[Simon Holt]

Totally understandable.  Just where people can leave the money as credit I hope they will.  Some clubs will need that cash to make it through after a whole year of maybe 10% the income they would have budgeted for in 2020.  If everyone starts pulling the ripcord on 2021 then it'll be game over as we know it for some of them.


Regardless of thoughts on the visitor model, we are where we are.  These small hotels, clubs, transportation providers, caddies, restaurants, bars, taxis have all been crushed.

[Ally Mcintosh]

I’m hoping to make my Gullane trip first weekend in June, staying at Bonnie Badger. But who knows.


What I do know is what Simon says. There are some pretty big clubs that are already in trouble financially. Another year of the same could spell the end as we know it for one or two.

[David_Tepper]

No more cheap flights across the pond:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/14/norwegian-axes-long-haul-flights-and-cuts-1100-gatwick-jobs

I had already bought tickets for Aug/Sept flights over & back. Just filed for my refund.

[Mark Pearce]

FWIW I'm signed up to ride 4 stages of the Tour de France route this Summer.  It was due to be at the end of June but on advice from medics and governments the organisers have moved it back to early September.  I think there's a growing suspicion that we'll remain under restrictions of some sort in most of Western Europe until early Summer at the earliest.  What that means for golf trips, who knows.  The biggest question is probably quarantine requirements for entrants and whether these are eased by negative tests or certificates of vaccination.  I'd be nervous about late Spring at this stage.

[Thomas Dai]

FWIW I'm signed up to ride 4 stages of the Tour de France route this Summer.  It was due to be at the end of June but on advice from medics and governments the organisers have moved it back to early September.

Sounds like a wonderful adventure. Well done for giving it a go. Good luck.
Atb

[Mark Pearce]

FWIW I'm signed up to ride 4 stages of the Tour de France route this Summer.  It was due to be at the end of June but on advice from medics and governments the organisers have moved it back to early September.

Sounds like a wonderful adventure. Well done for giving it a go. Good luck.
Atb

Thanks!  I may need it, 3 of them are mountain stages, 2 in the Alps and the one that climbs Ventoux twice.  Its the weekend after BUDA now, so my participation in late night drinking may be very limited there....

[Tony_Muldoon]

FWIW I'm signed up to ride 4 stages of the Tour de France route this Summer.  It was due to be at the end of June but on advice from medics and governments the organisers have moved it back to early September.

Sounds like a wonderful adventure. Well done for giving it a go. Good luck.
Atb

Or sheer bloody madness!




2021 route.  So you get to the top of the mountain....not just any mountain a legend in the Tour de France, then head down to a lower point than you started the climb first time...and without a cake break, do it again.




https://fb.watch/2ZIYNY8aZH/ 


Chapeau!

[Mark Chaplin]

Simon I think a number of clubs especially in Scotland will need to start charging their members a realistic proportion of the running costs. RCP did OK last year despite the pandemic but then the members pay between 3x and 6x the fees of some pretty well know clubs north of the border.


If the Government achieves its target of 30m by the end of March very few people will be vaccinated from then until July due to the second wave of jabs. I reckon we will be wearing masks out well into the Autumn.

[Ally Mcintosh]

I think we could be wearing masks for years to be honest, certainly in some settings.

[Tom_Doak]

If the Government achieves its target of 30m by the end of March very few people will be vaccinated from then until July due to the second wave of jabs. I reckon we will be wearing masks out well into the Autumn.

I reckon we'll be wearing masks well into 2022, if we don't want to take a chance of infecting others who have yet to be vaccinated.  And then you have to consider the 5% of people for whom the vaccine is ineffective -- in America, that's another 10 million plus who will get the virus even after they are vaccinated.  Hopefully we won't just write them all off.

[Simon Holt]

Without question we'll be wearing masks into 2022 and beyond that.  We seem to be doing a decent job with the vaccine rollout in the UK so it will be interesting to see how quickly that helps the numbers.  In theory if we get most people over 70 we break the back of it.  As ever, for this specific topic of travel, it all hinges on a robust, safe solution for the airlines to operate.


Mark, you're of course correct about members having to take on more of the costs but it will be interesting to see what effect that has going forward.  For arguments sake, member subs increase for the next couple of years to take more weight, do members then get used to that so we have less visitor times going forward?  Less supply of the tee times at those sought after courses driving visitor prices up?  It could change the way UK golf operates which would be sad.


I'm more inclined to think once we know we are firmly on the way out of this, we'll see the situation with respect to the UK visitor model as the bilp it is.  Members will take up the slack, then it will return closer to what it was before but with a bit more taken on by the members going forward.


Simon

[Thomas Dai]

I think we could be wearing masks for years to be honest, certainly in some settings.

I fear the same. First World, Second World, Third World. 7.8 billion people. That’s a lot of vaccine injections. Fingers crossed ... legs and toes too.
Atb

[Ally Mcintosh]

I think we could be wearing masks for years to be honest, certainly in some settings.

I fear the same. First World, Second World, Third World. 7.8 billion people. That’s a lot of vaccine injections. Fingers crossed ... legs and toes too.
Atb

Well I do think that supply of the vaccine will be a little slower than the over-promises being given. This is a little dependent on how many more candidate vaccines get market approval over the coming 12 months.


But my point is more around duration of effectiveness with the likelihood of seasonal variants in the virus and no barrier to transmission. I guess there’s a reasonable chance that the virus becomes endemic and that yearly vaccinations will be needed.


With the above in mind, masks will be the last abnormal measure to disappear because it is the only measure (aside from washing hands) that does not directly affect economic recovery.


Many societies in Asia have been wearing masks for years. I expect the rest of the world will follow.

