Maybe this is the type of Data that Eric has access to? 8 million shots. Who says the sand isn't a hazard?
Everyone has access to that data. That's just from Every Shot Counts.
https://thesandtrap.com/gallery/image/41-strokes-gained-table-5-2/
Yes....just pulling your goalie.
What is the data that you have but can't disclose? There was something you mentioned. Totally respect any proprietary data but I would assume it is just a formula of Shot link data?
Also what are your thoughts on any of the data especially the fairway rough sand recovery one. One could extrapolate score off tee of bomb it 320 and don't care where it goes or lay back to hit it 280 in the fairway.
This stuff Scott has made publicly available. His driver decision tree is basically:
- is it 65 yards between penalty hazards (OB, penalty areas or probable lost ball level gunch)
- if yes, is it 40 yards between trouble
- if yes, driver
- if it’s not 40 yards does three wood stop short of the trouble
- if yes it’s 3 wood
- if no it’s probably driver
- don’t drop to hybrid unless it’ll leave you no more than wedge
- if it isn’t 65 yards between penalty areas then do whatever you have to do. Even if that means hitting like 7 iron.
Personally I think this is a little simplistic. If you plot a graph of the shots to hole out it slopes downwards virtually everywhere. But that downward slope is steeper between 300 and 200 than it is between 200 and 100. Consequently on a long 4 or 5 I think you can hit driver a little more. If 3 wood takes out the possibility of reaching the green in two and it’s 37 yards between bunkers/trees etc then I would say that’s driver even though the decision tree says 3 wood (if 3 wood stops short of the bunkers).
It’s exactly the same concept though. Plot the likelihood of finishing in each spot and the shots to finish from there and then pick your target and club accordingly.
One of the things Scott bangs on about a lot is if you hit a long iron you won’t always hit the fairway and if you hit driver you won’t always miss it. What you will always be if you hit an iron is 50+ yards further away.