Scotland independence and golf

[Rich Goodale]

Rich,

if the union is broken up the Bank of England with associated assets and debts will also be effectively ended. The rUK would take its share continue to use the pound stirling which is the currency of the UK and we in Scotland would be able to set up our own currency and lender of last resort. Expecting a foreign country to underwrite our economy is ridiculous.

Interesting how RoI is suddenly not worth defending as your chosen model of how an independent Scotland could work

Jon

So Jon

If the BofE closers down and becomes the BofrUK, and a BofCaledonia is created, the latter will have an international payments surplus of ~£4billion and the former will have an international payments deficit of ~$40billion.  So which "pound" will be more stable if this is true (which it is)?

Rich

[Ulrich Mayring]

If I understood it correctly, "Sterlingisation" means that Scotland would have its own currency, but that the "Caledonian" would be tied to the pound at a fixed exchange rate. Therefore, by definition, both currencies would substitutable for each other in every way and there could be no difference in stability.

Ulrich

[Thomas Dai]

There are already pound denomination bank notes issued by the Bank of Scotland, the Royal Bank of Scotland and the Clydesdale Bank. Any other Scottish banks also issue them?

For that matter there are also pound denomination Ulster Bank notes. Arn't there Bank of Ireland pound denomination notes too?

All may be equivalent legal tender throughout the UK but you still get strange looks if you pull one out of your wallet in shops etc in England or Wales.

atb

[Rich Goodale]

There are already pound denomination bank notes issued by the Bank of Scotland, the Royal Bank of Scotland and the Clydesdale Bank. Any other Scottish banks also issue them?

For that matter there are also pound denomination Ulster Bank notes. Arn't there Bank of Ireland pound denomination notes too?

All may be equivalent legal tender throughout the UK but you still get strange looks if you pull one out of your wallet in shops etc in England or Wales.

atb

This is all true, Thomas, but the Bank of Scotland is owned by an rUK bank  (Lloyds) which is in itself owned largely by the UK Government; the Royal Bank of Scotland  is also largely owned by the UK Government, and has ~ 90% of its assets and liabilities and staff in rUK; and Clydesdale bank (my bank!) is owned by the Aussies  (NAB).

It is all more complex than outside observers might think........

[Jon Wiggett]

Rich,

if the union is broken up the Bank of England with associated assets and debts will also be effectively ended. The rUK would take its share continue to use the pound stirling which is the currency of the UK and we in Scotland would be able to set up our own currency and lender of last resort. Expecting a foreign country to underwrite our economy is ridiculous.

Interesting how RoI is suddenly not worth defending as your chosen model of how an independent Scotland could work

Jon

So Jon

If the BofE closers down and becomes the BofrUK, and a BofCaledonia is created, the latter will have an international payments surplus of ~£4billion and the former will have an international payments deficit of ~$40billion.  So which "pound" will be more stable if this is true (which it is)?

Rich

Strange how earlier your figures were surplus of £5 billion and deficit of £45 billion. Not very reliable really and of course they include 100% of north sea gas I suspect so even rockier. As for RoI increases compared to UK it depends on the starting point. Do you seriously believe the RoI is financially better off now than the UK?

If you think about it logically and what you say is correct why would a smaller country with multi billion pound surplus want to tie itself down to a bigger country with a considerably larger deficit?

Jon

[Jon Wiggett]

Jon

I think there is some confusion.  I hear Rihc saying that Scotland can use Sterling as its currency, not that Scotland will be able to control that currency once and if there is a split.  It seems obvious the long term goal is for Scotland to join the Euro (if it survives!) as launching its own currency would be a very risky move...not that joining the Euro doesn't have its own risks.  In the short term though, I think it is very wise for Scotland to hang onto the Pound and Westminster should support this (if a split is on the cards) if only to make the separation go smoother.  Remember, there are a lot of Scots in England who have family in the frigid north and Scotland is a keen trading partner.  It doesn't benefit anybody to play hardball. 

Ciao

Sean,

Rich has quite clearly said he thinks there should be a 'currency union' and the only reason not to have one from the Westminster side would be spite. 'currency union' would clearly mean rUK underwriting an independent Scottish economy.

Jon

[Mark Chaplin]

With an independent Scotland being a land of milk and honey lets hope Milliband's new border will contain a "Sangatte" of asylum seekers waiting to enter the promised land.

[Pete_Pittock]

Did they peak too early? New poll just out has the independents ahead 51-49. They were down 22 a month ago.

[Mark Chaplin]

The organisation Germans For Scottish Independence......sums it up really Scots living in London have no vote yet Germans and 80,000 other Europeans living in Scotland do.

I think the poll is excellent for the No vote campaign as it will show people they can sleep their way to independence if they don't vote. Wee Ek would no doubt have prefered to arrive at 51% on the day of the vote.

