How long is this boom going to last?

[Jerry Kluger]

I think we would all agree that no one saw this golf boom coming since it is primary a by-product of the Covid pandemic. Tee sheets are full and new courses are being built but is this going to last or are we going to go back to what was happening before the pandemic?  I think that we certainly have seen a growth in the number of golfers but are they going to stick with the game when they have to go back to the office?  I know that in my area the traffic has picked up dramatically as more and more people are returning to their offices and businesses are reopening. I would love to see the game prosper and I believe that there will be a decline but in the long run there will be a substantial increase in the number of golfers and rounds in the foreseeable future.

[Rob Marshall]

Prices are going thru the roof to join a club and the waiting lists are long. As Jeff said, “great for golf but not for golfers”.

[Jeff Schley]

Prices are going thru the roof to join a club and the waiting lists are long. As Jeff said, “great for golf but not for golfers”.

True Rob and good observation from Jeff that rings true. Supply and demand can be applied to all commodities and services, with golf being in high demand the last couple years. Will it last? Anyone's guess, but I certainly don't think it can. Even with a small drop in participation, we have gained tens of thousands of golfers that can play as they age. Forced some to be exposed to it, which is great for our game.

[Jerry Kluger]

The courses have been spending a lot of money on renovations, restorations, facilities, etc., and usually they do so by borrowing money which will have to be paid back.  The problem arises when they base their ability to repay on the current demand and get in trouble when the demand starts to fall off.  The question again comes down to over saturation which happened in the past and which I hope doesn't happen this time around.

[Tom_Doak]

Jerry:


Unless you are in the business of operating a golf course, why are you trying to predict the future?


I'm objecting because I think it is counterproductive.  There seem to be only two kinds of stories:  "Golf is booming" or, before last year, "Golf is dying".  Both stories are huge over-reactions to the facts on the ground.


98% of golf markets are local, so whether golf courses are oversupplied or undersupplied depends on (a) the actual number of courses in that area, and (b) the local economy.  If you're in The Hamptons, awash with $$$$$, golf courses are overcrowded and can charge whatever they want.  [Some of the stories about The Hamptons this summer rival those about Louis XIV.]  If you're in a small town in Iowa where the main employer is a meat-packing facility, my guess is that golf is not booming so much.


I just signed up a project in SE Florida, and by my client's count, there are 6-8 other new golf courses in planning within ten miles, by nearly every designer you could name.  Just as with the development of office space, that's destined to go from boom to fizzle over the course of the next few years -- some of them will thrive [but not as well as if there were only two new courses being developed], and others will struggle because capacity is being increased by so much.  But there is a lot of money in SE Florida, too, and all of these developers are worth enough that they can afford the risk of failure.


If you're not a billionaire, you should maybe think twice about developing anything down there, though.  If you are borrowing money to do it, I'd like to meet your banker.

[Mike Bodo]

It'll be interesting to see what impact price inflation has on disposable income and one's ability to afford golf. Those in the upper-middle income bracket and above will be affected very little. However, those in the middle to middle-lower income brackets are likely to decrease the number of rounds played. This tends to affect local public courses more than private clubs and varies depending on the market.


That said, the current boom is over. The question now is what will retention of new golfers that have come into the game the past two years be? If the number is somewhere around 50% it's a win for the industry, as the decrease in golfers and number of rounds played from the Tiger boom years to pre-COVID was around 20% by some estimates.


To bring it a little closer to home, the public courses in and around my area that had stacked tee sheets on the weekends during the spring and early summer months have seen a drop-off since late August. I was never able to find early afternoon tee times on Saturday's and Sunday's, but haven't had a problem since Sept. There are morning tee times available at most this weekend, which was unheard of a year ago at this time, which says a lot.

[Jeff_Brauer]

I don't see a problem with speculating and answering the questions.  That said, my guess is that eventually, golf participation will nearly always revert to the mean, i.e. about 9% of the population participates (18% in Wisconsin and MN, etc.)  It went up a bit with Arnie, Tiger, and COVID, and goes down with each recession. 


