The PGA in May - No. 6: BB ... A Tad Closer to a US Open than to a Barclays

[V. Kmetz]

Good lord... as most will tell you...while the weather has been crappy for playing golf this first half of a NYC spring, it has been ideal for growing (but not mowing) grass...especially leading into THIS week, where the Black will be getting the last of several cool, cloudy, showery days it has received in the last few weeks... this all after a generally tame winter.


Wednesday will begin the turn to sunnier weather and by Friday afternoon cut time, the course ought to be in as peaked a condition as the committee wishes to render it...


However, no matter what they do, there's one thing I'll bet they have little control over and that's the health and density of this rough after such a season...I'm telling you folks, if the Bethpage rough has gotten the health I've seen of un-mown rough around here locally thsi spring...watch out...it's going to be chip sideways break wrists kind of bird's nest stuff.


Of the NYC-area course that host major events (WF, Shinney, Baltusrol, BB)...the rough at BB can be the worst of the four.


There's no way the greens will get out of control, they will be perfect and true...so that would tell me a minus-10 to minus-12 score around 270...but because I predict the rough will be a real hazard, I'm scaling that back to a winning number of minus-6 to -8

[Jeff Schley]

So how much different do you think it will play then when it hosted a month later for the US Opens?

[Steve Lapper]

VK,


  Though we see things similarly more often than not, I will beg to differ with you here. Your headline and recent weather history are undoubtedly correct, yet as you say, the middle of the week is looking sunnier and drier, and I see them taking down the rough quite a bit.


  I also beg to differ about the nature of the bluegrass roughs, believing WF's is sturdier and considerably thicker when left to grow. If you factor in the fescue at Shinny, I'd argue that is tougher as well.


   The real differentiator is the benign nature of BB's greens. With the exception of just a relatively small number of holes, most of them are flattish, with some minor cant/tilt and very little internal movement. IMO, a long-hitting professional who finds fairways and greens for multiple days is coming in closer to 10-14 under. Save for being in the dead wrong spots on 14-17, there just isn't a strong enough defense for their premium shot-making.


  I just hope we see a heady enough competition to get the NY crowds into it. That's one factor that remains an unparalleled influence. outside the Ryder Cups. The quality of the trash-talking and subsequent ripostes are always part of a NY major.


Cheers!

[V. Kmetz]

VK,

  Though we see things similarly more often than not, I will beg to differ with you here. Your headline and recent weather history are undoubtedly correct, yet as you say, the middle of the week is looking sunnier and drier, and I see them taking down the rough quite a bit.

My reaction is more on the practicalties of mowing that place...it will have been difficult to get the machines on that enormous wet acreage thru Tuesday evenings fore-casted rain...if they didn't hit that last week, that rough is gone rogue...

  I also beg to differ about the nature of the bluegrass roughs, believing WF's is sturdier and considerably thicker when left to grow. If you factor in the fescue at Shinny, I'd argue that is tougher as well.

Admittedly, they are each ferocious in their own way... as much as I've been on the modernized BB, I've been on WF more, but I won't argue the point...I'll just say that the BB rough in this wet run-up will be at its worst.

The real differentiator is the benign nature of BB's greens. With the exception of just a relatively small number of holes, most of them are flattish, with some minor cant/tilt and very little internal movement. IMO, a long-hitting professional who finds fairways and greens for multiple days is coming in closer to 10-14 under. Save for being in the dead wrong spots on 14-17, there just isn't a strong enough defense for their premium shot-making.


Though you're right about greens and the ability ot make putts, this is probably our most significant divergence... I think that its going to be tough to hit fairways (on their narrowness alone) and I'm forecasting that this rough will be bad enough to cause any missed fairway to be a pressurized struggle to keep a par number. I'm going to speculate and say that any missed fairway results in a full stroke over par (on mean average).

I just hope we see a heady enough competition to get the NY crowds into it. That's one factor that remains an unparalleled influence. outside the Ryder Cups. The quality of the trash-talking and subsequent ripostes are always part of a NY major.

Wait a sec...THIS is our biggest divergence...NY crowds (I'm ashamed to say) are usually the most boorish, jingoistic, selfish, and demeaning to athletes in competition... I hope they all are issued sedation pills on the shuttle ride in from Jones Beach.  I don't need their roars to appreciate the competition.

Cheers!

[Ronald Montesano]

Let me(me) know whose good idea this was?


