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Kalen Braley

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Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #175 on: January 17, 2019, 04:39:43 PM »
I think John does make a good point here, even if its definitely not in the Religion and Politics bucket.

Just because you are meticulous and plan out what you test, does not make the results "valid".  A true test with verified results requires a lot of scrutiny, many people looking at it and contributing, others independently reproducing what you did, and tons of data points with highly controlled variables.

To get published in a scientific magazine is a very rigorous and lengthy process with tons of checkpoints.

Are we holding balls and pin hitting to the same level of scrutiny as the scientific method?  I can't imagine its anywhere near that, but none-the-less its cause for reasonable "doubts".

John Kavanaugh

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Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #176 on: January 17, 2019, 04:46:19 PM »
The three laws of physics have been dumbed down for the masses to the point that they aren't relevant in real world applications. No one wants to admit why a ball that for every reason known to man that should have gone in the hole finds itself sitting on the lip. The people smart enough to teach the truth need to spend their time on more important stuff. We are told just enough not to hurt ourselves. And if that doesn't correlate to religion and politics I don't know what does.

Erik J. Barzeski

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Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #177 on: January 17, 2019, 06:41:23 PM »
Oy.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #178 on: January 17, 2019, 08:51:17 PM »
You haven't participated in or watched many sports if you don't believe that factors outside of high school physics influence the ball. I got jinxed by a text during a game being played in another state the other day. The kid on the end of the bench could lose focus because his parents had a fight earlier in the day and cost his team a game. What the hell is momentum and why can't you fight it? Some people can will the ball in the hole and some people can't win for losing. All this comes back to the topic at hand. Sure, there will be times when you want the pin left in and times you want the pin tended. It's all a case by case basis and can't be replicated in the laboratory.




A.G._Crockett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #179 on: January 18, 2019, 08:59:17 AM »
I think John does make a good point here, even if its definitely not in the Religion and Politics bucket.

Just because you are meticulous and plan out what you test, does not make the results "valid".  A true test with verified results requires a lot of scrutiny, many people looking at it and contributing, others independently reproducing what you did, and tons of data points with highly controlled variables.

To get published in a scientific magazine is a very rigorous and lengthy process with tons of checkpoints.

Are we holding balls and pin hitting to the same level of scrutiny as the scientific method?  I can't imagine its anywhere near that, but none-the-less its cause for reasonable "doubts".
Kalen,

I take your point about validity, reliability, the scientific method, and the difficulty of controlling variables in something like putting.  I also agree that the result of a particular putt, whether the flag was in or out, doesn't tell us anything about what would have happened had the pin been in the other condition.  I think we'll all have to be satisfied with testing methods that are below scientific method requirements, not appropriate for scientific journal publication, and unlikely to rise to Nobel Prize levels.

All of that said and agreed upon, do you know of any results that anybody who is really doing the testing on this stuff that indicate that more balls go in the hole with the flag out?  Everything I've ever read, from the Pelz study on chipping 20 years ago, to Eric's stuff, to Pat Burke's stuff, to all other links that have shown up in this thread indicate that I will benefit from having the pin in.  If their testing methods were/are faulty, shouldn't we be seeing more variation or randomization in the results?  But we aren't; why is that? 


Newton's laws or motion and the law or gravity and all the rest of physics all point in the same direction on this question, don't they?  And the test results ALL at least seem to confirm that, don't they?  This doesn't seem particularly complex to me; the only nuance I see is the type of flagstick, and even then not much difference.  (And all of this ignores what I believe is the biggest benefit, which is leaving the flagstick in and unattended; a better, clearer, smaller target on long putts.)

This seems like a sort of Pascal's Wager of putting and flagsticks.  So I'll act as if the studies (and physics) are right and leave the pin in. 
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

JESII

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #180 on: January 18, 2019, 10:07:31 AM »
AG,


My position is that the likely impact is so small I don't really care and for the most part would pull the pin out due to the weak intellectual ability to not forget the otherwise good shots I've seen bounce off the pin and stay out.


That said, if the MyGolfSpy study proves at all accurate, and that 112.5% more putts going slowly into the just-off-center parts of the hole will go in with the pin in than out...well I may be dumb but I'm not stupid...

John Kavanaugh

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Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #181 on: January 18, 2019, 11:36:27 AM »
From a common sense standpoint, why aren't the best players in the world playing for the most money leaving the pin in? Could it be that they don't hit as many bad putts as amateurs where the pin will help. ie: They are awesome putters.

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #182 on: January 18, 2019, 11:56:54 AM »
Isn't it also amazing how some days the ball rolls differently than others. I've changed grips and had the ball roll more pure. When you get that special roll the ball dives in the hole. This has nothing to do with green conditioning as it will change on the same green from putt to putt.


Note: This site has a long history of believing that it is smarter about all things golf than the tour pros. Like Nicklaus doesn't get classic golf course strategy.


