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Wayne_Kozun

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OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« on: August 08, 2023, 05:47:29 PM »
Does anyone know if the USGA or other bodies have done studies to determine if golfers tend to score lower at their home course vs other courses?  Surely the USGA and R&A (and Golf Canada, etc) would have the data to be able to determine a golfer's home course handicap vs away handicap and see if golfers tend to score better at their home course.  But, of course, this depends on the slope/stroke ratings being "fair and proper" between the various courses.
One would think that your home course handicap would be lower but it would be interesting to see the data.

Ken Moum

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2023, 05:55:06 PM »
I think your assumption is probably right.


But am also pretty convinced that there's not enough spread in bogey ratings, which means there's not enough difference in the slope between "hard" courses and "easy" ones.


As a result,  players at those easy courses will never get enough strokes from the ones who play hard courses.


Doesn't affect scratch golfers,  but two 15s...
Over time, the guy in the ideal position derives an advantage, and delivering him further  advantage is not worth making the rest of the players suffer at the expense of fun, variety, and ultimately cost -- Jeff Warne, 12-08-2010

Wayne_Kozun

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2023, 06:10:43 PM »
As a result,  players at those easy courses will never get enough strokes from the ones who play hard courses.
I agree and I have tried to put this into action buy placing pari-mutuel bets on players from hard clubs in member-guest tournaments.  So far it hasn't worked, but the sample size is pretty small.

Michael Felton

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2023, 06:15:26 PM »
This is based on the old English system and I think for the ladies, but supposedly some analysis done by my county suggested that home course advantage was worth about 3 shots on average. But even then there's a difference between playing a course completely blind and having played it a few times over the years. Or even having played it a lot over the years.


Having said that, sometimes I play better when I don't know the course. I don't know where not to hit it. A few times I've hit drives that wound up in the perfect spot five yards from a hazard that I would never have dared to threaten if I knew it was there. Also the memories of bad shots can linger if you play somewhere a lot. So *shrug*

Jim Sherma

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2023, 06:17:13 PM »
I think data from an organization like the Golf Association of Philadelphia that runs play days where golfers play other courses would allow this to be tested. These play days attract players across a large range of handicaps. I believe the data will show that handicaps do not tend to travel well. I find that if you shoot your handicap you have a reasonable chance of being in the money. It's also the only place I've seen a PCC of +3 on a perfectly clear day with no wind (Lancaster CC).

Matt Schoolfield

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2023, 06:40:43 PM »
I do not think they do, nor should we expect them to.

Different courses test different skills. A person who frequents forested parkland courses that where trees are a concern, but wind is not, should be expected to play more poorly on a high-wind links course (and vice versa). The hazards we regularly practice against are the ones where our skill sets will end up. These skill sets will not travel perfectly.

Players who bomb and gouge will likely play much more poorly on courses that punish large dispersion patterns, were as players who are masters of control will likely play much worse on wide open courses that demand more power as their penal element.

Thus players can raise or lower their handicap simply by playing courses that suit them vs ones that do not. My home course is Gleneagles SF, but I have much lower differentials at Poplar Creek and much higher differentials at Harding Park.

I think with machine learning, we have the capability to create much more accurate course ratings across all skill levels, but instituting an algorithm would effectively remove the USGA from being the arbiter of those aspects of the game.
 
« Last Edit: August 08, 2023, 07:31:03 PM by Matt Schoolfield »
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Wayne_Kozun

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2023, 06:50:30 PM »
I don't know that you need AI/ML to do this.  Assuming that you had the data you should be able to do this using more traditional stats measures like regressions.  If you have hundreds/thousands of scores from a course with golfers of varying abilities then you can calculate what the slope and stroke rating should be.  Presumably the stroke rating is the average that scratch golfers shoot on the course for the given tee.  And then look at how scores go up with a golfer's handicap.
I wouldn't be surprised if the USGA already does this.  Once you build the code it should be pretty easy to run for each course, assuming that you have access to the database of golf scores and golfers.

Matt Schoolfield

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2023, 07:11:01 PM »
I don't know that you need AI/ML to do this.  Assuming that you had the data you should be able to do this using more traditional stats measures like regressions. 
I'm merely suggesting a simple collaborative filtering algorithm that can create both player handicaps and course ratings (adjusting for expected results given different types of courses), based on players' previous scores.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2023, 07:24:57 PM by Matt Schoolfield »
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Ken Moum

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2023, 07:46:48 PM »
The USGA is supposed to be collecting this kind of data. IIRC part of the rationale behind the new app. was that daily and hole-by-hole posting would allow improvements in the way courses are compared.


