10 years ahead. Crystal ball time.

[Thomas Dai]

How do those posting herein envisage golf being in 10 years time?
Big World so need to consider - High end/echelon courses. Member courses. Rural and rustic courses. Daily Fee courses. Municipal courses. The golf business.

As now?
Increase or decline in playing popularity?
More shorter length or less than 18-holes courses?
Less green and lush?
Will the ball (and/or equipment) have been rolled-back?
More driver-less machine maintenance?
More use of artificial surfaces?
Urban (and/or softball) golf?
Environment factors?
Clubhouse factors?
Gender/age factors?
Governing bodies?
What does your crystal ball say?
Atb

[Adam Lawrence]

It's not quite ten years away now but here's an article I wrote in 2018 on the subject of golf in 2030:

https://www.golfcoursearchitecture.net/content/what-does-the-future-of-golf-course-architecture-hold


And Kurt Huseman of Landscapes Unlimited then wrote this in response to it:

https://www.golfcoursearchitecture.net/content/design-and-build-is-not-the-answer-to-everything

[Charlie Goerges]

I'm pretty curious to read some responses (thanks Adam for the links).


One thing I've noticed when reading analyses of various sports/games/hobbies etc. is that no matter which activity you're talking about, the people in it are pessimistic about their prospects compared to some other similar activity. Obviously we've seen it in golf variously through the years, but everything from baseball to car racing to knitting to woodworking, they're predicting their own falls.

[Max Prokopy]

Barring another pandemic, golf will roughly go as the economy goes.  People will always want to be outdoors with family or friends, and golf represents one of the most accessible options for that.  I expect we'll see more 9-hole options. 


I expect that the remote and hardcore golf resorts, ala Bandon, will plateau in number.  There's only so many people willing to spend 5-7 days going out of their way, and the current options are so spectacular that it's hard to imagine keeping up the recent pace of openings.  Maybe Sand Valley's concept of an elite resort with an elite private option will do well. 

[Jeff_Brauer]

This reminds me of the 1974 World Atlas of Golf, where the forward was written by Alister Cooke (?) who said golf would be outlawed, dead, and only practiced by very secret societies.  This was an (over) reaction to the US reducing tax writeoffs for country clubs the year before.  When I went in to interview at Killian and Nugent a few years later, I commented on this, and Dick Nugent said....."Golf has been going strong for 500 years and survived worse than a reduced tax write off......it will continue."


Charlie is right in my experience that in any hobby or pastime, most in it feel the kids aren't doing it, it is on the slow death spiral, etc.  Yes, some pastimes will dwindle and new ones will replace them to a degree.  I don't think golf will look significantly different in 30 years, but the changes will come around the edges, i.e., less green, perhaps take out back tees at most courses no one ever uses, less formality, continued improvements in convenience (carts, shorter courses, etc.)  People are logical and golf is a tough biz, so it will shake itself out in a way that allows golf to thrive.

[Peter Bowman]

edit: premature posting

[Peter Bowman]

Great topic, Thomas. My lunch break won’t allow me to fully comment but I can’t wait to

[Pat Burke]

Water uses will strongly impact especially in the west. Overseed wall to wall will be a thing of the past.


Golf will revert back to pre pandemic or lower interest levels due to the costs that a continue to rise , ironically taking advantage of those that have discovered (or rediscovered) the game.


Professional golf will see a reckoning. The amount of money suddenly being thrown around is like the tech “bubble” and will bring huge issues

[Ben Hollerbach]

• With virtually every classic era course having been restore, renovate, and restored again; the industries interest will move on to post-war courses
• Clubs build in the 50's and 60's, now approaching their 75th anniversary, will embrace their historical significant as a part of Americana and begin to restore their courses back to their mid-century roots.
• A high profile post-war course, who recently completed a major modern redesign, goes back under the knife for a mid-century restoration, ushering a new wave of post-war appreciation
• Currently under represented architects in the field will begin to differentiate themselves in the industry by becoming RTJ, or Wilson specialist and focus on restoring once highly acclaimed post-war golf course.

[Tommy Williamsen]

Ι just hope I am still playing.

[Ira Fishman]

Things change both faster and more slowly than we think.


