[David_Tepper]

Lou -

This may help regarding the 14-day quarantine:

https://www.afar.com/magazine/travel-to-the-uk-will-soon-require-a-quarantine

I do not know if, upon landing at Heathrow or Gatwick, you will be able to then get on a plane to fly elsewhere in the U.K. to a location begin your 14-day quarantine.


DT 

[Peter Pallotta]

Another factor, possibly (?)
Not the restrictions on air travel but the cost of air travel.
In the coming months (and years?) can the cost of playing there be separated from the cost of getting there?
Airlines may be flying planes at 'half capacity' for a while, and with all but essential business travel down they won't have the profit margins on first-business class seats....so won't they have to make up the revenue somehow, ie via much higher per-ticket prices?

It strikes me that, ironically, a 'day of reckoning' may actually be forestalled by the pandemic, i.e. that the top courses might as well keep their fees high, and even raise them -- because (if there is any truth/likelihood in the above ), those few who can afford the flights can well afford the fees

[David_Tepper]

Peter P. -

You have a good point. The low cost airlines (EasyJet, Ryan Air, Norwegian) rely on keeping their planes full to make a profit. If some form of "social distancing" (keeping every other or every third seat empty) becomes a standard part of air travel, that is going to make it very tough for those airlines to stay in business.

On the other hand, if oil sells for $20-$25 a barrel for an extending period, that will give the airlines some breathing room.

DT

[Sean_A]

I don't think there will be a day of reckoning Pietro. There has always been people with money who want to spend it, these days it seems more than ever. If people are willing to fly to remote places across the world to play, GB&I is nothing to contemplate. About the only thing I can see stopping this sort of travel is the idea of unsustainability. The amount of resources and energy spent (not to mention pollution) to travel over an ocean to play sport is a bit bonkers when you get down to it. When the idea of sustainability is really understood in totality, maybe, just maybe, the day of reckoning will come in more ways than one. The likes of me will have fallen off the twig by then.

Ciao

[Tony_Muldoon]

Interesting that Troon was the lowest %tage rise on the table at 108%. Obviously if you were the highest and you're not now, the maths are simple. But why has it in effect fallen from grace, with Sean saying it was once the most expensive? Tom Doak and others have pointed to the change from a multitude of Golf Journalism to a surfeit of Golf Photography during this period.   Troon is not an easy course to capture in a lens and is perhaps therefore less alluring to the modern guy planning trips, when so many images are available for free on the internet?

Castle Stuart and Kingsbarns have certainly done well with their visual approach.

One other thing. for most of us our memories are as influenced by the captured image we see BEFORE we get to the course as what we see when we get there.  I.e. the memorability of a course is to a large extent predetermined. I can recall walking forward between the two Dunes on RCD's 9th, and thinking wow this is better than any image - I was primed. It's those memories that we pass on to others and this helps determine which courses are must plays. In another field the great Richard Rogers used to say that the audience came out of a show humming the great tunes they went in humming! i.e. the ones they knew BEFORE they saw it. Most people are just to busy to learn a new tune or form a lasting impression from a single exposure.


Final comment I was surprised that the cumulative total of inflation in the UK during those 20 years was 63%!
It makes premium course inflation seem slightly less harsh.

[David_Tepper]

About the only thing I can see stopping this sort of travel is the idea of unsustainability.


What if the future of flying is “as enjoyable as open-heart surgery?”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-15/airports-prepare-plexiglass-masks-and-sanitizer-as-they-reopen?srnd=premium
 

[Wayne_Kozun]

And that didn't have the arrivals portion.  Check out this thread for the process for arriving in HK.


https://twitter.com/willripleyCNN/status/1261131205841350656

[Ulrich Mayring]

Greenfees have risen all over the place, not just for high end venues or tourist attractions. I would estimate almost 50% across the board over the last decade. Again, there are exceptions, but I think membership fees have on average risen only very modestly, if at all.

[Michael Whitaker]

Peter P. -

You have a good point. The low cost airlines (EasyJet, Ryan Air, Norwegian) rely on keeping their planes full to make a profit. If some form of "social distancing" (keeping every other or every third seat empty) becomes a standard part of air travel, that is going to make it very tough for those airlines to stay in business.

On the other hand, if oil sells for $20-$25 a barrel for an extending period, that will give the airlines some breathing room.

