[Lou_Duran]

Or the old saying “Why buy the cow when you can buy the milk?”

The variation I've heard had it a little differently: "Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?".  As I recall, it was the lament of a father whose libertine daughter had moved in with a boyfriend.  Something about "free" that is appealing to a lot of folks.  And come to think of how things ultimately turned out, the old man had a point.


I suppose us old barbarians still adhere somewhat to the ancient principle "you eat what you kill".  If we've evolved to an understanding of "civilized" as being entitled to what someone else has bagged, then the question of whether Millies have shunned country club golf is moot.  As the political saint of free stuff remarked not so long ago, "It's all about the Benjamins".  Just get Treasury to print a few extra $trillions and we can have it all! 

[John Kirk]

Let's avoid turning this into a political discussion.  This subject, despite being one degree separated from pure politics, has existed for over 200 responses without crossing the line.

[Kalen Braley]

I too hope the tenor of this thread will remain mostly politics free.

As I think more on this topic, I suspect this is the the real reason why golf in general is suffering, and certainly applies to this topic.

Nearly half of Americans have jobs that pay $18k per year...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/minimum-wage-2019-almost-half-of-all-americans-work-in-low-wage-jobs/

[V. Kmetz]

The variation I've heard had it a little differently: "Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?".  As I recall, it was the lament of a father whose libertine daughter had moved in with a boyfriend.  Something about "free" that is appealing to a lot of folks.  And come to think of how things ultimately turned out, the old man had a point.

I suppose us old barbarians still adhere somewhat to the ancient principle "you eat what you kill".  If we've evolved to an understanding of "civilized" as being entitled to what someone else has bagged, then the question of whether Millies have shunned country club golf is moot.  As the political saint of free stuff remarked not so long ago, "It's all about the Benjamins".  Just get Treasury to print a few extra $trillions and we can have it all! 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zsa_Zsa_Gabor

[Mike Wagner]

Sorry,

But i'm not buying.  Just because I look out my window and its sunny and 75, don't mean its so everywhere.  I'm glad SBs local area is doing well, but this is the classic mistake of inserting personal experience over the data in the aggregate.

Rounds are down.
Course closings far outnumber new ones.
Number of active golfers is down
Total industry revenue is down.
Etc.

[/size]What time period are you using?  Are all these down year after year?  Since '08-'09?[size=78%]

[Lou_Duran]

Let's avoid turning this into a political discussion.  This subject, despite being one degree separated from pure politics, has existed for over 200 responses without crossing the line.

Certainly you jest!  Who was it that linked "free healthcare" to "civilized" nations?  Please note that if the emoticon you used buys you insurance, so should mine.  I know that you're into personal growth, so maybe reading up on Projection might be conducive.


As to politics and this thread, it drips with it.  Just consider two of the factors mentioned, student debt and the high cost of housing.  Both are greatly influenced by government/political policy.


The observation that economics is the study of human behavior in trade and commercial endeavors while politics is the practice of repudiating economics has relevant implications to any number of things including golf.  I don't care how you dice it, without capital AND disposable income, golf cannot be more than a small niche sport.

[V. Kmetz]

[
Certainly you jest!  Who was it that linked "free healthcare" to "civilized" nations?  Please note that if the emoticon you used buys you insurance, so should mine.  I know that you're into personal growth, so maybe reading up on Projection might be conducive.

As to politics and this thread, it drips with it.  Just consider two of the factors mentioned, student debt and the high cost of housing.  Both are greatly influenced by government/political policy.

The observation that economics is the study of human behavior in trade and commercial endeavors while politics is the practice of repudiating economics has relevant implications to any number of things including golf.  I don't care how you dice it, without capital AND disposable income, golf cannot be more than a small niche sport.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobacco_smoke_enema

[John Kirk]

Lou,

Apparently I was foolish enough to take the bait of Daryl David's snide remark about free healthcare, thus opening the door for you to try and pick a fight.  You're still trying.  I'm convinced I understand macroeconomics better than you do, but it is a complicated issue unfit for this discussion board.

With that said, if you're looking for my prediction, and I'm sure everybody cares, the golf industry, including the number of players and courses, will continue to decline in the next decade.  The decline will gradually accelerate.  To me, the reasons are plain as day.  With that said, good golf businesses should continue to thrive throughout the decade, and the intelligence and ability of the architects, agronomists and developers who build and maintain these courses has never been better.  It's a fabulous time to be a golfer.  It will probably never get better than this.

