A shot from a perfectly raked bunker is a 60%+ up-and-down for the Tour guys in the "perfect lie" scenario.
Just under a half-shot penalty seems appropriate for a bunker and Hugh Wilson agreed. He argued that if a bunker was ultimately no different from a water hazard with a drop there is no point in having a bunker.
That attitude is how we got the White Faces of Merion.
how are you getting a half-shot penalty? Assume rough, instead of a bunker, and maybe the up and down is 75%, so the delta there is 15%, not 50%. (Yes, I pulled those number out of my booty!).
Modern bunkers are nowhere near enough of a penalty, IMHO. I want to see everyone fear the unpredictable nature of greenside bunkers. You go into one and you think ... "Uh oh, what awaits me when I get there," instead of "I will likely make par and almost certainly not make double-bogey."
In other words, I would like it to be where a 30-yard pitch OVER a bunker is perhaps the preferred leave than IN the bunker -- due to its unpredictable nature.
Do this through placement and number, not lie. Contour funneling a ball to a bunker 20 yards from the landing spot, etc.
Hugh Wilson's point is compelling. The minute recovery becomes more costly than a stroke, you've just created a penalty area.
This is false logic. Water hazards almost always result in a 1 shot penalty. Bunkers on average for pros results in less than a 1 shot penalty. In truth it may be no penalty or it may be a few strokes. Using "average" results can be very misleading.
Ciao
Wilson's point was more that if a bunker even carried a substantial risk of a greater-than-one-shot penalty then it is as bad/worse than a water hazard where you generally MUST take a stroke penalty and drop. Why have the bunker be so penal that it is as such and then *force* the player to extricate himself. If you are almost guaranteed to take more than one shot from a bunker due to it's design/maintenance what are you proving?
There is a Venn Diagram of "luck" and "skill" when it comes to a bunker but the bunker is probably more compelling when greater than half the surface area of each circle is within the overlap.
All told, I think this supports what I think is your opinion that most bunker schemes are over done.