[Bernie Bell]

And at some point, just generally speaking, we're going to have to choose economic health over this stuff. 50% of people can't remain out of work for months at a time.

It really isn't that simple.  "This stuff" is all that is preventing a situation being reached which is worse than Spain and Italy currently have.  When hundreds of thousands of people are dying (millions in a country as big as the US) you can't just "choose economic health" because it can't be achieved.  Nowhere is economically viable with that going on, because nothing looking like normal life can be lived.  Whilst most of the major Western governments have instituted lock downs, we read that one is hoping (based on God knows what science) to limit restrictions to 15 days.

Mark,


There is no science that would inform such a decision.  Only quackery and denial of science.


#freefauci

Ha!  Indeed.  I demand proof of life re Fauci.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

It really isn't that simple.

I didn't say it was simple. If anything, I'm saying the opposite: there are multiple vectors here at play, including the economic health of a country, of the individuals in that country, the development of treatment and vaccines, the growing knowledge, etc.

I imagine the membership here at GCA skews older and skews toward people who have done better in life than average. But this is pretty nuts: https://www.fool.com/retirement/2019/12/18/the-percentage-of-americans-with-less-than-1000-in.aspx - 69% of people have $1000 or less in savings and 45% have almost nothing.

It's not an easy solution, but there are opposing forces here - the danger of the virus and the danger of a huge chunk of the population  running out of money.

These are the kinds of things with no right answer. You're harming or potentially harming large groups of people regardless of what you decide.

[Steve_ Shaffer]

[Jim Sherma]

Another dimension of this will be the financial crisis that follows. 2008 was very much exacerbated by the mis-pricing securities backed by mortgage and/or consumer receivables. The pricing was based on the underlying assumption that FICO credit scores are linearly independent from one another. Just as the housing crash resulted in a time when they were not, this will most certainly repeat that. I am sure that pandemic is not written into any (or at least most) bond covenant or portfolio insurance contract.


If we knew that the health care system/hospitals could reasonably handle the sick and that this would peter out in 4-6 months then the decision of cratering the economy is not fully obvious. Given the fact that the hospitals can not handle the likely influx of cases and there is no guaranteed time line for this, the decision becomes a choice between uncertain bad outcomes, with no good outcome in the choice set. e.g. Is a 2-4% mortality rate worse than a 40-50% unemployment rate? Both are awful, not sure which results in more aggregate human misery.


 

It really isn't that simple.

I didn't say it was simple. If anything, I'm saying the opposite: there are multiple vectors here at play, including the economic health of a country, of the individuals in that country, the development of treatment and vaccines, the growing knowledge, etc.

I imagine the membership here at GCA skews older and skews toward people who have done better in life than average. But this is pretty nuts: https://www.fool.com/retirement/2019/12/18/the-percentage-of-americans-with-less-than-1000-in.aspx - 69% of people have $1000 or less in savings and 45% have almost nothing.

It's not an easy solution, but there are opposing forces here - the danger of the virus and the danger of a huge chunk of the population  running out of money.

These are the kinds of things with no right answer. You're harming or potentially harming large groups of people regardless of what you decide.

[Mark Pearce]

As you have both said, Jim and Erik, there are no easy answers.


But what is clear is that without short term lock downs, this will reach a state where it is catastrophic.  I don't see any credible sources saying that the current lock downs in most of the world are anything other than unavoidable.  If that serves to buy time, enabling the impact of a loosening of the restrictions (not a complete loosening) then that might mitigate both the health and economic consequences.  There's no possibility that this won't be ugly, what we need is leadership that grasps the difficulty and works together to achieve the least ugly outcome. 

[John Kavanaugh]

No leader short of calling marshal law can stop these idiot golfers from harming themselves and everyone around them. Can anyone make an argument that in ten years we might regret the couple of months we spent protecting our families when we could have been out golfing? I’m considering on the first tee of all future outings requesting a manifest outlining where you were during this crisis.

[Mark Pearce]

No leader short of calling marshal law can stop these idiot golfers from harming themselves and everyone around them. Can anyone make an argument that in ten years we might regret the couple of months we spent protecting our families when we could have been out golfing? I’m considering on the first tee of all future outings requesting a manifest outlining where you were during this crisis.

Strange times indeed.  I find myself agreeing with a second of your posts only days after the first....

[Steve_ Shaffer]

Clearing up the confusion that followed executive orders to close golf courses






https://www.lohud.com/story/sports/golf/2020/03/23/golf-after-confusion-not-all-courses-closed-executive-order/2898653001/

[corey miller]

That "cleans up the confusion"?  Private courses do the right thing and obey the Governor's order and County courses look for a technicality? 

