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Ira Fishman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #25 on: October 20, 2021, 09:25:22 PM »
Done next year.


I think there naturally will be some attrition.
Not everybody who tries it sticks with it, or can stick with it.
But I do think with so many people being exposed, with so much time and disposeable income(not spent on vacations/travel) that a certain percentage will stay with it.
I'd say in a year or two we end up with with 4-5 years worth of the natural organic growth we used to get before the powers that be got so obsessed with "growing the game".
But that will be down from the 10 years growth we got so suddenly last year with a captive audience. Many will stick it out-team golf will be a big winner, clawing a few kids away from for profit travel teams in other sports.
But many will go back to their previous lives.
Many of us in the industry will welcome a little return to normalcy, and many will be appreciative of the boom that lifted most boats, enabling many to live to fight anothe day.


As a layman, this resonates as accurate. I do think that there are two demographic/societal factors related to Covid that might keep the boost going to some extent. First, the number of people of my generation (relatively early Boomers) who are retiring as they hit their early to mid 60s is growing, and that represents a big cohort. Second, working remotely will decrease from Covid highs but still will be more prevalent than it had been--doing a Zoom call from the 4th tee is a challenge but sneaking out for a round while connected by email is quite doable.


Ira

Mike_Trenham

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #26 on: October 20, 2021, 11:01:20 PM »
Ancient Chinese Proverb - When you lower the river you see the rocks - right now we are in the midst and of a 100 year storm.
Proud member of a Doak 3.

Jeff Schley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2021, 04:04:45 AM »
Ancient Chinese Proverb - When you lower the river you see the rocks - right now we are in the midst and of a 100 year storm.
Good one Mike. As long as the governments keep printing money and have 0% interest rates, we will see this continue. This is of course supposed to be short term stimulus action, that when drawn out creates the inflation we are currently seeing. Sort of like a flat time, you can ride on it for a while, but you need to pull over and change the tire before you are really in trouble.
"To give anything less than your best, is to sacrifice your gifts."
- Steve Prefontaine

Gib_Papazian

Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2021, 03:09:05 PM »

How long? The inevitable bust has already started.

What began as perhaps a well-intended stimulus policy has morphed into an unsustainable orgy of profligate lunacy - under the hallucination you can fiat-print dead presidents out of the hole we have dug to China.


Rule #1. If you are already in a hole, stop digging.


Unless you've gone big on petroleum stocks (praying Iran does not manage to block the Strait of Hormuz), you'd better be on a northbound escalator to help defray the catastrophic inflation facing us.


Rich people and tony club stalwarts already have their team of horses lined up to outrace our insane fiscal policy, but wage-earning, tax-paying working people do not have that luxury.


Gas prices are not only crippling the middle class at the pump (struggling to buy a home often means long commutes to the salt mine), but freight and diesel rates to and from supply points have nearly doubled.


Now, unless everybody is planning on "eating cake" until the shitstorm passes in 10 years or so, Hamburger Helper is going to become a staple item for a huge chunk of Americans.


How many Pro V1's they gonna buy with an inflated PG&E bill sitting on the kitchen desk?


What does that really mean? The household budget for trivialities like golf will be the first to go . . . . but particularly higher end public courses - although your local muni will also have to raise fees, which means higher taxes . . . . . . which means less discretionary money.


How many overpriced PXG bats is your gardener going to buy this year? I just received a property tax bill that took my breath away - but what about those who simply cannot generate enough money to keep up with explosive inflation?


We gonna "tax the rich?" Who are the "the rich" exactly? We've already skewed the system beyond recognition - and in places like California, those U-Hauls cost 5x more going out than coming back.


Now, let's add in the water crisis out here - since the imbeciles who run California have not built any dams in decades - and we are fixin' to dismantle our last fully functional nuke power plant south of Lompoc.


