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Will Lozier

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #25 on: December 17, 2014, 09:26:52 PM »
Any club in a town of 20,000 with a lack of industry needs to be able to draw members from surrounding towns, and that job is exponentially easier for a club located within 20 miles of a city of over 100,000 residents than it is for a club over 30 miles from such a city.

Not a reliable mathematical statement.  Maybe with a base marginally greater than one.  More likely linear until the mileage becomes a bit larger.  The entire function would likely be piecewise.


Jason Thurman

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #26 on: December 17, 2014, 09:56:24 PM »
Any club in a town of 20,000 with a lack of industry needs to be able to draw members from surrounding towns, and that job is exponentially easier for a club located within 20 miles of a city of over 100,000 residents than it is for a club over 30 miles from such a city.

Not a reliable mathematical statement.  Maybe with a base marginally greater than one.  More likely linear until the mileage becomes a bit larger.  The entire function would likely be piecewise.

Doubt it. I would hypothesize that with most local private clubs, plotting the number of members living at any X distance from the club along any given axis will generally follow a normal distribution, except where special causes (such as a large population center like the city of Dayton) exist in close enough proximity to the club to throw off that distribution.

Let's choose a simple North-South axis. I suspect that Piqua CC's membership generally reflected a normal distribution, as follows (simplified for brevity):

Living >20 miles south of the club: 5% of members
Living 10-20 miles south of the club: 15% of members
Living 0-10 miles south of the club: 35% of members
Living 0-10 miles north of the club: 30% of members
Living 10-20 miles north of the club: 12% of members
Living >20 miles north of the club: 3% of members

On that same North-South axis, I suspect that Troy CC's membership shows a more pronounced skewing to the south, as its closer proximity to the city of Dayton gives it a greater number of members from that city and region relative to Piqua

Living >20 miles south of the club: 5% of members
Living 10-20 miles south of the club: 25% of members
Living 0-10 miles south of the club: 40% of members
Living 0-10 miles north of the club: 20% of members
Living 10-20 miles north of the club: 7% of members
Living >20 miles north of the club: 3% of members

Of course, neither of us have any real data, so we're all full of horsepiss. But customer distribution within any given brick-and-mortar business tends to follow a normal distribution prone to being skewed by inconsistencies in general population distribution, and I see no reason why country clubs would be any different.
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

Some of y'all have never been called out in bold green font and it really shows.

noonan

Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #27 on: December 17, 2014, 10:44:28 PM »
I have played Piqua about 15 times. The front compromises the original 9 holes for the most part. The green complexes are superb. The new holes that are mixed in are flat and have less character than the others.

All the wealthy people live in Tipp City which is 5 miles from Troy CC. Piqua did remodel it's club house but it is a hike from Tipp and the other people in Miami County.

Another Dayton CC on hard times:
http://www.whio.com/news/news/country-club-could-be-donated-to-city/njTNY/

noonan

Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #28 on: December 17, 2014, 11:04:03 PM »
Also the former Assistant Pro at Piqua is now the GM at Troy CC

Will Lozier

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #29 on: December 17, 2014, 11:41:13 PM »
Any club in a town of 20,000 with a lack of industry needs to be able to draw members from surrounding towns, and that job is exponentially easier for a club located within 20 miles of a city of over 100,000 residents than it is for a club over 30 miles from such a city.

Not a reliable mathematical statement.  Maybe with a base marginally greater than one.  More likely linear until the mileage becomes a bit larger.  The entire function would likely be piecewise.

Doubt it. I would hypothesize that with most local private clubs, plotting the number of members living at any X distance from the club along any given axis will generally follow a normal distribution, except where special causes (such as a large population center like the city of Dayton) exist in close enough proximity to the club to throw off that distribution.