[Rich Goodale]

Rich,

if the union is broken up the Bank of England with associated assets and debts will also be effectively ended. The rUK would take its share continue to use the pound stirling which is the currency of the UK and we in Scotland would be able to set up our own currency and lender of last resort. Expecting a foreign country to underwrite our economy is ridiculous.

Interesting how RoI is suddenly not worth defending as your chosen model of how an independent Scotland could work

Jon

So Jon

If the BofE closers down and becomes the BofrUK, and a BofCaledonia is created, the latter will have an international payments surplus of ~£4billion and the former will have an international payments deficit of ~$40billion.  So which "pound" will be more stable if this is true (which it is)?

Rich

Strange how earlier your figures were surplus of £5 billion and deficit of £45 billion. Not very reliable really and of course they include 100% of north sea gas I suspect so even rockier. As for RoI increases compared to UK it depends on the starting point. Do you seriously believe the RoI is financially better off now than the UK?

If you think about it logically and what you say is correct why would a smaller country with multi billion pound surplus want to tie itself down to a bigger country with a considerably larger deficit?

Jon

Jon

Presumably you know the meaning of the "~" you copied above?  If you have forgotten, it means "approximately."  As far as I am concerned, the relevant facts are that Scotland currently runs a significant positive balance of payments and rUK runs a significant deficit.  Given this fact, it is more likely (all other things being equal) that an independent Scotland would have a stronger "Poond" than the rUK "rPound."  That's all.

Rich

[Jon Wiggett]

Rich,
how is 'currency union' approximate? If you meant to say the £1billion and £5 billion discrepancy in your two posts that is a big 'approximate. You say they are facts but will not or probably cannot say what basis they have. Like most touting your line of thought very general sweeping statements but no real facts behind it. You might reach £5 billion surplus with 100% of gas and oil revenue in the figures but what is it once the rUK's share (50% and 10%) is taken out. Is it with the defence, national infrastructure and foreign spending is added to the deficit ?

Jon

[Rich Goodale]

Rich,
how is 'currency union' approximate?
Jon

No comprende, Compadre.  All I was trying to point out is that vis a vis the ROW Scotland has a positive balance of payments and the rUK has a negative one.

Slainte

Rich

PS--51% Yes and rising, 49% No and falling.

rfg

[Jon Wiggett]

Rich,

you are basing your ideas on facts you do not know and are avoiding answering straight forward questions asking you to clarify your bold but apparently shaky view point. Very disappointing really.

Rich,
how is 'currency union' approximate?
Jon

No comprende, Compadre. All I was trying to point out is that vis a vis the ROW Scotland has a positive balance of payments and the rUK has a negative one.


rfg

Rich, does it really? you do not appear to know!!! 

[Marty Bonnar]

How much am I loving seeing a Septic and a Sassenach arguing about discussing Scottish independence! Thanks guys!
Cheers,
F.

[Pete_Pittock]

Rich,
how is 'currency union' approximate?
Jon

No comprende, Compadre.  All I was trying to point out is that vis a vis the ROW Scotland has a positive balance of payments and the rUK has a negative one.

Slainte

A month ago it was failing 61-39. Human nature says many of he current yes votes are vanity positions -( I voted for independence, but we got outvoted). Now that is is a virtual tie those people will re-assess their stance.  Its probably down by 4 points.

Rich

PS--51% Yes and rising, 49% No and falling.

rfg

[John McCarthy]

Martin: We over here on this side of the Pond like even numbers of States (makes adding stars on the flag easier outside of the original one of course); so we need a two'fer.  Scotland and Puerto Rico.

How does direct domestic flights from Edinburgh to San Juan or Honolulu sound?

I am a firm supporter of Puerto Rican independence.  PR is in a bad way because they are tied to the dollar, like Greece. 

[Mark Chaplin]

The Scots deny being a burden on the English taxpayer, but Scottish government figures for 2012-13 estimated that £65.2 billion was spent that year in Scotland against £47.6 billion raised in revenues.

[Rich Goodale]

The Scots deny being a burden on the English taxpayer, but Scottish government figures for 2012-13 estimated that £65.2 billion was spent that year in Scotland against £47.6 billion raised in revenues.

I don't doubt your figures, Mark, but rUK had a budget deficit of ~£60 billion in 2012-3.  Both the Scottish and English (and Welsh and Northern Irish) taxpayers were spending more than they earned (largely on pensioners like you and me), putting the burden on our children and grandchildren.

Rich

[Ed Tilley]

What will happen after a Yes vote is incredibly difficult to predict. There will undoubtedly be short term pain and turmoil in both Scotland and rUK. In the medium to long term, you would expect that there will be no adverse effects to the rUK - at the very least, Scotland takes out as much in public expenditure per capita as it puts back in relative to the rUK (and that's with oil revenues which are declining). Once everything is settled I just can't see there being any major shift for the UK.

