[Erik J. Barzeski]

Leaving the pin in may change these numbers a bit, but here is some great research on "putting capture speed" . . . which clearly shows that the further past the hole your putt would have gone, the less margin for error you have to sink it.

Those numbers get a bit larger at stimp 12, of course, because what really matters is the speed of the ball at the hole. People have a hard time visualizing that, though, so the "effective width" of the hole is a reasonable way to show it to people.

(I would assume you know all of that, though, so I'm just repeating it on the off chance someone else here hadn't thought of it much.)

Dying the ball into the hole is still the way to go.  Just don't leave it short.

FWIW, inside of 12' or so, we advise amateurs not to leave any putts short, and outside of 25' or so we advise them to hit the putt the exact distance of the hole.

Amateurs leave far too many short putts short, and the few more putts you leave short on the longer ones will more than offset the ones you hit well past the hole and three-putt.

Here are some more stats from the PGA Tour:
In 2018, ~11,000 putts hit from 10'+ traveled 4'+ past the hole.

That doesn't count putts that lipped out and sat closer to the hole than 4', or putts that lipped out and went left or right. It only counts the number of putts on the PGA Tour in 2018 that were hit from 10'+ away and which finished behind the hole by 4'+.

That's a LOT of putts that could be affected by the flagstick being in. (Only a percentage of them will have contacted the flagstick, but given that pros miss high and low about 50% of the time… the distribution favors the middle… minus those that go in the hole, but those aren't counted in this 11,000 figure as they didn't go "past the hole.")

[Erik J. Barzeski]

That is an amazing article there, but they need to redo it in the light of leaving in the pin. The 0.065 seconds for the ball to drop more than halfway down the hole still applies, but the calculation becomes FAR more complex since that time will include some drop as the ball enters the hole, then a collision with the pin, and some further drop post-collision.

As well as the reduced distance the ball can be over the hole (i.e. in the air).

A thicker pin means the collision happens sooner, a thinner pin means there is more total time for the ball to drop. A pin that has a slight lean due to wind, not being properly seated or an improperly cut hole means the collision happens sooner or later depending on the direction of the lean relative to the direction the ball entered the hole. A pin made of a material that results in it absorbing more of the energy of the ball means the ball is moving more slowly post-collision. A collision at an angle means the ball will keep more of its energy when compared to a straight on collision. There are a ton of factors that influence the article's currently rather simple conclusion.

The article is from 2011 and isn't an exhaustive look at all putts going in the hole, with or without the flagstick.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ball manufacturers will soon try to take advantage of this rule change. A new ball with a very thin very soft outer cover to absorb some of the collision energy and increase the chance a putt stays in the hole.

I don't think they're going to change the way all the other shots in golf "work" for the very small benefits you're talking about here. It would absolutely affect putting, short game shots, etc.

Personally, I doubt that a study will conclusively answer the question

I don't know why you think that. I think a simple study could very conclusively determine that the flagstick is an advantage… as all the studies being done are demonstrating.

Thomas Pagel even said something about this in the WSJ article.

Thomas Pagel, senior director of rules and amateur status for the U.S. Golf Association, one of two worldwide rulemaking bodies, said the rule was changed on the assumption that it wouldn’t diminish the skill required to hole putts.

“If there was some kind of conclusive evidence that showed a significant advantage,” Pagel said, “I think we would have to go back and reevaluate it.”

I think they're gonna have to re-evaluate it, unless their definition of "significant" is different than most people's.

We also are seeing guys like Adam Scott who are leaving it in not because of the physical advantage, but the mental or psychological one on short putts. It helps him aim, and gives him more confidence. He's not hitting his four-foot putts six feet past the hole, but he is leaving it in because he feels it will help him make more putts in a way that a study couldn't really test.

Had the stick not been there, we all had 0 doubt that it would have gone in.

Just because you had zero doubt doesn't mean you're right.

[Doug Siebert]

I wouldn't be surprised if the ball manufacturers will soon try to take advantage of this rule change. A new ball with a very thin very soft outer cover to absorb some of the collision energy and increase the chance a putt stays in the hole.

I don't think they're going to change the way all the other shots in golf "work" for the very small benefits you're talking about here. It would absolutely affect putting, short game shots, etc.

