[Sven Nilsen]

He didn't say...are the caddies still being payed cash?

John:


I don't know anywhere where caddies are currently working.  We certainly aren't at Bandon, which is shut down to at least April 30.


If you know anywhere where they are being used, please let me know.  I'd love to know how they're dealing with this.


Sven

[Mike Bodo]

John:


I don't know anywhere where caddies are currently working.  We certainly aren't at Bandon, which is shut down to at least April 30.


If you know anywhere where they are being used, please let me know.  I'd love to know how they're dealing with this.


Sven

Sven, in the link to the article I posted the author mentioned using a caddie at Streamsong, not for carrying his or any other group members bag but for logistics (where to hit certain shots, reading greens, etc.).

[John Kavanaugh]

It's hard to describe how sad this makes me. I consider Kyle Harris a friend and because because of Streamsong's participation in this article which has put my family at unnecessary risk I will no longer consider it an option when choosing where to play. My last round on the Blue was indeed epic. To the point I may have described it as the most perfectly conditioned course for golf I had ever played. I should have known that day was too good to be true.


I imagine that they are secretly softening the 7th green and that would have ruined any return trip as it may have been.


On a happy note WP9 is now on my list.

[Sven Nilsen]

Mike:


Thanks for the update.  That is the only major caddie program I am aware of that is still operating.


As we've discussed out here, with so much uncertainty caddying may look very differently going forward.  We're trying to get ahead of the curve on this for when we do reopen.


Sven

[Mike Bodo]

Mike:


Thanks for the update.  That is the only major caddie program I am aware of that is still operating.


As we've discussed out here, with so much uncertainty caddying may look very differently going forward.  We're trying to get ahead of the curve on this for when we do reopen.


Sven

Yeah, even if I played a course that had caddies available I would not dare put one at risk. It's just not worth it. It's bad enough I am putting myself at risk. Why potentially endanger someone else unnecessarily? I think I would survive not having any guidance on tees, fairways or greens at a course I am totally unfamiliar with rather than put someone in harms way for the privilege of potentially having a lower score as result of experienced advice.

[John Kavanaugh]

Exposure works both ways exponentially.

[Tim Martin]

It's hard to describe how sad this makes me. I consider Kyle Harris a friend and because because of Streamsong's participation in this article which has put my family at unnecessary risk I will no longer consider it an option when choosing where to play. My last round on the Blue was indeed epic. To the point I may have described it as the most perfectly conditioned course for golf I had ever played. I should have known that day was too good to be true.


I imagine that they are secretly softening the 7th green and that would have ruined any return trip as it may have been.


On a happy note WP9 is now on my list.

I read the article and have a few questions. At SS are the caddies driving carts with players bags? Assuming there are four players in many groups are two bags loaded on each cart? I can’t imagine that if you are carrying your own clubs you need a forecaddie. If there are no rakes and only a player can handle their own clubs what purpose does the caddie serve other than reading putts? Are they going ahead on certain holes to scout tee shots? What am I missing?

[John Kavanaugh]

If you had never played the black a guide would come in handy.

[Tim Martin]

If you had never played the black a guide would come in handy.

I have played the black and had a great caddie. He was a retired NYC cop from Staten Island and was fine company as the other player whose bag he had bailed out after nine holes due to the heat. I guess they want to stick to the model as close as they can during this thing.

[Pete_Pittock]

I thought we tried to put a wooden stake through this thread's heart a week ago.  I assume the 335,000 infections is an accurate number. But that number is derived from tests. We have tested less than 2 million out of a population of 340 million. I would posit that there are a lot of non-diagnosed cases that we could come in contact with, of which we need be aware.

If the US is at 1/1000 diagnosed cases (I guess half that) at what point does air travel to a golf vacation become an unacceptable exposure risk . Consider plane capacity, multiple legs, TSA checkpoints, crowds at gates and check-in.  My guess is 1/250 would mean you are more likely than not to be infected. But for safety sake, I think we are already there.


What about buddy trips?


