[Kalen Braley]

Erik,

I can't think of another scenario where the flag wouldn't be straight up and down, what else could it be?

I suppose this could be the case on a severe slide slope, but then you've got bigger problems 

[Erik J. Barzeski]

I can't think of another scenario where the flag wouldn't be straight up and down, what else could it be?

Really?

Flagsticks and cups wear a little over time, and sometimes they don't sit straight up and down in the hole.

[Kalen Braley]

I can't think of another scenario where the flag wouldn't be straight up and down, what else could it be?

Really?

Flagsticks and cups wear a little over time, and sometimes they don't sit straight up and down in the hole.

So you can eyeball a pin that sits 86 degrees from the plane of the green vs one at a perfect 90?


And even if it did, down near the base it would be maybe 1-2 degrees off, barely enough to makes a difference..

[JESII]

Erik, keep in mind that the pin ONLY helps when the ball is going at least 4 feet by so trying to suggest I keep it in when it's leaning towards me as long as the ball would still fit would require a level of calculation not possible in the practical realm of playing golf...which includes exponentially more rejections than holed shots...


On the flip side, I played with a guy Sunday that was having a Bishop from Caddyshack round. His semi-skulled pitch from 30 yards short right of our 16th green smashed into the pin and went in the hole. Without the pin, it would have likely skipped off the green, through the greenside bunker and potentially through the fence and out-of-bounds... My estimate is that he saved 5 shots by keeping the pin in on this shot.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

So you can eyeball a pin that sits 86 degrees from the plane of the green vs one at a perfect 90?

You can't?

And even if it did, down near the base it would be maybe 1-2 degrees off, barely enough to makes a difference..

Why would a flagstick that's 4° off be 1-2° off at the bottom?

And… it makes a difference. I never said it'll suck a ball in that's going to miss by a foot and pull it in.

Erik, keep in mind that the pin ONLY helps when the ball is going at least 4 feet by

That's not 100% accurate (it can help a little bit at 3' by speed, too), but yes, I know how often it helps vs. doesn't.

so trying to suggest I keep it in when it's leaning towards me as long as the ball would still fit would require a level of calculation not possible in the practical realm of playing golf…

Boy you're really talking up your intellect here. First you tell us that your mind refuses to accept facts, and now you are telling me that you cannot eye up a flagstick and make a quick estimation of whether it's leaning "a little" or "a lot"?

This isn't a "calculation." You look at the stick and if it's leaning a lot, you take it out or have it tended if it won't stay up straight.

[JESII]

I always love the guys that tell me how smart they are...


Maybe for starters, when does a little become a lot?

[Pat Burke]

I always love the guys that tell me how smart they are...


Maybe for starters, when does a little become a lot?

About the same time a putt is right edge, and slightly above the right edge......or inside right?

[JESII]

I always love the guys that tell me how smart they are...


Maybe for starters, when does a little become a lot?

About the same time a putt is right edge, and slightly above the right edge......or inside right?

And right center...and split the right edge...

[Erik J. Barzeski]

I always love the guys that tell me how smart they are...

I didn't do that.

Maybe for starters, when does a little become a lot?

When the ball no longer fits between the flagstick and the edge of the hole.

Jim, what's your end goal here? What's the point of posts like that? Leaving the flagstick in rarely hurts you and overall provides assistance or helps you. Even PGA Tour golfers hit a good number of putts, particularly from longer range, 3+ feet past the hole. We've published our findings, we've given our recommendation, and you… what? If you wanna take the flagstick out all the time, go right ahead. Won't bother me in the slightest. Your actions don't change the results of the testing I've done, or that Pelz has done, or Lou Stagner, or the others with whom I've talked about this.

[JESII]

To figure out if I should leave the pin in or take it out...


My conclusion so far is that it's simply not worth thinking about because the numbers you've presented (which I appreciate) suggest I'll have less than 1 putt per year positively impacted by the pin...

[Erik J. Barzeski]

My conclusion so far is that it's simply not worth thinking about

Then the recommendation remains the same: leave it in until you're certain you'll leave the putt within about 3' of the hole, because it almost never hurts and helps a lot more often.

If you were allowed to play a $100 lottery for free every day, and doing so required no extra actions on your part, I would hope you'd play just about every day.

