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Jon Wiggett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #50 on: May 23, 2020, 03:01:02 PM »

Having listened to a couple of the science boffs about why a 14 day quarantine and not early it does make perfect sense what is happening now. What I do find odd is if as Ben says the second wave is worse than the first and this does seem to be true of other pandemics of the past and knowing how it is spread I wonder how any way can be found to stop its spread short of social isolation. But then how can the economy function in any form with such measures in place.


Will it be a choice between a high death toll especially amongst the elderly or a trashed economy? Though maybe the economy is already trashed and the choice therefore made!

Mark Pearce

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #51 on: May 23, 2020, 05:54:14 PM »
You can moderate the second wave just as you moderate the first, if people understand that there will be a need to bring back restrictions at some point.  Unfortunately neither the UK or US governments appear to be preparing their people for the need to re-introduce restrictions and I fear that when that happens, they won't be followed.
In June I will be riding the first three stages of this year's Tour de France route for charity.  630km (394 miles) in three days, with 7800m (25,600 feet) of climbing for the William Wates Memorial Trust (https://rideleloop.org/the-charity/) which supports underprivileged young people.

Jon Wiggett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #52 on: May 24, 2020, 03:42:08 AM »

Mark,


what I find is odd is that in the early days government talk was all about having waves of lockdown, then easing, then lockdown, etc depending on the death rate. Then this changed to lockdown and not allowing a second wave to occur. Now it seems to be easing lockdown and no discussion on the future. I wonder if the realisation is that the economy as is is more or less gone. As it is, it should be obvious to most that the free market economy model is not able to survive/handle a pandemic.


Time for a rethink maybe!!!

Duncan Cheslett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #53 on: May 24, 2020, 08:40:17 AM »
You can moderate the second wave just as you moderate the first, if people understand that there will be a need to bring back restrictions at some point.  Unfortunately neither the UK or US governments appear to be preparing their people for the need to re-introduce restrictions and I fear that when that happens, they won't be followed.


A second lockdown is both economically and politically impossible.


The shenanigans with Mr Cummings over the last few days has probably killed off any prospect of the public being prepared to endure a return to severe restrictions.


The curtailment of air travel and the quarantining of entrants to the country are easy measures to bring in that do not impact on the lives of the vast majority of people. Nobody NEEDS to fly on a plane.


Further than that, testing and contact tracing together with the continued isolation of the old and vulnerable must be the main strategies to withstand a second wave of infection.


Most of us are just going to have to accept the presence of the virus and get back to as normal a life as possible in order to kick-start the economy. We haven't got the luxury of being able to wait for a vaccine to become universally available.


High end golf destinations are just going to have to restructure their business models to cater for the UK market rather than overseas tourists. Probably for some time to come.



« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 08:45:14 AM by Duncan Cheslett »

David Davis

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #54 on: May 24, 2020, 09:06:22 AM »
This whole thing has really become such a mess, nearly all media seems very unreliable to a degree and has no problem doing 180's with respect to what they preach today, when it's proven wrong tomorrow. If we could rely on the science of data reporting (which even that I question) then as of today the world has 5.3 million reported infected (a number which must be small compared to the actual numbers consider the inability to test everyone) and 342k deaths. Which is a huge amount so I don't want to diminish this - especially given my wife and I have already lost 1 healthy family member to Corona (her brother of 51). However, those numbers if even remotely + - 5-10% accurate nowhere near justify governmental actions being taken, pretty much anywhere except arguably Sweden. .06% mortality rate doesn't seem enough to ground entire industries to a halt in my mind, even given my personal experience so far which is not a good one.


As already stated by others social distancing and protecting the more vulnerable seems a far better option.


Hard to compare apples and oranges but just as an example - 1.35 million people died from automobile accidents in 2016, totally random but just food for thought.


Sweden's example pretty much offers a strong counter argument for reducing the curve that would of over-run our hospitals.


Anyway my ramblings on this but I really don't understand the 14 day quarantine either this late in the game. Beginning of March, yes I would of gone for that, but June? To me it's ridiculous.




Sharing the greatest experiences in golf.

IG: @top100golftraveler
www.lockharttravelclub.com

Jon Wiggett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #55 on: May 24, 2020, 01:07:38 PM »
You can moderate the second wave just as you moderate the first, if people understand that there will be a need to bring back restrictions at some point.  Unfortunately neither the UK or US governments appear to be preparing their people for the need to re-introduce restrictions and I fear that when that happens, they won't be followed.


A second lockdown is both economically and politically impossible.


The shenanigans with Mr Cummings over the last few days has probably killed off any prospect of the public being prepared to endure a return to severe restrictions.


The curtailment of air travel and the quarantining of entrants to the country are easy measures to bring in that do not impact on the lives of the vast majority of people. Nobody NEEDS to fly on a plane.


