[Mike Feeney]

Looking for advice or just hunches from Scottish brethren.

Have a East Lothian trip booked, from US, for late May.
Drop of quarantine requirements and a return to normalcy likely or a long-shot?

[Simon Holt]

Mike,


Scotland will be fine then in terms of courses and hotels etc, as it was for much of 2020 post June.  We just weren't allowing anyone in from the US without the 14-day quarantine.


The UK Transport Secretary announced that from Dec 15 England is reducing quarantine from 14 days to 5 days if you pay for and receive a negative test result in those 5 days.  Who knows if Scotland will follow.


Until now our politicians have been pretty conservative with predictions but they are close to unanimous that all will be well by Easter.  That is entirely dependent on vaccine rollout which starts next week in the UK as a whole, from next Tuesday in Scotland.  For all their mistakes, the UK government seems to have backed enough horses to have 20% of the global supply of the Pfizer vaccine produced before the end of the year, coming to the UK.


You asked for a gut feel and mine is that we will be green light go for the golf season for a multitude of reasons I wont list now.  The vaccine news and the already reduced quarantine announcement that came before the vaccine approval are the biggest indicators that we are heading in the right direction.


For the sake of courses, hotels, transportation providers and the wider Scottish/UK/Ireland tourism industry, let's all hope that gut feel is correct.


Simon

[jeffwarne]

Mike,


Scotland will be fine then in terms of courses and hotels etc, as it was for much of 2020 post June.  We just weren't allowing anyone in from the US without the 14-day quarantine.


The UK Transport Secretary announced that from Dec 15 England is reducing quarantine from 14 days to 5 days if you pay for and receive a negative test result in those 5 days.  Who knows if Scotland will follow.


Until now our politicians have been pretty conservative with predictions but they are close to unanimous that all will be well by Easter.  That is entirely dependent on vaccine rollout which starts next week in the UK as a whole, from next Tuesday in Scotland.  For all their mistakes, the UK government seems to have backed enough horses to have 20% of the global supply of the Pfizer vaccine produced before the end of the year, coming to the UK.


You asked for a gut feel and mine is that we will be green light go for the golf season for a multitude of reasons I wont list now.  The vaccine news and the already reduced quarantine announcement that came before the vaccine approval are the biggest indicators that we are heading in the right direction.


For the sake of courses, hotels, transportation providers and the wider Scottish/UK/Ireland tourism industry, let's all hope that gut feel is correct.


Simon

I think that's an accurate assessement Simon.
Add in that by April, the most vulnerable will be vaccinated and the risk will be greatly diminished that you would infect someone more vulnerable.
Not sure I'd travel with a 5 day quarantine-they gotta figure a way to let you slip outside for golf!
I wonder if there will be a reluctance to travel, or pent up demand next spring/summer.

[Duncan Cheslett]

The very suggestion provokes fury in some, but I can see the requirement for a vaccination certificate becoming the norm for international travel.

[jeffwarne]

The very suggestion provokes fury in some, but I can see the requirement for a vaccination certificate becoming the norm for international travel.

zero problem with that.
better than being denied entry altogether.

[Ally Mcintosh]

A bigger problem is the lack of people that will take up the vaccination option.


And don’t underestimate how long it will take to roll out.


Still, I think the option to travel will be there. Things just won’t be “normal”.

[Tim Martin]

Mike,


Scotland will be fine then in terms of courses and hotels etc, as it was for much of 2020 post June.  We just weren't allowing anyone in from the US without the 14-day quarantine.


The UK Transport Secretary announced that from Dec 15 England is reducing quarantine from 14 days to 5 days if you pay for and receive a negative test result in those 5 days.  Who knows if Scotland will follow.


Until now our politicians have been pretty conservative with predictions but they are close to unanimous that all will be well by Easter.  That is entirely dependent on vaccine rollout which starts next week in the UK as a whole, from next Tuesday in Scotland.  For all their mistakes, the UK government seems to have backed enough horses to have 20% of the global supply of the Pfizer vaccine produced before the end of the year, coming to the UK.


You asked for a gut feel and mine is that we will be green light go for the golf season for a multitude of reasons I wont list now.  The vaccine news and the already reduced quarantine announcement that came before the vaccine approval are the biggest indicators that we are heading in the right direction.