**The US Open rota already announced through mid century leads to a roll back in driver and ball technology.


**Agronomists develop a grass that requires far less water.


**TOC is still the answer to every question.

[Peter Bowman]

How do those posting herein envisage golf being in 10 years time?
Big World so need to consider - High end/echelon courses. Member courses. Rural and rustic courses. Daily Fee courses. Municipal courses. The golf business.
OK Here's what my Crystal Ball tells me

As now?  In 10 years?  Yes, mostly "as now" but we will be just a couple years in the infancy of a transition to more affordable golf that is played by more people not currently playing traditional golf.  And that will be a good thing.Increase or decline in playing popularity?  Traditional golf will remain the same particularly with Boomers and Gen X crowd and the older Millennials.  The low-hanging fruit of growth in the game will be more from women, kids, minorities, and people in general with no time for 4 hours but want to play golf.  As a result, traditional golf courses will remain strong but also remain flat-ish.More shorter length or less than 18-holes courses? Without question, short length and sub-18 holes will become more common as land expense goes up, time to golf goes down, and disposable income goes down as well.  I suspect a recession will be here within 2 years and remain until 2029-2031 or so. Many traditional courses will have to cut costs to keep their course affordable to the golfer. 
The sustained recession will give rise to innovations in the golf business model.  Like medicine, pharmacy, and dentistry, and even in the skiing industry, consolidation will begin to occur.  Clubs will begin having more cross/dual membership agreements to maintain cash flow, just like ski passes these days.
In addition, new corporate models of golf will arise.  A select few companies will establish a niche of familiar and repeatable golf experience, much like Top Golf, but more like traditional golf. This will begin in about 10 years, I bet, as a solution to creating affordable golf in a recession environment. 
Said courses will be designed with less focus less around the traditional schools of design (Penal, Strategic, and heroic) and prioritized on creating a fun and memorable experience for those who are new to the game.  Courses will be shorter, emphasis on total par will be less important, and there may be any variety of # of holes to play at a course.  More 6 to 12-hole courses with 9 being the most common, particularly in urban areas with small acreage--but also in the boonies where golf isn't yet popular.
Perhaps they will have a token Par 5.  They will appeal to people with busy schedules and newcomers to the game who are still intimidated about playing a traditional golf course.  Lengths will be shorter and forgiving but penal to aggressive players.I suspect 3 popular company will emerge most successful in collecting a series of different courses that are all catered to the casual player looking for a good time rather than a traditional 4-5 hour golfing experience.  They will own courses regionally, be centrally managed, and ultimately become nationally known chains.  They'll have better systems in place for profitability than that average course, giving them a competitive advantage (and that may also become their ultimate demise).Contours will have exaggerations.  A ball in motion makes a happy golfer.  Perhaps it'll have elements of intentional ridiculousness like putt-putt courses but also be fair (such as a hole positioned at the deepest part of a basin in the green).  Two good examples of this I've seen are Knights Play Golf Center in Raleigh area and The Short Course in Scottsdale.  My 14 year-old daughter, new to golf last year-- loves Hooper but she LOVES The Short Course and can't wait to get back to a course like it.  She's a great example of what a sector of golf design needs to cater to. 
Less green and lush? Certainly yes out west.  "Brown is the new green" will be en vogue and mostly out of necessity for water shortage and also courses that need to reduce water expense.Will the ball (and/or equipment) have been rolled-back? Nope.  Golfers wont like that and the market will prove it.  I might actually suggest "illegal" equipment not approved by the USGA for play on these courses where people dont give 2 shits about "handicap" and want to have a fun time.More driver-less machine maintenance?  It'll be a necessity, fortunately or not.  This may not necessarily reduce the amount of golf course maintenance workers over all but it will shift the dynamic of work.  It'll eventually becomes more reliable and consistent and repeatable than a human doing the mowing, but a human will still have to supervise and move these autonomous machines.  I expect they'll be used by these corporate companies creating courses like I mentioned above.More use of artificial surfaces? Only on tee boxes in dry climates maybeUrban (and/or softball) golf? Yup.  See above.  soft ball courses could work in places where old home sites and empty mall sites could build courses for soft golf ball use.  Combines with frisbees or other variations of golf.Environment factors? I'm sure Zoning and Planning Boards will impose more limitations on water consumption and chemical useClubhouse factors? Sweetens Cove figured it out.  A cool unpretentious Pro Shack with a guy at the desk making tee times and starting people ff and selling merchandise out the wazoo.  Gathering places and food will be outdoors under a large pavilion with fire pits to socialize around.  Maybe inexpensive outdoor bars and grills.  Corn hole, ping pong, shuffleboard and simulator golf may all become part of the "19th hole" post-round experience. 
Millennials and Gen Z seem to prefer experiences to the high status mentality of a fancy clubhouse.
Gender/age factors? As mentioned earlier.  Golf should appeal to women and be designed around their abilities and interest better than what traditional golf as doneGoverning bodies? It'll become more market driven.  Governing bodies will remain as-is in traditional golfWhat does your crystal ball say? While every golf course designer/architect wants to have a top rated course and even multiples, I think an underappreciated aspect in golf is the architect who can successfully design golf courses that greatly increases the number of golfers enjoying the game.  As a result of what I described above, most traditional courses will benefit by gaining golfers who started out on these alternative/modified courses. 
These are what my crystal ball tells me golf needs to produce to grow the game
Atb

[Peter Bowman]

Things change both faster and more slowly than we think.


