Global warming and it's impacts on links courses.

[astavrides]

Turboe,

Here is the paper that is the source of your termite stat:
 
The influence of termites on atmospheric trace gases: CH4, C02, CHCl3, N2O, CO, H2, and light hydrocarbons. M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen. J.R. French, and J. Holt; J. Geophys. Res., 95:3619. 1990.

I have not read the paper or read anyone's direct criticism of it.  It does not seem that is currently thought to be a valid stat, however.

This NASA site places termite methane production at 4% of global production:
http://icp.giss.nasa.gov/research/methane/gmc.html

This DOE site says that animal respiration is responsible for less than 20% of carbon dioxide emissions:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg00rpt/emission.htm#gghg

Using data from the same source...
- Its true that burning fossil fuels are only about 5% of CO2 emissions, but CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing, and we can control fossil fuels use more easily than many natural sources.

- Methane is a much more 'potent' greenhouse gas than CO2 and most methane production is from human sources.

If you don't believe me, check it out for yourself.

I don't want to 'shut down business' or 'take away your SUV'.  I do want them to be more efficient and cleaner. I would encourage you to trade yours in for a hybrid SUV when they appear on the market next year
http://autos.msn.com/advice/article.aspx?contentid=4020586&src=MSN.  
Ideally, however, I would like everyone to become vegetarian, but not force them to.  There are plenty of other reasons for that as well, but i digress...

[Jonathan Davison]

Derek
how many casino's in Edinburgh worry about global warming and its effect on the links? Never mind keep up the good work and the part timers will see you in January. WAS THIS A QUESTION FOR A NEW ASSIGNMENT?

[Doug Siebert]

If you look at the numbers from the time that records have been kept, you'll see a noticeable upswing.  The reason--we're still coming out of the last ice age.  The relative small impact that humans can produce, one way or another, won't change the normal oscillations of the world's weather patterns over the long term...

True, temperatures have been going up since we began keeping accurate records a couple hundred years ago, but this is NOT an unbroken trend since the last ice age ended 5-10 thousand years ago.  From about 1400-1700 we had a "little ice age" where temperatures were several degrees C lower than they are now (we know from records in major population centers like London, along with tree growth rings, ice cores, etc.)  Before that, from around 800-1300, it was warmer in Europe than it is today -- there were vineyards operating in England and Scotland.

The fact it is getting warmer now isn't open to debate from any rational person who looks at the figures, whether it is due to natural cycles, humans, the increasing solar activity or Roswell aliens trying to slowly cook us in retribution for shooting down their saucer is the argument these days.  Even the right wing doesn't dispute the temperature rise any longer, just its source and possible duration.

A bigger problem, at least for courses in the UK, will be if the melting icecaps cause ocean currents to change.  Some scientists believe that the "gulf express" current that brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico region up to the western shore of Europe and the UK may diminish or disappear.  If that happens they'd have weather like what North American does at a similar latitude.  St. Andrews might not tolerate a couple feet of snow for months at a time.  Plus it'd really make driving over there a bitch, due to the English love of putting traffic controls on the road itself where Americans tend more toward putting them on signs.

Personally, I have to believe that given the time scales things like ocean currents operate on, and the effect even a 1% increase in solar output can have, that humans probably aren't reponsible for much if any of the increase.  Though I still argue with Bush's oil cronies' hard on to drill for oil in unspoilt land in Alaska.  And I'd suggest that even those GCA readers most ardendly supporting Bush's position on that and everything else political would change their mind about it if oil was found in the shallows of Monteray Bay!  

[Mike Vegis @ Kiawah]

...derek
of all the links courses i am familar with ,a two ft rise in the oceans level would have no or little effect....maybe pebbles 17 and 18 ,but to raise them two ft to compensate would not be prohibitive.....the principles of soil erosion would be the same ,regardless of global warming...haven't played the ocean course at kiawah,but a seawall might suffice.
most coastal courses built in the us are at a minimum elevation of 6 to 7 ft above sea level..............i would be more worried about venice.

Two feet wouldn't be much of a problem for us.  We have a substantial dune line between the Atlantic and the course.  Plus, with our geographic positioning (the island's beach faces south -- I saw the sun set over the Atlantic last night playing late and I saw it rise this morning over the Atlantic working on a photo shoot for ads for our new hotel!), the island, which is over 10 miles long, keeps growing.  We don't have a beach erosion problem...

[Daryl "Turboe" Boe]

Turboe,

Here is the paper that is the source of your termite stat:
 
The influence of termites on atmospheric trace gases: CH4, C02, CHCl3, N2O, CO, H2, and light hydrocarbons. M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen. J.R. French, and J. Holt; J. Geophys. Res., 95:3619. 1990.

No actually my information comes from former Secretary of State in the US Bureau of Oceans, former Chariman of the Atomic Energy Comission, former Governor of the state of Washington, and United Nations Peace Prize winner Dr. Dixiy Ray.

Yeah I will be sure to get in line behind the multitudes of people who are clamoring breathlessly for a Hybrid SUV!!!

[astavrides]

turboe,

i think dixy ray, and the many who ditto the stat, got it from the paper i cited.

I hope you are right and that there will be a clamor for hybrid SUV's.  the hybrid vehicles on the market now seem to be doing quite well.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/auto/20030507a1.asp

[Derek Deschler]

Hello all,

      Thank you very much for your thoughts and helpful information.  I had already written the response paper when I posted the question on the site: (what combatitive measures could golf courses take against the negative effects of global warming?).  So I hope you don't feel like I was using you for my own personal academic gain.  I wanted to know if anyone out there had any interesting insight into this matter to weigh against my own thoughts on the matter.  

      The paper was approximately 3000 words and was supposed to only briefly touch on the explanation and scientific support of the idea of global warming.  The body of the paper was to be creative and inventive, pertaining to any wide and far-reaching personal thoughts on how this hypothetical or possibly tangible situation could be remedied.  

       At age 23 I've played only about 20 different links courses now, in the States and in Scotland, and have realised that most links courses would probably not be harmed because of large dune or beach buffers and their height above the sea (Kiawah).  However, I have also noticed that courses like Dunbar in Scotland or Galveston Municipal in Texas are only slightly above sea level.  In many places on these courses, the sea rises up over the land, especially during storms, because there is nothing to stop it.  Dunbar's Castle course is in danger of losing it's 5th green because of this and the routing will have to be completely rearranged once it is destroyed (which will be very soon regardless of rising water levels).

       Courses like the two previously mentioned will undoubtedly be underwater in many places if the predicted water rising actually occurs.  My thoughts on the mitigation and eventual subjugation of the damages caused by these predictions were highly philosophical, artistic and only somewhat practical.  I reached as far back into my demiurgic mind for the process of creating these ideas and I cannot tell if what I've written will stand solidly as proper academic writing.  But I actually don't care anyway.

       James and Jon, the program is going well, only straight A's until now and hopefully that won't change.  I wish I could stay in school forever.  You can actually use your creative talents here and be rewarded for them as opposed to many GCA firms that only want a generic finished product devoid of any art.  I'd rather be unemployed and dirt poor for the next ten years working for myself than under the dark shroud of a big name company.  Never again, I've got too much going to waste it somewhere I will never be seen.

       On a lighter note, Kiawah is calling my name, and the 27-30th, I'll be researching the Ocean Courses possible susceptibilities to rising ocean levels.  Ha, ha,

Derek