Erik, In attempt to get you to stop re reiterating your point, I'll rephrase. Under the conditions present Sunday, if you want a better than not chance at making a 1, or, a 2, hit that mound. I don't care if it is on the first bounce, the 2nd or third.
Adam, they're not playing to make a 1 or a 2. They're playing to make the best average score, generally speaking.
It's a tough hole, but it's a mid-iron for them (or whatever), and their best chance of getting the best average score is to basically hit it at the middle of the green, erring (if I understand the slope to be back to front) a little short for the easier up-and-down attempts. THey'll average just under par on the balls that stay on the green, and 3.5 or whatever on those that miss. The really bad misses will average a bit higher.
Moving their aiming point to a spot off the green will not raise the number of balls that find the green, and will increase the number of balls that miss the green. Even if the chip shot is slightly easier, that's offset by more balls being in the rough or bunkers anyway.
There are rare times when a player is better off aiming to miss a green (essentially). I realize you believe that balls that miss will "kick" on, but I doubt balls on their third bounce are really kicking on. They're just sitting there. There often is no third bounce.