The key to raising participation seems to be getting more minorities in the game, and of course, women.  If you are a Hispanic kid (to name one group) you are probably less likely to be introduced to golf by a family member than if you are a white kid, just because previous generations haven't been golfers, and that is how most people do get introduced to the game.  As the US gets more diversified, I would expect the natural participation rate to fall a bit, as "non traditional" golf groups make up more of the population, unless something is done.

Another thought, NGF now tracks on course, off course, and both type golfers.  It wouldn't be outlandish to think that the Top Golf and copycat upscale ranges retain their golfers, while on course golfers slip back to normal ranges of participation.  I mean, when you think about it, upscale ranges provide more of the basic thrill of golf, i.e., hitting the golf ball, which you can do every 30 seconds, vs having to walk/ride to the next shot, while eliminating some of the negatives, i.e., time to play, baking in the sun (assuming covered roofs) and only periodic access to refreshments.


And, I have to say, every trip I have taken to Top Golf shows me that every ethnic group is represented, more teens and kids, etc.  We may end up like Japan in the 1990's where due to land shortages, most golfers never got off the range.  For us, it will be because Top Golf resembles the video games the next gen like to play........


As always, just an off the cuff opinion.

[Bill Seitz]

Mike's comment with regard to disposable income makes me wonder how the increasingly remote or semi-remote workforce will play into this.  I technically work in downtown Chicago, but I'm in the office maybe once a week.  That's probably a $300/month savings just in lunches and parking/commuting.  And that's something that's probably not likely to go fully back to the way it used to be even when we're eventually in whatever a post-pandemic society looks like.  That's probably good for the industry.  It's also easier to leave my suburban home office for an afternoon nine than it would be if I were downtown every day.  These might not necessarily be "boom" contributors, but could contribute to the health of the sport.


And this may not be registering many places outside of my bubble, but the various quasi-media entities that have popped up in the last few years have certainly started to drive my interest in the game a bit, or have at least kept me connected while I'm playing less due to having a young family (well, at least the kids are young, mom and dad not so much).  The guys at No Laying Up are doing some really interesting things, and their followers nearly cultish, but in a good way.  There's a lot of interest from what appear to me to be nontraditional younger golfers, and their message board is probably one of the most supportive, sincere, flame free places I've found on the internet.  They produce some really strong video content showcasing not just the top 100 venues, but places where you can play an interesting round on a budget.  I hear that from an industry standpoint, they're being well courted by advertisers who want to tap into that market. 


Same with the Fried Egg to a lesser extent.  I don't think there's a similar Nest/Refuge community, but it looks like Andy runs fun and interesting events, and delivers good content.  Again, I don't know that these things will sustain a boom, but they're probably helping to lay a nice long term foundation.  It just seems to have an aura of inclusiveness, which is what the sport really needs.  But that's all anecdotal of course.  I could be completely wrong.

[Mike Bodo]

Excellent points, Bill, on the impact social media is having on a new generation of golfers. I've been a follower of both NLU and Fried Egg for years, but there's a plethora of outlets like them all over YouTube and Instagram that have helped contribute to making the game seem "cool" and "accessible" for the younger generation.


To go back to Jeff's point regarding getting more minorities and women into the game. Tiger's ascendance was to have been a catalyst for more African American's playing golf and increasing development of municipal golf courses in inner cities. While to some extent it had that effect, its impact was limited and short-term. I'm not sure what the solution is there, as there simply isn't the land available in most urban areas to develop municipal courses that are more likely to be drain on resources than they are to make money. Unless another generational talent like Tiger comes from a different minority background, I don't see more minorities taking up the game.


Now, if you want to take this one step further and apply it to the global golf community; the vast majority of people in India (a country of a 1 billion people, mind you) never knew the game of golf existed until Aditi Ashok was in contention to win the gold medal at the Women's Olympic tournament in Japan this year. Her rise to fame has created a tsunami of interest in the sport, but there aren't close to enough courses in existence to accommodate those wishing to play, not to mention equipment (clubs, balls, shoes, apparel, etc.) is scarce. There's a real opportunity for architects here to get all kinds of work in India right now if they're willing to put the time and effort into travel, as the demand is real and there's financial backing for course development from the government.


