed environment. Even the wives can chime in, as they should.

[Anthony Butler]

The over/under on the number of points JT picks up at the Ryder Cup:  1 1/2.  And it's only that high because someone might bail him out in the better ball matches.

I'd take that bet.. I need to win back those Pro V1s I lost on the Rio bet.. 

[Kalen Braley]

I'm guessing the actual reason why he was picked is because he's Jordan's buddy.

And when those two play as a team they are 8-2 in past RC and PC events.

Not sure Zach needed anymore justification than that.

[Anthony Butler]

I'm guessing the actual reason why he was picked is because he's Jordan's buddy.

And when those two play as a team they are 8-2 in past RC and PC events.

Not sure Zach needed anymore justification than that.

The Euro Team looks pretty iffy from 8-12 right now so I can see Rahm, Hovland, Fitzpatrick, Hatton etc. having to front up for all 5 matches. That should provide an advantage for the US Team. I predict they will get their first victory on European soil since 1993.

[A.G._Crockett]

Perhaps my perspective is skewed by coaching HS basketball for 40 years, but the 12th player on a team isn’t likely to cause you to win or lose by their play.  So getting the 12th best player might not be important, but getting the beast PERSON available might be.  For that last spot, you need people who buy into the team concept hear and soul much more than you need a marginally better player. 

The 12th man on a high school basketball team is not guaranteed any playing time. Thomas will probably play in at least three matches but regardless is guaranteed to be out there on Sunday when everything is on the line.

I think I understand the difference quite clearly, but thank you.


I’m assuming that Zach Johnson believes that what Thomas will bring to the team room will exceed his on course results, good or bad.  There are players in every sport that pump life into teams and get others to play better, above and beyond their own personal playing contributions, good or bad.


Either golf teams are like teams in other sports, or they aren’t. Having been a college tennis player and also having coached both golf and tennis teams, I think they are they same; there are players who contribute beyond their own personal results. They just do, and a coach (or captain) that doesn’t factor that in can miss opportunities to get better.


I believe that, and like the pick.  Others are free, of course, to feel otherwise.

[Jerry Kluger]

Ryder Cup is match play and we are trying to decide who the best players for that format would be best upon their most relevant performances so far as captain's picks go. JT most recently played at The Wyndham and he came to the 18th hole knowing what he needed to pick up the necessary points to qualify for the first round of the Tour Championship and what did he do - he hit his tee shot dead left into the trees so his performance under pressure was not the best.


Moikawa had been struggling with his game and made it to the Tour Championship and it looked like he had finally gotten his game together after 2 solid rounds and what did he do on the weekend - he shot 72 and 73 which were two of the worst rounds shot on the weekend. 


So I think you could make a good argument that picking either of them was not good judgement rather it was bring the gang.


As an aside I have never really figured out why serious golf fans would attend a Ryder Cup.  The first two days has four groups in the morning and four in the afternoon and there are tens of thousands of attendees so how much golf can you really see? The Tour Championship has the smallest field of the year and they had 15 twosomes with crowds limited to far fewer attendees than the Ryder Cup.  My friend's company would host clients at every Ryder Cup and after the first that he attended he made the decision that he would bring them to their hospitality location and then go back to the hotel and watch it on TV.  There is a reason why the crowds are so rowdy - most of the time they have nothing to do but drink. 

[mike_beene]

I was born in Germany to American parents and have never figured out who to root for.

[Tim Martin]

There’s an article dated 8/31/2023 from Golf Digest with the following headline-
Fred Couples Says “Keegan Bradley Not Being In Tight with Ryder Cup Teammates Factored Into Snub.” It’s interesting to get an “inside baseball” perspective and I would think that the comment would apply to Lucas Glover as well.

[archie_struthers]

 


I'm a bit of a Glover fan. Drives it really good and if he putts a little is a force. Golf is a solitary game but if i ever gets close to a team event it's the Ryder Cup.


JT might be come up huge as a pick but Zach is definitely rolling the dice on this one. Makes for interesting discussion for sure.

[Niall C]

The Euro Team looks pretty iffy from 8-12 right now so I can see Rahm, Hovland, Fitzpatrick, Hatton etc. having to front up for all 5 matches. That should provide an advantage for the US Team. I predict they will get their first victory on European soil since 1993.

Anthony


That has ever been the way with the European team and they have done OK in the past but I think you are correct with your prediction for this time round. To be honest, I think Johnson could have picked Justin Thomas's grandmother and the US team would still have more than enough in hand to win comfortably.


Niall