[John Kavanaugh]

In a perfect world no one would be able to get a tee time.

[Lou_Duran]

Lou,

Apparently I was foolish enough to take the bait of Daryl David's snide remark about free healthcare, thus opening the door for you to try and pick a fight.  You're still trying.  I'm convinced I understand macroeconomics better than you do, but it is a complicated issue unfit for this discussion board.

With that said, if you're looking for my prediction, and I'm sure everybody cares, the golf industry, including the number of players and courses, will continue to decline in the next decade.  The decline will gradually accelerate.  To me, the reasons are plain as day.  With that said, good golf businesses should continue to thrive throughout the decade, and the intelligence and ability of the architects, agronomists and developers who build and maintain these courses has never been better.  It's a fabulous time to be a golfer.  It will probably never get better than this.

John Kirk,


I am not trying to pick a fight.  First of all, you are much too easy, and second, the subject matter is way too serious to be so flippant.


You should know by now that I don't post for reactions or feedback.  I do believe that the record should reflect a variety of opinions and the many folks on this site who are simpatico with my POV just don't want the flak that I get on occasion.  Fortunately, though I am not a combative person, my skin is pretty thick and I can easily ignore zealots and nut jobs.


As to who has the best grasp of Macroeconomics, I've known of you for the better part of 17 years (we met in person at the Pasatiempo KP, as I recall in 2003; played together at the '11 KP in Bandon, not well, I might add).  If it would be as simple as playing 10 matches to determine who was the best golfer, I'd be willing to bet a considerable amount of money that your understanding of how the world works falls well short.  Alas, I am unaware of how to officiate that contest fairly.


Regarding your predictions, short of an unimaginable shift to socialism here in my lifetime, I doubt that there will be much of a decline in golfers over the long run.  As there remains an oversupply of courses in certain markets and a healthy demand for re-purposing land for higher uses and enlarge the tax base, there will likely be a continued reduction of inventory.  Beyond the next 10-20 years, I'd be uncomfortable guessing, but I would not be shorting golf.

[A.G._Crockett]

I've read the thread with interest, posting a couple of times early on.  Though I'm far from a Millenial, the topic is of great interest to me if only because I'm no longer a private club member after almost 35 years of being such.  I have a "membership", but it's really a monthly fee at UNC=Finley; it in NO way resembles a private club.
As it happens, I nearly finished with a book entitled "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman, the only psychologist to ever win a Nobel Prize, which he won for Economics; there is no Nobel for psychology.
At the risk of paraphrasing and oversimplifying, I think Kahneman writes about this thread.  He has established, thru painstaking research, that we humans are experts at constructing ex post facto narratives to explain the past, regardless of how much actual knowledge we have of cause and effect of past events.  Not only do we generalize that narrative to the past, but having accepted it in our minds as "fact", we ALSO apply it as a predictive model for the future; Kahneman refers to this as an "availability bias"; we already have a theory!
This is pertinent to the thread on several levels.

 First, the "history" of private golf clubs isn't homogeneous; there are LOTS of models. 

Second, private golf clubs that own real estate have only existed for a heartbeat of human history; that they have been around for all of OUR lives doesn't make them more than a heartbeat.  The assumption that private clubs is in any way a norm is a narrative that we created,  but that's about all. 

From the second flows the third; we ascribe motives to others based on our self=generated narratives not only about private golf clubs past and present, but our narratives about millenials that we know and our guesses about why they do (or don't do) certain things.  Again, there is a near-certainty that there are as many answers as there are millenials; everybody's situation is unique to them.

No real answer here; just striking in light of what I'm reading at the moment.  And I'd add one other things; Kahneman's Economics Nobel was for work that differentiated economic decision making in a more complex why than had been previously accepted.  Among his findings are that consumers will put a higher utility on a good that they already own, such as a private club membership, than on a good or service that they are considering purchasing, which Kahneman calls the Endowment Effect.  So perhaps those of us who are or have been private club members value those memberships inordinately compared to younger people without such memberships, regardless of other life circumstances.