People at the very bottom may still be provided a bare soylent green subsistence - since the handouts will continue as a means to buy votes - and older people in the top 25% usually have just enough wiggle room to ride the wave and stay afloat until they turn 59 1/2 years old. But everybody between the bread slices of this shit sandwich will eventually be forced to turn in their Callaway sticks for backyard Pickleball paddles . . . . . . dead grass from lack of water makes a nice surface I'm told.


I've been forced by circumstance to run 2.5 companies right now, so I've got a front row seat to this slow-motion train wreck. I think we have passed the tipping point of a recovery any time soon . . . . and the middle section of the bell curve is going to look like Bambi meets Godzilla. 




 






 


 


 
« Last Edit: October 31, 2021, 03:03:18 PM by Gib Papazian »

Buck Wolter

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2021, 06:44:44 PM »
There's a case to be made that we are on the verge of a major demographic growth spurt. The oldest Millennials just started turning 40 and the youngest 21. This presentation focuses on the stock market and the parallels versus when the boomers hit those ages and the good things that happened for the next 10-15 years -- I assume if the stock market is good, the golf industry will be as well.
[size=78%] [/size]


Plenty of reasons to be pessimistic but worth considering what could go right.
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes?offset=1633730145135



Those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience -- CS Lewis

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #30 on: November 10, 2021, 09:18:17 AM »
Will guitar sales outlast the Covid boom? ;)

https://www.musictrades.com/editorial20-08.html

cary lichtenstein

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #31 on: November 11, 2021, 04:04:19 PM »

How long? The inevitable bust has already started.

What began as perhaps a well-intended stimulus policy has morphed into an unsustainable orgy of profligate lunacy - under the hallucination you can fiat-print dead presidents out of the hole we have dug to China.


Rule #1. If you are already in a hole, stop digging.


Unless you've gone big on petroleum stocks (praying Iran does not manage to block the Strait of Hormuz), you'd better be on a northbound escalator to help defray the catastrophic inflation facing us.


Rich people and tony club stalwarts already have their team of horses lined up to outrace our insane fiscal policy, but wage-earning, tax-paying working people do not have that luxury.


Gas prices are not only crippling the middle class at the pump (struggling to buy a home often means long commutes to the salt mine), but freight and diesel rates to and from supply points have nearly doubled.


Now, unless everybody is planning on "eating cake" until the shitstorm passes in 10 years or so, Hamburger Helper is going to become a staple item for a huge chunk of Americans.


How many Pro V1's they gonna buy with an inflated PG&E bill sitting on the kitchen desk?


What does that really mean? The household budget for trivialities like golf will be the first to go . . . . but particularly higher end public courses - although your local muni will also have to raise fees, which means higher taxes . . . . . . which means less discretionary money.


How many overpriced PXG bats is your gardener going to buy this year? I just received a property tax bill that took my breath away - but what about those who simply cannot generate enough money to keep up with explosive inflation?


We gonna "tax the rich?" Who are the "the rich" exactly? We've already skewed the system beyond recognition - and in places like California, those U-Hauls cost 5x more going out than coming back.


Now, let's add in the water crisis out here - since the imbeciles who run California have not built any dams in decades - and we are fixin' to dismantle our last fully functional nuke power plant south of Lompoc.


People at the very bottom may still be provided a bare soylent green subsistence - since the handouts will continue as a means to buy votes - and older people in the top 25% usually have just enough wiggle room to ride the wave and stay afloat until they turn 59 1/2 years old. But everybody between the bread slices of this shit sandwich will eventually be forced to turn in their Callaway sticks for backyard Pickleball paddles . . . . . . dead grass from lack of water makes a nice surface I'm told.


I've been forced by circumstance to run 2.5 companies right now, so I've got a front row seat to this slow-motion train wreck. I think we have passed the tipping point of a recovery any time soon . . . . and the middle section of the bell curve is going to look like Bambi meets Godzilla. 




