[Marty Bonnar]

Springing totally selfishly off The Coul Links thread, I do begin to wonder if we are at, or already beyond, the limit of development we need in Scotland.
We seem to have reached a point where chunks of our landscape are being turned into Courses just for the craic.
Remember, there’s what, around 600 in our teeny country already - sited on a huge variety of landscapes, developed for a very wide range of audiences and budgets, with already dwindling memberships, blah, blah, blahdeblah.
Personally, I think I’m done. Enough already, let’s spend time and money on the good and great ones we’ve got and make them all they can be. Concentrate on ensuring we give Golf a future by encouraging our kids and stop building rich men’s private playgrounds.
There we are. Cat, Pigeons, set amongst - and off we go!
Cheers,
F.

[MClutterbuck]

If investors are willing to create great couses, why not allow that and also allow the worst to fail, and go on to better uses? Maybe some even can be turned into preservation areas...

[jeffwarne]

If investors are willing to create great couses, why not allow that and also allow the worst to fail, and go on to better uses? Maybe some even can be turned into preservation areas...

It's not always the worst that fail-sadly.


Speaking from a US point of view, every time a modern monstrositty is built, it siphons away the wealthiest members from older, often more classic courses. Engineers would be a classic example.

[MClutterbuck]

Jeff, I agree that not all change is for good, but in the long term it should cause improvement. Of course, the length of the ball aside.

[Ian Mackenzie]

I️ Forget the most recent stats, but recall reading that Scottish golf tourism was a significant part of the economy.


Have to respect a nationals’ point of view, but you may want to have a word with these guys in Edinburgh:


https://www.scottishgolf.org/golf-tourism-strategy-targets-300m-value/

Who say:


It signals an intent to capitalise on major events being held in Scotland during the next few years, including The 2014 Ryder Cup and The Open Championship in 2015 and 2016, with the aim of enhancing Scotland’s reputation as the Home of Golf and becoming the world’s leading golf destination by 2020.

The strategy has been developed to build on the strong foundations of activity from the industry, governing bodies and the public sector. As a result of implementing the strategy, it is hoped to grow the industry’s current £220 million annual value to the Scottish economy by 20 per cent to around £300 million annually by 2020.
Then look at a business that has grown 30%, at least that’s what these guys say:
]http://www.scotsman.com/business/companies/media-leisure/value-of-golf-tourism-to-scotland-soars-by-30-per-cent-1-4425244

How many projects are currently underway or have been completed in the last 5 years?

Who’s really chasing the opportunity here: Scots or developers or both?

[Peter Pallotta]

Well, Marty, few will agree with you here. But here's a stat for your back-pocket, in case you need to provide folks with some context.
Scotland covers about 80,000 sq km. 
Ontario covers over 1 million sq km.
Let's grant that Ontario needn't have 10 times the number of courses that Scotland has (given our relative sizes); but when you learn that Scotland has over 600 courses while Ontario has just about 800 it does provide a clear indication of how literally jam-packed with golf courses Scotland already is.
Especially given that Ontario also has about 2.5 times Scotland's population (13.8 million to 5.5 million). 
Which is to say, don't let anyone convince you that you're talking nonsense. There is a decent argument to be made that Scotland does indeed already have enough golf courses.
PS - Let's not mention that Scotland also already has many of the greatest and most famous golf courses in the world; people will simply argue that there's always room for one more truly great course, which Coul Links must surely be. (I know it will be - the major publications are already drafting up the articles and press releases that say so....)
Peter

[Sean_A]

Of course Scotland doesn't need another course; it didn't need the last five major designs.  It is a sign of the times...much like housing.  It is easier and seen as more desirable to build new houses on land which requires all new infrastructure rather than look to refurb existing city units...you know, where there are jobs and transport.


Ciao

[Ian Mackenzie]

.

[Rich Goodale]

Peter P.


With all due respect, I have a Hudson Bay blanket in my closet that has as much linksland as any of those 1 billion square miles of Ontario to which you reference.


 Marty


You are generally right.  Scotland is littered with decent golf courses that are significantly underutilized.  That being said, there are huge numbers of empty linksland that could be made into great golf courses.  The dunes across the bay from Durness GC, the northern lochs near Tongue and the land between Golspie and Coull links (now a go cart facility) come immediately to mind.  But...