[John Kavanaugh]

The pictures alone In that article prove my point.

[Kalen Braley]

** Martial Law! 

[jeffwarne]

That "cleans up the confusion"?  Private courses do the right thing and obey the Governor's order and County courses look for a technicality?

I'm sure Mike Young might have a problem with privately owned publics closed and state/county run courses open.
NY state has 50% of the Coronavirus cases in the country and a golf courses employee is supposed to come work while the gym, restaurant, bar, hair salon, and every other nonessential business is closed ?
Sag Harbor GC was bursting at the seams today-2 to a cart.
Going forward we'll need some clarity and people losing $$ are eventually going to tire of the inconsistencies.
Meanwhile Trump is blowing the dog whistle to attend "packed" churches on Easter Sunday-can't make this shit up.

[Steve_ Shaffer]

Golf Rounds Surged as Coronavirus Advanced. Now the Game Is Retreating.


Drawn by open-air acreage, free time and new social distancing guidelines, recreational golfers in the U.S. were playing in droves this month. Then courses started shuttering.




https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/sports/golf/golf-courses-open-coronavirus.html

[Kalen Braley]

That "cleans up the confusion"?  Private courses do the right thing and obey the Governor's order and County courses look for a technicality?

I'm sure Mike Young might have a problem with privately owned publics closed and state/county run courses open.
NY state has 50% of the Coronavirus cases in the country and a golf courses employee is supposed to come work while the gym, restaurant, bar, hair salon, and every other nonessential business is closed ?
Sag Harbor GC was bursting at the seams today-2 to a cart.
Going forward we'll need some clarity and people losing $$ are eventually going to tire of the inconsistencies.
Meanwhile Trump is blowing the dog whistle to attend "packed" churches on Easter Sunday-can't make this shit up.

Yea its beyond nuts Jeff,


Here in Utah various counties imposed restrictions on gatherings of no more than 10 people and said violations would result in a misdemeanor citing and fine.  Then the Governor of Utah steps in the next day and overrules it and asks for people to just use "common sense".  Since then we've had all kinds of egregious violations most of them involving religious gatherings to boot.


Throw in the talk of those suggesting older people paying the ultimate price in the name of the economy and its chaos to say the least... 

[Ulrich Mayring]

At this point it isn't just about how many people are going to die in this pandemic. It's also about how bad the next pandemic will be. It's still a ways to go until then and many are never going to make it there, but I believe we now know enough to safely say that most of us will make it into the next pandemic.

If the virus mutates, it might get deadlier, even more contagious or harmless. We don't know - but do we want to take a chance? If we allow millions of people to catch the virus, then it certainly has a lot of opportunities to mutate and come back even worse next year. And the year after that.

So at this point every infection avoided is one bullet dodged. The economy will tank, but that problem is far easier to handle. We're probably all saving a lot of CO2 right now.

[Sean_A]

That "cleans up the confusion"?  Private courses do the right thing and obey the Governor's order and County courses look for a technicality?

I'm sure Mike Young might have a problem with privately owned publics closed and state/county run courses open.
NY state has 50% of the Coronavirus cases in the country and a golf courses employee is supposed to come work while the gym, restaurant, bar, hair salon, and every other nonessential business is closed ?
Sag Harbor GC was bursting at the seams today-2 to a cart.
Going forward we'll need some clarity and people losing $$ are eventually going to tire of the inconsistencies.
Meanwhile Trump is blowing the dog whistle to attend "packed" churches on Easter Sunday-can't make this shit up.

Trump's handling of this crisis has been a shit show from day 1, which was at least a few weeks, if not 6 weeks late. But then I expect nothing more from the man.

Ciao

[JLahrman]

If I bet everybody on this website $5 that someone you know will get diagnosed with it by the time this is all done with (assuming we actually wind up with testing capacity!), my guess is I'd make out OK.

I think half the people on this site will get it unless lockdowns delay things until a vaccine comes out. I think most people will know someone who dies from it.

DING DING DING, a family member of mine has been diagnosed with it.

[jeffwarne]

That "cleans up the confusion"?  Private courses do the right thing and obey the Governor's order and County courses look for a technicality?