 






 


 


 
Brilliant commentary, right on and it is getting worse every month
Live Jupiter, Fl, was  4 handicap, played top 100 US, top 75 World. Great memories, no longer play, 4 back surgeries. I don't miss a lot of things about golf, life is simpler with out it. I miss my 60 degree wedge shots, don't miss nasty weather, icing, back spasms. Last course I played was Augusta

V_Halyard

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #32 on: November 12, 2021, 12:37:25 PM »
Jerry, we are working on a couple of projects and attempting to build a forecast. In one instance we are trying to be conservative and have settled on a guess that with hard work and outreach ,the project might retain 15% of the new growth.  The current numbers are still running well ahead of that figure but that would be bonus.
"It's a tiny little ball that doesn't even move... how hard could it be?"  I will walk and carry 'til I can't... or look (really) stupid.

MCirba

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #33 on: November 12, 2021, 01:06:12 PM »
Sadly, but perhaps predictably, this has devolved again into politics.

I know we must have a Democratic President again because the predictions of "sky is falling" from my conservative friends is getting more shrill by the day.

The irony is that during my lifetime, the only economic collapses we've had have been under Republican "trickle down" voodoo economics implementations that short-circuited the normal revenue streams and led to huge deficits and major recessions, after which inevitably a Democratic President had to come to the rescue, as is happening again.

Breathe people...if we can't learn from our collective past then just ride it out and perhaps we can get the fascist dictatorship taking over our democracy that some seem to crave in 2024.   Back to golf course architecture, please.
"Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent" - Calvin Coolidge

https://cobbscreek.org/

Gib_Papazian

Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #34 on: November 12, 2021, 02:20:59 PM »
Mike,


This has nothing to do with Biden whatsoever - and I do not believe there is going to be a sudden, catastrophic economic collapse like the cyclical sub-prime 2008 train wreck.


To try to stave this off, they will be forced to just keep printing money, obviously. So "the collapse" may likely be torturously slow, manifesting as an inexorable degradation of consumer buying power.


This is really about how discretionary activities - like golf - can survive . . . . . and the solution of raising green fees and equipment prices to defray the new economic realty - commiserate with inflation - is only a short term fix.


The reason is that inflation will soon outrace wages - and those on fixed incomes (wait until they start to raid everybody's 401K and IRAs, since they can change the rules anytime they want) will slowly get strangled out of their discretionary activities by necessity.


Those 3% yearly ups in many real estate lease contracts and retirement/wages contracts will not bridge the gap - so prices will have to continue to raise if private companies wish to remain solvent.


Don't laugh - I'm up to my eyeballs, consulting for a higher-end car company - but shortages of inventory have drastically raised prices on used cars. In these circumstances, even with essentially "free money" with respect to interest rates, new car prices are moving up nearly as fast.


A box of golf balls is already idiotically high - and green fees will HAVE to go up, because the day of de minimis wage Carl Spackler is long gone. Let me see you go find a reliable employee - in any field. Trust me, the next generation does not think like we do - there are times when my young adult kids sound like space aliens to me.


They have their own language . . . . I often need an interpreter. Everything in their lives is now ephemeral - and moves at the speed of light.


BTW, Ran across a picture of us at Pasatiempo from years ago. My "redhead girlfriend" you refer to has been wifey for 15+ years - I've nearly got clearance to swing a club again, so come west for a 2nd take.


   


     


   






 


   

Jeff Schley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #35 on: November 12, 2021, 03:19:09 PM »
Gib the Fed has already signaled pretty strongly their policy in 2022 is to by mid year, stop the quantitative easing program altogether. Then probably judge how it is unwinding and raise the federal fund rate 1-2 x's by YE 2022.
So the end is in sight pending any new doom from the pandemic. I'd love to have a crystal ball a year from now, but I would hope that both the measures mentioned would hold back inflation to less than 3% in 2022 I hope is reasonable. FYI if you wonder why your dollar isn't going as far is because inflation is up year over year October the highest it has been in 30 years, 6.2%. Yes that is right that is three times the target of 2 %. This absolutely kills anyone who is a senior is has been saving conservatively with heavy fixed income in their portfolio to hedge market risk.