If you've read Kahneman and I did a poor job or either explaining his work or of applying it to this thread, no need to point that out.  But it's one of the most fascinating books I've ever read; if you like a fusion of Psychology and Economics, give it a try.

[Padraig Dooley]

When it comes to looking at a subset that doesn't join a club or a country club, it's important to look at the reasons why people join clubs in the first place and look into further detail into the subset.
Why do golfers join clubs?
1. Distance - the closer a club is the more likely to join2. Atmosphere - Culture, Ambience, vibe, whether friends are there etc3. Quality of course - design, conditioning etc
4. Price5. Other - Clubhouse, practice area, food, other facilities etc
Two things that are mentioned as barriers are always cost and time, however golf courses are large maintained areas and will always have a cost associated with playing. Golf courses aren't generally big profit earners so they are hardly gouging customers. For the time factor golf is played over a large area and will always take time to play. Whether a round takes 4:20 instead of 4 hours isn't really a barrier. If anything joining a club gives adaptability in time, the golfer can play 4, 6, 9, 12 holes etc in the time that's available to them.

If we look at the 'Millenial' generation and see why they don't joins clubs it is because the generation of early 20's to late 30's have always been golf's lost generation. Many have mentioned it so far in the thread. That age group has the distance issue, they go to college, they get a job, change a job and the uncertainty about where they will be located in 5 years is a barrier into joining a club. The price is also a factor, finding a home, getting married etc all cost money so this is the other barrier. Both these are not unique to the 'Millenial' generation.
Should clubs start chasing the millenials? I don't think so, a few craft beers on draft and music playing on the range is not going to get a club a flood of 20 something members.

For clubs their location, course, clubhouse, facilities and even price is basically fixed. The one thing they can work on and tend to ignore is atmosphere. Atmosphere is key to retaining and growing membership, look after your current members and more will come. When looking at service it's not having 4 guys at a bag drop in the car park, it's knowing the membership and taking a genuine interest in them, knowing when Jim likes to play, that Jane is just back from a golf trip and to ask her about it, that George who normally plays 3 days a week but hasn't been around the club for 4 weeks and giving him a call to see what's happening. This is what clubs need to do to get members to stay and more to come and yes this would include millenials.
A further thing to do is to develop junior golfers and focus on making them golfers for life, most junior programs are looking to develop elite golfers. Develop a love of the game amongst the junior golfers and they are golfers for life. Even when they hit the lost generation of 20-40, some will continue to play frequently as golf is their passions, for the others even if their passions wains and they just play a couple of times a year, when they are more settled in life they'll come back to the game.
In short to get Millenials to join, look after your current members and develop a passion for golf in junior golfers.


 

[Lou_Duran]

Not a lot of new stuff here A.G. though I will try to get a copy of the book.  Cognitive dissonance, buyer's remorse, confirmation bias, selective perception, etc. have all been studied to great lengths.


Most everything on this site is opinion.  And as we all know of opinions, some are better than others.  Most of us 1st generation members of country clubs played golf at one time on public courses.  I can't speak about you, but I have very accurate recollections of many of the courses I've played for 50 years.  And though I've been a member of a few private clubs, I can certainly understand why many golfers do not see the value of club life.


The question posed in this thread asserts that Millies won't join CCs.  Of course it is a generalization which, even if directionally accurate, has multiple answers.  I advanced two or three of them that I believe might apply.


And, btw, when my son was first looking to join a club in Dallas, we did a lot of research.  To my great surprise, most all of the top clubs here have a very sizable group of young members as clearly evidenced during Sunday brunches and throughout the summer around the pool.   Second and third tier clubs, a number of them owned by Club Corp, specifically target young families.  As you might know, Club Corp is an active buyer in markets with sound economics.  Whoops!  There I go again, getting political.   

[Dave Doxey]

The discussion on reasons why people join clubs got me thinking about reasons for not joining a club. I spent most of my life as a member of a club, until recently when a relocation forced me to look at new clubs to join. (not talking a "high-end" club here...)


I decided to not join, primarily due to my perception that investing in a membership has become much more risky.  The risk is reflected in more and more clubs hitting financial difficulty.  This translates to the potential of initiation fees lost due to club sale or bankruptcy, or the potential for higher dues or assessments due to declining membership, or the general decline of club condition and service due to money problems. 