...how do you get there and what amenities will need to be created and how to make any of them economically viable?


Maybe if global warming does its thing and Sutherland becomes the Northern Riviera and Hudson Bay is found to be full of linksland accessible from the Northern Passage all could change, but not in my lifetime.


rfg

[Adrian_Stiff]

The simple answer is, yes and it has about 100 too many now.


It certainly does not need any more courses to appease Scottish or even British golfers but if somebody thinks it can make a turn by building for the American market then maybe, it is not a market I am really familiar or can understand the rationale and I can only think of downsides like currency, air travel as interfering possible problems with that model. I also think the 'tourist' market wants to see the old ones first. Fife is the definitive visit, perhaps Ayrshire, East Edinburgh being next, would the Aberdeen area be next?


It certainly helps with Castle Stuart, Trump and Dornoch close enough. It has to be super good though and I am not doubting it will be.


What has happened to the new course just outside St Andrews I think it was a Weiskopf? I last drove by two/three years ago maybe and it looked getting near finished. The business plan looked cack to me and I assume they got limited takers.


Last time I was at Kingsbarns they told me the Castle course had taken a lot of its business, is that still the same? They said the Castle course was priced inside KB.


Whilst the better courses often fail financially they don't so often get ploughed back up, they just re-exist on the continued second mouse theory until it finds the right financial model which is usually dictated close to the local market prices.

[Tim Gallant]

Martin,


As others have said, I think it is somewhere in the middle in that there are probably too many golf courses for the population of Scotland to enjoy a game (and a cheaply at that), but there is the tourist dollar, which probably hasn't been 100% maximised (although it is getting close).

[Niall C]

Martin
 
If you used the numbers argument for housing and cars we would likely all still be living in cramped housing with no central heating and outside toilets and driving Model T Fords. People will always want to build bigger (unfortunately) and better.
 
The question I have is are the new high end (they are nearly all high end) displacing the community based members clubs or are the members clubs struggling for other reasons ? By community based members clubs I’m not referring to the Troons, Dornochs and Prestwicks with their national and international memberships. I’m referring to the vast majority of clubs that the tourists have never heard of never mind played.
 
I’m much more concerned about their survival than whether Bill Coore gets to add Scotland to his CV. There won’t be many of those clubs with courses that could be called truly great but I’ll bet there will be a high proportion of those courses with some really interesting, some very good and even great golf as well as the mundane and the “bad”. I’d hate to lose those courses just to make the numbers add up.
 
Niall

[Adrian_Stiff]

Niall - I think those course you mention will survive or cease regardless of any 'big development'.

[Simon Holt]

Lots to reply to here:


Ian,


The recent visitor numbers are positively inflated by the exchange rate.  Demand from the international market is as high as I can remember and people aren't shy about spending more in £GBP than they would before; given that absolute value is either the same or less in their own currency. 


Anything that Scottish Golf issues as a strategy at the moment needs to be taken with a health warning that the organisation is in a state of flux.  I'm not sure how much involvement they have on international marketing of the collective "product" of the Scottish courses as that is more the domain of Visit Scotland.  I've certainly not seen any evidence of SG getting involved.


The course can only be a good thing for Highland visitor numbers, I'm just not sure it will keep many in Dornoch specifically for any longer than they stay now.


Marty,


I can't see the addition of another high ticket course affect the club membership plight.  This certainly is the domain of Scottish Golf and is a bit of a worry, to say the least.  We could talk about that for hours!


Golf needs to be pushed in schools at a grass roots level and that will feed into the clubs.  For the first time since the establishment of a junior membership at North Berwick and Tantallon, they are joining forces to have a combined West Links Junior section due to both sections being so poorly subscribed to.  Two clubs that now have waiting lists touching 5 years.  Unthinkable when I was growing up.


Adrian,


Feddinch is the development are I think you are citing outside St Andrews.  No idea about that but nothing there as it stands other than a few holes that seem to have gone to pasture where "finished" and merely roughed out holes in other areas.


As far as Kingsbarns and Castle I'm surprised that anyone at KB said that to you about the Castle taking away visitors.  KB is flying!  Booked solid most days and their price is going up next year by over 10%.