As Sei Ri Pak was to the boom of golf in Korea, Aditi Ashok is poised to do the same in India. In short, continued growth of golf is more likely to result from investment in developing countries than it is in our own backyard. China's another candidate. And as we've witnessed elsewhere, all it takes is one highly recognizable and successful player to create a "buzz" and avalanche of interest.

[Jeff_Brauer]

Mike,


I have been told the US female role model might not be a pro golfer, but a successful biz woman willing to let newbies play along.  Fear holds many women back from even trying the game.  No doubt, it projects as a good old boys club to most.

[Wayne_Kozun]

I think the work from home trend could increase the number of rounds played permanently.  My office is in downtown Toronto ~ 35 minutes from my golf club.  My home is about 5 minutes from my golf club.  In the future it is far my likely that I will work from home, not all the time, but a few days each month.  Coincidentally, those days will coincide with days that I play golf in the afternoon.  It is now far more acceptable to work from home - some people will do it occasionally, others permanently.   That will make it easier for people to access golf courses on weekdays.

[Adrian_Stiff]

I like Mike Bodo's comments. The real test will be the economic clouds that may be ahead which suggest that bare bones living costs are set for hike.


On a positive note clouds don't always mean rain. The pandemic has shown that life is for living and sacrifice of enjoyment maybe a non starter for many.


If the nasty storm arrives poorest people will have little available money, though golf demographs are probably not high in these sectors but, there will be resistance in the under 40s that have first responsibilities to their children and it is a lot of them that are the new recruits.

[Tom_Doak]

Now, if you want to take this one step further and apply it to the global golf community; the vast majority of people in India (a country of a 1 billion people, mind you) never knew the game of golf existed until Aditi Ashok was in contention to win the gold medal at the Women's Olympic tournament in Japan this year. Her rise to fame has created a tsunami of interest in the sport, but there aren't close to enough courses in existence to accommodate those wishing to play, not to mention equipment (clubs, balls, shoes, apparel, etc.) is scarce. There's a real opportunity for architects here to get all kinds of work in India right now if they're willing to put the time and effort into travel, as the demand is real and there's financial backing for course development from the government.


As Sei Ri Pak was to the boom of golf in Korea, Aditi Ashok is poised to do the same in India. In short, continued growth of golf is more likely to result from investment in developing countries than it is in our own backyard. China's another candidate. And as we've witnessed elsewhere, all it takes is one highly recognizable and successful player to create a "buzz" and avalanche of interest.

That's an awful lot of pressure to put on a young woman whose game has yet to mature.  I hope she continues to advance in her career, as she seems like a wonderful role model, but pinning the fate of golf in her home country to her success is a lot to ask.


From my two brief stops there, India seemed a very hard place to build golf courses:  big parcels of land are hard to assemble, plus water is not plentiful and it's needed for other priorities.  There are undoubtedly exceptions to that, and I guess all booms are relative.  If it does, I hope my friend over there Vijit Nandrajog will get to build more new courses, instead of American firms.


And also - no, China is not another candidate, at least not in the next 10+ years.  The government there is hostile to golf.

[Paul Jones]

How many courses closed this year?  I know The Bluffs in Louisiana closed, once again, it has more to do with location since at one point it was the considered the best course in the state.

[David_Tepper]

"Why Golf Has Become The Pandemic Pastime"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-10-15/why-golf-has-become-the-pandemic-pastime?srnd=premium

Sorry if this is gated.
 

[D_Malley]

The supply (# of golf courses) is much more in line with current demand (# of golfers) right now then it has ever been. This could continue for a few years, but as we lose some players and the amount of new course openings increases it is likely to drift back to the way things were pre pandemic.

[Mike Bodo]

And also - no, China is not another candidate, at least not in the next 10+ years.  The government there is hostile to golf.

I find irony in the Bloomberg video David Tepper posted that the two largest Top Golf facilities are being built in China. If the government were so "anti-golf" I doubt they would be allowing this development, as a natural extension from this are golf courses new inductees in the sport can actually get out on and play. Should a Tiger Woods like talent emerge from China, watch the game explode there, as its China's intention to be the best in everything. 

[Dan Smoot]

I hope that a number of people have rediscovered the game and there will not be much of a dropoff.

[Tom_Doak]

And also - no, China is not another candidate, at least not in the next 10+ years.  The government there is hostile to golf.

