[JESII]

Golf is like any other business.  If I were to build 5 grocery stores in an area that only needed one then there would be a problem even though all of us buy groceries.  Some of the best opportunities ever for getting into a golf course are now.  There is a lot of BS floating abouthow bad a business golf is.  I look at it like this.  The population will continue to grow and not many more courses will be built for a long time.  If the percentage of people playing drops and yet the population of an area increases then the courses serving that area will be capable of being profitable.  Note I say "capable".  The clubhouse is more of a problem than the course inmost cases and they have to go....I think back and realize that I did not play much golf from 20-30 years of age and I think that is a common factor we never address.  There is a lot of posturing going on out there right now.....

I agree with you Mike.

One thing about Golf, in my opinion, is that each local market functions pretty much independently to the other thousand(s) of local markets. How does the success or failure of your course impact/predict the success or failure of the folks making a go at LuLu here in my neighborhood? If you create a product that people want, that will have zero carry over to the Philly suburbs, and vice versa.

As always, the equipment guys are small hangers on to the golf culture that really is the foundation of its health and the culture is always developed locally.

I think the negatives are all the result of living through the backside of an oversupply bubble. Courses are open for business, maintenance has never been better, equipment options/liquidity is abundant. Find someone to play with and have fun!

[Mike Hendren]

There is more romance in developing a golf course than there is in developing a grocery store.  Will this pathological behavior continue in the face of highly unfavorable economics?  I suspect the answer is "as long as there's capital available."

Right now the spigot's closed.  Not sure it will remain so, particularly when every feasibility study will conclude that it's feasible.

Bogey

[Jud_T]

The flip side is there's never been a better time to play great golf or join a great club.  Many fabulous clubs that used to have long wait lists do not at the moment.  There's never been better public options available.  The glass is half full too, boys and girls...

[BHoover]

The flip side is there's never been a better time to play great golf or join a great club.  Many fabulous clubs that used to have long wait lists do not at the moment.  There's never been better public options available.  The glass is half full too, boys and girls...

Well said.  There is tremendous opportunity for those looking for it.  And if the current state of the industry results in a reformation of the way the industry is structured here in the US, I don't see that as being a bad thing.  I hold out some hope (maybe wildly optimistic) that we will see a gradual trend toward the UK/Australia model of golf clubs.  

[Mike_Young]

I also think we will move more toward the UK model.

In the US we are so influenced by marketing and advertising and most of what we hear about golf is put out there or promoted by PGA or USGA or even GCSAA and the large management companies.  Everyone of those named has a different motive than your local golf course.  Using Athens as an example, no one of you would know of the local breakfast hangout like the Mayflower restaurant and yet all know of McDonald's breakfast.  Why?  The local guy has no need to advertise to the nation nor does he have franchise advertising nor does he need any of it.  He has a clientele.  Good golf is the same.  The hype is coming from groups that need the actual courses across the country in order to survive or provide jobs for their members.  The large management companies seem to always be playing musical chairs with Wall St funds and spend so much time with accountants showing the next KK&R that they can produce a 20% return and thus are deserving of another funding.  And their leaders get listed as "the most important people in golf" when theri real expertise is musical chairs.   Golf is a mom and pop and they don't care to get into all of this hype and marketing.  For 25 years peole have tried to create an industry on the backs of the independent owners ( including the NGCOA itself...The groups like NGCOA started as a group for small owners and today they have their own conference for the multicourse owners and even consider many private, non profit, clubs as members.  ).  The PGA thinks owners should hire their member over a more qualified non member.  The equipment companies think they should stock their product while they " consign" the same product to a big box competitor.  There is a large SILENT component to this golf industry and they have no reason to enter the fray.

[JESII]

Another way to look at it is...if Taylor Made were to flip their production cycle from 4 drivers in one year to 1 driver in 4 years, would anyone leave the game?

[William_G]

To say something was lost is to assume it was once found. Golf never had them; they view golf as their grand pa's game and they are not impressed with acres and acres of perfect landscaping and uniform green grass, they grew up with that.