You're trying to make it into some sort of complex thing. It's not, and I've never positioned it as such. I don't have players measure the distance between the edge of the cup and the flagstick - they eye it up like we've always done.

And if you're only gonna have one putt per year affected by this, you don't play much golf.

[JESII]

My guess was based on your number of 11,000 PGA Tour putts outside 10' finishing 4+ feet past...that's on 130 players per week and 50 events per year equaling .4 of those per round and 95% of those NOT being over the center of the hole...so 0.02 putts per round outside 10' going 4+ feet past that would smash right onto the middle of the flag. 0.02 is 1 in 50 rounds...

[Erik J. Barzeski]

My guess was based on your number of 11,000 PGA Tour putts outside 10' finishing 4+ feet past...that's on 130 players per week and 50 events per year equaling .4 of those per round and 95% of those NOT being over the center of the hole...so 0.02 putts per round outside 10' going 4+ feet past that would smash right onto the middle of the flag. 0.02 is 1 in 50 rounds...

It's likely higher than that. Not getting in to the math again, because I've got a lesson here soon, and because you don't have to do anything to get this advantage except NOT take the flagstick out when you're farther away from it. Taking it out often requires MORE effort (people are farther from the hole than after they hit a putt and can walk up to tap in or mark).

And of course, there are going to be rounds where a guy is helped four shots in a single round by leaving the flagstick in as well as stretches where someone, likely a really poor putter, goes 20 rounds in a row and not once hits the stick or center of the hole from outside of 15'.

Leaving the flagstick in provides a net advantage. That's all I've ever really said. If you wanna take it out, you do you. But it doesn't change the facts as we know them.

[JESII]

What could make it higher than that?  Something more than 5% of these putts going over the center of the hole is all I can imagine and I can't remember the last time I saw a guy on TV putt it straight over the center of the hole. It doesn't happen. If anything, it's less than 5%...


I understand your recommendation. If that's all you have to add, great.


I'm interested in discussing how this works in the real world because I've seen plenty of slow rolling putts hit the pin and deflect out, and very few putts (that would have had the pin out, but now have the choice) fly over the center of the hole. I understand that analyzing those very few putts (the ones that would have flown over the center of the hole...) leads to the conclusion that its an advantage, and a free one at that...but the numbers are so small, and my experiences so one-sided the other way that I have to ask questions...

[Erik J. Barzeski]

and I can't remember the last time I saw a guy on TV putt it straight over the center of the hole. It doesn't happen. If anything, it's less than 5%...

Your mind seems to be made up not based on the ShotLink data or anything like that, but based on what you think is true or what you "can imagine." I think you'd be shocked at how often the ball rolls over enough of the hole for the flagstick to help.

You'd likely not have guessed that this is at all accurate either based on what you "think" or "can imagine," but it is:

I'm interested in discussing how this works in the real world because I've seen plenty of slow rolling putts hit the pin and deflect out

Gotta love the anecdata.

and very few putts (that would have had the pin out, but now have the choice) fly over the center of the hole.

A putt rolling at a speed that would go 4' by the hole is not "flying over the center of the hole." It's often hitting the back lip and nearly going in. And in my testing, 100% of the putts at 4' by speed went in… whether the flagstick was in or out. But at 1/2" off center, those numbers start to drop. At 4' by and 3/4" off center, 36% more putts went in than missed (44% vs. 8%).

I understand that analyzing those very few putts (the ones that would have flown over the center of the hole...) leads to the conclusion that its an advantage, and a free one at that...but the numbers are so small, and my experiences so one-sided the other way that I have to ask questions...

Even on a putt rolling 3' by (stimp 10) my study found a 22% advantage in holing putts… 1" off-center. (A ball misses the flagstick at ~1.09".) The percentages for other speeds and locations are often quite a bit higher.

Your experiences about the flagstick hurting more than helping isn't backed up by the studies that have been done.

[Terry Lavin]

and I can't remember the last time I saw a guy on TV putt it straight over the center of the hole. It doesn't happen. If anything, it's less than 5%...

Your mind seems to be made up not based on the ShotLink data or anything like that, but based on what you think is true or what you "can imagine." The ball rolls over enough of the hole for the flagstick to help far more often than you think.

