Golf Course Design - TPC Sawgrass, Augusta National & which pros play well

[AChao]

Just a random note which I thought the group would find interesting.  From a little bit of my research to confirm this a little but mostly after hearing about some study results from a person who does a lot of this ...


TPC Sawgrass and the Players is the course that is the least "horse for course" on tour -- meaning, it has the greatest variety of winners and is most difficult to predict a winner.  In other words, it has the least player characteristic bias.  Theoretically, the player who is playing best is most likely to win as opposed to the player with the right skill sets.  (I've always really liked playing the course but couldn't put a finger on why -- maybe I like it's unique balance if you call it that.)


A little surprising to me is that despite winners like Zach Johnson and Mike Weir, Augusta National is one of the most "horse for course" courses.  The person said that the winner is usually one of the ones with highest probability from models based on previous performance at the course and current form.  (I've never played the course so don't have a comment.) 


Results at The Masters is relatively predictable while results from The Players is totally not. 

[Tom_Doak]

Doesn't some of that have to do with strength of field?  The Players Championship includes the 144 guys most likely to win.  The Masters includes about half that many, so all of the favorites have a stronger chance.

[Kalen Braley]

This is an interesting topic that's been discussed before.  A couple of months ago, I looked at all the major winners over the last 11 years comprising 43 winners, and did a bit of analysis.

- 93% of major winners in the last 11 years were ranked in the top 50 in the OWR heading into the tournament. Only 3 overall were outside the top 50 and the last time this happened was in 2011 when Keegan Bradley won the PGA.
- 44% of those major winners were ranked in the top 10 in the OWR heading into the tournament.
- Since 2012 there have been 35 majors winners and only 2 of them were outside the top 30! (Els - 39, Lowry - 33)

I'll take a closer look at Masters vs Players winners in the last 20 years for my next post...

[Ben Hollerbach]

Data Golf has looked at courses similarly and for Augusta National they have determined that experience plays a large factor in success.


 Suggesting that a players best performance at the Masters comes round years 8,9,10 and experience at the masters allows players to continue to be successful there. They weight past experience as having a larger impact there than virtually any other course.

[Tom_Doak]

Data Golf has looked at courses similarly and for Augusta National they have determined that experience plays a large factor in success.


 Suggesting that a players best performance at the Masters comes round years 8,9,10 and experience at the masters allows players to continue to be successful there. They weight past experience as having a larger impact there than virtually any other course.

Likewise, that data might be biased by the fact that you only get ten years' experience at Augusta if you are a great player.


I have no doubt that local knowledge is very important at Augusta, it's just hard to ascribe it to the data.

[Kalen Braley]

Some data points on winners of The Players & Masters from 2020-2000

Masters: 21 winners
- Number of winners ranked in top 10 of OWGR entering the week: 11
- Number of winners ranked outside the top 25: 4
- Number of winners ranked outside the top 50: 2 (Zach Johnson, Angel Cabrera)
- Number of repeat winners:  3: Woods - 4, Mickelson - 3, Watson - 2
- Average OWGR of winner: 15

The Players: 20 winners
- Number of winners ranked in top 10 of OWGR entering the week: 8
- Number of winners ranked outside the top 25: 7
- Number of winners ranked outside the top 50: 5
- Number of repeat winners: 1: Woods - 2
- Average OWGR of winners: 24 (This excludes Craig Perks as he was an extreme outlier!)
- Number of winners who never won a major: 8

[AChao]

Yes ... even adjusted for traditional strength of field ... much wider spectrum at Sawgrass.

Doesn't some of that have to do with strength of field?  The Players Championship includes the 144 guys most likely to win.  The Masters includes about half that many, so all of the favorites have a stronger chance.

[AChao]

Yes ... number of repeat winners and if you look at top 5 or 10.

Some data points on winners of The Players & Masters from 2020-2000

Masters: 21 winners
- Number of winners ranked in top 10 of OWGR entering the week: 11
- Number of winners ranked outside the top 25: 4
- Number of winners ranked outside the top 50: 2 (Zach Johnson, Angel Cabrera)
- Number of repeat winners:  3: Woods - 4, Mickelson - 3, Watson - 2
- Average OWGR of winner: 15

The Players: 20 winners
- Number of winners ranked in top 10 of OWGR entering the week: 8
- Number of winners ranked outside the top 25: 7
- Number of winners ranked outside the top 50: 5
- Number of repeat winners: 1: Woods - 2
- Average OWGR of winners: 24 (This excludes Craig Perks as he was an extreme outlier!)
- Number of winners who never won a major: 8