I think you are underestimating how marketing driven the golf equipment market is. Snakeoil abounds, they are happy to claim a worthwhile benefit even for things that have no benefit, so something like this where the average golfer could understand the benefit being claimed more readily than 99% of ball/club claims would be easy to sell.

Especially since they will imagine it addressing their worst nightmare of leaving the pin in - a perfect putt that hits the stick "dead center" (i.e. what they think is dead center) but gets rejected. Something the average golfer will believe happens a lot more often than it actually does, since one tends to remember the unexpected (ball is rejected) pretty well while quickly forgetting the expected (ball hits pin and falls in)

[Peter Pallotta]

Q:
If the flag-in rule remains in place, do you think it will sooner or later provide the Tour and/or the USGA with a rationale for taking even more contours out of greens and speeding them up even further?

[JMEvensky]

Q:

If the flag-in rule remains in place, do you think it will sooner or later provide the Tour and/or the USGA with a rationale for taking even more contours out of greens and speeding them up even further?

It's more likely the PGAT/USGA will propose flagstick bifurcation--very thin flagsticks for high handicaps and thick flagsticks for elite players. They'll probably start selling flagsticks with smash factor and receptiveness ratings. Might even see flagsticks with multi-layer covers,

[Kalen Braley]

I think AG has it right....impending rules bifurcation. 


Mandatory for top level play, optional for the masses....

[jeffwarne]

Thomas Pagel even said something about this in the WSJ article.

Thomas Pagel, senior director of rules and amateur status for the U.S. Golf Association, one of two worldwide rulemaking bodies, said the rule was changed on the assumption that it wouldn’t diminish the skill required to hole putts.

“If there was some kind of conclusive evidence that showed a significant advantage,” Pagel said, “I think we would have to go back and reevaluate it.”

I think they're gonna have to re-evaluate it, unless their definition of "significant" is different than most people's.

Erik,
Given that Pelz's exhaustive pin research was done many years ago, how on earth could a governing body not have been aware of his conclusions?
and not recognize that leaving the pin in is and advantage.....


As far as the word "significant" that's EXACTLY the word they used for years in explaining away the annual one-three yard changes (always in the same direction) in driving distance, so they definitely have their own meaning of the word significant

[Erik J. Barzeski]

I think AG has it right....impending rules bifurcation.
Mandatory for top level play, optional for the masses....

I'd bet against that myself (though I wouldn't bet a lot). For things like this, that pretty severely impact the actual competition, they tend to want "The Rules" to be "The Rules." They'll allow for some little things to be modified, but not stuff that's inherent to how the game is played. This feels like one of those to me.

Given that Pelz's exhaustive pin research was done many years ago, how on earth could a governing body not have been aware of his conclusions?

Why are you asking me? I asked the same thing of the USGA/R&A for the past two years.

[Garland Bayley]

I left it in on a couple long putts where I was just trying to lag the ball up. I will say it clutters up the scene less to have someone else standing there tending the flag. But otherwise, I think I'm still going to take the flag out except on hellacious downhill putts.


Earnest excitement about the prospect of leaving a flagstick in to help hole more putts is yet more proof of the lengths golfers will go to to look anywhere but inward for the source of flaws in their game.

 
Science Tim, Science

[JESII]

Here are some more stats from the PGA Tour:
In 2018, ~11,000 putts hit from 10'+ traveled 4'+ past the hole.

That's a LOT of putts that could be affected by the flagstick being in. (Only a percentage of them will have contacted the flagstick, but given that pros miss high and low about 50% of the time… the distribution favors the middle…

This flirts with what I was talking about several pages ago so let's dig into this number a little bit.


11,000 putts finishing 4+ feet past the hole
Average of 130 (my estimate considering full field is 156 and several limited fields have far less) players per event means 84.6 of these per player.
Total of 50 events means 1.7 per player per event which equals 0.42 per round.


As I said, I hit plenty of putts well past the hole but extremely few of them would have hit the pin relatively square. I estimated 0.25 per year for me..or once every four years.


Even with distribution to the center, it still must be 90+% of these putts would not hit the hole...