You'd likely not have guessed that this is at all accurate either based on what you "think" or "can imagine," but it is:

I'm interested in discussing how this works in the real world because I've seen plenty of slow rolling putts hit the pin and deflect out

Gotta love the anecdata.

and very few putts (that would have had the pin out, but now have the choice) fly over the center of the hole.

A putt that would roll 4' by the hole is not "flying over the center of the hole." It's often hitting the back lip and nearly going in.

I understand that analyzing those very few putts (the ones that would have flown over the center of the hole...) leads to the conclusion that its an advantage, and a free one at that...but the numbers are so small, and my experiences so one-sided the other way that I have to ask questions...

Even on a putt rolling 3' by (stimp 10) my study found a 22% advantage in holing putts. The percentages for other speeds and locations are often quite a bit higher.

Your experiences about the flagstick hurting more than helping isn't backed up by any of the data we have.

Some people are good at social media. You are anti-social media. I’m sure we are all glad of all of your self-reported accolades, but your dismissive, supercilious attitude is most unwelcome hereabouts. Put me down in your “ignored” signature.

[JESII]

“I think you'd be shocked at how often the ball rolls over enough of the hole for the flagstick to help.”




How often does it happen?





“Gotta love the anecdata”

[JESII]

When you posted the stat about 11,000 putts from 10’+ running at least four feet past the hole...you left out how many total putts from 10’+ there were. Any particular reason? How many were there? I’ll put the over / under line at 214,768...

[JESII]

Have you linked your study anywhere? Curious to check it out.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

When you posted the stat about 11,000 putts from 10’+ running at least four feet past the hole...you left out how many total putts from 10’+ there were. Any particular reason? How many were there? I’ll put the over / under line at 214,768...

The under wins, big time. ~62% of your number, and 15.5% of them were made.

[JESII]

I started at 160k then went up to 215k to make you feel good...


They make 15.5% of all putts outside of 10’?

[Erik J. Barzeski]

I started at 160k then went up to 215k to make you feel good...

Just a bit under 133,000.

They make 15.5% of all putts outside of 10’?

Of the ~133,000 putts hit in 2018 on the PGA Tour from outside of 10', 15.5% (~20,500) were holed.

[Steve Lang]

    So how are pro stats to be converted or translated to am stats in a meaningful way?  Qualitative only?


Courses are in top shape and players are used to fast and flattish greens... etc..

[JESII]

Steve,


If you're suggesting that everyday players would benefit by playing Tour greens day-in and day-out, I agree it would help their putting. The greens this week look pretty firm so that would present a different challenge but...


If you're simply wondering if there are putting stats for amateurs, I believe Golfmetrics was the name of the study Mark Broadie references in his book as tracking a couple hundred amateurs for a year (or more...) and creating Shotlink like data, including putting.


If you're wondering how many putts per year go straight over the center of the hole and 4+ feet by, so am I...

[Steve Lang]

  Jim,

Yes, to all of those thoughts, plus some others. Now, granted, I’ve only played 59 years and am still learning the game, but I know some things:

I know I love putting on our WCC’s ol’TPC during the period of about 1-2 weeks before and probably 2-3 weeks after the Champions Tour comes through each spring.  Its normally pretty nice putting at all our courses, just exceptional there around tourney week or when some qualifier or other tourneys are held.

I know that stats, be they PRO or AM, are still stats and folks love to quote them as gospel with less mentioned about sample & population sizes, distributions, bias, skew, analysis of variance, etc., let alone null hypotheses and probabilities.  I’ve worked and lived with big data, seeing 50 variables knocked down to a handful controlling and one still has to deal with error and uncertainty and that final caveat, “well that’s what the data predicts!”

I know that physics is physics, rooted in mechanical laws and all, with analysis of first and second derivatives of distance, F=MA, and conservation of momentum, pretty hard to argue on paper and it approaches perfect, but in real world living or playing, it’s the odd variable not on paper that gets ya.   I'd rather think could even be that Chesterfield Silly Millimeter versus 4 ft!

So, in the big picture, if I can get it rolling on the practice green, equivalent to about a foot or so past a target, I should be good on course, if I aim correctly.  The stick thing appears favorable and I know is quicker in my experience, so that's a dividend.

Play on, I've got a tee time...

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