[Scott Warren]

Give all this 30 days and it will look different.

Different as in significantly worse and therefore much clearer?

[Ronald Montesano]

This might have been mentioned, so if it has, consider me a like thinker.


Which golfer will be tournament-ready, for a run of 3-4 fall majors? 2020 would be seen as the year that golf's ruling bodies and clubs betrayed the hard work of previous centuries. The likelihood of a random, rogue winner at any of the 3-4 events would be high. One more reason to scrap it all and prepare for 2021.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

https://covid19.healthdata.org

That site puts the "peak" at about two weeks out for almost everywhere in the U.S.

Granted, that's with current restrictions, etc. in place, but it seems to me that this, plus the ongoing development of treatments, more understanding of the non-symptomatic people who may have already had it, etc. and playing some majors (not all four, maybe just one or two - the Masters and PGA?) may be possible in the late fall.

I'm more interested, though, TBH in the Ryder Cup. Would they play a Ryder Cup with very limited number of spectators? Could they delay it a year, or just push back the entire schedule two years? Would they cancel, and play the next one in Europe?

The PGA has the Presidents Cup, and this isn't quite like the one-year-delay in 2001.

[BHoover]

That model is for the first wave of COVID-19 in the US. With the increasing possibility (perhaps even likelihood) of a second wave in the fall, I will be surprised if there are any sports playing in 2020. I think it’s entirely possible, and again, becoming more likely, there will be no majors (maybe no golf), no baseball, no football, etc. in 2020.


I hope I’m wrong.

[A.G._Crockett]

AG,

Agreed with your last post, and I think Jeff's follow up was a good counter to provide more context.

I just wonder, how much cross over exists between those who regularly watch golf and other sports.  I suspect most golf viewers are hard core like us, and will still tune in, even if it means missing 1 mid season football game.  I mean do people in the south really stay glued to the TV when someone like Alabama is drubbing a mediocre opponent by 35 at the half?  Or worse case scenario TiVo the Sunday pro game and watch it later?!

Either way, unlike Football, I'm guessing golf gets very few casual viewers anyways so it won't if its held in October...or April for that matter.


P.S.  If you want to talk ratings thou, NASCAR dwarfs even football and i'm guessing they run Masters weekend too!

Kalen,

I don't think your NASCAR numbers are correct. 


As best I could find, NASCAR in 2018 averaged less than 6 million viewers per race; Daytona is the only NASCAR race to make the top 50 of televised sports audiences EXCLUDING the NFL and the Olympics, with 9.3 million viewers, well below the final round of the Masters at 13.3 million.  For perspective, both the final round of the Masters AND the Daytona 500 had numbers well below the Kentucky Derby.

To answer your first question last, IMO yes, people in the South will turn to another college football game if the game they are watching turns into a blowout; I can't prove that, but I believe it.  The best data I could find said that college football telecasts averaged nearly 2 million viewers per game, and reached 163 "unique" viewers in 2018, so at a given moment on a fall Saturday, there are far more people watching college football than the numbers the Masters draws for the final round. 


I don't know what football fans, or "casual" sports fans would do on a fall Saturday if the 3rd round of the Masters was on; I do know that the combined weekly viewership of college football just dwarfs The Masters and pretty much everything else in sports television except the NFL.  And it's always worth remembering that in April, the Masters is competing ONLY with subscription MLB, so I think the real question is whether or not the Masters could hang on to whatever casual fans it does draw. 

[A.G._Crockett]

That model is for the first wave of COVID-19 in the US. With the increasing possibility (perhaps even likelihood) of a second wave in the fall, I will be surprised if there are any sports playing in 2020. I think it’s entirely possible, and again, becoming more likely, there will be no majors (maybe no golf), no baseball, no football, etc. in 2020.


I hope I’m wrong.

I agree with you 100%.  I think it is far more likely that vast majority of ALL sports in 2020 will be abandoned than that there are worries about how to fit it all into a compressed schedule.  I just do not see a governing body risking having a new outbreak be traced back to THEIR event when and if we finally get past this first wave.