Oh, Congrats to Zac Blair on an outstanding tournament this weekend. I wish he would chip in on this topic.

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #183 on: January 18, 2019, 12:15:51 PM »
I did a google to see if the guys on the web.com were leaving the pin in like BDSB. I couldn't find any evidence either way but did run across this excellent article that explains why tour pros are awesome putters. It was a little long for me so I didn't make it all the way through but found this quote illuminating.


https://www.golf.com/knockdown/2017/03/20/when-really-really-good-isnt-good-enough-inside-one-golfers-attempt-live-his-dream


"On the 17th hole, sitting at even par for the day, I stared down a short putt with real consequences: If I made it, I would move into the top 10, in position to earn around $700—a pretty healthy first paycheck and a respectable return on my $400 entry fee. Unfortunately, only the top 10 pros would get paid, so if I missed the putt, I’d get skunked. I can get a little stiff over meaningful putts; my left elbow tightens up and I leave the face open a few degrees. I didn’t know this at the time, or else maybe I could have prevented what happened. I took a little too long over the ball, and sure enough it shot off the putter blade some two inches to the right of my target, tickling the outside lip but remaining rudely above ground. A routine par at the last cemented my fate. Despite my strong opening round, my play had earned me nothing."

The above is why the guy retired and is a scratch amateur just like us. He wasn't an awesome putter.

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #184 on: January 18, 2019, 12:26:34 PM »
AG,

Your last post is well stated and I've always maintained that I suspect its probably best to always leave the pin in, (even if the benefit is likely rare as Jim and I have pointed out) on what we know so far.

My only quibble, and it is a small one, is that there are very few actual facts that we "know".  Even something as seemingly set in stone as gravity, is still considered a scientific theory, and remains open to new inputs.

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #185 on: January 18, 2019, 12:31:02 PM »
From a common sense standpoint, why aren't the best players in the world playing for the most money leaving the pin in? Could it be that they don't hit as many bad putts as amateurs where the pin will help. ie: They are awesome putters.
Tour players aren't always the brightest strategists. They used to lay up to 120 yards, too, until they accepted that they'd shoot lower scores by getting the ball as close as possible to the green (as long as they could do so relatively safely).

And from inside 20-30 feet, given their leaves are at about 8% of the distance, they don't need the flag to help them. Inside of 3' by speed (almost 4' on Tour), the flagstick neither helps nor hurts. But beyond that, it helps… and yet Tour players take the flagstick out for some chips, and then they sometimes race by the hole, indicating that they should've left it in.

Keep beating the drum, man - the data is out there. PGA Tour players are only slightly better putters than scratch golfers. For all common definitions of "awesome" you're wrong.

Note: This site has a long history of believing that it is smarter about all things golf than the tour pros. Like Nicklaus doesn't get classic golf course strategy.
Tour pros though the path determined the starting direction of the ball, John, until we advanced our understanding. Tour players thought laying up to 120 was better than going for stuff. Justin Rose thought he had to spend one winter working on his wedges from 50-125… right up until Sean Foley looked up his stats and found that Justin was the best in the world for the yardages he was talking about.

From 20', a PGA Tour pro averages 1.87 putts. You know how many a scratch golfer averages? 1.89. A 90-golfer? 2.02. Put a Tour player and a 90 golfer 20 feet away from the hole 18 times in regulation and the Tour player shoots 69.66 and the 90-golfer shoots 72.36. 2.7 shots. And 10% of the time (since those are averages, there are ranges), the 90 golfer shoots a lower score than the Tour pro by out-putting him.

The scratch golfer, btw… if you can't do the math… shoots 70.02, 0.36 shots higher. And shoots a lower score than the Tour pro over 30% of the time.

AND those stats are compiled from PGA Tour players playing PGA Tour greens, and average golfers playing average greens. And you know what else other scientifically conducted studies have found? That players of all ability levels (excluding maybe those who can't break 110) putt better on faster greens. They three putt a bit more often, but they make more one-putts to more than off-set their three-putts. PGA Tour players have that advantage every week, while amateurs are playing slower, bumpier greens that require bigger strokes to send the ball the same distance and a greater likelihood that the ball will get bumped offline. Plus, they're often playing vastly different green speeds each time they play. Anyway, again, the study said that everyone putted measurably better (non-negligibly) by putting PGA Tour level greens than slower greens.

So:
  • The gap between PGA Tour players and average golfers is much narrower than many people believe it to be.
  • The gap shrinks further if average golfers were able to putt on PGA Tour type greens all the time.
Those are the facts, John, and you can close your eyes, plug your ears, and keep humming your tune, but it won't change the fact that if the PGA Tour converted to an all-putting Tour and kept purses the same, and opened qualifying for the new all-putting Tour to the world, you'd find that the odds of even a single current PGA Tour player making it through would be incredibly small.