What will happen in Scotland is anyone's guess - obviously not the mythical nirvana that Alex Salmond talks about - taxes down, spending up, free deep-fried Mars bars for all! Will Scotland be allowed to join the EU - Will Spain veto? Will rUk veto if Scotland defaults on its share of debt? Will the "progressive" SNP / Labour dominance bankrupt the country - or will a new centre / centre-right party emerge as an effective counter weight. It's a massive step into the unknown for Scotland. I feel that people don't quite appreciate how much. That said, if I were Scottish I would still vote yes.

Now where is that ballot paper for S-E England independence? 

[Rich Goodale]

What will happen after a Yes vote is incredibly difficult to predict. There will undoubtedly be short term pain and turmoil in both Scotland and rUK. In the medium to long term, you would expect that there will be no adverse effects to the rUK - at the very least, Scotland takes out as much in public expenditure per capita as it puts back in relative to the rUK (and that's with oil revenues which are declining). Once everything is settled I just can't see there being any major shift for the UK.

What will happen in Scotland is anyone's guess - obviously not the mythical nirvana that Alex Salmond talks about - taxes down, spending up, free deep-fried Mars bars for all! Will Scotland be allowed to join the EU - Will Spain veto? Will rUk veto if Scotland defaults on its share of debt? Will the "progressive" SNP / Labour dominance bankrupt the country - or will a new centre / centre-right party emerge as an effective counter weight. It's a massive step into the unknown for Scotland. I feel that people don't quite appreciate how much. That said, if I were Scottish I would still vote yes.

Now where is that ballot paper for S-E England independence?  

Excellent post, Ed.  I love uncertainty, and as my great-great-great-great-great-grandfather Capt. John Parker (leader of the Minutemen of Lexington Green in 1775) said:

"Don't fire unless fired upon, but if they mean to have a war, let it begin here."

[Jon Wiggett]

How much am I loving seeing a Septic and a Sassenach arguing about discussing Scottish independence! Thanks guys!
Cheers,
F.

and being commented on by a 'Sassenach'

Cheers,

S

[Rich Goodale]

This weekend's edition of the Financial Times has what is likely the most cogent analysis of the currency situation you will come across:

 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/e635505a-328f-11e4-a5a2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CWBGoCYe

But the currency situation is by no means the only major problem and independent Scotland will face.

Thanks for that, David, even though I had seen it before.  I think the reference below is more measured and less postured:

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/the-scottish-independence-vote-and-your-money

Rich

[Rich Goodale]

How much am I loving seeing a Septic and a Sassenach arguing about discussing Scottish independence! Thanks guys!
Cheers,
F.

Marty

Both Jon and I are taxpayers up here in Scotchland, and we fund your extravagant lifestyle.  Thank us rather than slag us, please!

Rhicard

[Thomas Dai]

A couple of other matters to ponder -

A 'yes' vote would remove Westminster's 'West Lothian Question', named after the former WL-MP Tam Dalyell, although it may then turn the matter into a 'West Cardiff' or 'West Belfast' Question. Considerable implications here as well.

A 'yes' vote would remove all 59 Scottish constituency MP's and, apart from 1 Conservative, they are either Labour (40), Lib/Dem (11), SNP (6) or Independent (1). This would have a significant effect on the relative positions of Messrs Cameron, Clegg and Miliband in Westminster for Mr Cameron would no longer need Mr Clegg's coalition support to form a Government.

The referendum vote is on 18th Sept, but before that there is another important date............tickets for the 2015 Rugby World Cup go on sale/ballot from 12th Sept!

atb

[Rich Goodale]

A couple of other matters to ponder -

A 'yes' vote would remove Westminster's 'West Lothian Question', named after the former WL-MP Tam Dalyell, although it may then turn the matter into a 'West Cardiff' or 'West Belfast' Question. Considerable implications here as well.

A 'yes' vote would remove all 59 Scottish constituency MP's and, apart from 1 Conservative, they are either Labour (40), Lib/Dem (11), SNP (6) or Independent (1). This would have a significant effect on the relative positions of Messrs Cameron, Clegg and Miliband in Westminster for Mr Cameron would no longer need Mr Clegg's coalition support to form a Government.

The referendum vote is on 18th Sept, but before that there is another important date............tickets for the 2015 Rugby World Cup go on sale/ballot from 12th Sept!



atb

Very good point, Thomas re: the E Lothian question (which, for those who don't know, asks, why can the Scots (or Welsh or Northern Irish) vote in Westmenister (UK Parliament) on issues which are local to the Englsih (e.g, English NHS, Police, Roads, etc.).  Also a good and very obvious point regarding the rUK if and when Scotland flits.  I we do, hell will freeze over before Labour gets back into power in rUK, and the Lib Dems will survive only as rGreens.

Vis a vis the Rugby World Cup I have been invited to play in a few Old Boy matches for my alma mater vs. London Irish OBs, etc., but have declined due to the fact that it is too early for me to die.

Slainte

Roich

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