Have you left the flag in?

[John Kavanaugh]

Amy Bockerstette didn't leave the pin in. Best putt on tour this year.

[Carl Nichols]

Is there a single study that suggests it's better to take the pin out? 

[John Kavanaugh]

Is there a single study that suggests it's better to take the pin out?

They are doing clinical studies as we speak on the PGA Tour.

[JESII]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.golfdigest.com/story/edoardo-molinari-conducts-pretty-scientific-puttingflagstick-experiment-and-the-results-may-surprise-you/amp

[JESII]

Only helps when the ball is literally still in the air...

[John Kavanaugh]

Only helps when the ball is literally still in the air...

Which is exactly what happens when you slam putts from 18 inches out.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.golfdigest.com/story/edoardo-molinari-conducts-pretty-scientific-puttingflagstick-experiment-and-the-results-may-surprise-you/amp

Based on his comments it’s likely he wasn’t even testing balls that went 4’ by the hole. He said in his match against Mark Crossfield that for balls going “at a very high speed” “like 4 to 5 feet beyond the hole” it’s better to leave it in.

His study was given weight by everyone I’ve talked to in doing this. His is a bit of anoutlier at this point too.

I have no vested interest here. I’ll go and recommend what the data leads me to see, say, etc. Right now it mostly points in one direction.


Phone post, so brief.

[Scott Warren]

I’ve played seven rounds since the rules changed and experimented a fair bit with the flag when putting. 


In a windy spot where the flagstick is moving, I’m never leaving it in. Besides the noise and movement, I reckon a ball that hit the flag as it thrust toward you would knock it away.


Initially I thought I’d use the stick on short putts on slopes to take the break out of them but success has been mixed enough that I think just hitting a good putt at the empty hole is preferable.


Likewise reading the green with the flag in is another variable that’s not totally reliable and can deceive the eye.


I understand that in the tests that have been done the result is that having the flag in helps you, but that eliminates a heap of the other factors that are present in a person hitting a putt in a real world scenario.


It won’t suit/help every person every time, and that’s not mutually exclusive to the statements about the statistical benefit.

[jeffwarne]

I think the USGA had a sheer genius Trump moment.


Get people talking about pin in/out, knee high drops and other ridiculous "changes" and distract them form discussing the complete neglect by the governing bodies in regulating equipment while simultaneously promoting the agronomy arms race.

[RussBaribault]

No! Because most golf flags are no the same one used on the Professional Tours. Most are much thicker at the average golf club. Most golfers are not are not tour golfers hitting almost perfect putts with perfect speeds.

[A.G._Crockett]

Is there a single study that suggests it's better to take the pin out?

No, there isn't, and there never will be.
That, however, is never a deterrent in post-factual America, and especially not on this particular website of men whose tombstones should read "Often wrong, never in doubt!"

[JESII]

AG - there is. Very credible source as well.


See my response to Carl's question...

[JMEvensky]

AG - there is. Very credible source as well.


See my response to Carl's question...

Golfworld has an article saying not so fast on leaving the flagstick in.

[JESII]

The un-measurable is how much it makes you THINK it's going to help. If BDC and Adam Scott are positive it helps, the way a backboard helps you shoot a basketball, then it helps but the USGA will unwind it.


I personally can't get around the experiences of the balls the pin has rejected so to me it would be like putting a pole up through the middle of the basket and asking if you thought it would help you make more foul shots...

[Erik J. Barzeski]

Because most golf flags are no the same one used on the Professional Tours. Most are much thicker at the average golf club.

Really? Most are the same 0.5" as almost everywhere else.

Most golfers are not are not tour golfers hitting almost perfect putts with perfect speeds.

That's a reason to leave it in. At perfect speeds the flagstick is irrelevant. And… Tour players probably don't hit "perfect putts with perfect speeds" nearly as often as you think.

No, there isn't, and there never will be.

That's not true, though.

At the fringes where these two conditions are met, the flagstick can be detrimental:

• the ball is rolling at a speed where it barely goes in
• the ball just ticks the flagstick - enough to divert the ball and shorten the "air time" but not so much that much speed is taken off

At that combination of speed and off-centered-ness the flagstick can hurt.

The un-measurable is how much it makes you THINK it's going to help.

It is.

And if a flagstick costs you one putt but helps you four times, people might still give more weight to the one time it cost them than the times it helped them. Like Jim, who "can't get around" his experiences and his really bad analogy about making more foul shots.

-------

https://twitter.com/iacas/status/1093159882155614209

[JESII]

Why is the foul shooting analogy bad?

[Erik J. Barzeski]

Why is the foul shooting analogy bad?

A number of reasons, including but not limited to the trajectory on which the ball is entering the hole and the fact that a basketball is about 9.4" while the hoop is 18" - less than double the size. A golf hole is over 2.5 times as large. The materials matter, too, and other things…

I'm not your psychologist, and never will be. All I can talk about is the data. What your mind does with it is entirely up to you, and doesn't really affect me at all. If you want to picture a flagstick as if it's an evil troll kicking balls out, that's your deal. And it's fine by me… but it doesn't carry any real scientific weight, while at the same time I acknowledge that it's going to have a very real impact on how you play golf with or without the flagstick in.