Americans have underestimated the math of this thing from the beginning.  After what is going to happen here over the next month occurs, much of that will go away, and you just aren't going to see people traveling and staying in rented lodging and either playing or watching sporting events in person.

For that matter, I think we overlook the willingness of the players in ALL of the sports to put themselves at risk by traveling and playing even in empty arenas.   

[Kalen Braley]

AG,

My NASCAR numbers could be a bit stale.  Its been a number of years since I last looked, but as I recall it was far far more popular than I thought.

Either way, the only point I was trying to make in my last post and perhaps I failed to do so...

I suspect most golf viewers are in fact devoted golf fans who would tune in to golf any time of year, and especially so for Majors.  Yes there are no doubt some who would pick mid season football over golf, but for a one-off Masters in the fall I've got to think many would still watch on a one week hiatus, especially so if it was the only event for the rest of year.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

I hope I’m wrong.

I hope you're wrong too. Treatments advance, more people have it and recover from it, etc. We'll see.

[Pete_Pittock]

AG,

My NASCAR numbers could be a bit stale.  Its been a number of years since I last looked, but as I recall it was far far more popular than I thought.

Either way, the only point I was trying to make in my last post and perhaps I failed to do so...

I suspect most golf viewers are in fact devoted golf fans who would tune in to golf any time of year, and especially so for Majors.  Yes there are no doubt some who would pick mid season football over golf, but for a one-off Masters in the fall I've got to think many would still watch on a one week hiatus, especially so if it was the only event for the rest of year.

NASCAR does not compete against The Masters in April, as they are quiet Easter weekend. I watch and occasionally attend NASCAR, the only major conflict would be Talladega, the first week in October. And there is always tape delay, one way or the other. If I had to drop one golf major, it would be the PGA.  With the Olympics out they could move all the Fed Ex events up one week, which could leave time for the cram

[jeffwarne]

Which golfer will be tournament-ready, for a run of 3-4 fall majors? 2020 would be seen as the year that golf's ruling bodies and clubs betrayed the hard work of previous centuries. The likelihood of a random, rogue winner at any of the 3-4 events would be high. One more reason to scrap it all and prepare for 2021.

The guy who shoots the lowest score will win.
pertty sure a rusty Rory or a rusty Koepka can hold their own against a rusty "rogue random" player.
and if they don't good on them.
I'm not suggesting they play 4 majors in 6 weeks, nor that they can or will, but the chance of a "rogue. random" winner couldn't possibly be a good reason not to play 'em.
A lot of good things need to happen for any of this to matter, so I hope this is our biggest worry in the fall.
I for one would selfishly love to see them move the Senior Open to October!

[Tom_Doak]

Normally I would agree, but after seeing them use both courses at Stonewall for the 36-hole final of the Mid Am, I would guess there are at least a couple of people in Far Hills who would be all geeked up to use both 18's at Winged Foot for the Open.  Unless, of course, they are still parking cars on them for the event.  Do they do that anymore?

No, they aren't. Remote shuttle lots within 5 miles and heavy train encouragement with shuttles down the street.  But if there's going to be anything like the normal Open (at any time) at WF, the East course is used for infrastructure (1, 10, 2-4), pavilions hi and lo (7, 11, 12, 16, 18)  and the 9th hole seves as the range.  East course won't be an option, unless it is a spectator-less tournament.

Just bringing this back to the top for VK, after reading that the U.S. Women's Open has been moved to December, and will use both courses there for the first two rounds in order to accommodate the full-sized field.

[Joe Bausch]

That model is for the first wave of COVID-19 in the US. With the increasing possibility (perhaps even likelihood) of a second wave in the fall, I will be surprised if there are any sports playing in 2020. I think it’s entirely possible, and again, becoming more likely, there will be no majors (maybe no golf), no baseball, no football, etc. in 2020.


