John,
First of all you know more about the rules then the rest of this board combined, and have had "real world" experience implementing them. I certainly appreciate your insight on this board with your experiences and expertise.
My experience is merely anecdotal, dealing with member events, and whatever rules incidents have cropped up in my group in Section,some National/International and MGA events.
That said,as you may have surmised I was not a fan of the attempt to simplify the rules a few years back, because I felt the rules, while complicated, were really well written if one took the time to learn the definitions, then by extension, the rules. So many simply don't bother to learn the definitions, and therefore struggle with the rules, and don't know where in the rulebook to look when there's an issue.
It used to be if you even suspected your ball was lying precariously, you simply didn't ground the club, a la Jack Nicklaus.
With the current rule, there simply is too much wiggle room, and fellow competitors tend to shy away from chiming in,especially if they have a personal relationship with the player in question-or immediately simply say he didn't cause it to move.
I haven't had a ball move since the rule changed, because I still go with the no grounding practice to avoid it whenever the lie is uncertain.Heck, I'm still afraid to sole the club in grass in a penalty area because I'm conditioned not to.
I think I'm ok with the rare,occasional "unfair penalty" such as the one you describe in paragraph 1.
I'm not OK with the popularity contest that goes on whenever a ball moves AFTER address, usually resulting in no penalty.
I guess I really don't believe in coincidences.
I guess I also have a problem with nearly anything that changes in the rules to make them more "fair", and/or rules that are changed due to the cry for rules being too complicated.
I think we both can agree the rule is MORE complicated now(deeming what caused it to move).
We just disagree on whether more "fair"is better, or even more "fair" at all.
I could easily say the penalties that AREN'T called after addressing are unfair to the rest of the field, who might play the same shot/lie while hovering to avoid ball movement(a more difficult thing to do)
Anecdotally, before the rules changes-I watched Darrel Kestner win a MET PGA by being wise enough to NOT ground his putter on a slick downhill, downwind 20 footer.
A gust hit the ball and trickled it down to 2 feet and he tapped in for birdie to win.
Under the new rules, that would've been very controversial had he soled his club anywhere near the ball(which one would be more likely to do now with new rules), as a determination would've had to have been made as to whether he caused it to move.
The difference between winning and losing the Section Championship hanging in the balance. Fortunately, he's one of the most popular players in the Section