Farmingdale, NY 10 Day Weather
MAY 12
Cloudy   
--43°
20%
ENE 11 mph   87%
MON
MAY 13
Rain/Wind   
50°43°
100%
ENE 20 mph   78%
TUE
MAY 14
Cloudy   
50°43°
20%
N 10 mph   75%
WED
MAY 15
Partly Cloudy   
63°51°
10%
NW 12 mph   56%
THU
MAY 16
AM Showers   
65°50°
60%
W 9 mph   63%
FRI
MAY 17
Partly Cloudy   
64°51°
10%
W 10 mph   65%
SAT
MAY 18
Mostly Cloudy   
68°54°
10%
WSW 9 mph   57%
SUN
MAY 19
Mostly Cloudy   
71°57°
20%
SSW 9 mph   60%

[jeffwarne]

Let me(me) know whose good idea this was?


Farmingdale, NY 10 Day Weather
MAY 12
Cloudy   
--43°
20%
ENE 11 mph   87%
MON
MAY 13
Rain/Wind   
50°43°
100%
ENE 20 mph   78%
TUE
MAY 14
Cloudy   
50°43°
20%
N 10 mph   75%
WED
MAY 15
Partly Cloudy   
63°51°
10%
NW 12 mph   56%
THU
MAY 16
AM Showers   
65°50°
60%
W 9 mph   63%
FRI
MAY 17
Partly Cloudy   
64°51°
10%
W 10 mph   65%
SAT
MAY 18
Mostly Cloudy   
68°54°
10%
WSW 9 mph   57%
SUN
MAY 19
Mostly Cloudy   
71°57°
20%
SSW 9 mph   60%

Wed-Sun...perfect spectating weather
much better than August
and definitely better than the two June US Opens played there

[Steve Lapper]

VK,

  Though we see things similarly more often than not, I will beg to differ with you here. Your headline and recent weather history are undoubtedly correct, yet as you say, the middle of the week is looking sunnier and drier, and I see them taking down the rough quite a bit.

My reaction is more on the practicalties of mowing that place...it will have been difficult to get the machines on that enormous wet acreage thru Tuesday evenings fore-casted rain...if they didn't hit that last week, that rough is gone rogue...

  I also beg to differ about the nature of the bluegrass roughs, believing WF's is sturdier and considerably thicker when left to grow. If you factor in the fescue at Shinny, I'd argue that is tougher as well.

Admittedly, they are each ferocious in their own way... as much as I've been on the modernized BB, I've been on WF more, but I won't argue the point...I'll just say that the BB rough in this wet run-up will be at its worst.

The real differentiator is the benign nature of BB's greens. With the exception of just a relatively small number of holes, most of them are flattish, with some minor cant/tilt and very little internal movement. IMO, a long-hitting professional who finds fairways and greens for multiple days is coming in closer to 10-14 under. Save for being in the dead wrong spots on 14-17, there just isn't a strong enough defense for their premium shot-making.


Though you're right about greens and the ability ot make putts, this is probably our most significant divergence... I think that its going to be tough to hit fairways (on their narrowness alone) and I'm forecasting that this rough will be bad enough to cause any missed fairway to be a pressurized struggle to keep a par number. I'm going to speculate and say that any missed fairway results in a full stroke over par (on mean average).


 You are correct that missed fairways will be excessively penal, yet the mowed widths are wider than those for an Open.

I just hope we see a heady enough competition to get the NY crowds into it. That's one factor that remains an unparalleled influence. outside the Ryder Cups. The quality of the trash-talking and subsequent ripostes are always part of a NY major.

Wait a sec...THIS is our biggest divergence...NY crowds (I'm ashamed to say) are usually the most boorish, jingoistic, selfish, and demeaning to athletes in competition... I hope they all are issued sedation pills on the shuttle ride in from Jones Beach.  I don't need their roars to appreciate the competition.

  VK, No way!  Surely, some number of NY fans are guilty of some of what you claim, however they are as knowledgable as they are animated.

  I attended the 2009 Open and witnessed plenty of respect. We can agree to disagree about this, but I for one enjoy the energy that an impassioned crowd brings to a big event like this PGA Championship. A major by definition is a large event and this week is held at a big course in front of a sizable and emotionally invested crowd.

  I won't be going this year, however I do look forward to hearing about the barbs thrown at some of the game's more fragile flakes, phony smilers, et.al. Our neighbors have long memories and don't suffer fools easily.

BTW...and FWIW, Philadelphia fans are the undeniable holders of the title of most obnoxious professional sports fans in the US!


Cheers!

[Mike Sweeney]

BTW...and FWIW, Philadelphia fans are the undeniable holders of the title of most obnoxious professional sports fans in the US!

The worst are Philly guys living in NYC!!