I hope I’m wrong.

You won’t be, unfortunately, Brian. 😒

[V. Kmetz]

Normally I would agree, but after seeing them use both courses at Stonewall for the 36-hole final of the Mid Am, I would guess there are at least a couple of people in Far Hills who would be all geeked up to use both 18's at Winged Foot for the Open.  Unless, of course, they are still parking cars on them for the event.  Do they do that anymore?

No, they aren't. Remote shuttle lots within 5 miles and heavy train encouragement with shuttles down the street.  But if there's going to be anything like the normal Open (at any time) at WF, the East course is used for infrastructure (1, 10, 2-4), pavilions hi and lo (7, 11, 12, 16, 18)  and the 9th hole seves as the range.  East course won't be an option, unless it is a spectator-less tournament.

Just bringing this back to the top for VK, after reading that the U.S. Women's Open has been moved to December, and will use both courses there for the first two rounds in order to accommodate the full-sized field.

I don't know how they'd ever do it at WF, but as I said I would love to be the guy to set the East up (tees and pins). But if you were following up on just the concept itself (doubling up at a venue that can do so), then yes, this is proof positive the idea exists in the realm as an attractive choice, for a venue so positioned.


I wonder aloud if there is a postponement and not cancellation, what is the last autumn(?) date that can be planned before the WF venue has to be moved elsewhere (for climate, daylight, etc considerations)? And at what point, if you're playing a US Open safely in November, at a location 1500 miles from the planned course, with people largely safe but still scared...at what point is that just not worth it...

[Edward Glidewell]

That model is for the first wave of COVID-19 in the US. With the increasing possibility (perhaps even likelihood) of a second wave in the fall, I will be surprised if there are any sports playing in 2020. I think it’s entirely possible, and again, becoming more likely, there will be no majors (maybe no golf), no baseball, no football, etc. in 2020.


I hope I’m wrong.

You won’t be, unfortunately, Brian. 😒

I'd be surprised if the NFL doesn't play, unless the government mandates it or the players refuse. Teams/owners make the vast majority of their money from the TV contracts, so they likely wouldn't care if they had to play in empty stadiums with no fans.

[Mike Bodo]

I'd be surprised if the NFL doesn't play, unless the government mandates it or the players refuse. Teams/owners make the vast majority of their money from the TV contracts, so they likely wouldn't care if they had to play in empty stadiums with no fans.

The same can be said for just about all of the major U.S. sports and leagues. The majority of revenue comes from television contracts and what they get from parking, ticket, concession and merchandise sales is gravy. It's bonus money to the owners. The NFL, NBA and MLB owners will make money regardless if fans are in the seats. The NHL not so much, as they have the lowest paying TV contracts. NHL franchise owners are more dependent on having butts in the seats than the other major North American sports.


The PGA Tour is a mystery to me because of the different factions involved in putting on an event. For starters, you have the host golf club that needs to get something monetarily speaking for putting on the event. Are they completely reliant on ticket, parking and concession sales to cover their costs or do they receive a portion of the TV, sponsorship and merchandise money? Speaking of sponsors, what cut or percentage of revenue does a title sponsor receive for putting up the prize money for a PGA Tour event, if any? With the PGA Tour being a non-profit organization, what percentage of the revenue from the TV contracts they negotiate go to them and does any of that money go to the host club or title sponsor to cover their costs? Also, who gets what on merchandise sales and how is that revenue split between the various parties and charities?


I'm purely speculating, but unless the various network TV contracts in place are rich, I can't see how the PGA Tour, LPGA Tour, USGA (U.S. Open/U.S. Amateur) and the PGA of America (PGA Championship) can turn a profit and survive without a sufficient amount of spectators in attendance, not to mention corporate hospitality commitments. I'm sure there are those amongst our group that have intimate knowledge of how revenue sharing on the PGA Tour works and would know if the tour could survive on just TV and sponsorship dollars alone. The big loser in this to me outside of the fans are the local charities the PGA Tour donates money to, as I have to believe a big percentage of that revenue comes from ticket, concession and merchandise sales.