So in the age of FedEx points, yes, you leave the pin in on all long putts and whenever it doesn't bother you but for regular folks...it doesn't matter enough to think about.

[Joe Leenheer]

Q:

If the flag-in rule remains in place, do you think it will sooner or later provide the Tour and/or the USGA with a rationale for taking even more contours out of greens and speeding them up even further?

It's more likely the PGAT/USGA will propose flagstick bifurcation--very thin flagsticks for high handicaps and thick flagsticks for elite players. They'll probably start selling flagsticks with smash factor and receptiveness ratings. Might even see flagsticks with multi-layer covers,

Bifurcation.....POOR ADAM SCOTT!!  Guy finally has something go in his direction and it might be ripped away from him again!

[Kalen Braley]

I think AG has it right....impending rules bifurcation.
Mandatory for top level play, optional for the masses....

I'd bet against that myself (though I wouldn't bet a lot). For things like this, that pretty severely impact the actual competition, they tend to want "The Rules" to be "The Rules." They'll allow for some little things to be modified, but not stuff that's inherent to how the game is played. This feels like one of those to me.

Erik,

I'm not sure if you're serious or not based on the new changes this year.  Is changing how one can handle OB or Lost balls "little" and not "inherent to how the game is played"? 

I would say those rule change have a much bigger impact to the game than the rare pin strike which may or may not turn out differently.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

I'm not sure if you're serious or not based on the new changes this year.  Is changing how one can handle OB or Lost balls "little" and not "inherent to how the game is played"?

I don't see those as being the same thing. They're close, I'd just draw the line somewhere between them.

The OB/Lost ball rule was a concession to the fact that very few people (i.e. almost nobody) returns to a tee box when playing a casual round of golf. This wouldn't be a "concession" of that sort IMO.


Further on that… serious players would again revert to taking the flagstick out, just like the pros would be doing (if your idea came to pass), while even a serious golfer often failed to go back to the tee in casual play. I may not be saying it well enough, but again, I just feel like these are different enough.

[Pat Burke]

There’s a better chance the tour encourages leaving it in
Rather than trying to make a rule to discourage it.


Flag in....no caddie tending.  More visibility for tv and gallery.
Gallery and tv at times cannot see the hole clearly, and the flag in
Will increase the viewing experience imo


Eventually leading to the OFFICIAL GLAGSTICK OF  THE PGA TOUR

[Paul Jones]

I have not taken the flag out yet and played 90 holes this weekend.

[Doug_Feeney]

Played in a 4 Ball today in AZ and one guy decided he was going to leave the flag in on every putt while the other three had the flag removed as they always had done - inside 30' or so.  It was annoying and slow! 


A constant dance of taking the flag out and putting it back in.  Completely contrary to the intent of the rule change.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

A constant dance of taking the flag out and putting it back in.  Completely contrary to the intent of the rule change.

Agree. We've been saying for over a year that it could actually slow play, and that the number of times you're ready to putt and nobody is available to tend the flag for you are much rarer than the USGA/R&A seemed to think.

It IS faster if EVERYONE just leaves it in… and just as fast 99% of the time if the flagstick only ever comes out once per green (like how almost everyone did it almost all the time in 2018).

[Tim Gallant]

In maybe the most unfortunate luck at North Berwick thus far in 2019, I watched our very own Ian Galbraith have an eagle putt denied by the flagstick on Saturday. There was no doubt to both of us that it would have gone in had the flag been out. It was dead centre and travelling at a good pace. I can only think that the stick was leaning slightly and hit the ball before it was able to get over the hole.


Don't feel too bad for him though. He waxed me on the course 5&4

[Garland Bayley]

In maybe the most unfortunate luck at North Berwick thus far in 2019, I watched our very own Ian Galbraith have an eagle putt denied by the flagstick on Saturday. There was no doubt to both of us that it would have gone in had the flag been out. It was dead centre and travelling at a good pace. I can only think that the stick was leaning slightly and hit the ball before it was able to get over the hole.


Don't feel too bad for him though. He waxed me on the course 5&4

My recollection of Dave Pelz study is that the only time you want to pull the flag is when it is leaning towards you.

