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Tim Liddy

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The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« on: January 28, 2018, 10:50:42 AM »
The latest thread on Ross's top 100 golf courses has me thinking about The Principle of Unequal Distribution and its application to Golf Course Architecture. Plus it is a good introduction to a student thinking about becoming a golf course architect. I quote from Jordon Peterson's 12 Rules for Life:

"The top 1 percent have as much loot as the bottom 50 percent — and where the richest eighty-five people have as much as the bottom three and a half billion.

That same brutal principle of unequal distribution applies outside the financial domain— indeed, anywhere that creative production is required. The majority of scientific papers are published by a very small group of scientists. A tiny proportion of musicians produces almost all the recorded commercial music. Just a handful of authors sell all the books. A million and a half separately titled books (!) sell each year in the US. However, only five hundred of these sell more than a hundred thousand copies. Similarly, just four classical composers (Bach, Beethoven, Mozart, and Tchaikovsky) wrote almost all the music played by modern orchestras. Bach, for his part, composed so prolifically that it would take decades of work merely to hand-copy his scores, yet only a small fraction of this prodigious output is commonly performed. The same thing applies to the output of the other three members of this group of hyper-dominant composers: only a small fraction of their work is still widely played. Thus, a small fraction of the music composed by a small fraction of all the classical composers who have ever composed makes up almost all the classical music that the world knows and loves.

This principle is sometimes known as Price’s law, after Derek J. de Solla Price, the researcher who discovered its application in science in 1963. It can be modeled using an approximately L-shaped graph, with number of people on the vertical axis, and productivity or resources on the horizontal. The basic principle had been discovered much earlier. Vilfredo Pareto (1848– 1923), an Italian polymath, noticed its applicability to wealth distribution in the early twentieth century, and it appears true for every society ever studied, regardless of governmental form. It also applies to the population of cities (a very small number have almost all the people), the mass of heavenly bodies (a very small number hoard all the matter), and the frequency of words in a language (90 percent of communication occurs using just 500 words), among many other things. Sometimes it is known as the Matthew Principle (Matthew 25: 29), derived from what might be the harshest statement ever attributed to Christ: “to those who have everything, more will be given; from those who have nothing, everything will be taken.”

So how does this apply to Golf Course Architecture? Who are the "tiny proportion" of golf course architects, the hyper-dominant?

I propose:
-Ross
-Mackenzie
-Dye


Tim Liddy

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2018, 11:08:37 AM »
It also applies to locations of the best golf courses in the world.


I offer:
Long Island, New York
Melbourne, Australia
London, England

Tim Martin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2018, 11:13:42 AM »
I think Tom Fazio fits the bill on the architect side and the Southwest Coast of Ireland on the location side.

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +2/-1
Re: The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2018, 11:26:56 AM »
Fazio, Trent Jones, Nicklaus ...


The principle of unequal distribution in modern golf architecture [or modern anything] has way more to do with $$$ than with art.

Peter Pallotta

Re: The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2018, 11:30:52 AM »
What a good and interesting post, Tim.

It seems timely too, what with the focus so much these days on renovations/restorations of older courses.

To those that have everything (i.e. a club with a full & wealthy membership; a course designed by one of the golden age greats; a good measure of pre-existing reputation and prestige) more will be given (i.e. attention and care and resources by and from the members; famous and top flight architects lobbying for the chance to work on the course; careful and precise restoration work that honours the original architect's original vision, all resulting in higher rankings and more prestige and a waiting-list for new members); while from those that have nothing (a merely decent course from the over-built 80s, by an architect who has fallen out of fashion, with aging memberships and decreasing rounds/green fees, and debt from trying to improve the situation by building a massive new clubhouse), even what little they have will be taken away (i.e. the eking out of profit margins by decreasing maintenance budgets and other cost-cutting measures proving increasingly ineffective as ever more golfers migrate -- and spend the bulk of their golf dollars to/on -- better/more desirable clubs or destination courses like the revitalized Mid Pines/Pine Needles or new places like Streamsong, and the course is sold to a housing developer).   

It's indeed a harsh world. I sometimes wonder how many of the wonderful tier-two/average golden age English courses that Sean profiles would've survived for the 80 or 90 or 100 years (or even only 20!) that they have if they'd been built nowadays instead of back then. 

Peter   
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 11:41:30 AM by Peter Pallotta »

Jeff Schley

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Re: The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2018, 12:35:24 PM »
Tim you are starting to sound like some of the consultants my company hires, citing Price's Law. Ranking systems in my view have inherent bias largely, but not limited to, the following:

First Mover's Advantage - Who was first into the segment?  Whoever this was has a significant advantage for branding and possibly creating a status quo if powerful enough. Because the earlier golf course designers were creating courses when only a handful existed and it took a great deal of resources to build and maintain, the proponent for the courses cherished them and many were championed by wealthy influential people/clubs.  Thus they have the first mover's advantage, and the status quo bias, which I'll talk about next.