In short, I believe golf resorts are going to have, or already have, a severe problem.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

In short, I believe golf resorts are going to have, or already have, a severe problem.

Big if here, but IF the mortality rate drops below maybe 1% (especially if that includes people with co-morbidities or severe asthma, and all these other things that unfortunately boost one's chances of death), and IF the treatment for people (maybe hydrochloroquine, maybe something else) is fairly effective… Everyone will be different, but in general, I can see it not being a "severe problem."

More widespread testing could change the equations a bit, too.

P.S. Some places might have some specials, and some guys or gals who might have felt a certain trip was just out of their price range might take those places up on it, too.

[Bryan Izatt]

Another number to consider.  My province is now reporting the number of deaths and the number of resolved cases.  Resolved cases are ones where the person tested positive, has recovered, and now tested negative.  Here in my province, as of today, the mortality rate is around 7%.  The sample size is still relatively small.  The data may be questionable.  According to Johns Hopkins world-wide numbers the world mortality rate using this approach is around 20%.  This seems to be a serious killer virus and it appears to be easily transmissible.  Something to consider if you decide to play a round or even go out for groceries.


This is the most significant event of my life-time, and I'm older than most of you.  Why would it not be a topic of discussion here?  GCA does not live in a bubble divorced from real world events. 

[Erik J. Barzeski]

According to Johns Hopkins world-wide numbers the world mortality rate using this approach is around 20%.

I don't know where you saw that number:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
I've seen low single digit numbers pretty commonly, like 1-2%, and that's without truly knowing how many people were infected but had mild to no symptoms, many of whom had it and already recovered. And much of that 1-2% is comprised of people with complicating factors (liver disease, lung disease, etc.).

The UK doesn't look great here:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
(That site just added other countries to the graphs.)

Hospital Bed Shortage:
US: 36,000
UK: 85,000

ICU Bed Shortage:
US: 16,000
UK: 24,000

Population:
US: 330,000,000
UK: 66,000,000

PA looks to be doing "okay":
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/pennsylvania

[Jon Wiggett]

No the UK doesn't look great but then lets see what actually happens before we judge shall we Erik 

[Kalen Braley]

No the UK doesn't look great but then lets see what actually happens before we judge shall we Erik 

Jon,


Its all good here, the US is clearly #1, despite being woefully under reported in both number of cases and deaths due to Covid-19.  Looking at today's data, the US has now had as many cases as the next 3 highest countries combined...

[Bryan Izatt]

Eric,


Look at the the John's Hopkins dashboard site below. The right hand panel has the world-wide deaths and recoveries and do the math.  Of course, the numbers are only as good as the sources and I suspect that all numbers are suspect at this point and probably will be for awhile.  GIGO.


My point was that comparing deaths to confirmed cases probably under-represents the mortality rate since some portion of active confirmed cases will lead to deaths.


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Erik J. Barzeski]

No the UK doesn't look great but then lets see what actually happens before we judge shall we Erik 

I can't speak for others, I didn't judge anything. I'm just sharing the data. This stuff is all just data, and it's interesting from a scientific perspective, as countries have handled things differently, with different population densities, etc.

The UK numbers, in comparison, are objectively "bad." But, someone told me elsewhere that the UK numbers for hospital beds, etc. aren't right, so maybe he's right, and the situation is better than the numbers. Hopefully that site updates with better numbers if he's correct.

Look at the the John's Hopkins dashboard site below. The right hand panel has the world-wide deaths and recoveries and do the math.  Of course, the numbers are only as good as the sources and I suspect that all numbers are suspect at this point and probably will be for awhile. GIGO.My point was that comparing deaths to confirmed cases probably under-represents the mortality rate since some portion of active confirmed cases will lead to deaths.https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Bryan, I get what you're saying that some of the confirmed cases will die, but you can't reasonably get to 20% doing that. Especially not when you consider that a bunch of people have "recovered" and aren't even tallied as having had the virus at all. Millions of people may have had this virus with mild to moderate symptoms and not even been counted.

20% is a HUGE stretch, when all the other estimates have it in the low single digits.

