I want to amend a couple things. In a previous post, I said I thought that golf participation and the number of operating golf courses would decline gradually.
This is all speculation, of course.
It's a bit surprising that so few courses went out of business after The Big Short. Many went bankrupt and therefore many changed ownership. But anecdotal reports seem to suggest that many clubs are still weak financially.
Therefore, a real possibility exists that the next major recession/contraction will knock out a large number of courses and clubs, and no one will try to revive them. I'm amending my initial comment to suggest there may be a knockout blow that downsizes the game.
John,
I believe many CAN'T go under because they are so closely tied to the neighborhoods they are in. If they shut down, home values would plummet so they keep playing the game of musical owners hoping at some point they will at least break even. The problem, at least in my view is, most of these courses used the worst land (and the homes got the best), are mostly unwalkable, and their clubhouses were built for their three busiest days and not their average day. That story has played out in my area as there aren't enough home owners to support the course within a 3 mile radius, and those outside that area don't want to join a course that they have to take a cart to play each time, or budget 4 hours because of the green to tee spacing.
Traditional courses with tight routings on good land have had their players/members siphoned off by these boondoggles and it appears to golf 'experts' the game is suffering? Meanwhile we have a golf channel that didn't exist when I learned the game in the early 90's, magazines on iPads, FREE quality instruction on youtube, TPI/golf fitness that used to be looked down upon, clubs on eBay that are half of retail, golfnow (which I hate, but nonetheless has made the game cheaper), entire websites devoted to golf only, and junior initiatives that are flat out impressive (at least in my area sponsored by my local PGA chapter).