I'm sure Mike Young might have a problem with privately owned publics closed and state/county run courses open.
NY state has 50% of the Coronavirus cases in the country and a golf courses employee is supposed to come work while the gym, restaurant, bar, hair salon, and every other nonessential business is closed ?
Sag Harbor GC was bursting at the seams today-2 to a cart.
Going forward we'll need some clarity and people losing $$ are eventually going to tire of the inconsistencies.
Meanwhile Trump is blowing the dog whistle to attend "packed" churches on Easter Sunday-can't make this shit up.

Trump's handling of this crisis has been a shit show from day 1, which was at least a few weeks, if not 6 weeks late. But then I expect nothing more from the man.

Ciao

+1 
Now this-New York ccity has ordered "anyone who has been in and passed through New York City to self quarantine in their home for 14 days"
Yet Bethpage, state and county parks open?
Where TF do they think the players come from?

[John Kavanaugh]

Gov Cuomo is handling things quite well but the people of New York just can’t quit golfing.


It is becoming quite clear that politicians can not be held accountable for the ignorance of their supporters.

[jeffwarne]

If I bet everybody on this website $5 that someone you know will get diagnosed with it by the time this is all done with (assuming we actually wind up with testing capacity!), my guess is I'd make out OK.

I think half the people on this site will get it unless lockdowns delay things until a vaccine comes out. I think most people will know someone who dies from it.

DING DING DING, a family member of mine has been diagnosed with it.

I know 4(2 in Miami, 2 in NY) and a good friend knows one who died(south Florida)(who wasn't "old")
2 former Big East players in their early 40's died-it's not just old people.


Sadly the impeachment BS was wasted on a phone call, he should be removed for being unfit , totally unprepared,denying it instead of making sure we were on the ball for teating and now reckless endangerment("packed" churches at Easter?)-he's worried about an election (that has been over for him since the March 6th CDC Interview)

[Mike Sweeney]

I have lived in Manhattan for 30+ years, and I take advice from my Air Force Medical friends in Alaska. It's just data, and we are working through the problem:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXhZflwjywQ&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1lEHkmL2w2ts2ztnpvQc1biRB_iXKW-VX-QIx8mLGfRz5WpZmxMuJ9mNs


We have 2 people positive with COVID-19 in our building, and we have 12+ Cerebral Palsy Residents in our building too. I also have a number of Developmentally Disabled Residents living in a community with 150 Elderly Residents in Rockland County, NY which is 22 miles north of NYC. I am on the Board, and I have to stay away right now because of the COVID in our building in NYC.


Go play golf at Bethpage and other. It is open and people need a break. Walk, don't touch the pins, and ignore the USGA rules as we can't post scores in NY anyway right now. Play golf, appropriately.


Post some pictures too. This is a golf site, and I would appreciate seeing some pictures too. Thanks


PS - Oh yea, my older son was in the direct area of the NAS - Pensacola shooting in December 2019. We dealt with that too, and say a prayer for our friend Ensign Joshua Watson, USNA 2019 - RIP. You won't see this on traditional TV and this is how we pull together: https://www.facebook.com/jennifer.l.watson.9/videos/10221253220269784/

#AeternusUmbra (watch forever)

[JLahrman]

Sadly the impeachment BS was wasted on a phone call, he should be removed for being unfit , totally unprepared, and now reckless endangerment("packed" churches at Easter?)-he's worried about an election (that has been over for him since the March 6th CDC Interview)

Well it wasn't just a phone call and it was clearly an impeachable act. If the Senate wasn't going to convict him for that, they're certainly not going to convict him for this either.

[jeffwarne]

Sadly the impeachment BS was wasted on a phone call, he should be removed for being unfit , totally unprepared, and now reckless endangerment("packed" churches at Easter?)-he's worried about an election (that has been over for him since the March 6th CDC Interview)

Well it wasn't just a phone call and it was clearly an impeachable act. If the Senate wasn't going to convict him for that, they're certainly not going to convict him for this either.

based on who has contracted it and who is in isolation, I wouldn't be so sure of that...

[Jay Mickle]

The Pinehurst Resort announced that it was closing The Carolina hotel, it had already The Manor and The Holly. The courses are still open.

[Peter Flory]

What is the theory for how you'd contract the virus golfing?  Is it all based on removing the ball from the hole and coming in contact with the infected pin during ball removal? 

What if you removed you ball with a pair of plyers?  What if you just took gimmies or putted to a hockey puck laid next to the real hole?  What if you played your round with people that you're quarantined with anyway, like your wife?  To me, it feels about 1/100th as risky as going to the grocery store.  But part of my outlook may be because it's 40 degrees here and the courses are no crowded at all. 

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