DT

OT crazy questions... where I live gasoline is selling for $1.299 per gallon. Has there been a similar reduction in the cost of jet fuel? If yes... do the airlines have the ability to "stock up" on this low cost fuel for future use? Also, I wonder if the US government is stockpiling fuel at these cheap rates?

[David_Tepper]

Also, I wonder if the US government is stockpiling fuel at these cheap rates?

where I live gasoline is selling for $1.299 per gallon. Has there been a similar reduction in the cost of jet fuel?

Mike -

In answer to your questions:

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/13/trump-to-fill-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-to-the-very-top


Per this table, jet fuel is 65% cheaper than it was a year ago:

https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/


DT

[Michael Whitaker]

Per this table, jet fuel is 65% cheaper than it was a year ago:

https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/

And, that is nearly 14% more expensive than last month!

[MClutterbuck]

No doubt the weak British Pound vs. the U.S.$ since 2016 has softened the blow of rising Visitor green fees for Americans playing golf in the U.K. Here is a graph & table showing the exchange rate over the past 30-40 years:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

The exchange rate for 2004 thru 2008 averaged $1.86 per Pound. From 2016 thru 2019, it averaged $1.31 per Pound.

A 100 Pound green in 2006 was roughly $186. Today a 200 Pound green is $246, not that big an increase (32%) over a 14-15 year period.

David is thinking in the right direction here, but as an economist, I will go further. The weak Pound has not softened the blow, in fact it is the major and direct cause of increased green fees denominated in Pounds.


Golf green fees are tradable goods. There is a world market for golf green fees and demand from all over the world for UK green fees. In fact, green fees are more tradable today that in 2000 due Internet and cheaper travel (this adds to the increase).


Tradable goods have their prices reflected at the international price, normally expressed in US Dollars, time the exchange rate, minus any import taxes or other costs to trade, not applicable in this case.

Exchange rate in 2000 $1.65 per Pound, today $1.25 per Pound. Average prices expressed in US Dollars therefore are $145 for 2000 and $301 for 2020. However, there has been 53.3 % inflation in US Dollars since 2000.


Adjusted for inflation, the 2000 average price is $223 compared to $301 today. This is just a 35% increase in 21 years.

I argue the average club on the list has improved its course, its club house and its customer service to warrant an increase in the prices (supply shift), plus travel costs and fulfillment costs via Internet have decreased significantly so as to increase demand (demand shift) explaining the 35% real increase in Dollar terms.

Also, given personal experience, I dont see any decrease for 2021/2022 unless the Pound gets significantly stronger.

[Jeff Schley]

Peter P. -

You have a good point. The low cost airlines (EasyJet, Ryan Air, Norwegian) rely on keeping their planes full to make a profit. If some form of "social distancing" (keeping every other or every third seat empty) becomes a standard part of air travel, that is going to make it very tough for those airlines to stay in business.

On the other hand, if oil sells for $20-$25 a barrel for an extending period, that will give the airlines some breathing room.

DT

OT crazy questions... where I live gasoline is selling for $1.299 per gallon. Has there been a similar reduction in the cost of jet fuel? If yes... do the airlines have the ability to "stock up" on this low cost fuel for future use? Also, I wonder if the US government is stockpiling fuel at these cheap rates?

It is called futures or options and airlines have algorithms to hedge themselves about this fluctuations, some better than others. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not refined products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel etc. It is unrefined crude oil and can be refined as needed.  Also in April the President allowed some of the SPR available for private leasing to US oil companies, although not a huge amount for the prolonged drought we are having.  Which is why the oil price plummeted a few weeks ago to negative because those futures projected that there would be no storage for it and thus be costly to store for the buyer with no demand.

[Jeff Schley]

Also, given personal experience, I dont see any decrease for 2021/2022 unless the Pound gets significantly stronger.

We are looking at a prolonged strong dollar IMO as governments and business owners need significant foreign reserves to weather this storm and that means buying dollars. There is going to be a liquidity crunch and buying sooner rather than later is prudent. There are negatives to a strong dollar outside of an individual traveler buying more for their money. For example, exports are cheaper, companies will open plants abroad losing jobs overseas, in addition to less attractive market for tourists due to higher cost. There won't be much travel internationally the rest of this year most likely and strong government intervention will be needed around the world.

