I think that as this drought gets more severe (hopefully not, but reality seems to bite) not only golf is going to see water rationing and industry wide rationing, causing serious economic default of producers such as the almond industry. As Duncan notes, people travel to experience snow skiing or mountain climbing, etc. I think folks may have to curtail their almond consumption, in favor of produce that may consume less water. So, some sort of triage may have to take place to have the government (presumably- and not just free market) pick winner and losers. I think golf will be an early loser. Tim's observation is interesting about background thoughts about fracking to generate revenue to meet the epic shortfalls in CA. But at the end of the day, I think people will decide they can't eat/drink the oil and energy that fracking produces while wasting natural resources as well, and that we are awash in oil products in the west compared to the immediate needs of life giving water.
But nature is capricious. Here in Green Bay, we had historically low Lake Michigan water levels for last several years, and even with no record snow levels this year, the lake has regenerated to just about normal in very short time. I don't know if it will take a biblical flood or something in CA and rest of the west. But I know the snow was scarce in the Sierra this year along with other ranges within The Rockies. So, not likely a short term 2-5 year horizon regeneration is in the future. I hope that is wrong.
If courses have to close for a year or two in CA due to unmaintainable for lack of irrigation, similar to how ANGC was left to go to pasture during WWII, I shutter to think the pressure to subdivide the acreage for housing lots.
BTW, the thing about folks shocked and incredulous to the idea of golf in the desert, doesn't consider the approach of use of effluent and cultivars of paspalum and such that can use the heavy metal laden effluent recycled water from the surrounding municipalities. Those courses are actually often obligated to take more effluent water than ideal to maintain a firm track.