But hey, keep blathering your nonsense John. Doesn't affect my life in the slightest, except for the added workouts to whatever muscles are used to roll my eyes, and the time it took to write this post (I type quickly, though).

My advice remains the same:
  • If the flagstick is leaning so much that a ball can’t fit* or it’s whipping around in the hole due to high winds, take it out from short range or have it tended from long range (the flagstick and the person tending it can help with distance perception). These situations are incredibly rare.
  • If you’re certain that you can control the ball speed to within about 3′ past the hole (at stimp 9.5), there’s no difference, so do whatever you like. A few of every hundred putts that would have gone in will be kept out, but about an equal number of putts that would have popped out will go in. There’s no real net advantage or disadvantage.
  • For every foot that your ball has the potential to roll further than 3′ past the hole, the advantage of leaving the flagstick in grows. Balls that would miss will go in or stay closer to the hole than they otherwise would have.
P.S. Kalen, "theory" does not mean the same thing in science as it does outside of science. C'mon man. And I've been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, and have two degrees in the sciences (along with one in French). I wouldn't have changed much about my own tests of over 2,000 balls rolled to make it perfectly acceptable to the scientific community, had that been a desire of mine.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

MCirba

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #186 on: January 18, 2019, 12:44:39 PM »
My worst yip ever came on the uphill, par four 3rd hole of the Metacomet CC (RI).   

I was playing with some nice folks I just met from the "Walking Golfers Society" and after a good drive and 8-iron approach to 15 feet right of the hole my first putt broke towards the front of the green more than I bargained but left me about 2 feet from the hole, putting uphill.

In what could only be described as a St. Vitus tremor, I stubbed the putter into the ground and reflexively realized I needed to accelerate to even strike the ball, which sent it cascading uphill about 15 feet past the hole.    :-\

It wouldn't have mattered if the pin was in or not, methinks.

On the other hand, to John Kavanaugh's point that there are often factors beyond basic physics involved in golf, and to show that all's well that ends well, I was 8 over through 7 holes when I spied a young lady selling beverages near the 8th tee and after a Bloody Mary, and perhaps another one around the 15th hole, I finished the round with an 81.    ;D
"Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent" - Calvin Coolidge

https://cobbscreek.org/

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #187 on: January 18, 2019, 12:46:10 PM »
There have been millions upon millions of rounds of golf played in the last 400 years and not once has any golfer had 18 20 foot putts for birdie in a single round. les joueurs de la tournée sont des putters géniaux

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #188 on: January 18, 2019, 12:49:48 PM »
Erik

I am aware of that, hence the use of "scientific theory" in my post.

P.S.  I appreciate your use of the word advice in your last post, because that's what it is...not an absolute that has been presented for most of the prior posts in this thread.

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #189 on: January 18, 2019, 12:55:59 PM »
There have been millions upon millions of rounds of golf played in the last 400 years and not once has any golfer had 18 20 foot putts for birdie in a single round.
OMG NO WAY! You completely disproved the points I was making!!! OMFG you're a genius.

Close your eyes, plug your ears, and hum your tune John.

P.S.  I appreciate your use of the word advice in your last post, because that's what it is...not an absolute that has been presented for most of the prior posts in this thread.
I haven't presented what people should DO as an absolute. I've only said that the flagstick, overall, offers an advantage. It does. Doesn't mean you need to leave it in if you're certain you're not going to hit the putt too hard. I also think I've linked to my advice before.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

JESII

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #190 on: January 18, 2019, 01:15:25 PM »
So Erik, what do you think of the MyGolfSpy result of 40% of putts going three feet by go in when entering just off center and no pin versus 85% with the pin in is a realistic result?

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #191 on: January 18, 2019, 01:48:44 PM »
So Erik, what do you think of the MyGolfSpy result of 40% of putts going three feet by go in when entering just off center and no pin versus 85% with the pin in is a realistic result?
What do you think, since you seemed surprised at the capture speed numbers I gave you above?

I don't like a few things about their test, even though their numbers were pretty consistent with what I've seen:
  • They only did 20 putts per "situation."
  • They didn't specify what "off center" meant.
  • They rolled the ball from pretty far away (looks like five feet or so). The ball can wiggle left or right quite a bit from even five feet.
When I did my testing I rolled the balls from just under 18" away, and I used a laser and rolled balls at 0" to 1" off-center every 1/4". I also only rolled balls at speeds 3-6' by the hole, because I thought 7-9' it should be pretty freaking obvious, and because people rarely hit putts 7-9' past the hole. Putts as little as 3/4" off the hole with the flagstick out will miss pretty often going only 3' past the hole.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

JESII

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #192 on: January 18, 2019, 01:54:30 PM »
At what stimp reading?


I think you'll agree we can start talking about ball speed versus distance?