Or perhaps I just hoped it was the case.
Over time, the guy in the ideal position derives an advantage, and delivering him further  advantage is not worth making the rest of the players suffer at the expense of fun, variety, and ultimately cost -- Jeff Warne, 12-08-2010

Matt Schoolfield

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2023, 07:51:29 PM »
The USGA is supposed to be collecting this kind of data. IIRC part of the rationale behind the new app. was that daily and hole-by-hole posting would allow improvements in the way courses are compared.


Or perhaps I just hoped it was the case.


My understanding is that this was simply to adjust for local conditions, but I certainly hope it there to create more accurate scratch and bogey ratings. Though, the concept of a scratch and bogey rating is pretty anathema to the type of system I’m proposing.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2023, 07:53:43 PM by Matt Schoolfield »
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Thomas Dai

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2023, 04:03:52 AM »
Despite it being termed as WHS isn't the interpretation of a scoring round and even scores on individual holes plus the frequency of posting different in different parts of the World?
atb

Ken Moum

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2023, 04:06:34 AM »
Despite it being termed as WHS isn't the interpretation of a scoring round and even scores on individual holes plus the frequency of posting different in different parts of the World?
atb


It appears that's the case, but when I heard we were exporting our badly broken system to the world, I predicted that players in the UK would find it mostly unacceptable.


I think I was right.
Over time, the guy in the ideal position derives an advantage, and delivering him further  advantage is not worth making the rest of the players suffer at the expense of fun, variety, and ultimately cost -- Jeff Warne, 12-08-2010

A.G._Crockett

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2023, 07:54:40 AM »
Even if a golfer was playing ALL his rounds on his home course, he would only be expected to reach his handicap once every 5 rounds. 


So when that same golfer goes to an less familiar course, having only a 20% likelihood of matching his index to begin with, it shouldn’t be at all surprising that he doesn’t reach that number.  For a bunch of very obvious reasons, the 20% number goes out the window on an unfamiliar course.  It’s just logical arithmetic, and I don't know what benefit there would be from any system that gave separate home and away indexes.


Fwiw, most of the conversation I hear about handicaps from one course or club not “traveling well” comes from guys who have vanity handicaps to begin with. But that aside, guys who play a lot of courses have slightly higher indexes that reflect that, and their indexes DO travel better. 


When I put together lineups for interclub matches, I look for certain guys to play on the road, and they are the guys who play lots of away rounds and have indexes that match that.  There are other guys on our roster who I ONLY put in the lineup for home matches, primarily because they play almost all of their rounds on our home course.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2023, 08:16:30 AM by A.G._Crockett »
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

A.G._Crockett

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2023, 08:11:19 AM »
I think data from an organization like the Golf Association of Philadelphia that runs play days where golfers play other courses would allow this to be tested. These play days attract players across a large range of handicaps. I believe the data will show that handicaps do not tend to travel well. I find that if you shoot your handicap you have a reasonable chance of being in the money. It's also the only place I've seen a PCC of +3 on a perfectly clear day with no wind (Lancaster CC).
If you "shoot your handicap", you're going to be in the money anywhere, home or away, every time.
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

Brett Meyer

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2023, 08:15:36 AM »
I haven't been a handicap keeper until the last few years so maybe I don't understand the system very well, but are people only recording scores for the purpose of their handicap from their home course? Or are most people just playing their home course? Because I play different courses and I count all rounds I play toward my handicap calculations. If I play a new course and shoot a bad score, well that's one of the 12/20 rounds that I get to drop. So my handicap travels just fine because I travel and my handicap travels with it--in fact, it probably travels least well back to my home course (University of Maryland), which has too low of a course and slope rating.

So I just don't understand handicaps not traveling unless people only play one course or aren't counting rounds on other courses. And if it's the latter, I didn't think that was permitted under the system.

David Cronan

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2023, 08:38:51 AM »
I haven't been a handicap keeper until the last few years so maybe I don't understand the system very well, but are people only recording scores for the purpose of their handicap from their home course? Or are most people just playing their home course? Because I play different courses and I count all rounds I play toward my handicap calculations. If I play a new course and shoot a bad score, well that's one of the 12/20 rounds that I get to drop. So my handicap travels just fine because I travel and my handicap travels with it--in fact, it probably travels least well back to my home course (University of Maryland), which has too low of a course and slope rating.

So I just don't understand handicaps not traveling unless people only play one course or aren't counting rounds on other courses. And if it's the latter, I didn't think that was permitted under the system.