Further than that, testing and contact tracing together with the continued isolation of the old and vulnerable must be the main strategies to withstand a second wave of infection.


Most of us are just going to have to accept the presence of the virus and get back to as normal a life as possible in order to kick-start the economy. We haven't got the luxury of being able to wait for a vaccine to become universally available.


High end golf destinations are just going to have to restructure their business models to cater for the UK market rather than overseas tourists. Probably for some time to come.



I would agree wholeheartedly with your post Duncan except the part about a second lockdown. You are correct that Cummings has made the guidelines useless and he must go though the PM is still backing him (which might also be a mistake but nothing new there  ::) ). If however people are given financial security unlike this time than they will stay at home as most people know someone in danger well enough to be personally concerned for their wellbeing.


What is a shame is the new leader of the opposition seems to be carrying on with the same dismal politics. It is a sad reflection on the quality of British politics but I am struggling to find anyone who might realistically become PM who is able to do the job  :'(

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +2/-1
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #56 on: May 24, 2020, 01:13:55 PM »

Will it be a choice between a high death toll especially amongst the elderly or a trashed economy? Though maybe the economy is already trashed and the choice therefore made!


Why not both?


Jon Wiggett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #57 on: May 24, 2020, 01:56:23 PM »

Will it be a choice between a high death toll especially amongst the elderly or a trashed economy? Though maybe the economy is already trashed and the choice therefore made!


Why not both?



Tom,


a high death toll and a trashed economy would be a hard sell so I assume you are meaning something else but not sure what.

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #58 on: May 24, 2020, 02:10:47 PM »
One of our American Heroes John Glenn was joined by his wife in heaven today. She was 100 yrs old.


https://www.latimes.com/obituaries/story/2020-05-20/annie-glenn-john-glenn-astronaut-speech-disorder-dies
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 02:13:10 PM by John Kavanaugh »

David Harshbarger

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #59 on: May 24, 2020, 06:55:34 PM »
From my readings:


Masks make a big difference in transmission


Outdoor air movement dispersed virus quickly


The more you put into your exhalations the more virus you shed:  nose breathing < mouth breathing < talking < loud talking < singing < hearty cheering


Surface transmission is limited except for high risk areas like public restrooms.


Overall risk is correlated with time of exposure


Face coverings should become expected and socially enforced....people should be encouraged to be outside....if not wearing a covering avoid people talking loudly in your face....don’t go or stay in enclosed public spaces without a mask



The trouble with modern equipment and distance—and I don't see anyone pointing this out—is that it robs from the player's experience. - Mickey Wright

Tom Birkert

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #60 on: May 25, 2020, 08:59:03 AM »
In the list of stupid and criminal things our government have done, this might just be the most stupid.


There will be no second wave. There is no more risk (assuming general OK health) to anyone under 65 than there normally is in every day life. That so many people have been brainwashed by politicians, a hysterical media and atrocious scientific models is a tragedy that is killing tens of thousands of people through missed cancer scans, heart disease, suicide, domestic violence and poverty.


The virus has been circulating since at least November 2019. As soon as it originated, it would have been in London a week or so later. It's an infecitous disease, London is a global travel hub, and there are lots of Chinese students here. It can't not have been.


We can see this in the data. There was a huge spike in "flu" hospitalisations at the end of November (10x the previous year) which resulted in a spike of deaths at the end of 2019. This was as the virus worked its way through the generally younger, healthier working population.


As it continued to spread silently, it didn't have much of an impact, simply because it's a very targeted disease. It's incredibly dangerous to elderly people with existing conditions. To everyone else the risk is minuscule. All we had to do was stop it getting into care homes.


Enter the scientists with their make believe model world. Enter the media with scenes of apocalypse from Italy (ignoring the fact the Italians had done exactly the opposite of what was needed - protect the elderly). The politicians panicked, and had to be seen to "do" something.


Unfortunately, what they did was criminal. The model - already discredited due to previous predictions wrong by orders of magnitude - predicted the NHS would be overwhelmed. Capacity was needed. SO THEY SENT INFECTED PEOPLE INTO CARE HOMES. That's corporate manslaughter and the scientists and politicians responsible belong in jail. That's why so many people died.


The NHS has been working at well under normal capacity. That's because the model was rubbish.


The lockdown started after the virus had passed it peak. It made no difference. All it's done is cause extra deaths to those too scared to seek medical treatment (cancer referals down by 70%, A&E attendance down by 50%) and made millions unemployed, though most of them don't realise it yet due to being paid to have a long holiday due to government subsidies.


My golf club is fortunate. We will survive. Many others won't. And small businesses up and down the land will go bust. Kids losing out on education that will severely hamper their life chances.