In 100 years of playing, I can't think of two putts that were going 3' by that hit right or left center (not lip outs) and didn't go in...

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #193 on: January 18, 2019, 02:13:08 PM »
At what stimp reading?
Tell me this: at what minimum stimp do you think a putt hit 1" off-center and at 3' by speed goes in?

I think you'll agree we can start talking about ball speed versus distance?
Not really, no, because people are pretty bad at understanding the difference between 3.1 MPH and 2.5 MPH. Distance by isn't ideal for a lot of reasons, but at least people "get" it. They can see it in their minds more easily.

In 100 years of playing, I can't think of two putts that were going 3' by that hit right or left center (not lip outs) and didn't go in...
I don't know what "right or left center bu not a lip out" means. Any putt that doesn't first cross over the hole pretty close to 3 o'clock or 9 o'clock is "right center" or "left center" a little bit because, for a brief moment, the ball is not touching grass.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

JESII

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #194 on: January 18, 2019, 02:25:01 PM »
Erik, we're on page 8...the 30,000 foot view to make it easier for the people is good on page 1 and 2. You know as well as anyone that a ball going slightly downhill on an 12' stimp green that would end up 3' by will also go into just about all 4.25 inches of the cup. Similarly, an uphill putt on 6' stimp green is probably able to fly over the hole and still stop in 3'.


So - "right or left center but not a lip out" is defining where the ball entered the hole. It's not on the lip because you've already stated that the ball can fit between the lip and the pin so the pin isn't helping lip ins/outs. This is a ball somewhere between that and the center. I go with right Center and Left Center...do you have a different term?


That study is saying that more than double the number of putts going 3 feet past the hole would go in the right or left center if the pin is in versus out...17 to 8. It sounds like you're going to assume they call it Off-Center and in reality the ball is lipping out!?!

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #195 on: January 18, 2019, 02:53:09 PM »
This is an interesting study: https://www.better-golf-by-putting-better.com/ball-speed.html


If Erik is testing from 18" he is trying to make putts during the acceleration phase on each putt. No wonder his tests miss so many putts without the pin. He has almost completely illimated the effects of friction from his testing. He is basically shooting bullets.

JESII

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #196 on: January 18, 2019, 02:57:33 PM »
And we all know bullets don't bend...

John Kavanaugh

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Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #197 on: January 18, 2019, 03:02:05 PM »
In all honesty Erik's study holds value for me. I now know that as long as I don't hit my 18 inch putts more than a foot by the hole the pin won't hurt me. That will save me both effort and time. Merci mon pote!!!

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #198 on: January 18, 2019, 03:09:16 PM »
If Erik is testing from 18" he is trying to make putts during the acceleration phase on each putt. No wonder his tests miss so many putts without the pin. He has almost completely illimated the effects of friction from his testing. He is basically shooting bullets.
John, no wonder physics are like religion to you - you seem to actually think that there's an "acceleration phase" after a ball is hit by a putter.  ???

You know as well as anyone that a ball going slightly downhill on an 12' stimp green that would end up 3' by will also go into just about all 4.25 inches of the cup.
That depends on what you mean by "about all." The hole gets pretty small pretty quickly.

BTW the answer to the question was stimp 12. At anything less, assuming a relatively level surface, the ball won't go in when it's as little as 1" off center.

So - "right or left center but not a lip out" is defining where the ball entered the hole.
Jim, that's nowhere near precise enough. There's about 1.5"+ of space that you could consider "right or left of center but not a lip-out."

It's not on the lip because you've already stated that the ball can fit between the lip and the pin so the pin isn't helping lip ins/outs. This is a ball somewhere between that and the center. I go with right Center and Left Center...do you have a different term?
When talking about it like this? Of course - see below.

That study is saying that more than double the number of putts going 3 feet past the hole would go in the right or left center if the pin is in versus out...17 to 8. It sounds like you're going to assume they call it Off-Center and in reality the ball is lipping out!?!
Why would it "sound like" that at all? Did you not see the part where one of my biggest issues with that test was that "They didn't specify what "off center" meant."?

Who knows what they mean by that. But if they were operating near the edge of where a putt will and won't go in, then the results might make sense.

I didn't conduct their tests. In my tests, I did these (not the 1.09" one - that's the limit of when even the flagstick theoretically touches the ball), plus dead on the center, which I didn't feel the need to illustrate:



This is going nowhere, and again, I really don't care if you take the flagstick out or leave it in, nor do I care much about what you think your experiences have been. I've shared information, I've shared my advice based on that information, and none of this has much at all to do with the topic of the forum: GCA.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Have you left the flag in?
« Reply #199 on: January 18, 2019, 03:18:02 PM »
Erik,


Have you ever watched a slow motion replay of a putted ball? It isn't even rolling yet for most of the first 18 inches. It's barely even on the ground.

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