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Duncan Cheslett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #50 on: May 06, 2021, 02:19:23 AM »
I suspect that the worry for the U.K. government and its scientific advisers is not so much a few thousand well-heeled tourists from the USA as tens of millions of Britons flying off on holiday, mixing with locals and tourists from other countries, and then returning with who knows what variants of Covid.


It would not be possible politically to prolong the current ban on U.K. citizens going abroad on holiday while allowing overseas tourists in.


We’ve got the equivalent of a mid term election in the U.K. today. Call me Mr Cynical,  but wouldn’t the government want to get that out of the way before announcing the bad news that no-one was going on holiday this year?



« Last Edit: May 06, 2021, 03:13:47 AM by Duncan Cheslett »

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #52 on: May 06, 2021, 06:45:05 PM »
I suspected the numbers for COVID deaths in the US were 20-25% under-reported, turns out even that was a low estimate.

A new study estimates that the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. is more than 900,000, a number 57% higher than official figures.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/06/994287048/new-study-estimates-more-than-900-000-people-have-died-of-covid-19-in-u-s
« Last Edit: May 06, 2021, 06:47:54 PM by Kalen Braley »

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0

MKrohn

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #54 on: May 07, 2021, 06:27:49 AM »
Australia may not open border till late 2022:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-06/australia-s-borders-may-not-open-until-late-2022-minister-says?srnd=premium


I'm up to my limit on reading BBerg articles (despite using their product for 20 years).


Presumably this is the reason we aren't that keen on opening [size=78%]Fully vaccinated travellers test positive in Sydney hotel quarantine (msn.com)[/size]


I admire the positivity about future travel, I just wont be involved.

Michael Goldstein

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #55 on: May 07, 2021, 04:21:06 PM »
New Zealand (and likely Australia) are living without covid and it's very likely we won't have quarantine-free long haul visitors until at least second half of 2022.  Certainly this is my thinking when factoring in when we might be able to get going again with major international events


@Pure_Golf

Daryl David

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #56 on: May 07, 2021, 07:47:11 PM »
New Zealand (and likely Australia) are living without covid and it's very likely we won't have quarantine-free long haul visitors until at least second half of 2022.  Certainly this is my thinking when factoring in when we might be able to get going again with major international events


I have a hard time seeing how AUS/NZ can continue border closures much beyond when both are fairly well vaccinated. What’s the point?  Covid will likely be with us throughout the rest of our lifetimes. With improved therapies and vaccination, it should become a manageable risk like other illnesses and activities. Kudos to both countries for keeping the virus at bay while waiting for a long term fix. That said, the ROI for walling yourself off from the world will rapidly diminish over the 6 months.

Ally Mcintosh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #57 on: May 08, 2021, 05:03:38 AM »


Daryl: I am sure you are right; countries can’t stay walled off until late 2022 so will need to balance the risks.


However, there will remain a lot of uncertainty and experimentation with this infection for a while longer. I think there will be a huge “fingers crossed” for the next northern hemisphere winter (21/22) as they start to work out whether vaccinations have remained effective or when and if boosters should or can be administered.


Meanwhile, you just need to look at India and Nepal for the saddest of stories. If it gets in to Africa in the same way, we have an even bigger humanitarian disaster on our hands.


And on that positive note, I’m off to play golf: We are open again in Ireland!
« Last Edit: May 08, 2021, 05:55:46 AM by Ally Mcintosh »

Dan_Callahan

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #58 on: May 08, 2021, 09:35:19 AM »
Meanwhile, you just need to look at India and Nepal for the saddest of stories. If it gets in to Africa in the same way, we have an even bigger humanitarian disaster on our hands.


There’s no question what is going on in India and surrounding countries has got to be a big red flag to international travel. I’ve pretty much given up on this summer. Might plan a trip out to Nebraska instead, and hope to maybe get to Ireland over Thanksgiving … or summer 2022, depending on where things stand.

Charles Lund

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #59 on: May 08, 2021, 04:25:45 PM »
The population of Australia is around 25 million and the population of New Zealand is around 5 million.  A small percentage of the population have been vaccinated, compared to other countries.  Australia and New Zealand would be able to achieve widespread vaccination due to the small population if there is an adequate supply. 


Tracking Coronavirus Vaccinations Around the World

https://nyti.ms/2Yqfz92

I did two trips a year to Australia from 2014 to 2019 and have been there 16 times. I do hope Australia moves to vaccinate their population. Once that happens, I would assume foreign travelers would likely have to provide evidence of being fully vaccinated as part of getting an Electronic Travel Authorization or boarding a flight to Australia.

I have read that late 2022 is a realistic time frame.

I cashed in some rebankable miles for a trip to Thailand in early 2022.  I will see what it looks like in early November.

Charles Lund
« Last Edit: May 12, 2021, 11:52:38 PM by Charles Lund »

Michael Whitaker

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #60 on: May 08, 2021, 04:57:43 PM »
Do any of you have any experience with the "Day 2 & Day 8" testing process in the UK?