Brett,


I don't play much anymore, but when I did play, and belonged to a couple of clubs, I probably played 90%+ of my rounds at those 2 courses where I was a member and I'm not sure that I was out of the norm, at least here in the States.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2023, 09:35:35 AM by David Cronan »

jeffwarne

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2023, 08:43:13 AM »
People that play golf, i.e., they putt out,play it down, hit provisionals, post every score that's practical, play competitions,ect.will always travel better than the other 98%.
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

A.G._Crockett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2023, 10:05:13 AM »
I haven't been a handicap keeper until the last few years so maybe I don't understand the system very well, but are people only recording scores for the purpose of their handicap from their home course? Or are most people just playing their home course? Because I play different courses and I count all rounds I play toward my handicap calculations. If I play a new course and shoot a bad score, well that's one of the 12/20 rounds that I get to drop. So my handicap travels just fine because I travel and my handicap travels with it--in fact, it probably travels least well back to my home course (University of Maryland), which has too low of a course and slope rating.

So I just don't understand handicaps not traveling unless people only play one course or aren't counting rounds on other courses. And if it's the latter, I didn't think that was permitted under the system.


I agree with everything you have written; the extent to which a handicap “travels” well is based largely on whether or not it’s based on rounds at multiple courses, or only at a home club.  The former is going to be more accurate; the latter is going to be at least somewhat lower.  And we won’t even get into the intangibles of coping with uncertainty about layups, club selection, etc; being used to that and comfortable with it when playing a less familiar course is a big deal that can’t really be quantified.


But I’m curious about why you say your home course has too low of a course rating and slope.  The same team rated your course that also rated others around it, using the same worksheets and formulas, and your course is rerated at least every 10 years, and likely more often than that.  The only reason I can think of that players say that about a course is that it’s just another way of saying the same thing; that they have trouble playing to their handicap in away rounds.


Which is, again, a misunderstanding of the system.  For any given round, home OR away, you only have a 20% chance of playing to your index anyway, and the odds of that become much lower depending on how unfamiliar the away course is. 


At my home course, I know EXACTLY where to aim my tee shots, where NOT to hit driver, which pins NOT to attack, and so on.  That doesn’t make me more likely to play to my index; that’s still 20%.  BUT it likely does mean that my AVERAGE score is going to be in a tighter range, as well as a bit lower than in my away rounds.  That doesn’t mean my course is rated incorrectly; it’s just the nature of knowing a course, or not.
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

Ed Brzezowski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2023, 11:27:25 AM »
I think data from an organization like the Golf Association of Philadelphia that runs play days where golfers play other courses would allow this to be tested. These play days attract players across a large range of handicaps. I believe the data will show that handicaps do not tend to travel well. I find that if you shoot your handicap you have a reasonable chance of being in the money. It's also the only place I've seen a PCC of +3 on a perfectly clear day with no wind (Lancaster CC).




Let's see if that data is available.
We have a pool and a pond, the pond would be good for you.

Jim Adkisson

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2023, 11:45:43 AM »
As a member of two “clubs without property” I have found my handicap travels better than competitors who play most of their rounds at exclusively one club.


I had tried a membership at a club with 2 courses in 2008-09 and got bored playing the same courses ad nauseam….in my metro area, we have enough interesting municipal, daily fee and CC for the day courses (as well as access to play the CC’s) to play multiple rounds each week and only need to repeat every 2 or 3 months.


In state and regional competitions my handicap reflects a better ability to adjust than many other players who get used to their home conditions and don’t regularly adjust their game to the course they are playing that day. 

A.G._Crockett

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2023, 12:19:10 PM »
As a member of two “clubs without property” I have found my handicap travels better than competitors who play most of their rounds at exclusively one club.


I had tried a membership at a club with 2 courses in 2008-09 and got bored playing the same courses ad nauseam….in my metro area, we have enough interesting municipal, daily fee and CC for the day courses (as well as access to play the CC’s) to play multiple rounds each week and only need to repeat every 2 or 3 months.


In state and regional competitions my handicap reflects a better ability to adjust than many other players who get used to their home conditions and don’t regularly adjust their game to the course they are playing that day.


Bingo.


And I’d add that your index is probably at least marginally higher than a similar player who plays the same course all the time.  That guy will say that handicaps from his club don’t travel well, when the reality is that HE doesn’t travel enough.
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

Jim Sherma

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2023, 01:15:14 PM »
I think data from an organization like the Golf Association of Philadelphia that runs play days where golfers play other courses would allow this to be tested. These play days attract players across a large range of handicaps. I believe the data will show that handicaps do not tend to travel well. I find that if you shoot your handicap you have a reasonable chance of being in the money. It's also the only place I've seen a PCC of +3 on a perfectly clear day with no wind (Lancaster CC).
If you "shoot your handicap", you're going to be in the money anywhere, home or away, every time.