We now have a public that have been scared of their shadow due to a bogeyman that the vast majority wouldn't even know they've had it, for it is so mild. Protect the elderly and the vulnerable. That's all we had to do. Look at countries with low death rates. They kept it out of care homes. Same in the US - states that kept it out of care homes have low death rates (hello Mr Cuomo, you belong in jail too).


I would jump on a plane tomorrow if I could to play golf anywhere. I am not scared. I hugely resent my freedom being taken from me. It's disgusting.




Colin Macqueen

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #61 on: May 25, 2020, 09:29:10 AM »
Tom,


"To everyone else the risk is minuscule."


Tell that to Boris then! I don't think so!


Colin
"Golf, thou art a gentle sprite, I owe thee much"
The Hielander

Jeff Schley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #62 on: May 25, 2020, 11:47:27 AM »

As it continued to spread silently, it didn't have much of an impact, simply because it's a very targeted disease. It's incredibly dangerous to elderly people with existing conditions. To everyone else the risk is minuscule. All we had to do was stop it getting into care homes.

We now have a public that have been scared of their shadow due to a bogeyman that the vast majority wouldn't even know they've had it, for it is so mild. Protect the elderly and the vulnerable. That's all we had to do. Look at countries with low death rates. They kept it out of care homes. Same in the US - states that kept it out of care homes have low death rates (hello Mr Cuomo, you belong in jail too).

Tom..... there are over 40 million seniors in the USA and how do you protect the elderly and vulnerable? While we all wish life was back to normal, that is being ignorant to the threat that exists for minimum of 40 million people and many more younger with existing conditions. I do think it will take more creativity to take measures while opening, I think it is irresponsible at best and outright selfish malice at worst to see these people without masks / packing locations and not following the guidelines due to lack of police being able to enforce such guidelines.
I respectively disagree that any measures taken for the public good is disgusting.
"To give anything less than your best, is to sacrifice your gifts."
- Steve Prefontaine

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #63 on: May 25, 2020, 11:55:49 AM »
Is the death rate in Asia lower because they take their elderly into their homes?
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 11:57:56 AM by John Kavanaugh »

Mark Mammel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #64 on: May 25, 2020, 12:19:43 PM »
A recent article in the NY Times tried to quantify the risk from coronavirus in terms of micromorts. 1 micromort is a 1/1,000,000 chance of dying, which the author says is the basic risk everyone faces each day. Your risk from coronavirus can be put onto these terms using the available data, which is of course limited by its accuracy. My takeaway is that risk is dependent on  where you live and how old you are- but for most, it will be relatively low. As a retired MD I like to use the science to quantify the risk to make decisions. Unfortunately, since many refuse to accept the validity of any data collected by the government, it is neither safe nor desirable to allow each individual to decide the level of risk they will endure, since their decision affects everyone else's safety. So we are stuck with politicians, sometimes craven, to do it for us. Clearly what is right for New York makes no sense for South Dakota or Montana.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-risk-of-covid-19-in-perspective.html?searchResultPosition=1

So much golf to play, so little time....

Mark

Mark Pearce

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #65 on: May 25, 2020, 12:37:26 PM »
In the list of stupid and criminal things our government have done, this might just be the most stupid.


There will be no second wave. There is no more risk (assuming general OK health) to anyone under 65 than there normally is in every day life. That so many people have been brainwashed by politicians, a hysterical media and atrocious scientific models is a tragedy that is killing tens of thousands of people through missed cancer scans, heart disease, suicide, domestic violence and poverty.


The virus has been circulating since at least November 2019. As soon as it originated, it would have been in London a week or so later. It's an infecitous disease, London is a global travel hub, and there are lots of Chinese students here. It can't not have been.


We can see this in the data. There was a huge spike in "flu" hospitalisations at the end of November (10x the previous year) which resulted in a spike of deaths at the end of 2019. This was as the virus worked its way through the generally younger, healthier working population.


As it continued to spread silently, it didn't have much of an impact, simply because it's a very targeted disease. It's incredibly dangerous to elderly people with existing conditions. To everyone else the risk is minuscule. All we had to do was stop it getting into care homes.


Enter the scientists with their make believe model world. Enter the media with scenes of apocalypse from Italy (ignoring the fact the Italians had done exactly the opposite of what was needed - protect the elderly). The politicians panicked, and had to be seen to "do" something.


Unfortunately, what they did was criminal. The model - already discredited due to previous predictions wrong by orders of magnitude - predicted the NHS would be overwhelmed. Capacity was needed. SO THEY SENT INFECTED PEOPLE INTO CARE HOMES. That's corporate manslaughter and the scientists and politicians responsible belong in jail. That's why so many people died.


The NHS has been working at well under normal capacity. That's because the model was rubbish.


The lockdown started after the virus had passed it peak. It made no difference. All it's done is cause extra deaths to those too scared to seek medical treatment (cancer referals down by 70%, A&E attendance down by 50%) and made millions unemployed, though most of them don't realise it yet due to being paid to have a long holiday due to government subsidies.