**The US Open rota already announced through mid century leads to a roll back in driver and ball technology.


**Agronomists develop a grass that requires far less water.


**TOC is still the answer to every question.

forgive my ignorance, whats "TOC" mean?

[Stewart Abramson]

**TOC is still the answer to every question.

forgive my ignorance, whats "TOC" mean?

The Old Course

[Ian Andrew]

From Adam's excellent article - hope you don't mind

Read it here: https://www.golfcoursearchitecture.net/content/what-does-the-future-of-golf-course-architecture-hold

This is from Ty Butler:

"Ty Butler has an even more apocalyptic view. “Maybe architects will be obsolete by 2030,” he says. “There might be artificial intelligence based programs that will design courses. An owner simply has to download a map of their property and the AI will do the rest. From developing conceptual routing plans to producing 3D renderings of each hole or better yet developing a complete virtual reality experience where you can play the course before it is even built and then customize the design based on your pre-build experience. Finally, a complete set of working drawings is produced. And possibly all of this happens in a matter of days!”

If any of you have been following the recent breakthroughs in AI images from text. It's just astounding what you can do now. You can seed ideas and ask the program to write or illustrate in the style of someone famous. This WILL impact writing and art - and I think design too. His thoughts may be astoundingly accurate.

I would suggest this podcast to understand the concept:
https://www.theringer.com/2022/5/10/23064766/the-future-of-ai-is-thrilling-terrifying-confusing-and-fascinating

Then if your up to it, head to:
https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/

[Tommy Williamsen]

In the last ten years, there has been growth in the number and quality of new resorts. Of course, we always have had resorts, but now the quality of the golf is as good or better than many private clubs. What will clubs that rely on national memberships look like? The national club I just resigned from went to $8000 a year and will likely go to $10,000 next year. That pays for a lot of green fees at Bandon or Cabot, or Sand Valley.

[Tom_Doak]

Like many here, I grew up at the dawn of the Space Age, so you'd think everyone would have learned their lesson about predicting the future.  I sure thought we'd be a long way from where we are, but in my innocence and youth, I neglected to think that the future seems driven by where Commerce wants it to go, not by Idealism.


I can tell what the next 3-4 years will be like, because I'm pretty much booked up for that time frame.  Most of the new stuff will be built in year-round golf climates and "no tax states" [Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc.].  After that, I'll just stick with the above.  Anyone who thinks they know better is just projecting.

[Steve Lang]

   In 10 years, when Its 5 am, what's left of the maintenance crew will be stirring, out and about, tending to business and the day's chores...

[Ira Fishman]

  In 10 years, when Its 5 am, what's left of the maintenance crew will be stirring, out and about, tending to business and the day's chores...

True dat. And none of the crew should know nor care who the OTM, Braid, Colt, Dr Mac, ODGs, the Jones, Wilson, Lee, Dye, C&C, Doak, King and Collins, or Hanse are. The first tee time is 7:00 or 7:30. There is the hole. Golf is an ancient and simple game.

[Jim Sherma]

Golf is an ancient game and will survive anything that we can do to screw it up. The modern business of golf is not ancient and will inevitably face stresses that will drive change over the next 10-20 years. Issues that I see driving this change:

• The obvious one in certain areas being water usage and cost - likely mitigated through new grass strains that can better manage environmental stress at lower input levels
• Labor costs driven by political pressure/necessity for less immigration and the desire to increase the real wages of lower wage workers  - clearly courses can be maintained with less labor intensive practices than they are now, I could see the more recent maintenance trends of frilly edged bunkers and other practices that require hands-on maintenance being rolled back to something that looks more like mid-20th century shaping and maintenance practices - a lot of what RTJ built as well as primary driver of the post-war aesthetic was driven by the desire to focus on ongoing maintenance costs
• Increasing land valuation that results in golf courses simply becoming too valuable in their next best use - there is a long history of clubs and golfers moving form established golfing grounds to land that is less valuable in other uses - Well-heeled clubs will survive where they are - Public options could suffer, municipal courses addressed some of this post-WW2 - not sure if the US has any chance at having the political will to make incremental public investment for recreation in general, let alone for golf specifically
• A retrenching of customer spending patterns - as we all know here, golf towards the upper tier is becoming more and more expensive - at some point a $20-30,000+/year spend rate will be questioned even by well-off acolytes (primary private club, 2nd/national club membership, 1-3 trips to golfing destinations, either overseas or Kohler/Kaiser quality - it's easy to see this type of spend rate - I'm down to one club and 1 big trip every other year and some small getaway trips and $10k+ is easily hit) - at some point these spending patterns will change in the aggregate and those providers with a mortgage will suffer while those that have been paid off and can adjust their finances appropriates will survive
• Distance - I could see a high probability to attempt to halt distance gains where they are and a smaller probability of some type of roll back for elite players if not everyone - We are all familiar with the arguments for a roll back of some type as well as the momentum preventing any from happening - maybe they can stop distance gains where they are, although there is no real track record of success as far as that goes 

