Total Rounds Down In US - Reason to worry?

[Declan Kavanagh]

Hey GCAers-

I've been seeing a lot of headlines about the TaylorMade CEO and members or the PGA and USGA being worried about the golf industry as a whole.  I'm not trying to be a doomsdayer here but I just wanted to hear some thoughts on what you guys think about the future of golf in the states mainly over the next 10-25-50 years.  The idea of a 15" cup is horrifying to me but on the other hand I do understand how hard golf is for many people, especially those who can't afford it or find it too challenging from the onset. 

Would love to hear your thoughts.

[John Kavanaugh]

D,

You have been around great courses your entire life.  What are the odds of you someday putting down two months salary after taxes as an initiation fee?  I just don't see enough joiners left in the world to sustain golf for the weekend player.  

[Declan Kavanagh]

JK-

I don't think the elite and exclusive courses will suffer but I get the feeling that too many courses were built before 9/11 and now there just is not enough demand to keep all of them in business, let alone allow more courses to be built. 

I'm 29 and have roughly 20 golf buddies in Chicago and most of them are 'die-hard'.  My friends who play 1-5 rounds a year are the ones who I could see leaving the game all together as our generation gets further addicted to cell phones and other things that give you instant gratification. 

I see the cost and time investment as the biggest hurdle though.  I can't think of anything that takes as long as golf in my life.  I went to an NBA game this year and it felt like an eternity, same with the NFL.  It just worries me since golf is my life.  I can't imagine a massive negative impact on the game over the course of my life as some people are predicting.  I hope it is a phase and some of the efforts to get more millenials to play golf will help.

[Matthew Lloyd]

I think this is definitely a cause for concern.  I'm 37 and don't play nearly as much as I'd like, probably only 20-25 rounds per year.  And that's usually all done over a few days at a time on golf-specific trips.  I just don't see a lot of guys between 25-40 playing golf consistently.  Perhaps we're all working hard or don't have the disposable income yet, but the popularity of the game is definitely trending downward from my point of view.

My theory is that it simply costs too much, especially given how awful the economy has been.  There are some very average courses that charge upwards of $75, and it's just not worth it.  I'd rather spend $1.5K on a single trip to Bandon or Monterey and play great courses than play 6.5 hour rounds on a crowded, over-priced local course. 

I'm guessing that any high-level club in a big city will do just fine.  But otherwise I think the future of golf is with remote destination courses that cater to the die hard golfer.  I just don't know if there is anything to be gained from trying to win over the average retail golfer -- it's just too hard to get them to stick with it. Especially with over-priced 6.5 hour rounds.

[John Kavanaugh]

I have a 29 and an 18 year old son.  I think the 29 year old may have gotten out just in time as he was around 12 when Tiger won his first Masters and parents started to go nuts.  By the time my youngest son turned 12 the idea of children playing just for the love of the game was long gone.  Of course AAU basketball and concussions in football haven't helped the pure sports either.  Golf is stupid and unless you get bit young you just know better. 

I can only imagine how technology and depravity are going to change the world in the next 15 years doing even more damage to golf.  Even something so seemingly harmless as Viagra is cutting down on the number of rounds played by my generation.  Who could have seen that coming?

Golf as we know it is dead now.  In 30 years it will be modern day bowling at best.

[Tom_Doak]

My take is that there is more interest than ever in good courses and flagging interest in average golf.  That means there are lots of average courses that will eventually close ... unless they can find a way to be considered above average.  That should keep some architects busy, even as the total number of golf courses declines over the next decade.

[Sean_A]

My take is that there is more interest than ever in good courses and flagging interest in average golf.  That means there are lots of average courses that will eventually close ... unless they can find a way to be considered above average.  That should keep some architects busy, even as the total number of golf courses declines over the next decade.

Thats how it is for me except I am finding it harder and harder to find reasonably priced good golf.  What is happening is that good golf is being charged like very good golf used to be 10 years ago.  That doesn't mean I will start playing average courses more, just that I will play less golf and seek out deals more often.  That is certainly the case these past few years - I reckon my annual games have dropped by 15ish rounds and I am less willing to take chances on playing courses I am not sure about. 

Ciao   

[Chris DeToro]

This should concern.  I fear that golf is quickly becoming irrelevant to many people because of cost, time and competing interests.  As much as many people, myself included, bash some of the things people are trying to grow the game, at least they're trying

[Mike_Young]

As the population increases golf will grow even if the percentages remain the same or possibly drop a little.  IMHO the courses that have the most issues with play are the ones which were built for home lots and are surrounded by housing.  They seem to have amenities such as clubhouses and pool etc that just can't be operated as well.  JMO

[Jason Topp]

Yearly rounds are strongly affected by weather so the round report for any single year should be viewed through that lens.  A couple of years ago rounds were up, but that was a sign of good weather rather than a rebounding industry.

