John Conley,
If you get a minute, detail what you mean when you write that "adding length on some holes actually reverses the advantage of long hitters."
I'm trying to understand why there is such a stark disconnect between driving distance and the top finishers at Augusta, given the course changes and the course conditions. It may be that none of us quite know what to make of this.
A.G.:
Sorry to be so long in responding. I don't access the site on weekends.
The course changes that you mention are interesting in one regard - they negate the advantage some really long hitters have on certain holes.
Go back to Hazeltine #3 last year and you saw the hole long enough that nobody was taking a go at the green with their second shots. Guys had as little as 70 yards and as much as 140. With a tricky hole location, par was a good score and birdie only possible with very precise short iron play. Contrast that with a "normal" par 5 on Tour where your woods realize the easy birdie.
When I see even the longest hitters swinging a pretty full wedge on #8 on Sunday, it tells me that the days when the longest hitters set up their back 9 run with one last birdie on the "reachable" 550 yard (uphill, I'm told) par 5. The lengthening of holes like these are taking away some of the birdies a long hitter could "count" on as a result of their length.
Looking at #15, I think a similar result has been reached in a different way. It used to be that everyone had to go for the green in two after a good drive, whether they wanted to or not. 225 yards out? A shot you COULD pull off? Well, Tiger is hitting WEDGE from 150. (His actual shot every day in 1997.) Harder to lay up every day, so it "tricks" players into going for it who may otherwise be better laying up.
Taking this tee back has pulled a lot of the longest guys back to that "danger zone" and made it very easy to lay back for guys like Weir, Toms, Maggert, Mattiace, and whoever else you want to throw in there. "I'll lay back every day and let those other guys take their chances at washing their ball."
I don't have data, but it sure looked like it wasn't as easy to reach in two. Couples hit 7i the year he won. Tiger hit four wedges in 1997. Weir hit PW for his third, no?
A solid wedge player like Weir must love it when the set-up encourages more wedges. My wedge against your greenside chip isn't as good of a proposition for him as my wedge against your wedge.