[Doug Siebert]

In maybe the most unfortunate luck at North Berwick thus far in 2019, I watched our very own Ian Galbraith have an eagle putt denied by the flagstick on Saturday. There was no doubt to both of us that it would have gone in had the flag been out. It was dead centre and travelling at a good pace. I can only think that the stick was leaning slightly and hit the ball before it was able to get over the hole.


Don't feel too bad for him though. He waxed me on the course 5&4

My recollection of Dave Pelz study is that the only time you want to pull the flag is when it is leaning towards you.

The flags on courses that see a lot of wind are often quite a bit thicker such as Scottish & Irish links than what you find on most US courses, so it probably doesn't take much 'lean' before you get rejected. I think it would be worth it to walk to the hole and check the flag's position.

Rules question - if I was checking out my putt and felt the flag was leaning, could I remove and replace the flag hoping to correct the lean? What if I tried to deliberately lean the flag in the other direction?

[Erik J. Barzeski]

My recollection of Dave Pelz study is that the only time you want to pull the flag is when it is leaning towards you.

Nope. A flagstick leaning toward you actually helps you more - it deflects the ball downward and in. Pelz only said that you want to pull the flagstick if it's leaning so much that a ball won't fit.

https://www.golf.com/instruction/flag-or-out

Of course, there were variables in conditions, including imperfect green surfaces, the edges of the cup becoming ragged and worn, the hole being higher in back than in front and acting as a “backstop,” and so on. But over thousands and thousands of putts, these variables were more than compensated for. What did I learn? Leave the flagstick in whenever the Rules allow, unless it is leaning so far toward you that the ball can’t fit. Here are a few special cases:

Perhaps most surprising, when the flagstick leans either slightly toward the golfer or away, the odds of it helping to keep the ball in the hole increase: With the flagstick leaning away from the golfer, the hole becomes effectively larger; when the flagstick leans toward the golfer, the ball rebounds downward, again helping shots find the hole.

Rules question - if I was checking out my putt and felt the flag was leaning, could I remove and replace the flag hoping to correct the lean? What if I tried to deliberately lean the flag in the other direction?

You may straighten the flag or leave it as you found it. You cannot adjust it except to straighten it.

[JESII]

Maybe you're mind is stronger than mine, but the suggestion that a pin leaning towards me would help even more than a pin standing straight is completely irrational...which would completely eliminate the chance of making a good stroke.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

Maybe you're mind is stronger than mine, but the suggestion that a pin leaning towards me would help even more than a pin standing straight is completely irrational...which would completely eliminate the chance of making a good stroke.

By calling it a "suggestion" are you simply attempting to diminish that it's a fact? Do you think Dave Pelz and/or the others who have done these tests are lying?

Unless you have a different definition for the word than the accepted ones, it's not irrational. It makes sense.


With the flagstick leaning even as much as in B above, the ball is deflected downward into the hole.

Nobody's recommending you leave the flagstick in if you're presented with "C" - quite the opposite, take it out if it can't remain straightened - but if you're presented with B (from either side of the hole), your odds of holing the shot are better.

(Interestingly in 2019, C is considered holed. You no longer have to "straighten" the stick and let the ball fall to the bottom in 2019.)

If your mind prevents you from putting a good stroke on the ball because it can't accept a fact, well, that's beyond anything I really care to discuss.

[Kalen Braley]

Erik,

Not to put words in Jim's mouth, but in my experience, wind that causes B or C is rarely constant.  In reality that scenario would not be B or C, the stick would be toggling back and forth from those approx positions.

Hence taking the flagstick out would be my choice...

[Erik J. Barzeski]

Not to put words in Jim's mouth, but in my experience, wind that causes B or C is rarely constant.  In reality that scenario would not be B or C, the stick would be toggling back and forth from those approx positions.

Since when are we talking about wind?

I'll quote from here: https://lowestscorewins.com/tips/putting-with-the-flagstick-in

If the flagstick is leaning so much that a ball can’t fit or it’s moving around in the hole due to high winds, take it out from short range or have it tended from long range (the flagstick and the person tending it can help with distance perception).

Edit: I'll add that the two paragraphs after the link to Dave Pelz's article are FROM that article and FROM Dave Pelz, they're not my text/paragraphs.

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