For the sake of courses, hotels, transportation providers and the wider Scottish/UK/Ireland tourism industry, let's all hope that gut feel is correct.


Simon

I think that's an accurate assessement Simon.
Add in that by April, the most vulnerable will be vaccinated and the risk will be greatly diminished that you would infect someone more vulnerable.
Not sure I'd travel with a 5 day quarantine-they gotta figure a way to let you slip outside for golf!
I wonder if there will be a reluctance to travel, or pent up demand next spring/summer.

Regardless of a vaccine or an “all clear” signal there will be that segment that stays put and may stay put ad infinitum. Most especially those that are seniors.

[Tim Gallant]

Mike,


I'd have the same impression as Simon - I think by late May things will certainly be opened up moreso than at any point in 2020 post-March. I still think there may be some sort of quarantine, particularly from countries that have a high prevalence of Covid, but things will be opened back up. JMHO.

[David_Tepper]

A minor, but still relevant, concern is whether or not the airline you are planning to fly will still be in business and/or if the flights you have booked will get cancelled. I have flown Norwegian Air multiple times back and forth to Britain over the past 2-3 years, but that may not happen next year. 

[Simon Holt]

David,


You are absolutely correct and in the same breath that is one of the other reasons I feel we'll be back open. 


It's not just the airlines that are getting hammered, but in this specific case the Scottish airports.  As soon as the government can justifiably and safely open up routes, there is a strong feeling they have to immediately for the sake of a wider industry that makes up a decent percentage of our GDP.


I've booked a few 2021 flights to the US in the past 6 months that are fully changeable, with "big" airlines that are hopefully more resistant to their current economic situation.  Transatlantic flights are cheap now but my guess is they will jump the moment the US lifts the ban on UK/Europeans coming into the US, along with us reducing the quarantine further here.


To touch upon reluctance to fly/pent up demand, I'd say without question it swings towards the latter thankfully.  Tim Martin is correct about the older traveller who may still be nervous, but for the most part people want to get going again as long as they can do so without fear of being sent home or quarantined on arrival. 


There is hardly a tee time to be found in 2021 at the top courses because of rescheduled 2020 trips and new 2021 bookings that have understandably aimed for the middle to end of the summer.  If you want a trip that hits all the big names, it's 2022 that people should be looking at and fast - especially with the Open at St Andrews in July '22.


Simon

[JohnVDB]

The very suggestion provokes fury in some, but I can see the requirement for a vaccination certificate becoming the norm for international travel.

As an old timer, I remember when you had to have proof of smallpox vaccinations to travel overseas.  If people don’t like it, they don’t have to travel.

[Tom_Doak]

As an old timer, I remember when you had to have proof of smallpox vaccinations to travel overseas.  If people don’t like it, they don’t have to travel.

Yes, but there were not 5-10 different, unproven, vaccines.


We seem so anxious to find a solution that everyone is going to pick a winner in the dark, and then shrug their shoulders if/when the given vaccine proves less effective than they thought.  Whocouldanode? 

Sort of like this thread.


EDIT:  To be clear, I suspect I have as much interest in the return of international travel as anyone here, on multiple fronts, and I hope it can be done safely.  But I do believe it is COMPANIES that will make the rules, and companies may not always have their customers' health and well being as their #1 priority.

[David_Tepper]

This is from sfgate.com:

Travel to the U.K. will get a little easier after Dec. 15. That’s when the government there is changing the rules for international arrivals coming from a country — like the U.S. — that is not on the U.K.’s “travel corridor” list of safe places. Those arriving travelers will still have to self-quarantine, but they will be able to limit that quarantine to just five days if they get a negative result on a COVID-19 test. The program is called Test to Release, and it requires inbound visitors to pay for their own test (about $130) after a five-day quarantine, using a government-approved provider. Those providers should be listed on the government’s website (www.gov.uk) after Dec. 15. Why not just let visitors get tested at the arrival airport? “The government has considered the evidence which demonstrates that a test after five days of self-isolation provides materially better results than just having a test on arrival, as it allows time for the virus, should it be present, to incubate, helping reduce the risk of a false negative result,” the U.K. said in its announcement.

