The discussion of the Mark Broadie book a month or two ago reinforced this idea to me. He says pretty clearly that the only good strategy for a pro on a hole with water alongside the green is to aim away from the water outside of their 99% margin of error - the way Ben Hogan described his strategy for the 11th at Augusta National - and that's how most players approach it now.
When you get to reading the copy of LSW that I sent you, you'll see that we said the same thing (in a bit more depth), and we even recommend to amateurs that they add a roughly ten-yard "penalty buffer" to water hazards, pushing their aim even further away from the water. (We also only count 80-90% of their shots in forming their Shot Zones, or 95-100% if they're really good players.)
P.S. Did Rickie take dead aim? Or is his 9-iron miss a 15-foot circle so he could aim four feet past the hole and be safe, and he just missed it slightly short?
He missed the shot, IMO. A few times.
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As for my opinion, which carries about as much weight as a thimble carries water… (no pun intended), I think that water abutting a green can influence the shot before it - players who know that they'll have to carry the water or "can't miss left" or something will likely factor that in to where they position their tee shots. And I've talked to some players, and there's not even any consistency here. On a hole with water right of the green, some players prefer to come from the right, so they're hitting "away" from the water, while others have told me they like to come from the left, as they're rarely "long" and this has them hitting over only grass (or sand), never over water.
Plus, I imagine an architect could build a green that slopes toward the water, thus allowing a player who plays a shot with some bounce/roll to it to filter the ball down closer to the hole, even if it's on the side of the green with the water. I've seen some greens like that, and appreciate that they require a different shot than the "fly it and stick it" type we commonly see in the U.S.
So… Again, that take may not be worth your time to read, but… I can think of a number of holes I quite like architecturally where water abuts the green on one or more sides.
P.S. Tom, are you at all familiar with the 8th at Avalon Lakes, and what are your thoughts on that? It's a Dye course, if you're not, and the LPGA used to play there. My college team plays its conference championship there.