[Wayne_Kozun]

Peter P. -

You have a good point. The low cost airlines (EasyJet, Ryan Air, Norwegian) rely on keeping their planes full to make a profit. If some form of "social distancing" (keeping every other or every third seat empty) becomes a standard part of air travel, that is going to make it very tough for those airlines to stay in business.

On the other hand, if oil sells for $20-$25 a barrel for an extending period, that will give the airlines some breathing room.

DT

OT crazy questions... where I live gasoline is selling for $1.299 per gallon. Has there been a similar reduction in the cost of jet fuel? If yes... do the airlines have the ability to "stock up" on this low cost fuel for future use? Also, I wonder if the US government is stockpiling fuel at these cheap rates?

It is called futures or options and airlines have algorithms to hedge themselves about this fluctuations, some better than others. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not refined products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel etc. It is unrefined crude oil and can be refined as needed.  Also in April the President allowed some of the SPR available for private leasing to US oil companies, although not a huge amount for the prolonged drought we are having.  Which is why the oil price plummeted a few weeks ago to negative because those futures projected that there would be no storage for it and thus be costly to store for the buyer with no demand.

Yes airlines could buy futures or options but buying futures requires posting initial margin and (potentially) maintenance margin.  That uses up cash that many airlines do not have as they are on the verge of bankruptcy.  Alternatively you could buy jet fuel forward contracts but you need decent credit to do that as the dealers, like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, may not be willing to take the credit risk airlines.


There used to be a geographic arb in the forward curve for jet fuel between the US and Europe as the European airlines were often state backed and able to get credit to buy jet fuel forward contracts but the US airlines have generally had lousy credits and often gone bankrupt so they were not able to do forward contracts.  So US forward jet fuel tended to trade cheaper than European.

[Niall C]

About the only thing I can see stopping this sort of travel is the idea of unsustainability.


What if the future of flying is “as enjoyable as open-heart surgery?”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-15/airports-prepare-plexiglass-masks-and-sanitizer-as-they-reopen?srnd=premium

Having done both, I prefer to fly.

Niall

[Niall C]

Interesting that Troon was the lowest %tage rise on the table at 108%. Obviously if you were the highest and you're not now, the maths are simple. But why has it in effect fallen from grace, with Sean saying it was once the most expensive? Tom Doak and others have pointed to the change from a multitude of Golf Journalism to a surfeit of Golf Photography during this period.   Troon is not an easy course to capture in a lens and is perhaps therefore less alluring to the modern guy planning trips, when so many images are available for free on the internet?

Tony

There is probably an element of truth of what you say about eye candy but I'm sure there are a few spots where you could get a great photo of Troon, the Postage Stamp for instance. Indeed thinking about it, Troon maybe doesn't have the iconic shot that is used all the time in the same way that photo of RCD is. Maybe RTGC are missing a trick there ?

However other factors back in the day were that price for playing Troon also included lunch and a game on the Portland. Having experienced it I can testify that the lunch wasn't just a soup and a sandwich. No matter that the Perry Golf crowd played the championship course and then buggered off, the ticket included for lunch and two games of golf and was priced accordingly.

These days I believe you can book just to play the championship so I'm not sure you are comparing like for like. One other factor that might have had a bearing is that with Open courses, the visitor numbers increase significantly just before and for a couple of years after the Open was played there. I don't know if the respective clubs tweaked there green fee accordingly.

Niall 

[Paul Dolton]

It was either 1990 or 1991 when I played Troon.
The fee was £60 ,which as mentioned included a meal and a second round on the Portland course.
I also remember the starter letting us play off the medal tees.

[Tom_Doak]

Interesting that Troon was the lowest %tage rise on the table at 108%. Obviously if you were the highest and you're not now, the maths are simple. But why has it in effect fallen from grace, with Sean saying it was once the most expensive? Tom Doak and others have pointed to the change from a multitude of Golf Journalism to a surfeit of Golf Photography during this period.   Troon is not an easy course to capture in a lens and is perhaps therefore less alluring to the modern guy planning trips, when so many images are available for free on the internet?

Tony

There is probably an element of truth of what you say about eye candy but I'm sure there are a few spots where you could get a great photo of Troon, the Postage Stamp for instance. Indeed thinking about it, Troon maybe doesn't have the iconic shot that is used all the time in the same way that photo of RCD is. Maybe RTGC are missing a trick there ?