[Sean_A]

Shit, I wore a mask while living in Japan back in 1989. It was very common for people not feeling well to wear a mask. I think many people wore them in crowded public areas not to catch anything as well. I too think we will see masks stick around for some people...and it makes sense.

Ciao

[JohnVDB]

Without question we'll be wearing masks into 2022 and beyond that.

My girlfriend works at a high school. Next year will be her last before retire,ent.  She has already told the others at school she’ll be wearing a mask at school all year even though she will have gotten the vaccination.

[Mark Pearce]

FWIW I'm signed up to ride 4 stages of the Tour de France route this Summer.  It was due to be at the end of June but on advice from medics and governments the organisers have moved it back to early September.

Sounds like a wonderful adventure. Well done for giving it a go. Good luck.
Atb

Or sheer bloody madness!




2021 route.  So you get to the top of the mountain....not just any mountain a legend in the Tour de France, then head down to a lower point than you started the climb first time...and without a cake break, do it again.




https://fb.watch/2ZIYNY8aZH/ 


Chapeau!

Must admit to being a bit frightened by that stage, which is the last of the four I do.  Not least as I'll have 375 miles in the legs when I start that second climb up Ventoux.


I've given up trying to predict how things will develop.  However, bear in mind that as the vaccination program progresses, the proportion of immune people increases, so the R number goes down.  Also, the evidence of last Summer was that the R number reduces in warmer weather.  We may be wearing masks for some time to come and there may remain restrictions on events which promote density of people (I imagine sports stadia will be operating at restricted capacity, for instance) but the balance between the damage caused by the disease and the damage caused by restrictions will likely have fundamentally shifted by late Summer, so restrictions will be fewer and lighter.  I hope.

[Niall C]

Simon I think a number of clubs especially in Scotland will need to start charging their members a realistic proportion of the running costs. RCP did OK last year despite the pandemic but then the members pay between 3x and 6x the fees of some pretty well know clubs north of the border.


If the Government achieves its target of 30m by the end of March very few people will be vaccinated from then until July due to the second wave of jabs. I reckon we will be wearing masks out well into the Autumn.

Mark


I think pretty well all Scottish clubs do charge a realistic proportion of the running costs otherwise they would go bust. Sometimes the reason why the subs are so low are because visitor income makes up a significant proportion of income but more often than not it is because the clubs are fairly modest in terms of their operating costs. There are very few where you get waited on hand and foot. I love RCP but how well do you think it compares to the vast majority of clubs in Scotland ?


Niall   

[Duncan Cheslett]

It was very interesting to receive the annual accounts from Silloth this week.


Despite annual subs of only £550 the club received enough in membership income to cover entirely the cost of maintaining the course.  Around half of Silloth’s members live over a hundred miles from the club. If subs were more on a par with clubs nearer major centres of population not only would many locals be likely to leave - a lot of distance members would too. I can justify £550 pa to play there maybe a dozen times. I’m not sure I could £850!


Despite losing a quarter of the year because of lockdown and another month when closed to visitors from tier 3 areas, the club received sufficient in green fee income to cover all other overhead expenses resulting in a small surplus.


This model of a 50:50 split between member and visitor income is one common at many clubs across the country, particularly in sparsely populated areas. Cavendish is another good example - around half our income comes from visitors from the surrounding areas of dense population.


The traditional model of the elite clubs such as Deal depends far more on membership income at a far higher rate of subscription. Not all clubs are able to work this way.

[Ryan Coles]

Looking at RCP on companies house, the split is 800k subs 600k greenfees. And a £300k surplus. Lucky them, but does seem the RCP members are not shy of letting visitor income cover running costs themselves. A typical club in my area will only take 15% max of golf income via non members.


I think a lot of uk member clubs will do ok this year at least. The money pit clubhouses closed combined with furlough scheme & no business rates will see to that.

[Duncan Cheslett]

If those are the figures RCP is in a very fortunate (and unusual) position. They have the best of both worlds. £600k in green fees is not much short of Silloth’s entire annual turnover, yet they still manage to maintain a course ranking in England’s top 20.


As for your second point, I am constantly amazed by how many club golfers believe that clubhouses are profit centres and that being closed through covid has been financially catastrophic.


Your take of course, is the truth. Clubhouses are money pits - most clubs would benefit from selling them off and operating out of a small shack.

[Niall C]

I think a lot of uk member clubs will do ok this year at least. The money pit clubhouses closed combined with furlough scheme & no business rates will see to that.

Ryan


That seems logical. I wonder if the clubs will learn a lesson from that and start cutting back on clubhouse costs going forward.


Niall

[David_Tepper]

Are quarantine hotels coming?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-17/u-k-considering-all-measures-at-border-to-curb-virus-raab-says?srnd=premium

[Thomas Dai]

I think a lot of uk member clubs will do ok this year at least. The money pit clubhouses closed combined with furlough scheme & no business rates will see to that.

Ryan
That seems logical. I wonder if the clubs will learn a lesson from that and start cutting back on clubhouse costs going forward.
Niall

Makes me wonder at what point the cost to demolish an OTT spec, money-pit CH and install a small, low spec replacement equates to the loss of £ to operate the OTT, money-pit CH? Might be a few years but after that .......
Atb

[Duncan Cheslett]

It would certainly make sense for many clubs to franchise out the entire F&B operation to an outside contractor in return for a fixed annual fee.


I’ve seen the transformation this can make to a club’s finances at first hand.

[Ally Mcintosh]

Regards RCP, 600k in green fees is actually a bit less than I would have expected for such a prestigious club. I’m guessing they limit visitor times considerably.


Lahinch lost over €2M from a projected €2.5M in green fees this year. There are one or two other clubs in Ireland not far off that.

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