My opinions, and my recommendations, are simply where the data pushes me. I'm not pre-conceiving anything (scientific people test hypotheses, but they're just educated guesses, they don't cling to them in the face of contrary data). Just going where the data takes me.

The Cal Poly study seems a lot like Edoardo's study - testing a fringe condition of just the right speed where the ball barely goes in without the flagstick, and just enough of the flagstick to cut down the "fall time."

[JESII]

Erik,


I haven't seen the Cal Poly study but to consider Molinari's test to use fringe conditions is a little weird. You declined to discuss this in terms of ball speed and green speed early in the thread and so does EM in his study and for similar reasons...you both want it to be easier for people to understand the conditions.


I agreed that ball speed wouldn't really help without further explanation. His three speeds and locations are pretty logical to me. You earlier suggested his high speed was no more than three feet by because of some other unrelated commented he made. In this test he says the ball is still bouncing in the air. Doesn't sound like it's stopping in 3 feet...a ball hitting the back rim might stop in three feet going uphill or on slow greens. His conditions are sound, if not scientific...


What's the fringe element?




FWIW, because you're sold on the data you've seen so far doesn't mean it's fact...

[Erik J. Barzeski]

I haven't seen the Cal Poly study but to consider Molinari's test to use fringe conditions is a little weird.

There's a narrow window where if both the ball speed and the entry point are within a small range that it's detrimental in vs. out. In all of the testing I've seen, this window is very small, and overall, the flagstick is better off in than out.

Remember, too, we're only talking about the middle 2.18" of the hole. Anything outside that and the flagstick in or out is irrelevant.

You earlier suggested his high speed was no more than three feet by because of some other unrelated commented he made.

His comments were not at all "unrelated."

His conditions are sound, if not scientific...

You don't know that. You seemingly want to believe it, but you don't know that. There were a number of issues with his testing, including how far away from the hole he was when he was rolling the ball.

The tests I conducted were more sound than his, and I've said here I wouldn't raise them to the level of scientific standards. I didn't, for example, test or measure or ensure consistent soil density and/or firmness and/or moisture levels at the cup over my two days of testing. They undoubtedly changed quite a bit, and since I tested starting in the middle of the hole and working my way outward (alternating quite often in vs. out), and because I changed holes and angles frequently, those weren't consistent.

EM probably wasn't even hitting the same 1/8" section of the hole with 90% of his rolled balls.

FWIW, because you're sold on the data you've seen so far doesn't mean it's fact...

I have a background in the sciences. These kinds of things are just second nature. I'm not "sold" on the data, but it's pushing in one direction.

Look at the video in the Cal Poly study. The ball enters the hole in quite different locations even on subsequent rolls. Even from 32" away the ball's path can be altered by a hundred different little bumps and things. That's one of the reasons I tested from 18" away.

-----

Edit:

My advice will remain the same until the data prompts me to say otherwise:

• If the flagstick is leaning a lot or it's not blowing back and forth, have it tended or take it out. These situations are rare.
• On putts where you're pretty darn sure you'll control your distance well (~3' by the hole or less), take it out if you want*.
• On putts where you're pretty darn sure, leave it in. These will tend to be longer putts, and the flagstick, overall, will provide assistance.

* Or if you're Adam Scott and you feel it helps you aim from three feet, leave it in. But these types will probably be in a small minority.

Will this save the average golfer 20 shots a year? No. Will it save you a few? Sure, it can. There will also be golfers, partly because they don't play as much, they miss the hole a lot, they take it out more than they could and maybe should, their speed is good, or some combination who aren't helped at all. Just like there will be the incredibly rare situations where a golfer is helped four or five shots in a round.

[Jason Topp]

Random Thoughts:
1.  I have played 5 rounds this year and generally left the flag in.  In my groups of four I have seen one putt go in that seemed like it was going to miss and one putt stay out that looked like it was in.  The one that stayed out was mine and it really irritated me.  I suspect that irritation had more of an impact on score than the decision to leave the flag in or out.

2.  The differences in studies seems to relate to assumptions about the speed at which the ball will approach the hole.  The Molinari test and the Cal Poly study seem to assume the ball is travelling at relatively slow speed.  Other tests reaching the opposite conclusion include putts that will go significantly past the hole.  My impression is that the right answer may well depend on how confident the player is that he will control speed. 

3. These tests only address the physics of a ball approaching the hole. I am not aware of any information on whether the presence of the flagstick helps a player to either aim better or control speed more accurately.  That may carry more significance than the physics.  I suppose someone could have the flag tended for a 5 footer but that would be strange.

4. My current working theory is that if I am confident I will hit a putt at the right speed (hitting back of cup without bouncing) take the flag out.  If I am not, leave it in. 

5.  For me, social considerations will probably outweigh any microscopic advantage one way or another.  If it is easier logistically to leave the flag out because someone else took it out, I will likely do so.