As inflation is a trailing indicator of action by the Fed, the signaling is seen as a tool to hopefully proactively affect markets. If we don't get inflation under control, which is under the Fed's watch, the dollar will erode it's power to the entire middle to poor class. If you already were scrapping by in early 2020, you have lost another 10% buying power at least (not considering taxes).

I think the Fed has been late myself in signaling (as they almost have to before actions outside of emergencies like the pandemic). However, there is blame with Congress passing out free money for longer than needed (IMO), when you keep generating trillions of deficits on top of 25 trillion already..... uh yeah bad right? Some action was desperately needed and executed, but the gravy train had at least 1 extra stop that wasn't needed. Infrastructure great we get some tangible benefits, but please let's call it a night with the free money giveaways.

We have much bigger problems ahead than most want to acknowledge, as even before the pandemic we hadn't solved the big issues. IMO are largely the deficit which without a balanced budget amendment will NEVER get solved. With at least 70% or more of the debt held by US entities, any haircut (very improbable) is robbing Peter to pay Paul. The deficit is emblematic of many of the imperfections in our fiscal policies. There are no safeguards to overcome the agency problem of short term politicians motives (which is making people happy now to get re elected and juice their donations with happy doners).
Here is the last 30 years how much we have added to the deficit each year.
To put our situation into everyday people perspective let's apply the same ratios of income/deficit and debt to the average US household income for 2020 which I think was approx. $70,000 USD.
  • You earn 70K (fed. gov. approx. 4T in revenue 2021)
  • You spent 112k (fed gov. approx. 6.7T in spending 2021) you spend 59% more than you take in.
  • You already have a debt that is 500k (fed gov. has 28.5T YE est. 2021, effectively 0 interest rate from 2020-21 issued debt) your debt is 7.2 times your earnings for a year.
So to use the federal governments' financials as proxy ratios for the average US household..... you make 70k and spend 42k more than you earn. However you already have 500k in debt you have to pay as well. How can you ever afford to pay off that long term debt?  Good question, right now it is zero interest, what if it gets raised by a 1-2 % rate? See the problem of being hooked on free money with zero interest rates? It can't last forever and forever is rapidly approaching. 


Sorry, sore subject for me and I suspect many of you.
"To give anything less than your best, is to sacrifice your gifts."
- Steve Prefontaine

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #36 on: November 12, 2021, 03:53:17 PM »
I didn't it was possible to out Gib Gib but I believe Jeff has. So many words, so boring, so meaningless.

Jerry Kluger

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #37 on: November 12, 2021, 05:51:03 PM »
Let me see if I understand what could happen.  Most golf courses are not in the upper echelon of fees which they can charge so when inflation occurs and wages and materials are going up the question is if they can pass this on to the golfers as higher greens fees.  I would guess that discretionary expenditures would be the first to be eliminated by consumers and golf would probably be at the top of the list.  So when some are suggesting that greens fees will be going up how many golfers will be prepared to pay those higher fees. I wonder if this would apply to the higher end destination golf courses/resorts?  How many golfers are going to be prepared to spend more than $1,000 a day when prices are everyday staples are increasing significantly? I think that all golf courses would have to become leaner in their operations in order to keep going as I just don't see the public paying more.  It is not like gasoline which is a necessity and people need to get to their jobs, etc. As an aside, I don't see what the reason is for the dramatic increase in gasoline prices other than they can charge whatever they want because of it being a necessity. 

V_Halyard

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #38 on: November 12, 2021, 06:57:52 PM »
This thread jumped the rails like an infrastructural bullet train...
"It's a tiny little ball that doesn't even move... how hard could it be?"  I will walk and carry 'til I can't... or look (really) stupid.

Tim Martin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #39 on: November 12, 2021, 07:36:41 PM »
This thread jumped the rails like an infrastructural bullet train...


So your saying that you don’t love a long winded economic treatise replete with graphs and charts?

V_Halyard

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #40 on: November 12, 2021, 09:26:31 PM »
This thread jumped the rails like an infrastructural bullet train...