This was a funny exchange last week, when Tiger crossed Round Swamp Road


https://twitter.com/TWlegion/status/1126294478183124993?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1126294478183124993&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.golf.com%2Fnews%2F2019%2F05%2F09%2Ftiger-woods-cross-street-bethpage-black-watch%2F

[Kyle Harris]

BTW...and FWIW, Philadelphia fans are the undeniable holders of the title of most obnoxious professional sports fans in the US!

[Tim Martin]

VK,

  Though we see things similarly more often than not, I will beg to differ with you here. Your headline and recent weather history are undoubtedly correct, yet as you say, the middle of the week is looking sunnier and drier, and I see them taking down the rough quite a bit.

My reaction is more on the practicalties of mowing that place...it will have been difficult to get the machines on that enormous wet acreage thru Tuesday evenings fore-casted rain...if they didn't hit that last week, that rough is gone rogue...

  I also beg to differ about the nature of the bluegrass roughs, believing WF's is sturdier and considerably thicker when left to grow. If you factor in the fescue at Shinny, I'd argue that is tougher as well.

Admittedly, they are each ferocious in their own way... as much as I've been on the modernized BB, I've been on WF more, but I won't argue the point...I'll just say that the BB rough in this wet run-up will be at its worst.

The real differentiator is the benign nature of BB's greens. With the exception of just a relatively small number of holes, most of them are flattish, with some minor cant/tilt and very little internal movement. IMO, a long-hitting professional who finds fairways and greens for multiple days is coming in closer to 10-14 under. Save for being in the dead wrong spots on 14-17, there just isn't a strong enough defense for their premium shot-making.


Though you're right about greens and the ability ot make putts, this is probably our most significant divergence... I think that its going to be tough to hit fairways (on their narrowness alone) and I'm forecasting that this rough will be bad enough to cause any missed fairway to be a pressurized struggle to keep a par number. I'm going to speculate and say that any missed fairway results in a full stroke over par (on mean average).


 You are correct that missed fairways will be excessively penal, yet the mowed widths are wider than those for an Open.

I just hope we see a heady enough competition to get the NY crowds into it. That's one factor that remains an unparalleled influence. outside the Ryder Cups. The quality of the trash-talking and subsequent ripostes are always part of a NY major.

Wait a sec...THIS is our biggest divergence...NY crowds (I'm ashamed to say) are usually the most boorish, jingoistic, selfish, and demeaning to athletes in competition... I hope they all are issued sedation pills on the shuttle ride in from Jones Beach.  I don't need their roars to appreciate the competition.

  VK, No way!  Surely, some number of NY fans are guilty of some of what you claim, however they are as knowledgable as they are animated.

  I attended the 2009 Open and witnessed plenty of respect. We can agree to disagree about this, but I for one enjoy the energy that an impassioned crowd brings to a big event like this PGA Championship. A major by definition is a large event and this week is held at a big course in front of a sizable and emotionally invested crowd.

  I won't be going this year, however I do look forward to hearing about the barbs thrown at some of the game's more fragile flakes, phony smilers, et.al. Our neighbors have long memories and don't suffer fools easily.

BTW...and FWIW, Philadelphia fans are the undeniable holders of the title of most obnoxious professional sports fans in the US!


Cheers!

Back in the mid eighties I remember going to an Eagles/Giants game in the old Veterans Stadium. The guy I was with told me that if I routed outwardly for the Giants it could present a problem.   I also went to a fair amount of games at the old Giant Stadium and no team’s fans had half the swagger or bravado that the Eagles fan’s had. “Ardent” is the adjective I would use to describe them.

[Steve Lapper]

BTW...and FWIW, Philadelphia fans are the undeniable holders of the title of most obnoxious professional sports fans in the US!

Noted and owed....Next time I'm back down your way, you up here.!


PS...Still doesn't change anything about Philly fans! First city to put courts and jails into their stadiums....telling!

[Mark Fedeli]

The worst are Philly guys living in NYC!!

That's not fair! I killed literally no one in Brooklyn last night after Kawhi's buzzer beater went in. Progress!

[JMEvensky]

PS...Still doesn't change anything about Philly fans! First city to put courts and jails into their stadiums....telling!

Didn't they boo Santa Claus?

[Jim Sherma]

PS...Still doesn't change anything about Philly fans! First city to put courts and jails into their stadiums....telling!

Didn't they boo Santa Claus?

No they pelted him with ice and snowballs.