I have no doubt Coul Links will be a success as a course but if it is priced in the Castle Stuart, Trump Aberdeen and Kingsbarns brackets then it will be high end, predominantly US targeted play. To an extent, nothing wrong with that either, they are businessmen.


BUT that requires a significant increase in luxury accommodation to keep that level of clientele in Dornoch for longer than 1/2 nights within a week long trip.  In that sense, I hope some investment in the town's lodging is forthcoming so Coul Links is a success in the way the locals want it to be.  Keeping the spenders there for longer! 


I guess it depends how we are measuring success - how highly ranked the course is or does it keep people in Dornoch for longer?  If the latter part of the question extends to the Highlands then I'm sure it will be a success, I'm yet to be convinced it will keep huge numbers of people in Dornoch itself for any longer than Royal Dornoch does, as it stands.


We are not talking about the likes of me and the other GB&I golfers, or savvy/thrifty international golfers that frequent GCA.  We're talking about guys who want a big comfy bed, a powerful shower in a big bathroom, a big room that they can spread all their gear out in and top class service to match great food.


As a complete aside, members at a place like Skibo will be loving this.  Another world class course within 15 minutes of their very nice doorstep.

[Adam Lawrence]

I'm pretty sure Feddinch is dead. The developer started building the golf course with no planning consent in place for a clubhouse, having antagonised the local council -- not a smart move. His model was super high end private, with memberships more expensive than Queenwood, Wisley or Beaverbrook (which are all on the edge of London, where live A LOT of rich people). I never quite got my head round why someone would pony up a huge sum of money for a membership in St Andrews with no preferential access to the Old Course.


As to whether Scotland has enough golf courses, with respect to Marty, it's a pretty silly question. 'Scotland' is not one market, and 'Scottish golf' covers a whole lot of ground from a nine holer in a little village with an honesty box to the super high end stuff like Skibo. Yes, it is a continuum, but Traigh GC and the Carnegie Club are not in any sense competitors.


A better question is whether there is demand in a particular locality for more golf. Then you get into the issue of where the golfers might come from -- how many will be local, how many tourist, from where? But the truth of the matter is that demand is a secondary issue in the development of the recent high end Scottish courses. Trump Aberdeen, Coul Links, Castle Stuart and the like were not built because of demand, they are examples of supply creating demand. They were built because the people behind them wanted to build a golf course in Scotland. Yes, of course there needs to be demand if they are to survive. But fundamentally they were not built to satisfy existing demand.

[Marty Bonnar]

Gents,
Thanks for such reasoned, balanced discussion. Much food for thought.
My OP was partly caused by Scottish Golf’s recent woes and from careful reading of this KPMG Benchmark report:


http://static.golfbenchmark.com/media/3/0/2/7/3027.pdf


You may have to register to view it, but worthwhile and highly informative of the detail behind the state of Scottish and British/Irish golf in general.


Cheers,
F.

[David_Tepper]

Simon -

Thanks for your helpful and informative post.

Do you (or anyone else) have a sense of what the breakdown in play at courses like Kingsbarns and Castle Stuart is between locals, traveling golfers from within the UK and visitors from abroad (North America & Europe)?

I suspect that the percentage of play from the first two groups is higher than one would think.

DT

[Marty Bonnar]

David,
While I don’t have exact figures, your suspicions (for Kingsbarns at least) are very wrong!
Cheers,
M.

[David_Tepper]

Marty -

I should have said I have never been to Kingsbarns! I have been to Castle Stuart 5-6 times.

What is your guesstimate on how the play at Kingsbarns breaks down between those 3 groups?

DT   

[jeffwarne]

As to whether Scotland has enough golf courses, with respect to Marty, it's a pretty silly question. 'Scotland' is not one market, and 'Scottish golf' covers a whole lot of ground from a nine holer in a little village with an honesty box to the super high end stuff like Skibo. Yes, it is a continuum, but Traigh GC and the Carnegie Club are not in any sense competitors.

A better question is whether there is demand in a particular locality for more golf. Then you get into the issue of where the golfers might come from -- how many will be local, how many tourist, from where? But the truth of the matter is that demand is a secondary issue in the development of the recent high end Scottish courses. Trump Aberdeen, Coul Links, Castle Stuart and the like were not built because of demand, they are examples of supply creating demand. They were built because the people behind them wanted to build a golf course in Scotland. Yes, of course there needs to be demand if they are to survive. But fundamentally they were not built to satisfy existing demand.