15" cups isn't going to get them either. Turn golf into part game, part hike, part exploration, and you'll get some of their attention.

Sort of what is was like before we perfected it.

and golf is not a game of perfect

rarely do you win in golf particularly if play medal play, which in itself is an entirely self defeating concept

if you play match play, like horse in BB, then you have fun, it's an adventure!

the growth of the game via the total score concept was sheer suicide yet we watch the pros play for other peoples money with that concept every week

  I totally disagree with that statement.  It is ''Medal play'' is so uncool.  Golf experiences growth from time to time regardless of what form you are playing.  Most people I have known like to try and shoot less from round to round, and love challenging themselves to do better than their prior personal best.  They are playing the golf course.  A walk in the park, yet they are competing.  golf is inner in a way. 

what you are saying is convoluted/complicated that you leave no doubt as to why golf is tanking

like I said the concept of actually scoring better in medal play is so self defeating for most people particularly for those I don't know or play golf, why would they play at all??

[Tom_Doak]

There is more romance in developing a golf course than there is in developing a grocery store.  Will this pathological behavior continue in the face of highly unfavorable economics?  I suspect the answer is "as long as there's capital available."

Thank God there are still a few rich guys who believe in romance.    And, there is nothing pathological with wanting to build a better product for consumers, any more than it's pathological to start a new restaurant or a new architecture firm, or become a PGA professional, or whatever.  It is just risky, and it's up to the individual whether they want to take that risk.

But, that's always been a small segment of the market.  Most of the developers of the last 20 years were in it for the money in the houses; and it's going to be a while before the capital forgets how that turned out.  Hopefully, though, when it does return, people will not sign up for a deal that puts all the cash into the developer's pocket while unloading the golf course onto the members with debt and not enough members to maintain the place.  

[Ryan Hillenbrand]

I fall right in the millennial age range. It is too expensive bottom line.  I don't see the price point changing and so golf will continue to lose.

I don't think golf is too expensive - golf equipment is too expensive and only if you buy into the hype of the manufacturers and feel like you need to have the latest & greatest.

I'm a Gen X'r with several millennial cousins. When I got hooked on the game it was before there were technological "necessities" like iPhones and WiFi to spend money on. They are faced with a disposable budgetary choice now - and the iPhone wins. Something I never had to worry about.

[Mike_Young]

There is more romance in developing a golf course than there is in developing a grocery store.  Will this pathological behavior continue in the face of highly unfavorable economics?  I suspect the answer is "as long as there's capital available."

 Hopefully, though, when it does return, people will not sign up for a deal that puts all the cash into the developer's pocket while unloading the golf course onto the members with debt and not enough members to maintain the place.  

Amen....if a future developer could build the course for half of the signature constrcution cost and endow the maintenance budget, that model would work...

[Andrew Buck]

I fall right in the millennial age range. It is too expensive bottom line.  I don't see the price point changing and so golf will continue to lose.

I felt that way when I was 25 (and I'm sure part of the issue was I never paid for golf until post college, but could play a lot).  I also thought it took too long (living in Chicago and not having much private access).  It was just too expensive and time consuming to play a lot.  Looking back realistically, I didn't have much problem blowing a couple hundred dollars at bars or Wrigley Field most weekends and sleeping in the next day, so in reality, it just was too expensive and time consuming for my priorities at that time. 

I hear the same thing from some friends why they don't join the local club today.  Yet, they take one or two family vacations a year that have to run $6k combined, and drive two cars that probably come with $15k of annual car payments.  For me, I'd prefer to drive a nice used car and nix one vacation a year for the club membership which we use a lot, but not everyone has the same priorities. 

Doesn't mean cost isn't an issue, but if the other issues were removed, I think people are willing to pay for things they like. 
I mean, it costs something like $600 to bring a family of 4 to a Cubs game in box seats now, and attendance is still better than when it could be done for $50 in 1982. 