[Jim Nugent]

The Black only has two par 5s.  Say the winner plays them an average 4.5, or 4 under, for the week.  To reach 14 under, as some of you predict, means averaging 10 under par on the par 3s and par 4s.  But the leader on tour at par 3s averages 2.93 per hole.  The leader at par 4s averages 3.91.  Both barely under par. 

I'm assuming Bethpage will play tougher than the average tour course.  If so, where will the leaders make up all those strokes against par, to reach 10, 12 or 14 under? 

[V. Kmetz]

To reach 14 under, as some of you predict, means averaging 10 under par on the par 3s and par 4s...
I'm assuming Bethpage will play tougher than the average tour course.  If so, where will the leaders make up all those strokes against par, to reach 10, 12 or 14 under?

Not me! I'm the OP who's saying this rough is going to cause 1.25 over par nearly every time its hit...and the combo of all things is going to keep the winner at 5-7 under, a bit closer to Woods' 2002 (-3) and Glover's 2009 (-4) than Barclay's -10/-9 from Watney (remember him?) and Reed.

[Phil Carlucci]

To reach 14 under, as some of you predict, means averaging 10 under par on the par 3s and par 4s...
I'm assuming Bethpage will play tougher than the average tour course.  If so, where will the leaders make up all those strokes against par, to reach 10, 12 or 14 under?

Not me! I'm the OP who's saying this rough is going to cause 1.25 over par nearly every time its hit...and the combo of all things is going to keep the winner at 5-7 under, a bit closer to Woods' 2002 (-3) and Glover's 2009 (-4) than Barclay's -10/-9 from Watney (remember him?) and Reed.

DJ spoke today about the importance of avoiding the rough because if you're in it you'll be forced to lay up.  I stood on the right side of #4 fairway this morning and watched someone (couldn't ID him) hit a drive about 10 feet into the rough, and follow with about a 60-yard lay-up short of the cross bunker.  Not sure if that'd be his play in the teeth of tourney play, but it was interesting to see.

[V. Kmetz]

To reach 14 under, as some of you predict, means averaging 10 under par on the par 3s and par 4s...
I'm assuming Bethpage will play tougher than the average tour course.  If so, where will the leaders make up all those strokes against par, to reach 10, 12 or 14 under?

Not me! I'm the OP who's saying this rough is going to cause 1.25 over par nearly every time its hit...and the combo of all things is going to keep the winner at 5-7 under, a bit closer to Woods' 2002 (-3) and Glover's 2009 (-4) than Barclay's -10/-9 from Watney (remember him?) and Reed.

DJ spoke today about the importance of avoiding the rough because if you're in it you'll be forced to lay up.  I stood on the right side of #4 fairway this morning and watched someone (couldn't ID him) hit a drive about 10 feet into the rough, and follow with about a 60-yard lay-up short of the cross bunker.  Not sure if that'd be his play in the teeth of tourney play, but it was interesting to see.

Phil, what was your overall impression of the parts of the course you saw...did you see machines out there in that wet rough?...was it is as bad as I think it is (I know you saw a pitch out)... because that's my contention... it must be ferocious given the whoel spring and the last 10 days in particular...


cheers vk

[Phil Carlucci]

To reach 14 under, as some of you predict, means averaging 10 under par on the par 3s and par 4s...
I'm assuming Bethpage will play tougher than the average tour course.  If so, where will the leaders make up all those strokes against par, to reach 10, 12 or 14 under?

Not me! I'm the OP who's saying this rough is going to cause 1.25 over par nearly every time its hit...and the combo of all things is going to keep the winner at 5-7 under, a bit closer to Woods' 2002 (-3) and Glover's 2009 (-4) than Barclay's -10/-9 from Watney (remember him?) and Reed.

DJ spoke today about the importance of avoiding the rough because if you're in it you'll be forced to lay up.  I stood on the right side of #4 fairway this morning and watched someone (couldn't ID him) hit a drive about 10 feet into the rough, and follow with about a 60-yard lay-up short of the cross bunker.  Not sure if that'd be his play in the teeth of tourney play, but it was interesting to see.

Phil, what was your overall impression of the parts of the course you saw...did you see machines out there in that wet rough?...was it is as bad as I think it is (I know you saw a pitch out)... because that's my contention... it must be ferocious given the whoel spring and the last 10 days in particular...


cheers vk

The rough is not deep like an Open but it is thick and lush, and with the fairways so narrow, there is simply just so much of it.  Andy Wilson has been all over the place talking about course conditions and I heard him mention today that it's about a 1/2 inch shorter than US Open rough but the heaviness will certainly be a challenge. 

I live five minutes from the course and -- not surprisingly -- it's raining again.