Status Quo Bias - Anyone who has taken a basic psychology class has heard of SQB.  It is the safe option, the established option, the way we have always done it option.  Any choice other than the SQ is seen as less valuable and risky. It is mental, it is in your head.  It is also why companies around the world spend millions of dollars for Change Management.  We have to prepare people for the change coming and just saying this is what we want you to do is not enough, there is a science and subsequent process behind it. My company has a whole department of over 100 people just doing this, believe it or not.

In the golf rankings example Tim is pointing out, I think we can apply a strong bias as you look at the yearly rankings.  It is almost like once your in, your in. It is tough to boot out a course that is designed by Mackenzie, Ross, etc. why?  Because they have first movers advantage and have established themselves as the status quo for various reasons (lack of competition, got designs at the first private clubs, etc.). To get them out of the rankings will be risky and the SQB tells us that is tough to do, even if it is warranted.

Brand Premium -  In investing when one company buys another for more than their tangible assets, i.e. I buy Microsoft and they have facilities, machinery, hardware worth 5 billion, but also have 25 billion worth of customer base, I.P., etc. of intangible assets that difference in accounting is called Goodwill.  I like to refer to it as a brand premium, because it is easier to understand.

In golf course design intellectual property is huge, because doing the work can be done by many construction companies, but whose ideas are you going to use? The designer adds little value tangibly, but his ideas (I.P.) are what the client is paying for. If the designers in our case had First Mover's Advantage to get Status Quo Bias, then they have earned their Brand Premium (goodwill) in the market's eye. Thus, they can get more for their services. 

They are then recognized on the rankings as where they are today, which is at the top of the heap. I can give you another example, College Football recruiting rankings. Is the player that wasn't ranked before he got an offer from Notre Dame, now all the sudden a top 100 player? Notre Dame is seen as a Brand Premium and if they are going to offer a scholarship to John Doe, then he must be good.  It is a self fulfilling prophecy.  Are all courses designed by Mackenzie great? Well some would say yes absolutely, it's a Mackenzie. 

So great discussion and I love having to think critically and come up with a viewpoint.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 12:40:26 PM by Jeff Schley »
"To give anything less than your best, is to sacrifice your gifts."
- Steve Prefontaine

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2018, 01:16:04 PM »
I don't know if this is really applicable in golf design.


There are what, 20k+ courses in the world?  Has 1% of the golf course architects built half of them?  I'm guessing not.




Mike_Young

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2018, 03:43:49 PM »
Tim,
Seems to me that in golf the standard is set by the very upper tier of courses whether it be maintenance, clubhouse or design.  And then the industry tries to convince the other tiers of courses that they need to maintain that standard. It's great for the industry but does not bode well for the courses.   Whereas in an economy the upper 1% do not set the standard for the rest.  They stay in a world to themselves. 
"just standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona"

Jeff_Brauer

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Re: The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2018, 06:56:26 PM »

Mike,


It would be interesting to know if that Augusta influence really filters down from the top 1%, to maybe the top 10%?  While I agree everyone wants the best maintenance they can get, very few of my clients over the years have dramatically stretched their budget to get it, either in construction (with possible exception of bunker liners) or maintenance.


And, it is always amazing to me the difference some supers get out of their limited crew and budget. Our mutual friend, Roger Cagle being one of the good ones.  That man could get more out of a $400K budget and limited crew than many could get out of twice that.


Just my perspective.
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

Mike_Young

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: The Principle of Unequal Distribution
« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2018, 07:24:13 PM »

Mike,


It would be interesting to know if that Augusta influence really filters down from the top 1%, to maybe the top 10%?  While I agree everyone wants the best maintenance they can get, very few of my clients over the years have dramatically stretched their budget to get it, either in construction (with possible exception of bunker liners) or maintenance.


And, it is always amazing to me the difference some supers get out of their limited crew and budget. Our mutual friend, Roger Cagle being one of the good ones.  That man could get more out of a $400K budget and limited crew than many could get out of twice that.


Just my perspective.

Jeff,
We are seeing the same thing.  I'm trying to say that vendors don't create a substantial difference in what they sell the top and the bottom.  For instance the sofa or chair the top 1% of the population would purchase might be 20,000 bucks or more and yet the bottom 50% can get a functional piece from Rooms Are Us for $500 bucks.  Now take a greensmower that is 44,000 bucks now...that sme piece gets sold to the rest of the market when the vendor could easily build a much simler new machine with half of the trimmings and have it work.  AND don't get me started on irrigation.....Just like the car business....JMO
"just standing on a corner in Winslow Arizona"

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