Let's choose a simple North-South axis. I suspect that Piqua CC's membership generally reflected a normal distribution, as follows (simplified for brevity):

Living >20 miles south of the club: 5% of members
Living 10-20 miles south of the club: 15% of members
Living 0-10 miles south of the club: 35% of members
Living 0-10 miles north of the club: 30% of members
Living 10-20 miles north of the club: 12% of members
Living >20 miles north of the club: 3% of members

On that same North-South axis, I suspect that Troy CC's membership shows a more pronounced skewing to the south, as its closer proximity to the city of Dayton gives it a greater number of members from that city and region relative to Piqua

Living >20 miles south of the club: 5% of members
Living 10-20 miles south of the club: 25% of members
Living 0-10 miles south of the club: 40% of members
Living 0-10 miles north of the club: 20% of members
Living 10-20 miles north of the club: 7% of members
Living >20 miles north of the club: 3% of members

Of course, neither of us have any real data, so we're all full of horsepiss. But customer distribution within any given brick-and-mortar business tends to follow a normal distribution prone to being skewed by inconsistencies in general population distribution, and I see no reason why country clubs would be any different.

I just want to say this is the most hilarious post I've seen on this website.  You really just took the time to create two fake distribution breakdowns - complete with totally fabricated numbers - to support your suspicion.  All I can reply is...speak for yourself Mr.  ::)

Jason Thurman

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #30 on: December 18, 2014, 12:02:36 AM »
Not to support. Just to outline. They say that those who can't do, teach, so I figured you might need the concept of a "normal distribution" spelled out a bit.
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

Some of y'all have never been called out in bold green font and it really shows.

Tom Allen

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #31 on: December 18, 2014, 11:37:04 AM »
I just wanted to add that I played it a few years ago and thought it was nice course, and a blast.  Great green complexes, and some pretty severe greens on the front. I had a fun time, and will be sad to see it closing.  In fact, I shot the best round of my life there (that's not saying much, though) so it will always be a place I remember.


Richard Hetzel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #32 on: December 18, 2014, 11:53:15 AM »
I attended a wedding there a few years back, but was only able to peek at the course. That next summer I called and asked if I could come up and play a round and they allowed me to. 80 miles up, 80 miles back to Cincinnati. I am glad that I played it, it was a fun walk. 9 holes Ross, 9 holes Kidwell.

Anyone want me to post the photos?
Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

Lou_Duran

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #33 on: December 18, 2014, 12:35:52 PM »
Wow, we can now come to gca.com and learn about statistics.  Normal distributions?  I must have missed the lecture in Sociology that went into how housing patterns and demographics can be understood in this way.  Probably did my studying that day on the Scarlet course.  It did happen more than a few times, but I am making up for it now by sitting in this free online university frequently.

Perhaps Chase can foreclose on PCC and donate it to the town (similar to the other club near Dayton whose owners want to sign over the deed).  And maybe BCowan can be enticed to move south and show us and the industry how it is done.  Don't remember ever noticing the club on a number of drives down I-75, and I don't recall ever hearing anything about it, but if Steve Lang suggests it is a gem, here's hoping that it doesn't get plowed up.

P.S.- glad to see that Lima is now up to 60k inhabitants (I wonder what changed since the last census) and that Shawnee CC has a waiting list.  Last time I visited Lima, some 10 years ago, the city and the surrounding areas were losing businesses, people, and the CC was extremely welcoming of visitors and potential new members.


JLahrman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #34 on: December 18, 2014, 01:17:17 PM »
Guys, I'm taking an introduction to R class, this is a perfect opportunity for me to apply what I'm learning...








Lou_Duran

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #35 on: December 18, 2014, 01:21:02 PM »
Rotating the graphs to the right, Dolly Parton, John Kavanaugh, Anthony Grey.  Did I learn good Professor?

JLahrman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #36 on: December 18, 2014, 01:23:17 PM »
That's more interesting and more practical than the reality of Weibull(1.5,1), standard normal, Beta(9,3).

DFarron

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #37 on: December 18, 2014, 01:23:42 PM »
P.S.- glad to see that Lima is now up to 60k inhabitants (I wonder what changed since the last census) and that Shawnee CC has a waiting list.  Last time I visited Lima, some 10 years ago, the city and the surrounding areas were losing businesses, people, and the CC was extremely welcoming of visitors and potential new members.


[/quote]

Lima has been struggling since the 70"s (see PBS special "Lost in Middle America", LIMA lol!) and their club has prospered DESPITE building a huge new club house in the mid '90's. Forty miles north on I-75 Findlay CC prospers as well. The size of Lima is irrelevant, the comparison was not necessarily the city size but the idea that a club in a remote location could thrive despite the small population size.