[Brian_Ewen]

As an old timer, I remember when you had to have proof of smallpox vaccinations to travel overseas.  If people don’t like it, they don’t have to travel.

Yes, but what are going to use for proof?


UK Governments have no plans to issue certificates or the like for this vaccine.

[Tom_Doak]

As an old timer, I remember when you had to have proof of smallpox vaccinations to travel overseas.  If people don’t like it, they don’t have to travel.

Yes, but what are going to use for proof?


UK Governments have no plans to issue certificates or the like for this vaccine.

I have with my passport a yellow vaccination certificate, which in theory you need to show to enter African countries that you've been vaccinated against typhoid, hepatitis, or malaria, depending on where you're going.  There's a doctor's signature and a date for each vaccine.  But nobody has ever checked it, in my limited experience.

[Niall C]

FWIW I agree with Simon with his opinion having far more weight than mine on this subject. With regard to take up on receiving the vaccine I'll certainly be looking to take the vaccine as soon as. I get the flu jab every year with little thought so happy to take my chances on the COVID vaccine if it allows me to get on with my life. I suspect a great many will be the same.


Niall

[Daryl David]

The US will issue cards.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/health/covid-19-vaccination-kit-record-card/index.html


Also some countries will likely adopt Commonpass
https://thecommonsproject.org/commonpass

[Mike Feeney]

Our small group of 8 agreed our May trip to East Lothian, from US, has too much uncertainty -- especially with the new strain of COVID in-play.
 Therefore, we decided to cancel the trip.  Refunds were issued happily by airlines, hotels, and by 5 of the 6 East Lothian clubs (Gullane, included) in our itinerary.  However, North Berwick was not as accommodating -- providing us vouchers that expire in October 2021.  I suspect the fine print of the booking stipulated this refund policy. 

I was surprised -- perhaps I am not being sensitive to the challenges of NB's visitor-dependent business model.
Thoughts?




 

[Mark Chaplin]

I’d be pretty confident for stress free international travel from early July, but there is still a risk of short sharp lockdowns, border closures and cancelled flights before then. I’m not intending to travel overseas until a golf and cricket tour to Argentina in December.


I’d say the Open in July is currently 50:50 for spectators.

[David_Tepper]

The latest news on traveling to the U.K.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55582116

[Tim Martin]

It does not look promising as I pen this that there will be spectators at the British Open. I’m hoping I’m wrong.

[Ally Mcintosh]

Sorry to be all pessimistic but not a hope will there be more than a few thousand spectators (at most) let through the gates each day for The Open.


If we are lucky with the way this pandemic plays out, there will be some restrictions well in to 2022. Goodness knows when large indoor events will be back in play at full capacity with no masks.

[Tim Martin]

Sorry to be all pessimistic but not a hope will there be more than a few thousand spectators (at most) let through the gates each day for The Open.


If we are lucky with the way this pandemic plays out, there will be some restrictions well in to 2022. Goodness knows when large indoor events will be back in play at full capacity with no masks.

The real reckoning for the golf business will not come until 2022. Destination golf that requires air travel and more specifically international travel will continue to lag significantly in 2021. The popularity of the “home game” will remain on the rise and the smartest operators will reap the rewards.

[Simon Holt]

I missed all these posts for over New Year etc.  I'm still confident the golf season will be a "go", but it'll all hang on air travel and the restrictions on North American/Asian visitors coming into the UK.  It's not pretty and April/May seems very close now all of a sudden. 


Tim M - I'm a member at North Berwick, along with a few others on the DG, and they wont be the only club doing that come middle of the year if travel doesn't open up.  There were other threads 10 months ago concerning refunds for golf tee times in Scotland and I suggested then that this would hit the heavy visitor footfall clubs/courses far harder than we could all imagine.  Unfortunately that has proved to be right.  There will be some very well healed clubs running on fumes if the first half of the year doesn't materialise. 


Where clubs/courses are offering a credit that works for you date-wise, I'd urge everyone to take it rather than a refund unless you really need that cash.

[Tim Martin]

Where clubs/courses are offering a credit that works for you date-wise, I'd urge everyone to take it rather than a refund unless you really need that cash.

Simon-I like the idea of switching the dates but the timeframe is nebulous and not everyone has the luxury of tying up their money indefinitely.

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