[Matt Frey, PGA]

The cover story in the August/September issue of The Met Golfer looks ahead and pontificates what the game of golf and the industry may look like in the year 2040. The editorial covers country clubs, architecture, maintenance, equipment, and the professional game.

The architecture copy is written by Ian Andrew and the direct link to the digital story can be found here: http://www.metgolferdigital.com/i/371284/39

It's a pretty interesting take, and I would argue it will turn into a pretty accurate story as the years progress. Andrew discusses the effect maintenance practices (including water usage and chemical application regulations) will have on golf course design and stresses that fairways will grow wider and possibly include far less strategic bunkering, among other aspects. "Golf course architects will once again be creating courses that look and play like golf's first golden age of design," says Andrew.

I found it to be an interesting read, along with the rest of the cover story. Thoughts?

[Duncan Cheslett]

By 2040 we'll hardly need golf courses. Today's kids will will be playing virtual golf from their own homes and will never have to dirty a pair of shoes.

The idea of going out to play on a real course will be as alien to them as the suggestion is today that my thirteen-year old son might like to get on his bike and go round to see his friends during the school holidays.

"Why would I do that?" he asks from behind his headset, PS4 controller in hand, "I'm hanging out with them all now!"

Actual golf courses will be the preserve of old farts and weirdos who appreciate fresh air, real turf, and face-to-face companionship.

Then they will die out.

[Rich Goodale]

Amen, Duncan!

[Adrian_Stiff]

People wont want to buried in 2040, golf course and cemetries are prime real estate. And thats all she wrote.

[Greg Taylor]

I'll offer up the counter argument.

Golf will be pretty much where it is today... people will actually like being out of doors and golf will the preserve of the male who like to get out but not too far out, if you know what I mean.

I'm not worried... but then again I'm not in the business.

[Duncan Cheslett]

Greg,

I wasn't being entirely serious.

Unfortunately, as I read again the post I made in jest early this morning, I suspect that actually there might be a degree of prescience in my words...

[Adrian_Stiff]

I actually think golf could do well as people will live to well past a 100 and maybe even 150. 100 could be the next 50 if stem cells work out.
4 hours of light exercise twice a week/ 2000 calorie burn. So I think on health grounds it could get a good future booth.

[Rich Goodale]

Greg,

I wasn't being entirely serious.

Unfortunately, as I read again the post I made in jest early this morning, I suspect that actually there might be a degree of prescience in my words...

There is prescience, there.  My wife and I belong to a 600 member attractive golf club (doak 4-5, views 9-10), which is in a catchment area of ~500,000+ people, 100,000+ of whom live 15 minutes away, and it is dying,  Slowly, but dying.  My wife is a volunteer coach for beginners, and despite serious marketing and promotion this SGU first teeish program can only attract five children aged 8-12 to participate each session.  And this is in Scotland.  There is a future for golf but it is a very limited one.

[Adam Clayman]

Rihc- I'm unaware if your thoughts have been already expressed, but if you could give us your cliff notes version of the pending referendum, I'm sure I'm not alone in wanting to hear your thoughts?
More comfy PM'ing? I'll take Rihc's thoughts for dummies version.

Nvermind, I'm going to your blog

[Ally Mcintosh]

Greg,

I wasn't being entirely serious.

Unfortunately, as I read again the post I made in jest early this morning, I suspect that actually there might be a degree of prescience in my words...

There is prescience, there.  My wife and I belong to a 600 member attractive golf club (doak 4-5, views 9-10), which is in a catchment area of ~500,000+ people, 100,000+ of whom live 15 minutes away, and it is dying,  Slowly, but dying.  My wife is a volunteer coach for beginners, and despite serious marketing and promotion this SGU first teeish program can only attract five children aged 8-12 to participate each session.  And this is in Scotland.  There is a future for golf but it is a very limited one.

Yet if you go up the road to Crail, they have more kids than they know what to do with...

[Rich Goodale]

Greg,

I wasn't being entirely serious.

Unfortunately, as I read again the post I made in jest early this morning, I suspect that actually there might be a degree of prescience in my words...

There is prescience, there.  My wife and I belong to a 600 member attractive golf club (doak 4-5, views 9-10), which is in a catchment area of ~500,000+ people, 100,000+ of whom live 15 minutes away, and it is dying,  Slowly, but dying.  My wife is a volunteer coach for beginners, and despite serious marketing and promotion this SGU first teeish program can only attract five children aged 8-12 to participate each session.  And this is in Scotland.  There is a future for golf but it is a very limited one.

Yet if you go up the road to Crail, they have more kids than they know what to do with...

Ally

Same with Dornoch (my other Club), but both Dornoch and Crail have miniscule catchment areas and are just preaching to the converted (or stuck in rural areas where there is really not much else to do....)

Rich

[Wayne_Kozun]

One of Ian's forecasts at the end of the story is that no courses built between 1945 and 1994 will remain in the Top 100.  What courses from that era are on the top 100 today? Some that come to mind of the top of my head are Muirfield Village, Kiawah, TPC Sawgrass, and Harbour Town.

Is there agreement on this?