So your saying that you don’t love a long winded economic treatise replete with graphs and charts?

In fairness, I think the express got switched onto the local tracks before the financial graphs left the yard.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2021, 10:08:00 PM by V_Halyard »
"It's a tiny little ball that doesn't even move... how hard could it be?"  I will walk and carry 'til I can't... or look (really) stupid.

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #41 on: November 12, 2021, 11:20:29 PM »
Wasn't it the Persuaders who sang the great "It's a Thin Line Between Politics and Economics"?



Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #42 on: November 13, 2021, 10:10:48 AM »
Wasn't it the Persuaders who sang the great "It's a Thin Line Between Politics and Economics"?

Sadly John,

In 2021, its a thin line between politics and everything now.  I was at a family function a few months ago, and a very benign conversation started up around water (or the lack of) in the Western part of the US, and you would not believe the bs rhetoric that started flying around in no time.  Safe to say the subject quickly changed to something else.

MCirba

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #43 on: November 13, 2021, 10:46:15 AM »
Demand in a rapid economic recovery is high.


Supply in a recovering economy is low.


It's that simple folks.  Changing parties in power doesn't change basic economic rules, no matter how much  theories like "trickle down" try to defy simple logic and reason.


We will see some inflation of both wages and prices with coming economic boom, especially now with the passage of the Infrastructure investment.  Keep your 401ks as well, folks, as the stock market has risen over 35% since Election Day 2020.


Golf will continue to grow.
"Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent" - Calvin Coolidge

https://cobbscreek.org/

Lou_Duran

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #44 on: November 13, 2021, 10:54:50 AM »
I was hoping that the tolerant Lefty from Philly (yes, the one with fascist friends) was successful in bending the curve away from politics toward facts which addressed Mr. Kluger's question.  Alas, the thread has been declared off-the-rails/jumped the shark, so let's delve into more important matters, e.g. has the newest wave of American golf course restoration/renovation become too repetitive, homogeneous?, skipping the economics aspects, of course- collective sustainability, fairness, use of scarce resources, etc.






Professor Sowell's comment above should address Jerry's later question about the price of gasoline which is but one of many that is going through the roof- my cable bill just went up 15% overnight; my city property tax is up 8%; I'm too scared to open my auto insurance statement which is setting on my desk given the huge inflation on cars.


We don't have to have more than a rudimentary understanding of human behavior to see what is going on.  You want more of something, incentivize it (e.g. Teslas, wind and solar power, enhanced unemployment benefits, allowances for our kids to do chores, get good grades, etc.).  We want less of something, tax and regulate it (tobacco use, high marginal taxes, grounding the kids for undesired behavior/taking away their car keys; work, profit, the accumulation of wealth and capital investment).


As those who are or have been parents know, providing incentives is usually easier to influence behavior.  Punishing or taxing undesired behavior is typically accompanied by reaction and often unintended consequences (kids sneak out or skip school, France's "rich" simply left the country when the socialist government imposed ultra-high marginal rates on "millionaires", something that the U.S. has made it much harder to do with a type of Iron Curtain to keep income and wealth from escaping taxation).


But staying in the more pleasant realm of music while swerving back on topic:


Dire Straits on today's mindset of our utopian and "third-way" dreamers- "Money for nothin' and the chicks for free"


And the prescient Alvin Lee some 50 years ago expressing the futility of those who want to change the world (my take, by ignoring human nature)- "Tax the rich, feed the poor 'Till there are no rich no more".


Please note:


I did not mention Biden.


And if Tim Martin doesn't like graphs, I am with him.


Jeff S- I was sent a newsletter by a firm which advises and manages money on behalf of well-heeled investors (unlike me) stating in the Fed's own words that its mission has expanded from low-inflation/high employment to also cover facilitating the Treasury in its mission to manage the debt financing of the government by minimizing volatility and ensuring liquidity.  Its conclusion is the opposite of what I think you point to, i.e. that the Fed's independence has ended for the foreseeable future.  Think about it, a 1% increase in interest rates translates to roughly $300 Billion in the government's debt carry, or just under 20% of discretionary spending (2020, before the latest, "non-inflating"/not subject to the laws of supply and demand spending sprees).  In these dangerous times, even under woke policies, do you see a scenario that cuts defense in nearly half to pay bond holders 1% more?