Are we in a spiral, where declining memberships cause financial troubles, the risk of which scares away new members?

[Lou_Duran]

Dave,


I have a similar problem but from a slightly different angle.  If I was 10-20 years younger, there are a number of clubs in the area that I would be happy as a member.  But with maybe 10 years left of decent golf, there is just not enough time to amortize the high joining fee even if there was no waiting list.


Millies have a totally different problem.  I remember when I was in my late 20s and had the opportunity to join Colonial CC for a reasonable amount at that time.  Growing up poor, I just could not pull the trigger.  My son says it is a matter of perspective- mine not being reasonable when it comes to matters of spending money.


One of my life's biggest regrets is that I was never a member of a great club.  My advice to young golf aficionados is to look carefully at the opportunity and if it requires a bit of a stretch to get in at a special place, find a way (funny how young people think nothing of a daily coffee run to Starbucks, Uber so they can bar hop, monthly fees for all sorts of media, pro shop shirts and headcovers when they visit a name club, things that when added up amount to some serious money).  I guess it is a matter of priorities.  And to jump from A.G.'s post, my bias is likely a result of how I benefited from being a member of a few private clubs.  I just wish I knew back when what I know now! 

[Scott Warren]

Lou,


A coffee costs a few dollars. A month of Netflix is what, a tenner? Even a shirt or headcover that might last several years at $100... you’re comparing all of that to a five or six-figure joining fee and a high-four or five-figure annual commitment for a private golf club in the US?


I’m not surprised millennials in the US are not joining private golf clubs. I doubt most are doing so out of choice. It’s hard enough here in Australia where fees are lower, wages are higher, education is cheaper, healthcare is essentially free and the climate makes for year-round conditions that improve the value proposition.

[Lou_Duran]

Scott,


Yours is an inaccurate view of golf in the U.S.  Sure that there are clubs with six figure joining fees.  There are many more that charge $2-$5k, and quite a few that you can join with next to no money down.  Right here in Dallas, Club Corp offers a full array, from $0 initiation to maybe $30k on the high side.  I just had a conversation with a young couple who joined a 36-hole club in north Dallas with two separate clubhouses and full club amenities for a princely price of $200/month.


At the opposite end, I played recently with a member of one of the three sisters here in Dallas whose top vendor just joined Preston Trail.  It took this guy more than seven years after he was accepted to become a member, and the initiation fee is low six figures but the annual dues are whatever they spend divided by relatively few members.  I am told that there is a large list including very young candidates with money in hand waiting for their letter.  Unfortunately, the wait list is getting longer.


Nevertheless, I do agree that economics plays a big part, as do choices.  The income and cost comparisons of our relative countries will be left for a future discussion- it is a much more complicated and nuanced subject matter than might meet the eye.

[Kalen Braley]

Lou,

I would take this bet anytime, with my money on Mr. Kirk.  Easy money...

"As to who has the best grasp of Macroeconomics, I've known of you for the better part of 17 years (we met in person at the Pasatiempo KP, as I recall in 2003; played together at the '11 KP in Bandon, not well, I might add).  If it would be as simple as playing 10 matches to determine who was the best golfer, I'd be willing to bet a considerable amount of money that your understanding of how the world works falls well short.  Alas, I am unaware of how to officiate that contest fairly."

[John Kavanaugh]

It's the number of people who believe they have earned the right to be members that is increasing. There is nothing quite like calling up a club about the possibility of joining and coming away with the thought of WTF was I thinking. I must have still been in my 30's when I cold called St. Louis CC and asked what I needed to do to join. I had never played there but had heard good things. It took a full 45 minutes on the phone to finally get though to me that it wasn't going to happen. It's not so much that St. Louis CC didn't want me, they didn't need me.

[Anthony Butler]

How many people have ever joined a country club before they owned a home?

That question probably needs the addendum 'Not including legacy memberships'.


I joined two clubs before I became a property owner through family connections... which fortunately included someone fronting the initiation fee. (Both paid back in full)

[Anthony Butler]

Ah, the backlash begins...


 

You know they don’t have goats right?

And without a clubhouse, they must not have yoga, either.

Or a pool...


Or tennis courts...


Or overheads...