I've been searching online for some information, but everything is so confusing. There seems to be a big controversy about travelers purchasing home test kits from authorized labs which never arrive. So, you are struck at home post-trip with no way to test out of the quarrantine.  >:(


Any advice on a reliable source for the tests... or, perhaps a clinic or testing centre that I could visit in person?




"Solving the paradox of proportionality is the heart of golf architecture."  - Tom Doak (11/20/05)

Craig Disher

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #61 on: May 08, 2021, 10:02:08 PM »
Do any of you have any experience with the "Day 2 & Day 8" testing process in the UK?


I've been searching online for some information, but everything is so confusing. There seems to be a big controversy about travelers purchasing home test kits from authorized labs which never arrive. So, you are struck at home post-trip with no way to test out of the quarrantine.  >:(


Any advice on a reliable source for the tests... or, perhaps a clinic or testing centre that I could visit in person?
If you're traveling in May you'll be the bellwether for many of us. I'm booked in late June but will cancel if a UK quarantine is still required. Testing seemed less difficult when I found a list of testing sites on UK gov website. The problem was getting to and from the test location and not violating the quarantine - which led to our decision to potentially cancel.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2021, 12:19:49 PM by Craig Disher »

Charles Lund

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #62 on: May 08, 2021, 11:34:21 PM »
Curious why the link to NYT table of vaccination rates in various countries got deleted from my post.


Charles Lund

Michael Whitaker

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #63 on: May 08, 2021, 11:43:10 PM »
Craig - everyone was shocked when the US was not on the Green list. Hope is that will change when they update the list in three weeks.


As for the testing... they send the tests to your self-quarantine location, which you have to register with the Gov before you leave the US. The lab mails you the test and you return the swabs via overnight mail. You must do the “2 Day & 8 Day” tests, no exceptions. However, you can take an extra test on day 5 which will release you from the quarantine (if negative, of course). The Gov either calls or texts you every day to check on you. Not sure how they know where you are, but that’s the system.


So, the quarantine is really just for 5 days if you test negative, but you still have to take the Day 8 test.


The problem has been that lots of people have purchased the tests online, then never received the kits! There are several Facebook groups discussing the issue.


I’m really surprised they didn’t create a scheme giving fully vaccinated individuals a break on all the testing.
"Solving the paradox of proportionality is the heart of golf architecture."  - Tom Doak (11/20/05)

Charles Lund

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #64 on: May 09, 2021, 12:03:35 AM »
Yes Bernie, but you travelling to Ireland is not about whether you are vaccinated. It’s about the people in Ireland who aren’t. And it’s about the restriction of moving new strains around the globe.


I really don’t think you will find the 5 day quarantine lifted this year. But I could be wrong. I would dearly love to visit my parents in Scotland who I have not seen since 2019.


With respect to prospects of international golf travel for U.S. passport holders, the low vaccination rates in many countries (relative to the U.S.) would seem to be a barrier for entry, despite low spread rates in other countries.  This would include countries like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea.


With respect to Tom Doak's question about completing five day quarantine to go on a golf trip in a country, for me it would depend on the length of the trip.  So five day quarantine for three or more weeks of golf in a country I really enjoy would start to balance the scale in a way where I would do the trip.


Charles Lund

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #65 on: May 09, 2021, 05:58:12 PM »
Considering you can be fully vaccinated and still contact COVID, and considering you can be fully vaccinated and spread COVID, I think waiting until next year to venture too far outside your "bubble" is a responsible thing to do.

Mark Chaplin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #66 on: May 09, 2021, 06:17:57 PM »
Mike - the issue is a tamper proof system of proof of vaccination. I’ve a signed card with the two batch numbers but it could be forged within an hour. For the nation as a whole there will be very little loss of visitor income as currently everywhere is fully booked by internal travel from the middle of this month.


September and October saw huge green fee revenues with groups usually in Spain, Portugal and Turkey treating themselves to high end U.K. trips.
Cave Nil Vino

Daryl David

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #67 on: May 09, 2021, 08:19:11 PM »
Considering you can be fully vaccinated and still contact COVID, and considering you can be fully vaccinated and spread COVID, I think waiting until next year to venture too far outside your "bubble" is a responsible thing to do.


If you really believe that, waiting a year won’t make it any different. Under your rationale, the responsible decision will be to never travel and never leave your bubble. Many years from now there will still be a chance you will contract Covid and a chance you will spread it during traveling. Covid is not going away. The thing that will change is people’s and their government’s attitude to the risk.

Daryl David

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #68 on: May 09, 2021, 08:28:05 PM »
I spent several hours the last two days researching potential travel from Nov 2021 through 2022. What I have learned is the world believes it will be open. The market is speaking. Top destinations are being swamped with bookings. Whether it be short term rentals or hotels, lodging is being snapped up. It would only make sense that rental cars, airline tickets and green fees are going to follow. If you want to test your blood pressure medicine, check out air prices and rental car fees in top warm weather destinations this winter.