[Adrian_Stiff]

How do those posting herein envisage golf being in 10 years time?
Big World so need to consider - High end/echelon courses. Member courses. Rural and rustic courses. Daily Fee courses. Municipal courses. The golf business.

As now?
Increase or decline in playing popularity?
More shorter length or less than 18-holes courses?
Less green and lush?
Will the ball (and/or equipment) have been rolled-back?
More driver-less machine maintenance?
More use of artificial surfaces?
Urban (and/or softball) golf?
Environment factors?
Clubhouse factors?
Gender/age factors?
Governing bodies?
What does your crystal ball say?
Atb

My Crystal ball says....I think much will depend on how quickly the world adapts to climate change and the way our lives change with it.
Long distance travel will dramatically slow unless a new way to travel without emissions and high costs, will that be by 2033-2043-2053?? Water will be another problem, chemical use another. People will play golf at well over 100 and doctors will advise it as a way to stay supple (they have already mastered decaying parts with growing new ones and repairing by using your own DNA). 2026 The first telivised hole in one is made on a par 5. 2027 7 foot 4 Canadian tour member reaches the 8th at Augusta with a drive and a wedge. 2028 The US masters is played with 'The Masters Ball' it travels 90% of a traditional ball and is 1.72 in in diameter. 2029 Adrian Stiff sues England Golf and wins for being stupid. England golf are forced to change the handicap system and you no longer have to play within 10 yards of a measured post for the round to count for handicapping purposes. The judge orders the England Golf Team to pay damages to everyone that played off the wrong handicap. 2031 The Masters Ball is introduced by the PGA Tour (the ball is renamed the  Al Kaferking after the Saudi born president of the PGA tour. The ball is available in six sizes 90-88-86-84-82-80. 2033 The New ball is used at various golf courses to reinstate the design intent. 72 year old Tom Doak comments this is an important step in restoring many of the golf courses designed we never ever expected 200 yard par 3 holes to be a just a wedge, with the new ball it will be an 8 iron.  2034 Royal West Norfolk closes because it is now part of the North Sea. 2036 St Andrews are forced to close the 1st and 18th holes after somebody was killed by a golf ball whilst drinking in the outdoors bar at Russacks. Four new holes are built using landfill out in the Eden played which form part of the New course and the new layout uses several holes from the New allow TOC two loops of nine The new course starts from the 2nd and is designed to Ebert 2035- 11 year Kazakstani girl Bin-Herelotz wins for the first time on the LPGA tour (later it is discovered she is 12) 2037 Terri Lee Woo Kim Bin (female) finishes joint 5th in the Open Championship 2039- Water is so short most US courses cant afford the water and the US open is played on a synthetic surface for the first time. 2040 -The Open Championship is staged at Saunton for the first time but the course is so dry the players have to use fairway mats. originally the championship was set for a return to Deal after 120 years but flooding in the Spring prevented the course from opening. 2046 -Tom Watson sets a new record for beating his age by the most strokes, at 97 he shot a 76 which included 4 birdies and 2 three putts (he missed a six footer on the last for an eagle)! 2048 -The R & A launch a new championship for non binary adults. 2049 BUDA cup is shown on DAZN for the first time, many refuse to pay the $599 PPV charge. 2050 - Jon Rahm claims his first Open Championship and 13th major at 55. There are four pensioners in the top 10. It is the first time for 125 years the championship has returned to Prestwick, thanks to the new 6SenzGEN TV platform you can be there from the comfort of your own home. 2051- An amateur breaks 50 for the first time on a course over 6000 yards.

[Kalen Braley]

I think the answer may lie in what has happened over the last 10 years and forecast that for the next 10.  And based on what's already been mentioned, seems to highly correlate with the health of the economy and the ensuing ripple effects

That being said, I certainly enjoy reading Adrian's prognostications the most. Keep em' coming!