Where next?

[Thomas Dai]

If someone had announced a couple of decades or so ago that by 2016 there'd top-class natural, sandy, linksie courses built in relatively remote locations such as Nebraska, coastal Oregon, Tasmania, rural NZ, a tiny island in the Bass Strait plus an old semi-abandoned course on a very remote island off the west coast of Scotland would have been re-born folks would probably have given them a look of disbelief.


So crystal ball time, where next in say 20-30 time?


Atb

[Tom_Doak]

If I had to bet money, I'd guess there will be fewer golf courses worldwide in thirty years than there are today, due to a combination of economics and politics [water issues].  I hope I'm wrong on that, but it just seems to be getting harder, everywhere.


However, that's a net loss I'm talking about ... I believe there will always be room for "special" projects of the kind you're talking about.  Where will they be? 


Australia and New Zealand loom large because there is a lot of available land [so permitting is not so difficult for a beautiful site], plus a reasonable number of golfers with money.  South Africa and Argentina are two other places where there is a golf culture already in place, so a great course would be patronized.  Chile is a long shot, but the land is certainly there if someone wants to take a short-term loss in hopes of a long-term gain.


E.U. countries have too many regulations, so the best bets in Europe are places like the U.K. and Sweden, which aren't bound to the regs.  In the U.S., I think the Great Lakes region has great potential, because "growth" and water are not such big issues.


Asia is the place where the most development will happen, but the hot and humid weather is a limiting factor for many places.  I'll say The Philippines just because I've looked at a great site there and hope it will someday be a project for us.


However, I think the best answer to your question is the Caribbean in general, and Cuba in particular.  There is plenty of American money to develop those islands.

[Niall C]

sorry Tom, I only quickly scanned through your post but I think you missed the Artic Circle 


Niall

[Niall C]

On a more serious response to Tom's post, I don't disagree with Tom thoughts on the total number of courses being reduced however interested to hear his others thoughts on where that reduction will be ie. type of course (private members or resort), and what type of courses will get developed going forward.


When you have companies or industries go through tough times and the workforce gets reduced it is generally middle management that gets decimated. The guys at the top and the guys at the bottom generally remain. I wonder if there is an equivalent in the golf "industry" ? Will high end and very well regarded courses continue to thrive for instance ?


Thoughts ?


Niall

[Thomas Dai]

sorry Tom, I only quickly scanned through your post but I think you missed the Artic Circle 
Niall

Niall,
See this Lofoten Links thread - looks a wonderful location weather permitting http://www.golfclubatlas.com/forum/index.php/topic,61894.msg1470574.html#msg1470574


Tom,
thanks for your comments. Interesting that you mention water issues so soon in your post. A key issue for the whole planet not just golf in the years ahead I suspect. Some of the locations you mention I was kind of pondering but Cuba, now there's an interesting thought. Places where oil and gas developments are likely to occur, local climate permitting, might also become substantial golf locations for the future. Oilies do like their golf, and high spec golf too, and the follow-the-money trail is frequently oil and gas related.


Atb

[Dónal Ó Ceallaigh]

I'm looking forward to the resurrection redevelopment of an abandoned 36-holes site in Donegal. 


I don't see anything of the calibre of the courses you listed being built in Sweden. Firstly, there aren't that many good sites, secondly, the weather is sh*te for 7 months of the year, and thirdly, the regulations in Sweden are in many cases even more stringent than in other EU countries.


If only a golf friendly government (dictatorship even) were elected in Holland for a few terms. That country probably has the most incredible stretch of links land in the world. It's sad to see it wasted on ramblers and dogs 

[Jason Topp]

It seems to me that Mexico is an expansion opportunity.  Travelling from Minnesota in the dead of winter, I want to go to a place where I know I will get great weather and where the flight is relatively easy.  Most Mexico destinations fit the bill perfectly with nonstop flights available all over the place during prime season.  With the notable exception of Cabo, the available golf is relatively meager.

[Niall C]

all good suggestions no doubt, but what do you imagine they will be building ? Is it all going to be resort golf and if so who will they be catering for ?


Niall

[Mark Bourgeois]

Central Detroit, South Central Mississippi, and military bases.