The correlation between courses that built big fancy clubhouses and those who went bankrupt is quite remarkable, at least in the daily fee category... e.g. here in the Western Suburbs of Boston, Butterbrook and Red Tail seem to be doing OK operating out of their double wide trailers, while Shaker Hills and Quail Ridge (admittedly a pretty bad course) have either been sold at auction or broken up for home lots. The only thing that keeps Belmont Country Club (one of the better Ross courses in MA) afloat is the multiple assessments their wealthy membership has been forced to pay..

[SB]

The correlation between courses that built big fancy clubhouses and those who went bankrupt is quite remarkable, at least in the daily fee category... e.g. here in the Western Suburbs of Boston, Butterbrook and Red Tail seem to be doing OK operating out of their double wide trailers, while Shaker Hills and Quail Ridge (admittedly a pretty bad course) have either been sold at auction or broken up for home lots. The only thing that keeps Belmont Country Club (one of the better Ross courses in MA) afloat is the multiple assessments their wealthy membership has been forced to pay..

I'd be careful about drawing conclusions that there is a "remarkable" relationship.  Stow Acres also went under and it has a very modest clubhouse.  I am sure Belmont is fine - assessments are just another way of saying "dues" for some clubs, yet Boston Golf Club went under 10 years ago which has a tiny clubhouse for a private club.  Granite Links is a public course with 3, count em, 3 restaurants.  Not bankrupt. 

There are more than 100 golf courses in Boston and there are many reasons why they succeed and fail.  Clubhouse is one of them, but only one of many.  Also, bankruptcy is only a financial restructuring which indicates too much debt.  It's not an indicator of how much profit the club has.  All that said, I'll be the first to tell you that big clubhouses at public golf courses rarely pay for themselves.

[Tim Martin]

The correlation between courses that built big fancy clubhouses and those who went bankrupt is quite remarkable, at least in the daily fee category... e.g. here in the Western Suburbs of Boston, Butterbrook and Red Tail seem to be doing OK operating out of their double wide trailers, while Shaker Hills and Quail Ridge (admittedly a pretty bad course) have either been sold at auction or broken up for home lots. The only thing that keeps Belmont Country Club (one of the better Ross courses in MA) afloat is the multiple assessments their wealthy membership has been forced to pay..

I'd be careful about drawing conclusions that there is a "remarkable" relationship.  Stow Acres also went under and it has a very modest clubhouse.  I am sure Belmont is fine - assessments are just another way of saying "dues" for some clubs, yet Boston Golf Club went under 10 years ago which has a tiny clubhouse for a private club.  Granite Links is a public course with 3, count em, 3 restaurants.  Not bankrupt. 

There are more than 100 golf courses in Boston and there are many reasons why they succeed and fail.  Clubhouse is one of them, but only one of many.  Also, bankruptcy is only a financial restructuring which indicates too much debt.  It's not an indicator of how much profit the club has.  All that said, I'll be the first to tell you that big clubhouses at public golf courses rarely pay for themselves.

It hasn’t hurt Belmont that Robert Kraft is a long time member.

[Buck Wolter]

It's the number of people who believe they have earned the right to be members that is increasing. There is nothing quite like calling up a club about the possibility of joining and coming away with the thought of WTF was I thinking. I must have still been in my 30's when I cold called St. Louis CC and asked what I needed to do to join. I had never played there but had heard good things. It took a full 45 minutes on the phone to finally get though to me that it wasn't going to happen. It's not so much that St. Louis CC didn't want me, they didn't need me.

I heard a story of Rams lineman Kyle Turley walking in the clubhouse with his checkbook so he could join after buying a home on the grounds -- he did not get in. I think it took the Busch Beer family a couple generations to get in.

[Joe_Tucholski]

It's the number of people who believe they have earned the right to be members that is increasing. There is nothing quite like calling up a club about the possibility of joining and coming away with the thought of WTF was I thinking. I must have still been in my 30's when I cold called St. Louis CC and asked what I needed to do to join. I had never played there but had heard good things. It took a full 45 minutes on the phone to finally get though to me that it wasn't going to happen. It's not so much that St. Louis CC didn't want me, they didn't need me.

John I'm not sure what to make of this post.  Are you lamenting that there are more people in their 30's now who are like you when you were in your 30's?

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