[George Pazin]

I also think we will move more toward the UK model.

In the US we are so influenced by marketing and advertising and most of what we hear about golf is put out there or promoted by PGA or USGA or even GCSAA and the large management companies.  Everyone of those named has a different motive than your local golf course.  Using Athens as an example, no one of you would know of the local breakfast hangout like the Mayflower restaurant and yet all know of McDonald's breakfast.  Why?  The local guy has no need to advertise to the nation nor does he have franchise advertising nor does he need any of it.  He has a clientele.  Good golf is the same.  The hype is coming from groups that need the actual courses across the country in order to survive or provide jobs for their members.  The large management companies seem to always be playing musical chairs with Wall St funds and spend so much time with accountants showing the next KK&R that they can produce a 20% return and thus are deserving of another funding.  And their leaders get listed as "the most important people in golf" when theri real expertise is musical chairs.   Golf is a mom and pop and they don't care to get into all of this hype and marketing.  For 25 years peole have tried to create an industry on the backs of the independent owners ( including the NGCOA itself...The groups like NGCOA started as a group for small owners and today they have their own conference for the multicourse owners and even consider many private, non profit, clubs as members.  ).  The PGA thinks owners should hire their member over a more qualified non member.  The equipment companies think they should stock their product while they " consign" the same product to a big box competitor.  There is a large SILENT component to this golf industry and they have no reason to enter the fray.

Love this post.

[Dan Herrmann]

Plus, look at the way many privates go about trying to get members.  It's a joke - referral by 3-5 members, meetings with committees, etc...

(I'm not talking about the Pine Valley's of the world here - I'm talking about the huge number of '2nd Tier' clubs)

[JESII]

I don't know Dan...not to sound like too much of a douche but look at the places that simply let everyone that can pay for it in. I don't think they're faring all that well...

[John Kavanaugh]

Plus, look at the way many privates go about trying to get members.  It's a joke - referral by 3-5 members, meetings with committees, etc...

(I'm not talking about the Pine Valley's of the world here - I'm talking about the huge number of '2nd Tier' clubs)

That's all fake crap used to discriminate against people that they don't want.  I remember when a club said that they wanted me and my wife to come in for an interview and I refused because I wasn't telling my wife I was joining they let me in on the spot.

Same thing with this so-called UK model.  You can play anywhere you want in the US if you have enough game to make the kind of money it takes to play.  If you don't, join the Outpost.  How many courses does one golfer need?

[John Kavanaugh]

One reason many of us have lost our desire to see new courses is because the challenge is gone.

[Mike Sweeney]

One reason many of us have lost our desire to see new courses is because the challenge is gone.

And everyone keeps showing up with the same logos!

Of course, maybe the Millennials just don't trust old white guys:



http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/03/07/millennials-in-adulthood/

[Matthew Lloyd]

and golf is not a game of perfect

rarely do you win in golf particularly if play medal play, which in itself is an entirely self defeating concept

if you play match play, like horse in BB, then you have fun, it's an adventure!

the growth of the game via the total score concept was sheer suicide yet we watch the pros play for other peoples money with that concept every week
[/quote]

I really agree with this and feel that if more kids got involved in the game at a young age via match play, scrambles, etc. they would have more fun, improve faster and become more invested in the game as a long-term pursuit.  I'm all for individual rounds as well but think that playing solely individual rounds can be counter-productive for the majority of kids learning the game initially.

[Tom Bacsanyi]

That's all fake crap used to discriminate against people that they don't want.  I remember when a club said that they wanted me and my wife to come in for an interview and I refused because I wasn't telling my wife I was joining they let me in on the spot.
Same thing with this so-called UK model.  You can play anywhere you want in the US if you have enough game to make the kind of money it takes to play.  If you don't, join the Outpost.  How many courses does one golfer need?

Awesome post.  You not wanting your wife to know was probably WHY THEY LET YOU IN!

