Jason,
How blinded by reality are you by the recent closing of a course that you loved?
I’m 100% blinded. I don’t know how golf survives when >75% of its courses may in the near future find the land they occupy to be worth double what even a successful course is worth as a business.
Jason,
Cost of maintenance goes up every time we insist on 7500 tees and retrofit the 6400 yard charmers that have become obsolete. Gas prices are higher, grass seed, fertilizer, etc are not going to go higher in the foreseeable future. Healthcare for workers - up 40-60% for the last 2-3 years (in the US). We have to pay this when we buy a round public or private.
• Cost of play goes hand in hand with the other increases above. I don't see it going down.
• Time to play - Another nice bonus we get when we retrofit or build 7500 courses. Double ditto for neighborhood courses where only a cart will get you around in 4.4 hours with three sub 10 handicaps.
On the other hand, eBay has made equipment much cheaper than 15 years ago, also Craigslist. Apparently costco has done the same. it's never been cheaper to join a private.
Competition has made public the cheapest it's ever been when compared to wages of the same time per decade. Too many courses per capita has kept costs in check. Geez, I just got a pair of Footboy Icon Black online for $119 no shipping, those are $290 shoes 12 months ago. TGW has made clothing dirt cheap.
I submit that golf has never been cheaper, but taken longer to play
Joe, you hit on a few of the factors that might be making this downturn in golf different from previous ones. In the past the game has ebbed and flowed with the economy. But as the economy has slowly recovered over the last 8 years, golf hasn’t really followed suit the way it has in the past. Some of that may be the result of slowness of this specific economic recovery and the way that it hasn’t necessarily improved things for the middle class, but I wonder if some of it has to do with the fact that the game has just outgrown its own practicality. Multi-piece balls and modern equipment require more length. More length means more acreage and more maintained turf. Expenditures are higher for a multitude of reasons, many of which you outline.
Meanwhile, all this evolution in the game hasn’t actually made for a better product, at least for 9/10 rounds played. Even with all the extra money spent on land acquisition, construction, conditioning, marketing, service, and amenities, a round of golf in 2016 isn’t appreciably more fun than a round of golf in 1990. I wasn’t around in 1950, but I doubt the game was any less fun then either.
The other thing that’s different now? We just have a lot more options when it comes to recreation. There’s a real opportunity cost in spending five hours on a golf course in 2016. Golf may not have improved in the last 65 years, but plenty of recreational options have while plenty of entirely new options have emerged as well. Golf, like every other recreational activity I can think of, has evolved fairly rapidly throughout the course of its history. For the last 30+ years, it has rapidly evolved in an unsustainable direction that hasn't made the game better. That trend can be reversed. I just don’t know if it will be reversed.
To Tom Doak's final point in his last post, there are already people finding a profitable if unconventional path in the golf industry. I'm literally heading to Topgolf again as soon as I click Post. I started a thread about a month ago to rave about it and mostly being a trolling asshole, but there's a lot to be said for how their model eliminates a lot of the worst things about golf (searching for balls, time it takes to play, cost barrier to entry, cultural barrier to entry, embarrassment-at-lack-of-skill barrier to entry, waiting on other groups, cost of maintenance and water) while preserving a lot of the best things about it (the social element, the fun of hitting a ball with a stick, the opportunity to drink while playing a "sport"). Topgolf isn't golf and it isn't going to replace golf. But I have to believe people who find creative solutions to those same problems on real courses while preserving those same elements of fun will ultimately be rewarded for it.