I find irony in the Bloomberg video David Tepper posted that the two largest Top Golf facilities are being built in China. If the government were so "anti-golf" I doubt they would be allowing this development, as a natural extension from this are golf courses new inductees in the sport can actually get out on and play. Should a Tiger Woods like talent emerge from China, watch the game explode there, as its China's intention to be the best in everything.

Well, as someone who spent six years going back and forth to China to build a course that was not allowed to open, I beg to differ.


President Xi is opposed to the development of new courses.  He says it’s about the land and the water and potential corruption, but I think it was really just that golf (and especially gated golf communities) clashed too visibly with the supposed Communist ethos of China.  Top Golf doesn’t push those same buttons, so maybe it’s okay.


They have not outlawed golf altogether, or shuttered already-existing courses, so it’s possible golf will eventually make a comeback in China.  But I would happily bet some of what I got paid over there that they won’t build any more courses while Xi is in charge, and he seems intent on staying for a while.

[Jerry Kluger]

Tom: I would suggest that there are areas of this country where golf, and especially private golf clubs, are viewed with disdain and would like nothing more than to tax them out of existence.

[A.G._Crockett]

Tom: I would suggest that there are areas of this country where golf, and especially private golf clubs, are viewed with disdain and would like nothing more than to tax them out of existence.

This is a pretty big claim; can you be specific?  I live in one the bluest blue dots in the country and nothing like this is occurring.




“Viewed with disdain” is a personal attitude. “Tax them out of existence” would be public policy, and there is a world of difference, even if such a tax structure was legal, which I doubt.

[Jerry Kluger]

Burning Tree in Bethesda, MD is an all male club and was told by the county to open membership or they would take away their favorable property tax rate given to golf courses and make them pay tax as a commercially developed property - the course refused and wound up paying much higher taxes.  Columbia Country Club in Chevy Chase, a private club with a long history dating back to the early 1900s when they held a US Open, was part of the target when they decided to build a light rail/subway which runs on an overpass directly over the golf course - they said there was a need to build it so commuters would not have to take a subway which ran through downtown DC but it was generally understood that part of this was done to target the rich, private club.  (There were buses available already and the train could have been routed directly to Walter Reade which was the alleged reason that they needed to get workers to the hospital.)

[A.G._Crockett]

Burning Tree in Bethesda, MD is an all male club and was told by the county to open membership or they would take away their favorable property tax rate given to golf courses and make them pay tax as a commercially developed property - the course refused and wound up paying much higher taxes.  Columbia Country Club in Chevy Chase, a private club with a long history dating back to the early 1900s when they held a US Open, was part of the target when they decided to build a light rail/subway which runs on an overpass directly over the golf course - they said there was a need to build it so commuters would not have to take a subway which ran through downtown DC but it was generally understood that part of this was done to target the rich, private club.  (There were buses available already and the train could have been routed directly to Walter Reade which was the alleged reason that they needed to get workers to the hospital.)

Jerry,




Both of the cases are legal thickets that I won’t attempt to argue. The courts ruled long ago on the Burning Tree case, ant the Columbia CC case is certainly arguable from the other side.




I think it’s a pretty big stretch to look at either of these cases, both of which seem to me to be extreme outliers, as any sort of an attempt to unfairly tax private golf clubs, much less an attempt to tax private clubs out of existence. And I say that as a long-time (and current) private club member.

[Terry Lavin]

Done next year.

[jeffwarne]

Done next year.

I think there naturally will be some attrition.
Not everybody who tries it sticks with it, or can stick with it.
But I do think with so many people being exposed, with so much time and disposeable income(not spent on vacations/travel) that a certain percentage will stay with it.
I'd say in a year or two we end up with with 4-5 years worth of the natural organic growth we used to get before the powers that be got so obsessed with "growing the game".
But that will be down from the 10 years growth we got so suddenly last year with a captive audience. Many will stick it out-team golf will be a big winner, clawing a few kids away from for profit travel teams in other sports.
But many will go back to their previous lives.
Many of us in the industry will welcome a little return to normalcy, and many will be appreciative of the boom that lifted most boats, enabling many to live to fight anothe day.