As for me, I'm part of Generation TW (ages 11 or so to 17 or so in 1997, otherwise would not have become golfers but saw Tiger dismantle Augusta and took up the game shortly thereafter).  For many of us, life is starting to really get in the way of playing the game (kids, jobs, etc.) but not me.  I work at a course to accommodate my addiction.  Here are some opinions (opinions are like assholes...):

1)  I thought the original article would have been impressive if written by a fifth grader but alas they put the old codger's picture up.

2)  I believe the game of golf isn't growing, or dying, but is cyclically adjusting.  Most leisure industries are very volatile like this (see boat sales).

3)  The equipment industry and related have the most to lose and their desperation is really becoming quite pathetic.  The LEAD topic of the last "In Play with Jimmy Roberts" was counterfeit equipment!  This is July, in the middle of golf season, in between the last two majors, and you come up with COUNTERFEIT GOLF EQUIPMENT as your lead story?  That show and any "journalists" involved can be dismissed as a thinly veiled infomercial and shills respectively.

4)  Golf course maintenance practices have become absurd.  Focusing on the wrong things, wrong philosophy, chasing the wrong look, wasting money, water, etc. etc.  This is the industry in which I am currently employed.  

5)  The coming years will be painful, but golf will certainly survive.  What we will be left with may be a better game/industry then we are looking at now. It will have to be.  Golf is certainly in a better place than bowling (damning with faint praise?) and my other industry of employment: skiing (growing, but climate issues loom massively).  

[Josh Tarble]

As for me, I'm part of Generation TW (ages 11 or so to 17 or so in 1997, otherwise would not have become golfers but saw Tiger dismantle Augusta and took up the game shortly thereafter).  For many of us, life is starting to really get in the way of playing the game (kids, jobs, etc.) but not me.  I work at a course to accommodate my addiction.  Here are some opinions (opinions are like assholes...):

1)  I thought the original article would have been impressive if written by a fifth grader but alas they put the old codger's picture up.

2)  I believe the game of golf isn't growing, or dying, but is cyclically adjusting.  Most leisure industries are very volatile like this (see boat sales).

3)  The equipment industry and related have the most to lose and their desperation is really becoming quite pathetic.  The LEAD topic of the last "In Play with Jimmy Roberts" was counterfeit equipment!  This is July, in the middle of golf season, in between the last two majors, and you come up with COUNTERFEIT GOLF EQUIPMENT as your lead story?  That show and any "journalists" involved can be dismissed as a thinly veiled infomercial and shills respectively.

4)  Golf course maintenance practices have become absurd.  Focusing on the wrong things, wrong philosophy, chasing the wrong look, wasting money, water, etc. etc.  This is the industry in which I am currently employed.  

5)  The coming years will be painful, but golf will certainly survive.  What we will be left with may be a better game/industry then we are looking at now. It will have to be.  Golf is certainly in a better place than bowling (damning with faint praise?) and my other industry of employment: skiing (growing, but climate issues loom massively).  

Great post Tom, and I agree with everything you said here.  Especially the two I've highlighted.  People need to realize less people are playing because there are less young people than before.  Part of golf's boom period was cause because of the boomer generation.

I mean this in no offense to the people that are doing good in the industry, and I know there are many...but I've never seen an industry where incompetent people are continually put in charge and bad ideas are continually recycled and spewed as genius.  If they really wanted the golf industry to get back to booming they'd put some practical changes in place for manufacturers, agronomy, country clubs and all down the line.  

[Ted Cahill]

I agree that the most accurate observation of golf is that it is going through a "cyclical adjustment".  Was there even a there, there- when the industry built all those courses in the past 20 years?  The same courses closing up now.  You have to wonder if the predicted demand was pure wishful thinking.  Golf is niche.  Those that love it, love it.  There is enough of us to maintain the sport, culture, ect...  We could give a damn about manufactuer's over heated sales projections falling short.  

[Dave Doxey]

Hey, take it easy on bad-mouthing bowling.