[Matt Frey, PGA]

One of Ian's forecasts at the end of the story is that no courses built between 1945 and 1994 will remain in the Top 100.  What courses from that era are on the top 100 today? Some that come to mind of the top of my head are Muirfield Village, Kiawah, TPC Sawgrass, and Harbour Town.

Is there agreement on this?

I would be surprised if zero courses designed between 1945 and 1994 fail to make the list, however, there isn't a ton of them on there now. However, depending on if/how much sea levels rise, Kiawah and Harbor Town could lose a few golf holes by 2040, which could sacrifice the overall layouts. I wouldn't be surprised if TPC Sawgrass returns to its roots and has a much more natural and rugged look due to water restrictions, etc.

[Duncan Cheslett]

The water issue is an interesting one. As a resident of a wet island off the coast of France I have little experience or understanding of the need to apply water to golf courses other than that which falls out of the sky. I see pictures if lush green courses in the desert of Arizona  however, and wonder how can that be viable or justifiable?

Perhaps golf courses should be limited to locations that can support them without any artificial watering...

 

[Wayne_Kozun]

Or areas where there is ample water for irrigation, either fresh for traditional grasses or sea water for paspalum.

[Jeff Bergeron]

When are we going to take Augusta National to task for creating an unrealistic and unsustainable benchmark for golf course maintenance standards? Having been the Green Chair at two prominent clubs the ANGC is the model members expect. It's an almost impossible task to change their thinking.

[Jim Nugent]

Ian lost me with his intro and opening sentence.  The US has experienced lots of droughts before.  Golf survived them all.  It's in no more danger now, at least from environmental factors, than the polar bears are.  The entire article is built on a red herring IMO. 

As for Trump Pebble Beach, I can see why the Donald would want the property.   But why does PB need him? 

[Duncan Cheslett]

Presumably golf courses in unsuitable areas survived drought previously by simply taking the water they needed regardless of the consequences to everyone else. No-one can be in any doubt that this is going to prove impossible in the future.

Golf began in areas which need no artificial watering. That it ever spread to desert areas at all is patently ridiculous and it is probably likely that the game will be forced back to more suitable regions of the world.

For those whose golf courses disappear, hey, there's always virtual golf! 

[Jim Nugent]

Duncan, I really agree with you about the virtual world.  As it gets more and more realistic, I think huge numbers of people will find it more appealing than life.  Not just in golf, but (sadly) most things. 

[Ally Mcintosh]

One of Ian's forecasts at the end of the story is that no courses built between 1945 and 1994 will remain in the Top 100.  What courses from that era are on the top 100 today? Some that come to mind of the top of my head are Muirfield Village, Kiawah, TPC Sawgrass, and Harbour Town.

Is there agreement on this?

I would be surprised if zero courses designed between 1945 and 1994 fail to make the list, however, there isn't a ton of them on there now. However, depending on if/how much sea levels rise, Kiawah and Harbor Town could lose a few golf holes by 2040, which could sacrifice the overall layouts. I wouldn't be surprised if TPC Sawgrass returns to its roots and has a much more natural and rugged look due to water restrictions, etc.

Turnberry will be one that stays.

[Thomas Dai]

What predictions were made 26 years ago for 2014 I wonder?

atb

PS - nice line in humour on Ken Van Vechtens third prediction - "Despite another quarter-century of pathetic quips, not one golfer over the age of 25 has gotten the card girls' 'phone number".

[Ian Andrew]

I think your reaction to what I wrote likely will depend on your age and where you live.

We have lots of water in Southern Ontario, more than most regions, but we have restrictions to water usage.
We also have development freezes based upon headwaters and aquifers.
Canada has 1/6 of the world's freshwater, but we manage that resource.

There have been a couple of golf courses built in Ontario which are self-sustaining when it comes to water.

The one constant in golf design is the restrictions have always increased, never been further relaxed ...

Are the thoughts a little melodramatic at times, sure...
The opening wasn't intended to be the opening, written out of fun (love Cormac McCarthy), but is it out of the realm of possibility to see golf limited or restricted over water .... no

[Steve Okula]

There are alternatives to using freshwater - effluent and desalinization - that are presently keeping golf courses alive in places like Turkey, the middle east, the Canary Islands, Mexico, and so on.

Improved turfgrass varieties like seashore paspalum and ultra-dwarf bermudagrasses are allowing better conditions with less fresh water than even ten years ago. Researchers and breeders are still hard at work and I can't wait to see what they come up with next.

Resort courses especially count on green surfaces to attract customers. That won't change in a generation.

Even if water and pesticides do become more restricted, it won't affect bunkers, which only need an input of sand and labor. Where labor is cheap, bunkers will thrive.  

I see kids from 5-25 playing golf every day. Maybe golf isn't booming but, to borrow from Sam Clemens, reports of its death are greatly exaggerated.

[Jim_Kennedy]

What predictions were made 26 years ago for 2014 I wonder?

From the NGF in 1982
http://tinyurl.com/os5lq2g

[Tom_Doak]

Jim:

Thanks for the great link.  People are always making predictions, but it's far too rare for anyone to call them out on their past predictions.

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