The real question, for an area like Dornoch/Inverness..
Is will an additional destination course convince tourists to stay an entire week in the area, as ooposed to Dornoch and Castle Stuart being one hit wonder diversions on a trip that also includes anothe region such as Aberdeen or Fife.


Local courses such as Brora, Wick, Tain and Golspie could benefit from additional room night traffic-but than that's just me who would choose those four over the Big guns anyway for a more enjoyable day out sans all the trappings of the Big Guns (Caddies,slow play, price, availability)

[Marty Bonnar]

David,
If, (for example), I had been caddying at KB this season, the 500 or so golfers I (might) have met personally would (most likely) have been composed of:
Scots - 6
English - 8
Welsh - 4
Irish - 4
Italian - 4
Norwegian - 4
Swedish - 4
South African - 2
Japanese - 6
German - 2
Canadian - 8
Mexican - 4
American - THE REST!


Purely, ehm, hypothetical, of course...
F.

[David_Tepper]

Marty -

Out of curiosity, what percentage of golfers playing Kingsbarns take caddies?

DT

[Marty Bonnar]

Marty -

Out of curiosity, what percentage of golfers playing Kingsbarns take caddies?

DT

I’d guess maybe 80 - 90ish at peak. Early and late season that drops to maybe 40%. Season runs from mid-May to end-October.

[Ian Mackenzie]

As to whether Scotland has enough golf courses, with respect to Marty, it's a pretty silly question. 'Scotland' is not one market, and 'Scottish golf' covers a whole lot of ground from a nine holer in a little village with an honesty box to the super high end stuff like Skibo. Yes, it is a continuum, but Traigh GC and the Carnegie Club are not in any sense competitors.

A better question is whether there is demand in a particular locality for more golf. Then you get into the issue of where the golfers might come from -- how many will be local, how many tourist, from where? But the truth of the matter is that demand is a secondary issue in the development of the recent high end Scottish courses. Trump Aberdeen, Coul Links, Castle Stuart and the like were not built because of demand, they are examples of supply creating demand. They were built because the people behind them wanted to build a golf course in Scotland. Yes, of course there needs to be demand if they are to survive. But fundamentally they were not built to satisfy existing demand.

The real question, for an area like Dornoch/Inverness..
Is will an additional destination course convince tourists to stay an entire week in the area, as ooposed to Dornoch and Castle Stuart being one hit wonder diversions on a trip that also includes anothe region such as Aberdeen or Fife.


Local courses such as Brora, Wick, Tain and Golspie could benefit from additional room night traffic-but than that's just me who would choose those four over the Big guns anyway for a more enjoyable day out sans all the trappings of the Big Guns (Caddies,slow play, price, availability)

Jeff: yes and no.


In Dornoch, there was the "Castle Stuart effect" that actually hurt the number of room nights at hotels in Dornoch, but not visitor rounds at RDGC, after CS opened.


That hurts jobs in the area. I believe that Dornoch, and the surrounding area, would like to see visitors use Dornoch as a "hub" and stay there for 2-4 nights to explore the are and play the courses you cite instead of coming up for a day and leaving.


There are rumors that the Dornoch Bay Hotel - 104 rooms on the first hole of RDGC - was just sold to a real estate investor in the UK. This hotel mainly catered to pensioners on coach tours of the Highlands. It is possibly the missing link to the success of the Coul Links equation and punctuates the intentions of the developers: Drive revenue to local businesses with a destination-quality golf course.

[Kalen Braley]

Marty,


It is after all the home of golf right, why not more? 


I did some comparison between Scotland and the US, as I knew the US has almost half's the worlds courses:


US            8.1 Mill SQ. KM (excluding Alaska) - 15400 courses, or 1 course per 526 sq.km
Scotland    80 K SQ KM - 600 courses, or 1 course per 133 sq.km.


Even when excluding Alaska, Scotland still has approx 4x the density based on available land.


Based on population:
US       323 Million People - Approx one course per every 21,000 people.
Scotland 5.3 Milion People - Approx one course per every 8,825 people.


You may be on to something here little drummer boy... 

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