If they are paying only 5 slots out of 100+ players that is not probabilistically accurate. Isn't it supposed to be a 20% chance or so of shooting your handicap. That means that doing so should not consistently put you in the top 5th percentile.

Brett Meyer

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2023, 01:26:41 PM »
But I’m curious about why you say your home course has too low of a course rating and slope.  The same team rated your course that also rated others around it, using the same worksheets and formulas, and your course is rerated at least every 10 years, and likely more often than that.  The only reason I can think of that players say that about a course is that it’s just another way of saying the same thing; that they have trouble playing to their handicap in away rounds.


Which is, again, a misunderstanding of the system.  For any given round, home OR away, you only have a 20% chance of playing to your index anyway, and the odds of that become much lower depending on how unfamiliar the away course is. 


At my home course, I know EXACTLY where to aim my tee shots, where NOT to hit driver, which pins NOT to attack, and so on.  That doesn’t make me more likely to play to my index; that’s still 20%.  BUT it likely does mean that my AVERAGE score is going to be in a tighter range, as well as a bit lower than in my away rounds.  That doesn’t mean my course is rated incorrectly; it’s just the nature of knowing a course, or not.

I hesitate to respond to this at length because it (1) involves knowledge of the University of Maryland golf course and (2) brings up a whole new discussion of how you calculate course and slope ratings, which I also don't know a ton about and which I'm sure has been discussed on here before.

Having said that, my understanding is that the course has a relatively low course and slope rating (~7,000 yards, par 71 from the tips; CR=72.2, SR=124) because it doesn't have a lot of hazards--there are few water hazards, no OB, and generally few opportunities to lose a ball.

But there's a lot more that plays into course difficulty than this. And two things that make Maryland hard are that (1) there are a lot of awkward trees ~150 yards off the tee and narrow corridors that make driving intimidating and (2) the greens are well-bunkered and often benched into the side of hills, which makes for some very difficult pitches if you miss them.

Maybe others don't get intimidated as easily, but I feel that the intimidation factor of trees encroaching near the tee and narrow driving corridors are among the main things that make a course difficult. There are a lot of higher sloped courses with a good amount of water or forest lining the fairways (Maryland mostly has open stands of trees lining fairways) that just don't feel nearly as difficult off the tee to me because the clearings off the tee are ample and the landing areas look wider. Even if there are higher potential scores for a miss, it's easier not to miss in the first place because I'm more comfortable. I don't know if course and slope ratings capture this intimidation factor and maybe it'd be hard to do because not everyone responds the same way, but it's a big factor for me.

I'm sure that the course and slope rating system accounts for bunkering around greens. But I wonder how well it accounts for the severity of green sites. Maryland has a few greens benched into the sides of hills where there aren't too many places to miss where you're guaranteed better than a double bogey and a few where that's probably the best you'll do. No water around the greens, but I'd almost rather land in a pond where I can drop nearby than come 30 yards back down a slope and either duff one and have it roll back to my feet or send it 30 feet past the pin and 3 putt. The course has a handful of the most exacting approach shots that I've seen, even though there are almost no lost ball opportunities near any of the greens.

So I tend to score well on other courses relative to my home course--the opposite of usual. And I conclude from that that University of Maryland has too low of a course and slope rating, perhaps because the system doesn't account well for some of what I've discussed above.

Ed Brzezowski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2023, 01:43:07 PM »
The system accounts for everything you listed. Size of green, topo around the green, the presence of tress in the landing area. Stances the player has for his/her shots.     it all goes into the mix.


ed
We have a pool and a pond, the pond would be good for you.

Philip Caccamise

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Re: OT - Do handicaps travel fairly?
« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2023, 07:23:52 PM »
I think your assumption is probably right.


But am also pretty convinced that there's not enough spread in bogey ratings, which means there's not enough difference in the slope between "hard" courses and "easy" ones.


As a result,  players at those easy courses will never get enough strokes from the ones who play hard courses.


Doesn't affect scratch golfers,  but two 15s...


It is not.


Let's take my home course, Arroyo Trabuco, vs Merion Golf Club. Rating is the same from the member's tees (71.5 vs 71.4) but the slope is 128 vs. 145, as compared to the 'standard bogey' slope of 113.


This means the 'bogey' rating is only 2.7 shots different at 92.4 [par 72] vs 93.1 [par 70]. If you assume ATGC's slope to be reasonable vs. the 'standard bogey' 113 (I would), then Merion's slope should really be around 160-165. It's not 2.7 shots harder for the bogey golfer, it's 8 or 9 shots harder.


I think some handicapping travel issues can be solved quickly by correcting the slope on the high end, thus expanding the whole ladder [and because I'm petty, return the baseline to 100 instead of 113 please]

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