John,
Thanks for the strength link. It's a bit depressing that I'm now in the 3% loss a year age group. Sadly, I can feel it. As more anecdotal evidence, my swing speed 15 years ago was between 100 and 105 mph. Now it is somewhere around 95 mph - so a loss of maybe 10%. The distance loss is noticeable to me and is around 20 yards with a driver.
I've never seen any data about how much distance on average we would lose as we age. It certainly wouldn't have been 40%, absent any technology, optimization, technique improvements, I don't think. If I drove the ball 230 yards 50 years ago, it's hard to imagine that I would only hit it 140 yards now. In fact I have a persimmon driver with a steel shaft that I can still hit about 200 yards, if I hit it on the screws. Even with a very old balata ball.
On the other hand, with modern technology and optimization I've probably only lost 10 yards from my prime, 50 years ago, so there is no doubt in my mind that technology, optimization and agronomy has helped me stay not too far from where I was a long time ago distance-wise. Having said that, I don't personally feel any need to roll back the ball. My home courses over the last 20 years were modern courses all over 7200 yards (where virtually nobody plays). None of them needed to be lengthened. I've been stuck playing around 6000 to 6400 yards my whole life, and I'd like to stay there as long as possible.
I can't imagine any scenario where the PGA Tour would unilaterally create a shorter competition ball, therefore I think that bifurcation is a non-starter.
I have never played any of the classic private American courses and probably never will in my life time, so I'm not too distressed if the memberships of those courses want to mess with their courses to remain "relevant" to a small cadre of elite golfers.
There are no sports that are played the same way today as they were 50 years ago. At home we have a channel dedicated to the Maple Leafs hockey team that regularly shows vintage hockey game from as far back as the '60's. Watching them vs today's game is ridiculous. The players are significantly bigger, faster and more skilled now. The arenas are the same size though.
I was kind of curious about what precipitated Slumbers line in the sand comments. Was it the uptick in 2017 driving distance, which by the way looks like it will continue into 2018? Or the number of 300+ yard drivers on the tour (69 so far)? Or, something else?
Looking at the report, I was struck by the following table.
The uptick from '16 to '17 can be accounted for by a 1 mph increase in club speed and resulting 1 mph increase in ball speed with a 1* higher launch angle and continuing low spin rate.
So, why did the average club and ball speed go up. The following graph shows 10 long distance drivers on the PGA Tour over the last 5 years (including 2018) As you can see they are all over the place from year to year. So, it wasn't the prime age group who have been around for at least 5 years that caused the uptick. If you look at the current list of 69 300+ yard hitters there are a bunch of names I'm not familiar with - guys who are new to the tour in the last year, almost all young, almost all tall and almost all flexible and strong. Guys like: Trey Mullinax, Kevin Tway, Keith Mitchell. Tom Lovelady, Hao Tong Li, Grayson Murray, Matt Jones, Sam Burns, Cody Gribble, Maverick McNealy, Rick Lamb, Aaron Wise, Adam Schenk, Corey Connors, Brandon Harkins, Matt Atkins, Talor Gooch, Stephan Jaeger, and Bronson Burgoon. Success in getting on tour is going to the long hitters. There are just more of them, not that the technology is somehow increasing the distance on tour.