On greens with a significant overall slope, that slope is much more often back to front than any other. If going long leaves you a downhill putt, then it is a smart play to be short - all things being equal. At TOC that's not the case, but TOC doesn't have the common back to front slope. Golfers who are used to such back to front greens may see the slope of the front of the greens at TOC, which due to false fronts and generally more visible slopes in the front may look like short is better but that's not always the case. That's not to say that long is the best play either, on some greens left or right is the best play. There is no rule of thumb for where you should miss at TOC, which is one reason why course knowledge is more important there than at most other courses.
The reason why 4-6% (or whatever the actual figure is) of approaches go long is more because people play for the well hit shot more often than they execute the well hit shot. If you're between clubs you may take the longer club if you've mishit a few shots that day already, otherwise you might take the shorter club and hit a little harder. You can argue the latter is low golfing IQ, I call it optimism
If you take the club you have to hit perfectly to get all the way to the pin, whether that is a bad decision or not depends on what awaits a short shot versus a long shot. If being short puts you in a nasty bunker or water, it is not a smart play unless you truly hit 90% of your shots perfectly (i.e. you are a pro or +5 amateur) If going short leaves you a 30 foot uphill putt, and going long leaves you a 30 foot downhill putt on a slick green, risking 'short' is clearly the smarter decision as it mostly takes three putt out of play, while the possibility is a lot greater with the slick downhill putt.