[Greg Clark]

Swine Flu infected approx 60 million in the US, killing 12,500, a .02% death rate.

Covid-19 infections to date in the US is 335,000 with 9,500 deaths, a 2.86% death rate. 

Its a significantly worse scenario, currently at 136X the death rate of Swine Flu.

Except this is comparing an apple to an orange.  The CDC came up with a multiplier to estimate the total number of cases and deaths related to H1N1 (Swine Flu) a few years after the epidemic ended for their final total.  In essence an estimate of underreported cases of tens of millions in their view.  They came up with a range of 43.3 - 89.3M cases and 8,868 - 18,306 deaths.  60.8M cases and 12,469 deaths is their best estimate and the oft quoted numbers.


The CDC also does this estimate/multiplier for annual flu.  For example current positive tests for 2019/20 flu cases reported to the CDC is roughly 290K.  However, the CDC estimates that between 39M - 55M people in the US have had the flu this season, with 24k-63k having died.  None of these estimates or multipliers for Covid-19 have been done, and won't likley be for quite awhile.  It's likely the mortality rate will be higher than the swine flu, but also likely well below 1% when these estimates are done.


Also in regard to the Swine Flu, according to a 11/09 CBS report:

In late July, the CDC abruptly advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu, and stopped counting individual cases. The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego testing and tracking individual cases was: why waste resources testing for H1N1 flu when the government has already confirmed there's an epidemic?
Some public health officials privately disagreed with the decision to stop testing and counting, telling CBS News that continued tracking of this new and possibly changing virus was important because H1N1 has a different epidemiology, affects younger people more than seasonal flu and has been shown to have a higher case fatality rate than other flu virus strains.
CBS News learned that the decision to stop counting H1N1 flu cases was made so hastily that states weren't given the opportunity to provide input. Instead, on July 24, the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, CSTE, issued the following notice to state public health officials on behalf of the CDC:
"Attached are the Q&As that will be posted on the CDC website tomorrow explaining why CDC is no longer reporting case counts for novel H1N1. CDC would have liked to have run these by you for input but unfortunately there was not enough time before these needed to be posted (emphasis added).
Basically the guidance given was to treat those with the symptons or risk profiles (recent travel to Mexico where there was a large outbreak) as if they had Swine Flu.  It's not likely the CDC has anymore than an outright guess how many people contracted or died from the Swine Flu in '09-'10.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/swine-flu-cases-overestimated/

[Ulrich Mayring]

I respectfully put forward that this thread is not off-topic on this or any other discussion board.

We are humans first and golfers second. This is the big one.

[Steve_ Shaffer]

Nevada closes golf courses...




https://www.ktnv.com/news/coronavirus/gov-sisolak-provides-update-on-nevadas-covid-19-response

[Pete_Pittock]

Nevada closes golf courses...
https://www.ktnv.com/news/coronavirus/gov-sisolak-provides-update-on-nevadas-covid-19-response

Reading within the article, maybe the golf courses could become places of worship.  Shadow Creek at Easter. Hmm.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

Nevada closes golf courses...

https://www.ktnv.com/news/coronavirus/gov-sisolak-provides-update-on-nevadas-covid-19-response

And NY.

[Steve_ Shaffer]

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Governor Steve Sisolak on Wednesday ordered a closure of golf courses and barred real estate open houses, religious gatherings of 10 people or more and imposed additional restrictions to try to stop the spread of the coronavirus.





https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/sisolak-closes-golf-courses-limits-religious-gatherings/

[Pete_Pittock]

Golf Digest map, state by state
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/golf/here-s-a-state-by-state-breakdown-of-where-golf-s-allowed-and-where-it-isn-t/ar-BB11IiA6?ocid=msedgdhp


Texas is moving from open to closed.

[Peter Flory]

My village actually uninstalled the free disc golf course in the park next to me.  It was quite a job to do so as the metal poles were cemented in the ground and the chain baskets were fixed upon them.  Now, instead of a dozen or so disc golfers per day playing to the baskets, they are playing to the trees that are near where the baskets were. 

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