Tommy, happy to talk about the 9th too.
Regarding the second shot, under firm and fast conditions short is problematic to any pin other than way back. Your third shot, you have to try to get past the mounds to land it on a flattish spot and take courage to spin it hard enough to keep it on the green. Left and right are problems, period. Almost certainly an awkward lie and as you say the mounds have to be negotiated: avoid or use, where to land, etc. Complicating those decisions, the green is not at all wide. If you can "miss" long that's usually best, but easier said than done - and very unlikely in a SE wind.
Trying to use the mound right of the short bunker feels like an insanely low percentage shot. A little short and you're in the bunker. To your point though if you can over club and aim right then the short miss puts you in good shape.
Downwind I have been trying to put it down the left rough or fairway. Second shot play down the left, using enough club to take the bunker out of play. Actually, I have been challenging the rushes on the left under those conditions as a solid drive gives an decent angle to the green, ie takes the bunker out of play. Get lucky and the ball stops just off the back off the green in putter country (green is impossible to hold). A left miss seems to leave about a 1 in 3 chance for birdie.
Upwind is a whole nuther story. Out to the right, even right rough, is the play. Then as said, aim down the right and cross fingers.
Great hole!