Nonetheless, total rounds are declining as a general trend.  I think it  should worry equipment manufacturers and others in the industry to worry.  They need to innovate or improve to survive in a shrinking market just like all businesses in other markets that are shrinking or rapidly changing.

For people that just play the game, I think ultimately it will be a benefit.  The game is simply too much fun to disappear any time soon.  The quality of the average golf course built today is vastly superior to the average golf course built 20 years ago.  Prices are much more reasonable unless the facility is offering something truly outstanding and therefore has earned the right to charge for it.  Economic pressure will eventually punish those facilities that make stupid economic decisions that drive up the cost of the game.

Courses and clubs that excel with their product will survive and get stronger.  Others will need to improve their product to remain in business.  In the meantime, there is downward pressure on the price of golf and it is easy to get a tee time when traveling.

[noonan]

I work harder at my business than I ever had.

To spend 5 hours behind slow golfers is agonizing.

I bet I only play 10 times this year - down from 170 in the late 90's

[noonan]

Bowling is my business and we are still doing ok.

[Matthew Rose]

I can't afford it anymore. Neither can my parents, or my siblings, or many others in my family. We just don't have disposable income anymore. I pay twice what I used to for groceries, gas, health care, utilities, insurance, and I have less houehold income.

Used to play 30-40 rounds a year.... now it's 10-12.

[Tony_Muldoon]

So like the rest of you I’m playing a bit less and the pattern of my playing has changed. No surprises there, surely the way it’s always been as reflecting the demographic of this group.  I can’t see my rounds going back up until I get to some form of retirement.


Much harder to determine how many rounds the ten year younger versions of ourselves will play in future, as that’s the group that are getting to play less now. The curve downwards may become much sharper.


Europe is apparently showing slight growth but UK&I down for the 6th straight year?
http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/golf/future-uncertain-for-european-golf-market-1.1777764

[Mike_Young]

Nothing is destroying public golf as much as GolfNow....

[BCowan]

One reason people enjoy private golf is due to pace of play being faster.  If 10-15% of failing private clubs can transform into low key operations, golf in the US would improve immensely.  Living in reality, I don't see it happening.   "It's the economy, Stupid'' 

[Bill_McBride]

As the population increases golf will grow even if the percentages remain the same or possibly drop a little.  IMHO the courses that have the most issues with play are the ones which were built for home lots and are surrounded by housing.  They seem to have amenities such as clubhouses and pool etc that just can't be operated as well.  JMO

What kind of clubhouse are you going to build at Longshadow?

[noonan]

Nothing is destroying public golf as much as GolfNow....

This is true - they are giving golf away!

[A.G._Crockett]

It would be shocking if the number of rounds was NOT down; to me, this is a VERY simple demographic issue that was predictable and not likely to reverse anytime soon.

The golf boom was fueled in large part by the baby boomers taking up the game in large numbers as they/we aged out of other sports.  It isn't accidental that the tennis boom came first and then golf followed as participation in sports like tennis began to decline.  We are now on the cusp of the boomers playing less golt, though, for reasons of health, fixed incomes, and (sigh) mortality rates.

Golf requires lots of time and lots of disposable income.  There simply isn't a pool of people with those two things available to replace the boomers as they age out of the game.

[Keith Grande]

I can see US private clubs adopting the UK & Australia models in the future.  More memberships at a lower price point, allowing "visitor" play to remain viable.

[RJ_Daley]

I think Chris DeToro, Matthew Rose, and BCowen, all have touched the central and interconnected point which is, the economic impediments.  Chris's, cost, time and competing interests; Matthew's, lament of the American middleclass reality of rising cost of living to shrinking disposable income; and B's, it's the economy stupid are all interconnected by one central point, the growth of golf via rounds able to be played due to cost.  

This GCA group is probably not a good cross section of the demographic that golf must rely on to grow or stay relevant.  Many are reasonably well off and not near the edge of an income level that balances their decision on playing more or less golf, unless in the pursuit of big money you simply decide you want to prioritize chasing more money than you really need to be applied to a recreational choice like golf.  Hard working people under 50 see their disposable income needing to be re-prioritized to other living demands and recreation goes out the window.  The wealth-income tipping point is getting ever higher, and the ability of the working person to afford golf in money and time diverted to make enough to ease up and enjoy is getting more restricted.  And, the process is a slow creep.  I don't think it is coincidental that new economic studies show that the U.S. per capita wealth standard is falling behind other countries, most recently Canada.  Having just seen Australia and New Zealand, I'd like to know what the per capita wealth standard to golf participation number of rounds direction they are taking.  I don't know, but I suspect golf and per capita wealth/income is growing there faster than U.S. and they still have time and income to play golf and recreate in general, more.  That is strictly observational and I have no stats to demonstrate the impression.  