I think it's more about other "other factors" such as:


Royal Troon has only hosted The Open once since 2004, so it's a bit out of Americans' minds compared to the old days.


Troon only gets on the itinerary if Turnberry is, too, and the change in ownership at Turnberry has led some people to pass it up due to either the price, or the politics.


In general, I think the west coast of Scotland has been the loser for visitor green fees as more Americans head north, instead.

[Sean_A]

Tom

Ayrshire lacks a bit compared to East Lothian and Fife. There is certainly a wealth of very good golf, but the area doesn't have that cool town to stop in for more than a hit and run trip or leg of a trip.

Ciao

[David Jones]

As has been noted Royal Troon was starting from a higher base compared to many of the other courses in this analysis. They never went out of their way through either pricing or availability to encourage visitors.

In 2004 it was the most expensive green fee in the UK (£185), more expensive than Turnberry and a long way ahead of Kingsbarns. It was also one of the more restrictive with tee times only available for a few hours a week between May and October.

Also, you can forget the 'member for a day' ethos here. This is a members' club where visitors are tolerated at times rather than embraced with open arms.

The Ayrshire coast golf-wise has a lot to offer but  Sean is right in that it lacks a little of the charm, and there are less obvious 'magnets' outside of the golf courses, than a Dornoch, St Andrews or North Berwick.

Lastly, Troon's just not as good as some of the other courses. There are 4 magazines/websites in the UK with producing rankings now and only one has it in their top 20. Tom has it outside of the top 30 in the Confidential Guide. Of course there isn't a strict correlation between cost and quality but there will be some. Fewer people will come away from Troon raving about the course which will have an impact on what they can charge.

One other aside. These rates were all the summer peak green fees. Many of the others on this list offer significant discounts outside of peak but Royal Troon doesn't. I played Muirfield on a sparkling Christmas Eve last year for £100. The course was immaculate and actually more fun for me that in the height of summer as the rough was down. Glorious!

[Ally Mcintosh]

It was either 1990 or 1991 when I played Troon.
The fee was £60 ,which as mentioned included a meal and a second round on the Portland course.
I also remember the starter letting us play off the medal tees.

£60 in 1990/1 was a huge cost.


I played Carnoustie in 1987 for £13 and The Old Course in 1989 for £18.


So to be at 60 just one or two years after must have made it by a distance the most expensive course in Scotland (possible exception Gleneagles). Don’t think Muirfield took visitors at the time.

[Mark Pearce]

One other aside. These rates were all the summer peak green fees. Many of the others on this list offer significant discounts outside of peak but Royal Troon doesn't. I played Muirfield on a sparkling Christmas Eve last year for £100. The course was immaculate and actually more fun for me that in the height of summer as the rough was down. Glorious!

The irony is that most of these courses offer winter or shoulder season rates and most are more fun to play "out of season" when the rough is down.  The fairways are still firm but perhaps not fiery and the greens only a notch slower than in July.  I go away for a couple of days every March with some mates and take advantage of these cheaper rates and it's one of the best trips of the year.

[Sean_A]

It was either 1990 or 1991 when I played Troon.
The fee was £60 ,which as mentioned included a meal and a second round on the Portland course.
I also remember the starter letting us play off the medal tees.

£60 in 1990/1 was a huge cost.


I played Carnoustie in 1987 for £13 and The Old Course in 1989 for £18.


So to be at 60 just one or two years after must have made it by a distance the most expensive course in Scotland (possible exception Gleneagles). Don’t think Muirfield took visitors at the time.

Yes, Troon was noticeably dear...and unfriendly. Felt a bit like being at the McDonald's of upper end golf. It was a very obvious money grab.

Ciao

[Tom_Doak]

Yes, Troon was noticeably dear...and unfriendly. Felt a bit like being at the McDonald's of upper end golf. It was a very obvious money grab.

To be fair, they are all "money grabs".  The difference is that Royal Troon's members would generally prefer not to have a lot of visitors so the members can play whenever they want, so they try to get their money with as many caveats as possible . . . rather like Muirfield, actually.


By contrast, St. Andrews and Carnoustie and North Berwick are municipal courses, and the town's priorities are all about getting people to come and stay in town.

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