A shot from a perfectly raked bunker is a 60%+ up-and-down for the Tour guys in the "perfect lie" scenario.
Just under a half-shot penalty seems appropriate for a bunker and Hugh Wilson agreed. He argued that if a bunker was ultimately no different from a water hazard with a drop there is no point in having a bunker.
That attitude is how we got the White Faces of Merion.
Is that the right way to think about a half-shot penalty, though? If we think greenside bunkers, you've already missed the green. That alone is about a half-shot penalty for a pro, right?
So if a bunker is really just a "different" kind of lie to get up-and-down from, but not really a "hazard" that's substantially more or less difficult than lying in the rough, or on short grass... I guess that's starting to feel pretty boring to me when I watch pro golf.
I don't see the same issue in my daily playing life - if I'm playing a match against a guy, I'd generally rather see his ball splash into the sand than roll into the rough. But there's rarely any real drama that stems from watching high-level golf when a guy hits into a bunker as compared to missing anywhere else around the green. So like, what's even the point of having bunkers? Just to punish amateurs and make pictures look prettier, and force us to replace our wedges a little more often?
I think there's a big opportunity to inject a little more drama and strategy into the proceedings by allowing hazards to play a little more like hazards. It's a fine line - I don't want them to be impossible or anything - but more of an appreciable bind that requires a higher degree of execution for recovery as compared with other greenside misses seems about right. Whereas creating sand conditions that are honed to deliver excellent lies consistently seems about wrong.