[Sean_A]

Central Detroit

Don't need a stinking course.
https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=golf%20through%20detroit


Ciao

[Josh Stevens]

Perhaps we reverse the trend and instead of far off lands, we start to look back into the cities.  Given the slow demise of private clubs in much of the world, perhaps we will begin to see revitalisation of the inner suburban public and private tracks to introduce some interest that is sadly lacking in much of the world.

At least in these cases, the issue of land value has already been dealt and so the capital costs are going to be a little less scary.

[Tom_Doak]

Perhaps we reverse the trend and instead of far off lands, we start to look back into the cities.  Given the slow demise of private clubs in much of the world, perhaps we will begin to see revitalisation of the inner suburban public and private tracks to introduce some interest that is sadly lacking in much of the world.

At least in these cases, the issue of land value has already been dealt and so the capital costs are going to be a little less scary.

Josh:


The problem with that argument is that economics wants a piece of land to be employed in its "highest and best use".  If you've got a $10m piece of ground in the city, it usually makes more sense to a developer to build apartments or a shopping center there, and build a golf course somewhere further out.  The only courses that survive this are the ones grandfathered in, i.e., city parks and private clubs with strong financials.

[Josh Stevens]

I suspect that may be a case by case scenario

In many parts of world, such as where I am from, local governments have an obligation to retain a certain percentage of open green space.  But that is expensive to maintain and so quite often a golf course is the cheapest way for the council to meet its obligations.  But then of course that only works in places where there is land to spare

[Kalen Braley]

Seems like a place like Detroit would have plenty of urban areas to develop into a golf course...

Finding members might be a tad difficult thou... 

[James Brown]

I'm not sure we can forecast demand for golf very accurately for 30 years out.  I don't think anyone saw the late 90s golf boom coming very far in advance. 


My theory is that golf is entering a phase that I would call "boutique," with a smaller number of avid golfers willing to travel further and pay more for great golf than today.  I think it will be good for golf course design. 

[Josh Stevens]

Surely remote golf has a limit?  Even in the US, how many top end remote golf destinations can the country deal with? At the end of the day there are only so many people with the time, the cash and inclination to fly thousands of miles to play golf.  99.9999% of rounds are still played 30 mins from home and that wont change soon. So I tend to think that our backyard is where we will see the new frontier, if that makes sense

Certainly in Australia, many clubs survived for decades in the urban areas, despite being crappy courses, simply because there was a huge demand.  That demand has now gone and so the  crappy tracks are being found out. Mergers, closures, etc, are now common as well as some clubs with the funds and the vision doing major reno jobs purely in order to avoid the relegation zone

Bonnie Doon in Sydney is the poster child down here for that.  Improve your offering or die.

[Wayne_Kozun]

I agree that the Great Lakes area has a lot of potential. For some reason during the first golden era a century ago the coastline of the lakes was not often used. I live in Ontario where there is over a thousand miles of lakeshore from Thunder Bay on the west of Lake Superior to Kingston on the Eastern tip of Lake Ontario, yet there are very few courses along the lakes. Sure zoning will be an issue in some areas but I bet there are lots of possible sites.

[BCowan]

Surely remote golf has a limit?  Even in the US, how many top end remote golf destinations can the country deal with? At the end of the day there are only so many people with the time, the cash and inclination to fly thousands of miles to play golf.  99.9999% of rounds are still played 30 mins from home and that wont change soon. So I tend to think that our backyard is where we will see the new frontier, if that makes sense

Certainly in Australia, many clubs survived for decades in the urban areas, despite being crappy courses, simply because there was a huge demand.  That demand has now gone and so the  crappy tracks are being found out. Mergers, closures, etc, are now common as well as some clubs with the funds and the vision doing major reno jobs purely in order to avoid the relegation zone

Bonnie Doon in Sydney is the poster child down here for that.  Improve your offering or die.

Josh,

    I agree with most of what you said. Some people in the Toledo, OH area have bought courses more in the country and are trying to do small renovations.  It's great when that happens as apposed to folks who just want to own a world class course for bragging rights.  I think all it takes is a few to get the ball rolling.