[Doug Siebert]

And if a flagstick costs you one putt but helps you four times, people might still give more weight to the one time it cost them than the times it helped them. Like Jim, who "can't get around" his experiences and his really bad analogy about making more foul shots.

This is the thing in a nutshell. When your ball hits the flagstick and goes in, there isn't any way to know that it would have gone in without the flagstick. When you ball power lips or jumps a hole without a flagstick, there isn't any way to know that it would have gone in with the flagstick.

It is a lot easier to believe that a ball that hits the flagstick and gets rejected would have gone in without it than to believe a ball that power lipped or jumped the hole would have gone in with it, because it is natural to want to believe the "correct" outcome for a shot that catches a good piece of the hole is to go in. That's why we always feel robbed when we get a 180* powerlip or a ball that jumps the ball.

I think we are quibbling over tiny tiny factors though. You might play a dozen rounds before you have one putt where the flag in/out makes a difference. Who cares which way that advantage falls, just enjoy the faster play and don't worry about it. The only ones who should care are pros who could lose a half million dollars over a single shot.

[Peter Flory]

I've recently watched a lot of old film from the Bobby Jones era on through the 50s.  I was surprised to see that the pin was tended and removed on nearly every chip, pitch, and bunker shot.  Then I learned that the rule at that point was that the pin had to be removed for every shot within 20 yards of the hole, regardless of whether the player was on the green or not.

The history of the rule was more complicated than I knew. 
http://www.ruleshistory.com/green.html

[Erik J. Barzeski]

2.  The differences in studies seems to relate to assumptions about the speed at which the ball will approach the hole.  The Molinari test and the Cal Poly study seem to assume the ball is travelling at relatively slow speed.  Other tests reaching the opposite conclusion include putts that will go significantly past the hole.

Somewhat true, as even the Cal Poly and Molinari tests only show opposite results within that narrow window. On higher speeds and more centered contact, the results are similar and more putts go in than miss (and those that still miss stay closer with the flagstick in).

4. My current working theory is that if I am confident I will hit a putt at the right speed (hitting back of cup without bouncing) take the flag out.  If I am not, leave it in.

Pretty much what the data is saying and what we've recommended on the LSW site since early January.

5.  For me, social considerations will probably outweigh any microscopic advantage one way or another.  If it is easier logistically to leave the flag out because someone else took it out, I will likely do so.

As will be the case with most social (mostly) rounds. Competitive situations will warrant diminished consideration for the "social considerations."

I think we are quibbling over tiny tiny factors though. You might play a dozen rounds before you have one putt where the flag in/out makes a difference. Who cares which way that advantage falls, just enjoy the faster play and don't worry about it. The only ones who should care are pros who could lose a half million dollars over a single shot.

Hence the topic of my tweet today, and several posts I've made similar to that. This isn't happening, on average, twice a round (unless you leave the flagstick in all the time or something, which we don't recommend).

To nobody in particular, and not in response to the above, but something that occasionally bears repeating: the flagstick provides a small measure of added depth perception, and is another reason to leave it on longer putts.

[JESII]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.golfdigest.com/story/edoardo-molinari-conducts-pretty-scientific-puttingflagstick-experiment-and-the-results-may-surprise-you/amp

Based on his comments it’s likely he wasn’t even testing balls that went 4’ by the hole. He said in his match against Mark Crossfield that for balls going “at a very high speed” “like 4 to 5 feet beyond the hole” it’s better to leave it in.

Erik,


The study has a column for balls that are still bouncing in the air...I doubt they would be stopping 4' - 5' by the hole...do you think that's what he meant? I have no idea what comments about a Mark Crossfield match you're talking about...

[Erik J. Barzeski]

The study has a column for balls that are still bouncing in the air...I doubt they would be stopping 4' - 5' by the hole...do you think that's what he meant?

Those are balls that, when they hit the back of the hole, hit a little below the equator but still go in 81% of the time. They made 0% of the putts at that speed on the "grazing the flagstick" line (with or without the flagstick) and made 7% more on that speed "touching" the flagstick (how scientific!) with the flagstick in.

I have no idea what comments about a Mark Crossfield match you're talking about...

But you were sure they were "unrelated" comments earlier.

Again, I don't know what you want here, Jim. The current data suggests that the majority of the time, when the ball is rolling at a speed that would put it > 3' by the hole, the flagstick helps. So, my recommendations reflect that. There also appears to be a narrow window of just the right combo of speed and line when the flagstick being in hurts, but I believe the data shows that's more than made up for by the situations (combinations of speed/line) where the flagstick helps.

Plotted in a graph of entry point vs. speed, I think you'd see a big green area in the bottom left and through the middle, with some redder areas in between. Kinda like this (I did this REALLY quickly and just for illustrative purposes):



At low speeds where the ball just nicks the stick, it can hurt, but that window is narrow. At higher speeds or closer to the center of the flagstick, the ball is helped. (Not shown: situations where the flagstick isn't even involved, like a putt more than 1.09" off center.)