The only demographic golf has a chance to grow vis-a-vis financial ability to play is in the near or already retired sector, IMHO.  But.... the number of rounds in that sector have a force weighing against sustained growth because the old geezers are simply physically failing and the natural aging process is a counter-current to growth of rounds on a scale that disposable income and time allow a full potential of growth of rounds.  I always remember Mark McCormick saying to GCSAA-and GCOA; 'every time you see a hearst go by, you are loosing market'.  

I personally suspect that there is a factor that allows wealth per-capita to be growing in several countries like Canada vis-a-vis the US and may lead to more rounds being played there rather than shrinking rounds here, but we don't want to get into a political/economic discussion now, do we?  
 

[Lou_Duran]

It would be shocking if the number of rounds was NOT down; to me, this is a VERY simple demographic issue that was predictable and not likely to reverse anytime soon.

The golf boom was fueled in large part by the baby boomers taking up the game in large numbers as they/we aged out of other sports.  It isn't accidental that the tennis boom came first and then golf followed as participation in sports like tennis began to decline.  We are now on the cusp of the boomers playing less golt, though, for reasons of health, fixed incomes, and (sigh) mortality rates.

Golf requires lots of time and lots of disposable income.  There simply isn't a pool of people with those two things available to replace the boomers as they age out of the game.

If I am not mistaken, much of the NGF growth projections in the 1980s and early '90s was predicated on the Boomers reaching retirement age and having both time and financial resources to play more golf.  You might also remember the argument that as technology and automation developed, less work would be required and people would have more leisure.

With near-zero returns on safe investments, employment retrenchment in the private sector, and constant attacks by the government on wealth, these old folks aren't thinking much about their next golf game.  Instead they worry that their life's work will be eaten away by higher medical costs, inflation, and the likelihood of higher taxes.  Outliving their resources is a major preoccupation; golf is seen as an unnecessary luxury.

The three retirement communities with golf courses in the Dallas area are doing very well, but the courses are open to the public, in part because of excess capacity, but also because their HOAs don't wish to assume ownership liability.  Several of the residential-oriented private clubs are also in excellent shape financially.   

[Mike_Young]

- Georgia was one of a handful of states that, despite having fewer days open for golf, had an increase in rounds played (from 2013 – 2014; March).  Georgia saw a 1.1% increase in total rounds played, despite having a day and a ½ (5.3 %) less available for play.

other key notes
 
·         March 2014 rounds played were down 3.5% and days open were down 5.5% compared to March 2013, based on paired data. This March had the lowest number of days open and the lowest number of rounds played since PerformanceTrak's inception.
 
·         A total of 19 states reported rounds played increases for the month of March, even though most of these experienced a cooler month than usual. This was the coldest March since 2002.
 
·         YTD March 2014 rounds played were down 4.7% and days open were down 12.1%. Despite weather’s impact, YTD March 2014 rounds played per day open ranked 2nd highest in the last nine years (80.2 rounds per days open).
 
·         Nationally, there were 5.1 fewer days open YTD 2014 versus YTD 2013.

[Mike Bowen]

At risk of sounding like a wing nut, I think the "business" of golf is hurting golf.  Too many decisions are made for the sole purpose of a financial return today.  Many of these decisions have a negative long term effect.

GolfNow = great today, fewer courses tomorrow.

New, Newer, and Newest Equipment = Short term sales and many long term issues.

So many industry folk talk about doing things for the health of the game but I feel like their talking out of the side of their mouth.  If all of these people were actually doing things for the long term health of the game, the game wouldn't be in trouble.

[Doug Siebert]

The problem is economic, but I think the golf industry needs to look in the mirror, not try to deflect blame onto the economy.  I'm not saying that the stagnation in real wages for the large majority of the population for the past three decades has no effect, but the price of golf - both equipment and greens fees - has been going up faster than the rate of inflation for a long time.  That's simply not sustainable, and the chickens are finally coming home to roost.

It will be painful, but after a bunch of courses close and equipment makers close/merge, golf will come out of it stronger and leaner - back to basics, or at least a helluva lot closer than they were with the excesses of $200 CCFADs with 1/2" emerald green fairways and golfers mindlessly buying a new $400 driver every other year.  Isn't that what we as GCAers want to see?  We don't have to like the pain it will inflict on those who work in the industry on the way to getting there, but we should like the result.

Does it really matter if there are fewer active golfers in the future?  There are a lot of crappy courses out there that no one will miss.  It isn't as if anyone is going to plow under Pine Valley along the way.