My golf club is fortunate. We will survive. Many others won't. And small businesses up and down the land will go bust. Kids losing out on education that will severely hamper their life chances.


We now have a public that have been scared of their shadow due to a bogeyman that the vast majority wouldn't even know they've had it, for it is so mild. Protect the elderly and the vulnerable. That's all we had to do. Look at countries with low death rates. They kept it out of care homes. Same in the US - states that kept it out of care homes have low death rates (hello Mr Cuomo, you belong in jail too).


I would jump on a plane tomorrow if I could to play golf anywhere. I am not scared. I hugely resent my freedom being taken from me. It's disgusting.
It's very difficult to be polite about this post, so I'm just going to ignore it.
In June I will be riding the first three stages of this year's Tour de France route for charity.  630km (394 miles) in three days, with 7800m (25,600 feet) of climbing for the William Wates Memorial Trust (https://rideleloop.org/the-charity/) which supports underprivileged young people.

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #66 on: May 25, 2020, 01:11:52 PM »
Mark,


Excellent choice. Catholic services started today and because it is the thing that dad loves I took him out for the first time since this started. I dropped him off at the door with my wife and before I could take off to park the car a slobbering old fool got in his face asking if he had an extra mask. Nice thing about slobbering old fools is that if they got it they probably would be dead by now. Dad loves that church but I can't promise how long it will be before I blow the whole thing up. We went a half hour early to avoid any crowds at choke points. Funny thing about church is that people arrive at different times but leave at the same time. So at the end I suggested we wait and let everyone clear out. Even this plan wasn't perfect as some young dude came running back in almost knocking dad over for a forgotten trinket.


There are several bright sides to Coved Mass. No singing, no collection and they close off entry when the church is socially distanced full. Now where is that snooze button?

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #67 on: May 25, 2020, 01:16:35 PM »
I suppose we have always known that there is no winning in this trying not to die game.

William_G

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #68 on: May 25, 2020, 06:05:53 PM »
This whole thing has really become such a mess, nearly all media seems very unreliable to a degree and has no problem doing 180's with respect to what they preach today, when it's proven wrong tomorrow. If we could rely on the science of data reporting (which even that I question) then as of today the world has 5.3 million reported infected (a number which must be small compared to the actual numbers consider the inability to test everyone) and 342k deaths. Which is a huge amount so I don't want to diminish this - especially given my wife and I have already lost 1 healthy family member to Corona (her brother of 51). However, those numbers if even remotely + - 5-10% accurate nowhere near justify governmental actions being taken, pretty much anywhere except arguably Sweden. .06% mortality rate doesn't seem enough to ground entire industries to a halt in my mind, even given my personal experience so far which is not a good one.


As already stated by others social distancing and protecting the more vulnerable seems a far better option.


Hard to compare apples and oranges but just as an example - 1.35 million people died from automobile accidents in 2016, totally random but just food for thought.


Sweden's example pretty much offers a strong counter argument for reducing the curve that would of over-run our hospitals.


Anyway my ramblings on this but I really don't understand the 14 day quarantine either this late in the game. Beginning of March, yes I would of gone for that, but June? To me it's ridiculous.


well said
It's all about the golf!

William_G

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #69 on: May 25, 2020, 06:10:50 PM »
I suppose we have always known that there is no winning in this trying not to die game.


no shit, except for those delusionals on here and elsewhere
It's all about the golf!

William_G

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #70 on: May 25, 2020, 06:18:41 PM »
You can moderate the second wave just as you moderate the first, if people understand that there will be a need to bring back restrictions at some point.  Unfortunately neither the UK or US governments appear to be preparing their people for the need to re-introduce restrictions and I fear that when that happens, they won't be followed.


viruses exist now and forever, QED[size=78%] [/size]



"moderate" a viral wave?


was the first "moderated"?


"need" for restrictions based on what data?


"fear", based on what


obviously a wee bit late in the evening for you and possibly a few beverages imbibed


cheers

It's all about the golf!

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #71 on: May 25, 2020, 06:51:26 PM »
William,


In all sincerity what do you think we should do? Where are you located? I have children in LA, DC and Illinois, not to mention an 89 yr old father in Florida. Kind got the country covered.

William_G

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #72 on: May 25, 2020, 09:47:18 PM »
live your lives as you wish
It's all about the golf!

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #73 on: May 25, 2020, 10:06:46 PM »
live your lives as you wish


That’s easy for an essential to say. I don’t think anyone should have been forced out of work.

William_G

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #74 on: May 25, 2020, 11:38:11 PM »
live your lives as you wish


That’s easy for an essential to say. I don’t think anyone should have been forced out of work.
agreed
FUBAR
It's all about the golf!

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