Michael Whitaker

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #69 on: May 09, 2021, 09:02:55 PM »
Mike - the issue is a tamper proof system of proof of vaccination. I’ve a signed card with the two batch numbers but it could be forged within an hour. For the nation as a whole there will be very little loss of visitor income as currently everywhere is fully booked by internal travel from the middle of this month.


September and October saw huge green fee revenues with groups usually in Spain, Portugal and Turkey treating themselves to high end U.K. trips.
That's interesting, Mark. They don't have any trouble with apps and websites that allow you to access your bank accounts or historical health records... one would think they could create a verifiable system that allowed me to prove I've been vaccinated. If this was damaging the porno industry I guarantee you we would have had an app a LONG time ago!  ;)
"Solving the paradox of proportionality is the heart of golf architecture."  - Tom Doak (11/20/05)

Michael Whitaker

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #70 on: May 09, 2021, 09:14:04 PM »
Considering you can be fully vaccinated and still contact COVID, and considering you can be fully vaccinated and spread COVID, I think waiting until next year to venture too far outside your "bubble" is a responsible thing to do.
From the New York Times... major media outlets trumpeted new government data last week showing that 5,800 fully vaccinated Americans had contracted Covid. That may sound like a big number, but it indicates that a vaccinated person’s chances of getting Covid are about one in 11,000. The chances of getting a version any worse than a common cold are even more remote.But they are not zero. And they will not be zero anytime in the foreseeable future. Victory over Covid will not involve its elimination. Victory will instead mean turning it into the sort of danger that plane crashes or shark attacks present — too small to be worth reordering our lives.That is what the vaccines do. If you’re vaccinated, Covid presents a minuscule risk to you, and you present a minuscule Covid risk to anyone else. A car trip is a bigger threat, to you and others. About 100 Americans are likely to die in car crashes today. The new federal data suggests that either zero or one vaccinated person will die today from Covid.
"Solving the paradox of proportionality is the heart of golf architecture."  - Tom Doak (11/20/05)

Mike Sweeney

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #71 on: May 10, 2021, 05:19:55 AM »
About 100 Americans are likely to die in car crashes today. The new federal data suggests that either zero or one vaccinated person will die today from Covid.


One big difference is if that car crash is caused by the negligence of the car company you can sue them in open Federal Court with a Jury of Peers for damages:


https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/hyundai-kia-engine-fire-lawsuit/


The Pharma industry is protected from liability in "Vaccine Court". They do not admit fault, it is not open to the public, and it is not a Jury of Peers. Not even the Department of Defense has this protection (see Agent Orange lawsuits):


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Vaccine_Injury_Compensation_Program


"The Office of Special Masters of the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, popularly known as "vaccine court", administers a no-fault system for litigating vaccine injury claims. These claims against vaccine manufacturers cannot normally be filed in state or federal civil courts, but instead must be heard in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, sitting without a jury."

"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us."

Dr. Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

Michael Whitaker

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #72 on: May 10, 2021, 07:39:17 AM »
That’s an entirely different issue, Mike. It doesn’t have any impact on the efficacy of the vaccines. They are a modern medical miracle.
"Solving the paradox of proportionality is the heart of golf architecture."  - Tom Doak (11/20/05)

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +3/-1
Re: International Travel
« Reply #73 on: May 10, 2021, 11:11:51 AM »
From the New York Times... majormediaoutlets trumpeted new government data last week showing that 5,800 fully vaccinated Americans had contracted Covid. That may sound like a big number, but it indicates that a vaccinated person’s chances of getting Covid are about one in 11,000. The chances of getting a version any worse than a common cold are even more remote.But they are not zero. And they will not be zero anytime in the foreseeable future. Victory over Covid will not involve its elimination. Victory will instead mean turning it into the sort of danger that plane crashes or shark attacks present — too small to be worth reordering our lives.That is what the vaccines do. If you’re vaccinated, Covid presents a minuscule risk to you, and you present a minuscule Covid risk to anyone else. A car trip is a bigger threat, to you and others. About 100 Americans are likely to die in car crashes today. The new federal data suggests that either zero or one vaccinated person will die today from Covid.




I guess the vaccines are so safe that the CDC has decided not to track whether people get COVID afterward, unless they are hospitalized or die from it:


https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

Or maybe they just don't want to know?
« Last Edit: May 10, 2021, 12:08:05 PM by Tom_Doak »

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: International Travel
« Reply #74 on: May 10, 2021, 11:29:46 AM »
Tom,

Isn't that what we're trying to solve with the vaccines?  Getting sick from it and being under the weather for a few days is one thing.  But requiring a trip to the ICU where you might die is an entirely different animal.

As has been mentioned, the goal has never been to eradicate it, its to gain herd immunity and not die from it...