Compared to golf, I find that one can get approximately the same score, while losing fewer balls

[BCowan]

To say something was lost is to assume it was once found. Golf never had them; they view golf as their grand pa's game and they are not impressed with acres and acres of perfect landscaping and uniform green grass, they grew up with that.

15" cups isn't going to get them either. Turn golf into part game, part hike, part exploration, and you'll get some of their attention.

Sort of what is was like before we perfected it.

and golf is not a game of perfect

rarely do you win in golf particularly if play medal play, which in itself is an entirely self defeating concept

if you play match play, like horse in BB, then you have fun, it's an adventure!

the growth of the game via the total score concept was sheer suicide yet we watch the pros play for other peoples money with that concept every week

  I totally disagree with that statement.  It is ''Medal play'' is so uncool.  Golf experiences growth from time to time regardless of what form you are playing.  Most people I have known like to try and shoot less from round to round, and love challenging themselves to do better than their prior personal best.  They are playing the golf course.  A walk in the park, yet they are competing.  golf is inner in a way.  

what you are saying is convoluted/complicated that you leave no doubt as to why golf is tanking

like I said the concept of actually scoring better in medal play is so self defeating for most people particularly for those I don't know or play golf, why would they play at all??

People try golf for many reasons.  It is a difficult sport and people attracted to challenging sports are more prone to try them.  If you honestly think whether someone plays match play or Stroke play while there learning is influencing the decline in golf, well that is beyond idiotic.  A beginner is trying to get the ball in the air.  The whole artificial increase in golf was tied in with the housing market.  people weren't working, they were leveraging.  Hence more people were playing golf more free time they thought they had.  Golf isn't tanking, it is completely fine.  

 ''Well said.  There is tremendous opportunity for those looking for it.  And if the current state of the industry results in a reformation of the way the industry is structured here in the US, I don't see that as being a bad thing.  I hold out some hope (maybe wildly optimistic) that we will see a gradual trend toward the UK/Australia model of golf clubs.''

    Amen for common sense!

[William_G]

To say something was lost is to assume it was once found. Golf never had them; they view golf as their grand pa's game and they are not impressed with acres and acres of perfect landscaping and uniform green grass, they grew up with that.

15" cups isn't going to get them either. Turn golf into part game, part hike, part exploration, and you'll get some of their attention.

Sort of what is was like before we perfected it.

and golf is not a game of perfect

rarely do you win in golf particularly if play medal play, which in itself is an entirely self defeating concept

if you play match play, like horse in BB, then you have fun, it's an adventure!

the growth of the game via the total score concept was sheer suicide yet we watch the pros play for other peoples money with that concept every week

  I totally disagree with that statement.  It is ''Medal play'' is so uncool.  Golf experiences growth from time to time regardless of what form you are playing.  Most people I have known like to try and shoot less from round to round, and love challenging themselves to do better than their prior personal best.  They are playing the golf course.  A walk in the park, yet they are competing.  golf is inner in a way.  

what you are saying is convoluted/complicated that you leave no doubt as to why golf is tanking

like I said the concept of actually scoring better in medal play is so self defeating for most people particularly for those I don't know or play golf, why would they play at all??

People try golf for many reasons.  It is a difficult sport and people attracted to challenging sports are more prone to try them.  If you honestly think whether someone plays match play or Stroke play while there learning is influencing the decline in golf, well that is beyond idiotic.  A beginner is trying to get the ball in the air.  The whole artificial increase in golf was tied in with the housing market.  people weren't working, they were leveraging.  Hence more people were playing golf more free time they thought they had.  Golf isn't tanking, it is completely fine.  

 ''Well said.  There is tremendous opportunity for those looking for it.  And if the current state of the industry results in a reformation of the way the industry is structured here in the US, I don't see that as being a bad thing.  I hold out some hope (maybe wildly optimistic) that we will see a gradual trend toward the UK/Australia model of golf clubs.''

    Amen for common sense!

lol. beyond idiotic, I've reached a new level

[Brent Hutto]

I have reached Ludicrous Speed myself. I've gone PLAID!

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