The Masters is an entity unto itself. I suspect the ANGC would survive just fine without a single spectator on the course to watch the event, as they have a pretty rich TV contract in addition to a lot of sponsorship money. Thoughts?

[V. Kmetz]

That model is for the first wave of COVID-19 in the US. With the increasing possibility (perhaps even likelihood) of a second wave in the fall, I will be surprised if there are any sports playing in 2020. I think it’s entirely possible, and again, becoming more likely, there will be no majors (maybe no golf), no baseball, no football, etc. in 2020.

I hope I’m wrong.

You won’t be, unfortunately, Brian. 😒

I'd be surprised if the NFL doesn't play, unless the government mandates it or the players refuse. Teams/owners make the vast majority of their money from the TV contracts, so they likely wouldn't care if they had to play in empty stadiums with no fans.

Nothing to do but contribute to speculatory threads anyway... so for facts'-sake, each of the 32 NFL teams received 255 million from the total (4 Networks/SAT) "TV" package per year. That has been escalating (was 233 million two years ago) over the life of the contract which is near conclusion, (but is a renewal cinch to mimic this one, with the CBA signed and labor peace mostly assured).


That figure (some 55 million in excess of the current salary cap) is before the gate/parking/concessions of 10 home games (2 pre/8 reg), and any playoffs...as well as the anuual merch licensing/local media/advertising revenues both inside the stadium and outside... oh yes...if you've built a stadium in the last 20 or so years (with or without local tax monies/infrastructire sweetners) you've been collecting a PSL on each seat... I don't know how it is in Denver, but in MetLife the PSLs intitially ran from $20,000 near the field, to $1000 for a seat that's so far away it's a 21 inch b/w....that's on top of the actual price of the ticket which ranged from $700 to $105 for those nosebleeds... there's 75,000 seats in these stadiums.


What were we talking about? The Tour...the majors worry/notworry about this?

[Pete_Pittock]

it is being reported that the PGA Tour is expected to announce their revised tournament schedule tomorrow.  PGA Championship at Harding Park Aug 6-9. Guessing they have been in touch with ANGC, R&A.

[Tom_Doak]

it is being reported that the PGA Tour is expected to announce their revised tournament schedule tomorrow.  PGA Championship at Harding Park Aug 6-9. Guessing they have been in touch with ANGC, R&A.

I sincerely hope it works out for them.


Hopefully by November I will feel safe enough to attend an event, and so will lots of others.  I wouldn't bet money on it right now, though.

[Pete_Pittock]

I was hoping for The Loop in mid-September.
From a players' standpoint I would like to see all points systems frozen until next year for the week of the Players.  Events until then would be for purse only. Add about 10 spots to the WGC events to compensate players just below the qualifying point. Change the FedEx, in that the first event would be full field (144), 2nd (72), 3rd (36) finals (18). So in mid March players can go back playing in their same positions and this year never happened. 

[BHoover]

The Open has officially been canceled for 2020. Royal St. George’s will host the event in 2021, and TOC will host in 2022.


Yes, 2020 sucks.

[John Kavanaugh]

The Open has officially been canceled for 2020. Royal St. George’s will host the event in 2021, and TOC will host in 2022.


Yes, 2020 sucks.

There goes donating back your future winnings. It was a noble gesture.

[John Kavanaugh]

I personally consider seeing the powers behind golf making the first best good choices in my lifetime a very good thing.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

Masters tentatively scheduled for November 9-15. ANWA canceled.

[Tom_Doak]

I personally consider seeing the powers behind golf making the first best good choices in my lifetime a very good thing.

Did you speak too soon?

[John Kavanaugh]

I personally consider seeing the powers behind golf making the first best good choices in my lifetime a very good thing.

Did you speak too soon?

Almost always.

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