BCowan

Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #38 on: December 18, 2014, 01:28:33 PM »
Wow, we can now come to gca.com and learn about statistics.  Normal distributions?  I must have missed the lecture in Sociology that went into how housing patterns and demographics can be understood in this way.  Probably did my studying that day on the Scarlet course.  It did happen more than a few times, but I am making up for it now by sitting in this free online university frequently.

Perhaps Chase can foreclose on PCC and donate it to the town (similar to the other club near Dayton whose owners want to sign over the deed).  And maybe BCowan can be enticed to move south and show us and the industry how it is done.  Don't remember ever noticing the club on a number of drives down I-75, and I don't recall ever hearing anything about it, but if Steve Lang suggests it is a gem, here's hoping that it doesn't get plowed up.

P.S.- glad to see that Lima is now up to 60k inhabitants (I wonder what changed since the last census) and that Shawnee CC has a waiting list.  Last time I visited Lima, some 10 years ago, the city and the surrounding areas were losing businesses, people, and the CC was extremely welcoming of visitors and potential new members.

I'll pass Lou.  You are the 14th freest state in the US.  I'd move to a top 5.  http://freedominthe50states.org/overall/texas
Piqua was running just fine before progressives Keynesians took over.  ''Spending creates prosperity''.   It is funny how you are into visiting low key private clubs in the UK.  You also should never put your roots down. 

Great post Mr Farron.  Findlay is a gem. 

Jason Thurman

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #39 on: December 18, 2014, 02:05:43 PM »
I attended a wedding there a few years back, but was only able to peek at the course. That next summer I called and asked if I could come up and play a round and they allowed me to. 80 miles up, 80 miles back to Cincinnati. I am glad that I played it, it was a fun walk. 9 holes Ross, 9 holes Kidwell.

Anyone want me to post the photos?

Yes please.
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

Some of y'all have never been called out in bold green font and it really shows.

BHoover

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #40 on: December 18, 2014, 02:09:53 PM »
I attended a wedding there a few years back, but was only able to peek at the course. That next summer I called and asked if I could come up and play a round and they allowed me to. 80 miles up, 80 miles back to Cincinnati. I am glad that I played it, it was a fun walk. 9 holes Ross, 9 holes Kidwell.

Anyone want me to post the photos?

Yes please.

Yet another vote in favor of seeing photos. This may be our last chance to see the course, so please post away...

Richard Hetzel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #41 on: December 18, 2014, 06:14:29 PM »
OK, I just browsed through the pictures from when Iplayed Piqua CC, wow time sure flies. June 2006 and I dont remember it being so cloudy. A portion of the course can be seen from I-75 but it is also just as easy to totally miss it. In fact, I never even knew it was there until I went there for a wedding and I must have driven by it hundreds of times going back and forth from Cincy to Detroit. It's pretty easy to figure out which holes are Kidwell. They were actually a lot better than most of the Kidwell stuff I have played in the past 20+ years here in Ohio.




« Last Edit: December 18, 2014, 06:17:19 PM by Richard Hetzel »
Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

Richard Hetzel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #42 on: December 18, 2014, 06:16:03 PM »




Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

Richard Hetzel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #43 on: December 18, 2014, 06:18:36 PM »




Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

Richard Hetzel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #44 on: December 18, 2014, 06:19:34 PM »



Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

Richard Hetzel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #45 on: December 18, 2014, 06:20:25 PM »




Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

Richard Hetzel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #46 on: December 18, 2014, 06:21:11 PM »



Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

Richard Hetzel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #47 on: December 18, 2014, 06:32:27 PM »







Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

Richard Hetzel

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #48 on: December 18, 2014, 06:33:11 PM »


Best Played So Far This Season:
Crystal Downs CC (MI), The Bridge (NY), Canterbury GC (OH), Lakota Links (CO), Montauk Downs (NY), Sedge Valley (WI)

noonan

Re: Piqua CC (Ohio) - closing
« Reply #49 on: December 19, 2014, 07:13:26 AM »
The 2nd green (in his 2nd post) is a a fun green complex. The 1st green is also very severe. It defends the short opener well!