Erik,
Reed clearly said to Fabel that the ball didn't bounce.
He adjusted what he asked the volunteer, "did it bounce?" and her answer of "No, I didn't see it bounce" to telling Fabel she said it didn't bounce. These are two different things.
Fabel arrives with the understanding that the ball didn't bounce. Period, Full Stop.
When you reach down to touch the ground in wet rough there are all sorts of micro bumps and holes, including the crown of the grass itself. Fabel had nothing to do. The minimum limit for a ball qualifying as embedded is to simply break the surface. Easy to find supporting evidence and nearly impossible to refute.
Humorously, the higher you want the ball to have bounced, the firmer the ground must have been...making it all the less likely to have embedded.
My simple position on this is that the ball did not in fact plug and that became clear to all involved before the start of Round 4...and I would have absolutely loved for him to say..."well damn, based on everything we knew or thought, we acted appropriately. Upon further evidence, the ball must not have embedded so please add 2". Then it would have been great to see him go out and flat out win the tournament.