Copied from the other thread...
Correct, there is little difference in being 1 yard in the rough and 3 yards in the rough in that both require a hack out with no real recovery options. But the point I was making was that it comes down to how many times you land in the rough and that is down to skill and not luck.
I would agree with you if we were talking about robots who can replicate the same results over and over or if a tournament involved playing hundreds of rounds. However, when you are talking about 72 tee shots over 4 rounds, there is a lot of variability involved just based on pure luck.
Let me put it this way...Let's say there is a tournament of flipping coins (about same percentages of hitting a fairway that is 25 yards wide like at US Open). Obviously, who wins this tournament is purely on luck.
What if there is a guy with a weighted coin that comes up heads 60% of times instead of 50%?
If there was a tournament, this guy would win for sure, correct?
Well, yes and no. Over thousands of coin flip, the guy with the weighted coin will win. However, if we are talking about only 72 flips in a tournament and there are 100 other players flipping, by pure luck, there is a better chance that one of the 100 players with a non-weighted coins will win than the person with the weighted coin. That winner will win on pure luck, not because he flipped better than the person with the weighted coin.
The narrower you make the fairway and eliminate the chances of recovery, you are increasing the influence of luck in determining the winner, not skill (and results above show it - the success of Master/The Open champions compared to PGA/US Open winners).