   

John Kirk

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #45 on: November 13, 2021, 11:47:43 AM »
I like this thread.  Lots of great, well reasoned posts.  I especially take interest in the businessman's perspective.  Funny, interesting, earnest... you name it.  I'll add one thing.  It's hard to predict the future.


This thread jumped the rails like an infrastructural bullet train...

I hope this thread remains cordial, so this comment sticks around.  That is the funniest thing I've ever read here.  I laughed until I had tears in my eyes, twice.

Jeff Schley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #46 on: November 13, 2021, 12:31:56 PM »


Jeff S- I was sent a newsletter by a firm which advises and manages money on behalf of well-heeled investors (unlike me) stating in the Fed's own words that its mission has expanded from low-inflation/high employment to also cover facilitating the Treasury in its mission to manage the debt financing of the government by minimizing volatility and ensuring liquidity.  Its conclusion is the opposite of what I think you point to, i.e. that the Fed's independence has ended for the foreseeable future.  Think about it, a 1% increase in interest rates translates to roughly $300 Billion in the government's debt carry, or just under 20% of discretionary spending (2020, before the latest, "non-inflating"/not subject to the laws of supply and demand spending sprees).  In these dangerous times, even under woke policies, do you see a scenario that cuts defense in nearly half to pay bond holders 1% more?

Dear all sorry for the graph and diatribe on our current and depressing balance sheet. My only excuse is that I did vote for this guy in 92' who explained things much better than I admittedly. 30 years later I think we could have been better off had he gotten just 1 term, which is all he said he wanted.


Lou I don't dispute the Fed has been politicized in ways and your money manager is correct to mention debt service considerations. The dialing in of the federal funds rate in combating inflation will always been inexact, but consequences of late action or inaction can be crippling. Let's hope for the best and in that vein continue the boom to golf and other discretionary pursuits.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2021, 12:33:30 PM by Jeff Schley »
"To give anything less than your best, is to sacrifice your gifts."
- Steve Prefontaine

Jerry Kluger

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #47 on: November 13, 2021, 01:52:58 PM »
I lived in Washington, DC for more than 35 years working for the Department of Justice.  Everything has become political and there is little room for logic or any signs of being objective.  All the federal agencies are run by political appointees so no matter what they say about the independence of those agencies you must look at that with a very skeptical eye.  BTW: I am not speaking about just the top dog as there can be dozens of appointees within a particular department, DOJ has more than 100 political appointees.  So now Powell is lobbying to continue in his position as Chairman of the Federal Reserve - you don't think that if he is reappointed he will not owe some allegiance to Biden.  Right now the boom in many areas of the economy will continue but I would not be in the market for a golf course until I see how things shake out.

Rob Marshall

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #48 on: November 27, 2021, 10:28:49 AM »
If life gives you limes, make margaritas.” Jimmy Buffett

Tim Martin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: How long is this boom going to last?
« Reply #49 on: November 27, 2021, 10:55:11 AM »
Here's an interesting twist. Our club was crowded but you could get out.


https://www.golfchannel.com/news/charlotte-country-club-padres-wil-myers-suing-each-other-over-remaining-initiation-fee


I have a friend who joined a private club in 2019 without having to pay an initiation fee. It’s a Golden Age course that historically charged an initiation fee up through 2015 and started to see new memberships tank as other area clubs either dropped or got rid of their’s altogether. Starting in the third quarter of 2020 his club reinstated the initiation fee which was common with the golf boom brought on by COVID-19. He told me that there is resentment from both pre 2015 members as well as brand new members over the deal that he got. I’m sure this scenario is playing out across the land.